The Case For and Against Tagging Keenum
Speculation will only increase from here on
out now that NFL teams can start tagging their own players prior to free
agency. This is when we will see teams start to lay the first card from their
off-season hands, revealing their intentions. The Vikings like every other NFL
team have to decide whether a player warrants the hefty monetary commitment via
the tag vs. working a long-term extension or walking away all-together. All
things equal the Vikings are fortunate to only have one realistic target for
the tag, quarterback Case Keenum. But there is a lot more to this decision than
meets the eye. Here is the Case to tag or not to tag Keenum (sorry I had to).
Option
1: The Franchise Tag (Non-Exclusive) - If the Vikings want to see Keenum lead
the offense again in 2018 to prove his play in 2017, the franchise tag is a one
year $23.1M option. The largest benefit to the tag is that the Vikings would
know Keenum is a Vikings in 2018 and the team would not be committed past this
year if he regresses without Pat Shurmur. It's easy to argue that Case isn't
worth $23.1M, but the flexibility of a one-year deal has additional value
associated with it. Compared to the market Case's play was also in-line with
Alex Smith who signed a multi-year extension worth $23.5M a year. Once again
throw the consistency of both QB's out the window and $23.1M isn't an
unreasonable number. Now there is the bad. The Vikings are learning first hand
that having QB's on expiring deals is tricky business. Players aren't going to
give teams significant discounts when they're this close to reaching free
agency. If Case performs well again next season the Vikings are right back to
this point again. The issue is that they are now in the Kirk Cousins cycle
where the franchise tag becomes 120% of the previous years salary. That makes a
second tag for Keenum $28.2M. Not only
would have make a second tag unlikely, but an extension that much tougher. The
player has all the leverage to suggest receiving at least $28M in cash during
the first year of the deal. Add in potential feelings the Vikings lacked
commitment and there isn't a ton of room to expect Keenum to sign a team
friendly deal.
Option
2: The Transition Tag - If the Vikings aren't entirely sure if they want to tag
Keenum exclusively or are having trouble gauging a fair market deal, the
transition tag becomes an option. The transition tag is a one year $20.9M deal
that isn't often used. Under the transition tag the player can negotiate with
any other team and come to terms on a long-term contract extension. Upon
signing with another team the Vikings would have 7 days to match the deal as
signed or decide to walk away. The ability to match is attractive since it
assures you if matched you won't be left high and dry. The negative is that the
agreed upon deal will not be team friendly (it's designed so you don't match
it). Although unlikely another potential positive to the transition tag is
that'd it would likely buy the Vikings time to renounce the tag if they found
an alternative on the market. You can renounce the tag without any
repercussions until it is signed. Case and his agent would prefer a long-term
deal so signing the tag immediately doesn't make much sense. In a nutshell the
transition tag only makes sense if the Vikings and Case can't figure out his
market value and the Vikings want some control over the situation. There are
times players will let teams match an outside deal but if the Vikings have
doubt Keenum would give them that right, tagging him in this fashion makes some
sense.
Option
3: A Long-term Extension - Last but not least is finding middle ground and
signing Case of a 3-year deal in the range of $57M ($19M/yr). An extension is
beneficial for Case since it takes the pressure to perform on a one year deal
away. From a team standpoint it gets you away from a second tag and the
guaranteed money in years 2 & 3 would likely be light. You could get out of
the deal relatively painlessly in the future. The major con here is that Case
will likely want to test the FA market to see if he could get a deal in excess
of $19M/yr. As eluded to, players typically want to hit the marketplace at this
point barring a team overpay. If that happens there is no guarantee Keenum will
find a contract he likes elsewhere without looking back. The chance the Vikings
would be left with no QB would be real.
Everyone
can come to their own conclusions on what will happen based on the above. My
hunch is that the Vikings will end up franchising Keenum for $23.1M only if they
don't believe they have a legitimate shot in the Kirk Cousins contest and Bridgewater intends to walk. On the
tag the Vikings could rest assured they have a QB and continue to work a
long-term extension through mid-July to keep Keenum happy. The nice thing in
that scenario is that the external market pressure would be relieved.
So you think it's between Keenum and Cousins and they have moved on from Bridgewater and Bradford?
@"BsuZagVike" said: So you think it's between Keenum and Cousins and they have moved on from Bridgewater and Bradford?No. But they're aren't going to re-sign Bridgewater or Bradford as the unquestioned starter.
Nice post, Guru. Thanks for the explanations with the tag options. I might be in a minority, but I think Case earned your option 3 proposal. The OLine let him down in that Philly game, and the D couldn't stop them anyway. I don't blame Case for not getting the team to the SB. Case played way above expectations, and proved he's a gamer and team leader that can win big games. The Vikes have a bunch of areas on the D and Oline they can improve on that will also help the QB position no matter who the starter is.
One Case signs the transition tag then it is guaranteed right? Would the only option be to trade him after that point?
@"MarkSP18" said: One Case signs the transition tag then it is guaranteed right? Would the only option be to trade him after that point?
Both the franchise and transition tags are fully guaranteed when signed. But there isn't a signing bonus portion so you can trade the deals with no dead money. But you're correct that you cannot trade a player until they sign the tag.
Guru, any compensation if Option #2 is used and he negotiates elsewhere and we don't match?
@"Ralphie" said: Guru, any compensation if Option #2 is used and he negotiates elsewhere and we don't match?You'd lose all right to any compensatory pick if you opted to not match. So another downside to the transition tag.
Thanks Geoff. Maybe it's just me but it seemed that Case faded toward the end of the year. It just scares me that he may really fall off without Schurmer. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision. I just hope that somehow they can find a long term answer, whomever it may be. They could use the consistency.
DeFillipo might be a better OC than Shurmur, so it's possible that Case could be even better this year. But I don't know if I believe that will happen. We may not be willing to sign Teddy to be the starter... but I hope we re-sign him. I'm curious to see how high his ceiling could be with the offensive weapons that we have now.
Very informative, Guru. I don't think it would be smart for the Vikings to exercise the tag on any of their QBs. If Cousins gets too expensive, the Vikings need to pick one of Teddy, Bradford, or Keenum and commit to them with a multi-year contract. You can make a case for any of the four options... the worst decision would be to continue to punt this down the road in my opinion.
@"pumpf" said: DeFillipo might be a better OC than Shurmur, so it's possible that Case could be even better this year. But I don't know if I believe that will happen. We may not be willing to sign Teddy to be the starter... but I hope we re-sign him. I'm curious to see how high his ceiling could be with the offensive weapons that we have now.Agree. I wouldn't hate bringing Case back on a tag, or short-term deal, as long as we're able to keep Teddy Bridgewater. But how does that even work? You pay Case, what, $18-20M, and he competes with Teddy in camp? If Teddy's fully healthy it's hard to see Case winning a head to head camp battle. And then you're wasting $20M on, what, peace of mind?
I'd be surprised if a team on the verge of a championship, after stating that it wants the offense to be more explosive, adds two QB whisperers, then puts it all in the hands of such a limited QB. How does that sync when you can have BOTH franchise-hopeful Teddy Bridgewater and former #1 overall pick Sam Bradford whom Flip called " the most accurate, pure passer I’ve ever coached" for the same cost?
I have no clue what the Vikings are going to do, but if it were up to me, the debate would be about either Teddy and Sam, or Kirk Cousins and a free agent. Keenum would not be in the picture.
I don't know how we could keep both Case and Teddy. If by some miracle we convinced both of them to stay and compete for the starter's job, how would we pay them? I mean in order to keep Case supposedly he may command over 20 mil. There's no way Teddy would sign for a lesser amount than Case and that's because I have to believe that in Teddy's mind he'd win that camp competition (and I honestly think he would, too). He isn't going to be the starter and get paid backup money. And, conversely, I'm sure Case wouldn't want to back up Teddy. Both guys are going to want to be the starter.
Geoff, I know you already said in this thread that the team won't guarantee the starter's job to either Teddy or Sam. If we don't resign Case and we don't enter the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes, wouldn't that then guarantee either Teddy or Sam as starter for 2018 if we sign either one of them? If neither are guaranteed the job, who (if not Case or Cousins) would be any kind of competition for the starting job for Sam or Teddy? The only way I can see not guaranteeing either of them the job would be if we resigned both of them. But why in the world would Sam and Teddy agree to a camp competition against each other?
Just going on what we know about the Vikings not signing Teddy or Sam as unquestioned starter, that leads me to believe we're going to be either retaining Case as the starter (by virtue of tag or an actual long-term deal) or we are indeed getting in the Cousins sweepstakes. It makes sense in light of Sam and Teddy's injuries and the uncertainty that those injuries create, but at this point if we let Teddy go then I'm all for going after Cousins.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"pumpf" said: DeFillipo might be a better OC than Shurmur, so it's possible that Case could be even better this year. But I don't know if I believe that will happen. We may not be willing to sign Teddy to be the starter... but I hope we re-sign him. I'm curious to see how high his ceiling could be with the offensive weapons that we have now. Agree. I wouldn't hate bringing Case back on a tag, or short-term deal, as long as we're able to keep Teddy Bridgewater. But how does that even work? You pay Case, what, $18-20M, and he competes with Teddy in camp? If Teddy's fully healthy it's hard to see Case winning a head to head camp battle. And then you're wasting $20M on, what, peace of mind?I'd be surprised if a team on the verge of a championship, after stating that it wants the offense to be more explosive, adds two QB whisperers, then puts it all in the hands of such a limited QB. How does that sync when you can have BOTH franchise-hopeful Teddy Bridgewater and former #1 overall pick Sam Bradford whom Flip called " the most accurate, pure passer I’ve ever coached" for the same cost?
I have no clue what the Vikings are going to do, but if it were up to me, the debate would be about either Teddy and Sam, or Kirk Cousins and a free agent. Keenum would not be in the picture.
MB, I don't agree with you that Teddy is ahead of Keenum when he hasn't had any meaningful playing time in two seasons to prove your take. None of us on this board are in a position to make that decision based on the uncertainty of Teddy and Bradford's health. If Sam's doesn't really have a bone on bone issue per the reports last season that said he did, and his knee procedure fixed the problem, what makes you think that he would want to be a backup when there are plenty of QB hungry teams that need a body? Teddy isn't going to backup anyone either unless that decision is out of his control and his contract tolls for 2018. If he is a free agent, someone will sign him to be their starter. I don't see any situation where we get to keep 2 of the 3 QB's on the roster last season unless the Toll happens.As far as Case goes, if Teddy's tolling issue isn't resolved by the time free agency begins, I don't think we have a choice but to protect ourselves and use one of the tags on Keenum. It would be foolish for us to not exert some control of Case's contract situation vs. letting all three hit the open market potentially leaving you with nothing. That's what scares me with going after Cousins and if you fail to secure his services while the other 3 sign deals elsewhere.
Sometimes with all the different takes I read my mind wonders if there's absolutely any possibility that the team throws a real curve ball here and resigns Sam. Until I hear it otherwise from Rick or Zim, I am starting to wonder if Sam could be the dark horse choice. I think the team wants Teddy but isn't willing to pay him big money. I think that leaves them with their other "known" that they probably envisioned a long-term future with which is Sam. Obviously, the team has the info on the health of both Sam and Teddy that we do not. Could that knee really not be as bad as we all think it is? And what about Teddy's knee? In the history of the NFL, has a player at any position ever came back from Teddy's kind of injury to have the kind of career we're all hoping he'll have, one that would take us to the "promised land" of a SB championship??
I say we pick a name out of a hat because no matter who gets to be next years QB there's going to be a ton of questions and second guessing. Thank God I'm not Rick lol. His career might very well be riding on 2 unhealthy knees and/or a question mark of a one year wonder.
@"AGRforever" said: I say we pick a name out of a hat because no matter who gets to be next years QB there's going to be a ton of questions and second guessing. Thank God I'm not Rick lol. His career might very well be riding on 2 unhealthy knees and/or a question mark of a one year wonder.
Don't go feeling too bad for Rick Spielman. The man is collecting some very very very nice paychecks to make these decisions.
If we sign Case, we're clearly "married" to him as the starter. There's no way (as MB pointed out above) that we can sign him... and then have an open competition for the starter job. I don't think we can just hand it to Teddy... unless we ALSO sign Sam (to be the back-up... and/or compete with Teddy). On the other hand, we can sign Cousins- and make him the obvious starter. But will Teddy sign on to be a back-up to him? Sam might. I don't think Sam's gonna be signed to start anywhere... maybe Teddy won't either. As I see it, our choices are:
1) Sign Case... and have Sam or Teddy as the #2.
2) Sign Cousins... and have Sam or Teddy as the #2.
3) Keep Teddy and Sam and have them battle it out in TC.
Cousins should be the choice if they can work a deal with him. Otherwise the franchise that just went 13-3 and got to the NFCC is saying let's gamble on Teddy's many questions marks, or Sam's health problems/knees, or Case not regressing to the mean, etc.
The team should be in win now mode, with the huge amount of cap space available--NOW is the time to go for SB championships and Cousins plus this defense means that window is open for several years to come. Any one of the other three is a roll of the dice. Or combo of 2 of the 3 which I have to imagine is what they want if they don't have the stones to reach for the mountaintop, which based on history is probably the reality of the situation anyway.
As far the op's post, well, people complain that Case isn't worth 23 mil which he isn't but you are paying for convenience as they say - the convenience of controlling him for a year and not having to shell out for a loaded long term deal that might bite your ass.
i would get them all in a room, offer multi year contracts to all 3 for what they are worth and tell them the first 2 that sign is our depth chart. Assuming all are healthy im thinking Sam about 20 per front loaded, Case 15 per, Teddy 15 per backloaded. All should have trade value in case you have to get rid of one
Cousins will get money he can't refuse from either the Jets or Broncos.
Minnesota will sign Case to a multi-year deal with an early out. He will regress into what I'm going to call Andy Dalton 2.0, good enough to get to the Playoffs, not good enough to get to the Super Bowl.
In a few years Minnesota will be looking to Draft a QB to compete with Sloter, who hasn't developed as much as the team would like.
If you look in your heart you know that this is the most likely outcome. And as Vikings fans we should be used to it by now but it will hurt any way. :(
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