The Case For and Against Tagging Keenum
Speculation will only increase from here on
out now that NFL teams can start tagging their own players prior to free
agency. This is when we will see teams start to lay the first card from their
off-season hands, revealing their intentions. The Vikings like every other NFL
team have to decide whether a player warrants the hefty monetary commitment via
the tag vs. working a long-term extension or walking away all-together. All
things equal the Vikings are fortunate to only have one realistic target for
the tag, quarterback Case Keenum. But there is a lot more to this decision than
meets the eye. Here is the Case to tag or not to tag Keenum (sorry I had to).
Option
1: The Franchise Tag (Non-Exclusive) - If the Vikings want to see Keenum lead
the offense again in 2018 to prove his play in 2017, the franchise tag is a one
year $23.1M option. The largest benefit to the tag is that the Vikings would
know Keenum is a Vikings in 2018 and the team would not be committed past this
year if he regresses without Pat Shurmur. It's easy to argue that Case isn't
worth $23.1M, but the flexibility of a one-year deal has additional value
associated with it. Compared to the market Case's play was also in-line with
Alex Smith who signed a multi-year extension worth $23.5M a year. Once again
throw the consistency of both QB's out the window and $23.1M isn't an
unreasonable number. Now there is the bad. The Vikings are learning first hand
that having QB's on expiring deals is tricky business. Players aren't going to
give teams significant discounts when they're this close to reaching free
agency. If Case performs well again next season the Vikings are right back to
this point again. The issue is that they are now in the Kirk Cousins cycle
where the franchise tag becomes 120% of the previous years salary. That makes a
second tag for Keenum $28.2M. Not only
would have make a second tag unlikely, but an extension that much tougher. The
player has all the leverage to suggest receiving at least $28M in cash during
the first year of the deal. Add in potential feelings the Vikings lacked
commitment and there isn't a ton of room to expect Keenum to sign a team
friendly deal.
Option
2: The Transition Tag - If the Vikings aren't entirely sure if they want to tag
Keenum exclusively or are having trouble gauging a fair market deal, the
transition tag becomes an option. The transition tag is a one year $20.9M deal
that isn't often used. Under the transition tag the player can negotiate with
any other team and come to terms on a long-term contract extension. Upon
signing with another team the Vikings would have 7 days to match the deal as
signed or decide to walk away. The ability to match is attractive since it
assures you if matched you won't be left high and dry. The negative is that the
agreed upon deal will not be team friendly (it's designed so you don't match
it). Although unlikely another potential positive to the transition tag is
that'd it would likely buy the Vikings time to renounce the tag if they found
an alternative on the market. You can renounce the tag without any
repercussions until it is signed. Case and his agent would prefer a long-term
deal so signing the tag immediately doesn't make much sense. In a nutshell the
transition tag only makes sense if the Vikings and Case can't figure out his
market value and the Vikings want some control over the situation. There are
times players will let teams match an outside deal but if the Vikings have
doubt Keenum would give them that right, tagging him in this fashion makes some
sense.
Option
3: A Long-term Extension - Last but not least is finding middle ground and
signing Case of a 3-year deal in the range of $57M ($19M/yr). An extension is
beneficial for Case since it takes the pressure to perform on a one year deal
away. From a team standpoint it gets you away from a second tag and the
guaranteed money in years 2 & 3 would likely be light. You could get out of
the deal relatively painlessly in the future. The major con here is that Case
will likely want to test the FA market to see if he could get a deal in excess
of $19M/yr. As eluded to, players typically want to hit the marketplace at this
point barring a team overpay. If that happens there is no guarantee Keenum will
find a contract he likes elsewhere without looking back. The chance the Vikings
would be left with no QB would be real.
Everyone
can come to their own conclusions on what will happen based on the above. My
hunch is that the Vikings will end up franchising Keenum for $23.1M only if they
don't believe they have a legitimate shot in the Kirk Cousins contest and Bridgewater intends to walk. On the
tag the Vikings could rest assured they have a QB and continue to work a
long-term extension through mid-July to keep Keenum happy. The nice thing in
that scenario is that the external market pressure would be relieved.
@"VikeMike52" said: Thanks Geoff. Maybe it's just me but it seemed that Case faded toward the end of the year. It just scares me that he may really fall off without Schurmer. I'm glad I don't have to make that decision. I just hope that somehow they can find a long term answer, whomever it may be. They could use the consistency.
I wonder if Keenum benefited from a form of "first time around" through the middle 2/3 of 2017. I know, he was not a rookie, NFL coaches had seen him before, but he had taken a step forward with Shurmur and was definitely better than in his earlier stints. But was it boosted by that freshness? I don't really fear Keenum falling back to the 54% passer he was in Houston, but I think he could fall back to 60% and more interceptions/TD.
All this talk of Case regressing to the mean doesn't make sense to me. What mean? He hasn't played enough games to have established a mean.
It's not like he's been around for 10 years and just had his first good year. Before this year, Teddy had started 28 games to Keenum's 24. But yet Teddy is still considered by some to be on this meteoric rise and franchise QB development path (after not playing for two years), while Case is going to suddenly implode and become the QB he was during his first 24 starts while on some terrible Rams and Texans teams.
First, Teddy was on some pretty damned talent poor Offenses too. And don't bring up AP. Case had Gurley last year and that didn't exactly lead to a career year.
Second, Case hit DBs in the hands about six times last year that didn't result in interceptions. Can't count on that again.
Third, he tends to lock onto receivers early instead of going through progressions, which Teddy was doing very well for a young QB. Teams now have a lot more tape on Keenum and will take advantage of that tendency.
Third, Diggs and Thielen were both. Top 5 in contested catches. Some were Case putting the ball in a spot where they could make a play....but far too many were pop flies that were the result of not having a strong arm or going for a home run while under pressure. That's not sustainable and not talking full advantage of having the best WR duo in the League. You need someone who can hit them in stride down the field to maximize YAC, not toss up one jump ball after another.
Finally, he's not a good game manager when you need him to be. The picks against Washington with a big lead. Taking sacks to knock the Offense out of FG range because he's holding the ball too long looking for the Hero Play instead of the smart play. Ignoring wide open checksowns on early downs to throw to guys who are covered.
Love the heart. Love how great a teammate he is. Love the shiftiness in the pocket. It's not enough to balance out the bad tendencies and shortcomings on a long term basis in my opinion.
Give me Kirk, healthy Sam, healthy Teddy or Case in that order. Which means as a cursed Vikings fan I'll be stuck with Case. And I will cheer hard for him while holding my breath expecting the worst.
im happy for how Case played, but i cannot get behind choosing him as qb going forward for anything like Guru stated. reading it made me realize how much we would be screwing up if we made any of those three choices.
id rather teddy for sure. sam also. id spend all the money on Cousins over Keenum.
heck, id probablly take tyrod taylor, mccarron, or maybe some other qbs over Case.
im also hard pressed to see anyone chase Case after all the other middle of the road qbs in free agency have panned the last few years. let him look for deal and if he wants give us a chance to match.
but man if we chase and settler on Case its an epic let down.
@"Geoff Nichols" said:Do you think there is any scenario where they sign both Bridgewater and Bradford and let them compete for the starting job?@"BsuZagVike" said: So you think it's between Keenum and Cousins and they have moved on from Bridgewater and Bradford? No. But they're aren't going to re-sign Bridgewater or Bradford as the unquestioned starter.
@"FSUVike" said: Cousins will get money he can't refuse from either the Jets or Broncos.Minnesota will sign Case to a multi-year deal with an early out. He will regress into what I'm going to call Andy Dalton 2.0, good enough to get to the Playoffs, not good enough to get to the Super Bowl.
In a few years Minnesota will be looking to Draft a QB to compete with Sloter, who hasn't developed as much as the team would like.
If you look in your heart you know that this is the most likely outcome. And as Vikings fans we should be used to it by now but it will hurt any way. :(
you forgot the part of Teddy and Sam both move on and find success. Sam has a lightning in a bottle season with Arizona and him and LFj hook up for a league leading 16 TDs and take the west and make it to the NFCCG... stay tuned.
meanwhile Teddy signs with... buffalo and give that team 10 good years where they become the dominant team in the north east part of the country.... Teddys Mom's pink Caddy has a bumber sticker that says F*#K Belicheat! and personalized plates that say Tomwho?.
and we sit around for another 20 years talking about the time we traded a dynasty for Hershel Walker, or passed on Warren Sapp.
Hey Olson..... Where the hell is the bang head emoji? :p
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"FSUVike" said: Cousins will get money he can't refuse from either the Jets or Broncos.Minnesota will sign Case to a multi-year deal with an early out. He will regress into what I'm going to call Andy Dalton 2.0, good enough to get to the Playoffs, not good enough to get to the Super Bowl.
In a few years Minnesota will be looking to Draft a QB to compete with Sloter, who hasn't developed as much as the team would like.
If you look in your heart you know that this is the most likely outcome. And as Vikings fans we should be used to it by now but it will hurt any way. :(
you forgot the part of Teddy and Sam both move on and find success. Sam has a lightning in a bottle season with Arizona and him and LFj hook up for a league leading 16 TDs and take the west and make it to the NFCCG... stay tuned.meanwhile Teddy signs with... buffalo and give that team 10 good years where they become the dominant team in the north east part of the country.... Teddys Mom's pink Caddy has a bumber sticker that says F*#K Belicheat! and personalized plates that say Tomwho?.
and we sit around for another 20 years talking about the time we traded a dynasty for Hershel Walker, or passed on Warren Sapp.
Hey Olson..... Where the hell is the bang head emoji? :p
I'm being an optimist and predicting that neither will pan out with another team ;)
@"FSUVike" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:@"FSUVike" said: Cousins will get money he can't refuse from either the Jets or Broncos.Minnesota will sign Case to a multi-year deal with an early out. He will regress into what I'm going to call Andy Dalton 2.0, good enough to get to the Playoffs, not good enough to get to the Super Bowl.
In a few years Minnesota will be looking to Draft a QB to compete with Sloter, who hasn't developed as much as the team would like.
If you look in your heart you know that this is the most likely outcome. And as Vikings fans we should be used to it by now but it will hurt any way. :(
you forgot the part of Teddy and Sam both move on and find success. Sam has a lightning in a bottle season with Arizona and him and LFj hook up for a league leading 16 TDs and take the west and make it to the NFCCG... stay tuned.meanwhile Teddy signs with... buffalo and give that team 10 good years where they become the dominant team in the north east part of the country.... Teddys Mom's pink Caddy has a bumber sticker that says F*#K Belicheat! and personalized plates that say Tomwho?.
and we sit around for another 20 years talking about the time we traded a dynasty for Hershel Walker, or passed on Warren Sapp.
Hey Olson..... Where the hell is the bang head emoji? :p
I'm being an optimist and predicting that neither will pan out with another team ;)
well you know our last few QBs that left are sporting superbowl rings... sure they werent active contributors, but they got rings and guys like Greenway and Brob that stayed here and played do not. :#
at least with case we have a dude with two healthy knees. yall that want to start teddy are nuts. theres a dang good chance that hes never the same let alone improves upon where he was.
@"AGRforever" said: at least with case we have a dude with two healthy knees. yall that want to start teddy are nuts. theres a dang good chance that hes never the same let alone improves upon where he was.Yeah, WTF does Sugarman and the surgeons know.... and by the way IIRC Case blew a knee in college.
The reality is Teddy can not make the majority of the intermediate-deep throws that Sam made against the Saints, and has never produced the results we saw from Keenum this season. Add in the knee injury and I just can't put my trust in him as THE guy. After being out of football for 2 years.
As someone mentioned don't count Sam out, if that cleanup of his knee fixed the problem.
@"Norse" said: The reality is Teddy can not make the majority of the intermediate-deep throws that Sam made against the Saints, and has never produced the results we saw from Keenum this season. Add in the knee injury and I just can't put my trust in him as THE guy. After being out of football for 2 years. As someone mentioned don't count Sam out, if that cleanup of his knee fixed the problem.Reality is you are passing judgement on a kid who was only entering his 3rd year, had made improvements in each of his ford 2 years, and from all accounts was looking to make a big leap into that 3rd year. Reality is you don't know what Teddy can or cannot do at this point. The coaches know, and they've said he is looking very good, his teammates know and they say the same, but you want to create your own version of "reality"?
I am actually to the point of hoping he does get to move on, because so many fans here are expecting him to fail that no matter how good he would play it would never be good enough. So many people are getting so invested in the notion of him being unable to improve on what we saw in 15 or that his leg is going to fall off that he will never be able to convince them otherwise.
I dont think its worth chancing next season to see if Teddy can get it done or not.The time to strike is now.
@"prairieghost" said: I don't know how we could keep both Case and Teddy. If by some miracle we convinced both of them to stay and compete for the starter's job, how would we pay them? I mean in order to keep Case supposedly he may command over 20 mil. There's no way Teddy would sign for a lesser amount than Case and that's because I have to believe that in Teddy's mind he'd win that camp competition (and I honestly think he would, too). He isn't going to be the starter and get paid backup money. And, conversely, I'm sure Case wouldn't want to back up Teddy. Both guys are going to want to be the starter. Geoff, I know you already said in this thread that the team won't guarantee the starter's job to either Teddy or Sam. If we don't resign Case and we don't enter the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes, wouldn't that then guarantee either Teddy or Sam as starter for 2018 if we sign either one of them? If neither are guaranteed the job, who (if not Case or Cousins) would be any kind of competition for the starting job for Sam or Teddy? The only way I can see not guaranteeing either of them the job would be if we resigned both of them. But why in the world would Sam and Teddy agree to a camp competition against each other? Just going on what we know about the Vikings not signing Teddy or Sam as unquestioned starter, that leads me to believe we're going to be either retaining Case as the starter (by virtue of tag or an actual long-term deal) or we are indeed getting in the Cousins sweepstakes. It makes sense in light of Sam and Teddy's injuries and the uncertainty that those injuries create, but at this point if we let Teddy go then I'm all for going after Cousins.
I think they'll toll Bridgewater.
@"Norse" said: I dont think its worth chancing next season to see if Teddy can get it done or not.The time to strike is now.and i think that Case is the worst option of the bunch to try and develop a stronger offense. his limited arm and tendencies to lock onto receivers makes him a liability that cant be over come with better blocking. I hate to sound like I think he is complete shit, but of the 3 he gives me the most pause in terms of elevating the offense. I think he is a quality back up or short term starter, but as far as giving the league another year of taking away the out routes and jamming Diggs and Theilen or using bracket coverages to force him into holding the ball and or making overly contested throws, that is the chance I dont see worth taking.
if the team isnt going to go the economical route and try and get at least one good QB out of the 2 lower cost prospects in Sam and Teddy, then they should go all out for Cousins. why go middle of the road? Do you honestly think that Case has more game than what we saw this year? I dont see his arm getting stronger, nor do I think he will suddenly start to see the entire field and use his eyes to move defenders. he is a school yard QB and that is great for a while, but his short comings are becoming more apparent to opposing defensive coordinators.
with all of the case criticism you would think he lead us to a 7-9 season. smh....
Jets are reportedly willing to pay Cousins $60 million in his first year...So, he can say what he wants to about going to a winner, but $60 million will go a long way towards easing the discomfort of a sub .500 team...
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"Norse" said: The reality is Teddy can not make the majority of the intermediate-deep throws that Sam made against the Saints, and has never produced the results we saw from Keenum this season. Add in the knee injury and I just can't put my trust in him as THE guy. After being out of football for 2 years. As someone mentioned don't count Sam out, if that cleanup of his knee fixed the problem. Reality is you are passing judgement on a kid who was only entering his 3rd year, had made improvements in each of his ford 2 years, and from all accounts was looking to make a big leap into that 3rd year. Reality is you don't know what Teddy can or cannot do at this point. The coaches know, and they've said he is looking very good, his teammates know and they say the same, but you want to create your own version of "reality"?I am actually to the point of hoping he does get to move on, because so many fans here are expecting him to fail that no matter how good he would play it would never be good enough. So many people are getting so invested in the notion of him being unable to improve on what we saw in 15 or that his leg is going to fall off that he will never be able to convince them otherwise.
I think this is a bit much. The reality is that Teddy did not suffer just a ligament tear or tears. He suffered an injury where there are not many examples of players coming back AND returning to their old form.That old form of Teddy's still needed work and yes, he did look good in the 2016 pre-season but that is still just the pre-season. He still needed to do it in the regular season.
It is perfectly normal for people to be unsure about Teddy and not 100% sold on him going forward due to the injury.
If the team was not ready to win NOW then maybe they take a shot and see if Teddy is able to do the things they see in "practice" in real games.
Taking a chance on that is risking wasting the efforts of the defense.
The reality is that anyone who expresses a lack of confidence due to that injury is being a labelled a hater for the most part.
What players have returned from this kind of injury and what are the percentages? Extremely low.
@"MarkSP18" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:@"Norse" said: The reality is Teddy can not make the majority of the intermediate-deep throws that Sam made against the Saints, and has never produced the results we saw from Keenum this season. Add in the knee injury and I just can't put my trust in him as THE guy. After being out of football for 2 years. As someone mentioned don't count Sam out, if that cleanup of his knee fixed the problem. Reality is you are passing judgement on a kid who was only entering his 3rd year, had made improvements in each of his ford 2 years, and from all accounts was looking to make a big leap into that 3rd year. Reality is you don't know what Teddy can or cannot do at this point. The coaches know, and they've said he is looking very good, his teammates know and they say the same, but you want to create your own version of "reality"?I am actually to the point of hoping he does get to move on, because so many fans here are expecting him to fail that no matter how good he would play it would never be good enough. So many people are getting so invested in the notion of him being unable to improve on what we saw in 15 or that his leg is going to fall off that he will never be able to convince them otherwise.
I think this is a bit much. The reality is that Teddy did not suffer just a ligament tear or tears. He suffered an injury where there are not many examples of players coming back AND returning to their old form.That old form of Teddy's still needed work and yes, he did look good in the 2016 pre-season but that is still just the pre-season. He still needed to do it in the regular season.
It is perfectly normal for people to be unsure about Teddy and not 100% sold on him going forward due to the injury.
If the team was not ready to win NOW then maybe they take a shot and see if Teddy is able to do the things they see in "practice" in real games.
Taking a chance on that is risking wasting the efforts of the defense.
The reality is that anyone who expresses a lack of confidence due to that injury is being a labelled a hater for the most part.
What players have returned from this kind of injury and what are the percentages? Extremely low.
Show me a list of players that have dislocated their knee. I van only think of a handful and know of 1 that came back, but they were WRs and RBs which are much more physically demanding positions on the knee.Teddy was a kid when he was drafted, and was only beginning to mature when he got hurt. I think any issues that we had with his arm were going to be laid to rest as he matured and the Vikings put a decent line in front of him and gave him some quality targets and decent play calling. All things Case had the advantages of when people want to make comparisons.
If he was a running QB I could understand the concern of his knee holding up, but he isnt so I think if the coaches are happy with where he is at in relation to 2016 and his mobility is on par with then, no reason not to give him a shot.
I used to believe in windows, I don't anymore. I believe in systems and we've got a good one, no need to change what they are doing to take a shot. Keep building a strong team the way they have and good things will happen.
Lots of comparisons of Zim and Green, I don't see it. Green was an egotist that dismissed the importance of defense, while Zim has been pretty hands off with his offenses, he has shown that he wants to see it improve as he has always tried to surround himself with the best offensive minds available. In Zim I trust and with him our window will be open more than closed. If he is good with Teddy I am good with Teddy. We should know in a few weeks I guess.
@"FSUVike" said: Cousins will get money he can't refuse from either the Jets or Broncos.Minnesota will sign Case to a multi-year deal with an early out. He will regress into what I'm going to call Andy Dalton 2.0, good enough to get to the Playoffs, not good enough to get to the Super Bowl.
In a few years Minnesota will be looking to Draft a QB to compete with Sloter, who hasn't developed as much as the team would like.
If you look in your heart you know that this is the most likely outcome. And as Vikings fans we should be used to it by now but it will hurt any way. :(
I wish I could argue with this rationale, but how can you really if you're being honest as a Viking's fan? Odds are this team won't maximize its potential because of weakness at QB and it will turn problematic in the near future. Sigh. I mean, I see options with these 3 but any great ones? Nope.
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