The Case For and Against Tagging Keenum
Speculation will only increase from here on
out now that NFL teams can start tagging their own players prior to free
agency. This is when we will see teams start to lay the first card from their
off-season hands, revealing their intentions. The Vikings like every other NFL
team have to decide whether a player warrants the hefty monetary commitment via
the tag vs. working a long-term extension or walking away all-together. All
things equal the Vikings are fortunate to only have one realistic target for
the tag, quarterback Case Keenum. But there is a lot more to this decision than
meets the eye. Here is the Case to tag or not to tag Keenum (sorry I had to).
Option
1: The Franchise Tag (Non-Exclusive) - If the Vikings want to see Keenum lead
the offense again in 2018 to prove his play in 2017, the franchise tag is a one
year $23.1M option. The largest benefit to the tag is that the Vikings would
know Keenum is a Vikings in 2018 and the team would not be committed past this
year if he regresses without Pat Shurmur. It's easy to argue that Case isn't
worth $23.1M, but the flexibility of a one-year deal has additional value
associated with it. Compared to the market Case's play was also in-line with
Alex Smith who signed a multi-year extension worth $23.5M a year. Once again
throw the consistency of both QB's out the window and $23.1M isn't an
unreasonable number. Now there is the bad. The Vikings are learning first hand
that having QB's on expiring deals is tricky business. Players aren't going to
give teams significant discounts when they're this close to reaching free
agency. If Case performs well again next season the Vikings are right back to
this point again. The issue is that they are now in the Kirk Cousins cycle
where the franchise tag becomes 120% of the previous years salary. That makes a
second tag for Keenum $28.2M. Not only
would have make a second tag unlikely, but an extension that much tougher. The
player has all the leverage to suggest receiving at least $28M in cash during
the first year of the deal. Add in potential feelings the Vikings lacked
commitment and there isn't a ton of room to expect Keenum to sign a team
friendly deal.
Option
2: The Transition Tag - If the Vikings aren't entirely sure if they want to tag
Keenum exclusively or are having trouble gauging a fair market deal, the
transition tag becomes an option. The transition tag is a one year $20.9M deal
that isn't often used. Under the transition tag the player can negotiate with
any other team and come to terms on a long-term contract extension. Upon
signing with another team the Vikings would have 7 days to match the deal as
signed or decide to walk away. The ability to match is attractive since it
assures you if matched you won't be left high and dry. The negative is that the
agreed upon deal will not be team friendly (it's designed so you don't match
it). Although unlikely another potential positive to the transition tag is
that'd it would likely buy the Vikings time to renounce the tag if they found
an alternative on the market. You can renounce the tag without any
repercussions until it is signed. Case and his agent would prefer a long-term
deal so signing the tag immediately doesn't make much sense. In a nutshell the
transition tag only makes sense if the Vikings and Case can't figure out his
market value and the Vikings want some control over the situation. There are
times players will let teams match an outside deal but if the Vikings have
doubt Keenum would give them that right, tagging him in this fashion makes some
sense.
Option
3: A Long-term Extension - Last but not least is finding middle ground and
signing Case of a 3-year deal in the range of $57M ($19M/yr). An extension is
beneficial for Case since it takes the pressure to perform on a one year deal
away. From a team standpoint it gets you away from a second tag and the
guaranteed money in years 2 & 3 would likely be light. You could get out of
the deal relatively painlessly in the future. The major con here is that Case
will likely want to test the FA market to see if he could get a deal in excess
of $19M/yr. As eluded to, players typically want to hit the marketplace at this
point barring a team overpay. If that happens there is no guarantee Keenum will
find a contract he likes elsewhere without looking back. The chance the Vikings
would be left with no QB would be real.
Everyone
can come to their own conclusions on what will happen based on the above. My
hunch is that the Vikings will end up franchising Keenum for $23.1M only if they
don't believe they have a legitimate shot in the Kirk Cousins contest and Bridgewater intends to walk. On the
tag the Vikings could rest assured they have a QB and continue to work a
long-term extension through mid-July to keep Keenum happy. The nice thing in
that scenario is that the external market pressure would be relieved.
@"FSUVike" said:@"HappyViking" said:@"FSUVike" said:@"HappyViking" said: Does anyone really believe that we would've won the SB, or as least beaten Philly if we had Cousins playing QB instead of Case? No way do I believe that for a second. Getting Cousins might improve the QB spot in some areas, but not necessarily all that much. Case moves around better and made several great plays while scrambling. Not sure Cousins can do those things.I thought Case outplayed Cousins when the Vikes beat the Redskins. Case was throwing darts and was way more efficient between the two.
The thought of the Vikings making a guy like Cousins the highest paid QB just sounds wrong to me. I understand overspending on a great QB, and maybe that's my problem; I just don't see Cousins as a great QB.
I'd be more than ok with the QB combo platter of Case, Teddy, and Sloter going into next season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SElT590QmTY&feature=onebox
So supporting cast has nothing to do with QB performance? In that game Case was throwing to Diggs & Thielen while Kirk was throwing to Crowder and Doctson. Or maybe Grant was his second best option. Rudolph is better than the corpse of Vernon Davis. The Washington O-Line had all its Starters playing together for the first time in a while and are they really any good even when healthy? The run game scares no one and Minnesota has a far superior Defense.A lot of Kirk detractors wanted to see him elevate a talentless team. He didn't. Why? Because he's not a TIER 1 QB!
There are currently only 4 QBs that can make chicken salad out of chicken poop. And I hate to burst bubbles but Brady, Rodgers, Brees and Ben won't be playing in purple next year.
Cousins is a Tier 2 QB that can take a contender over the top as the SI.article Sticky linked points out. And he doesn't have any injury concerns or questions about repeating a career year.
Do you think the Vikes would've made it the SB with Cousins at QB last year? We were one win away, and I doubt Cousins would've taken this team any further than Case. I think going with Case and getting more FAs with the probable 8 - 10 million savings would make more sense.
Yes. Why? They wouldn't have been blanked by the Lions at home. That would have given them home field throughout the Playoffs.I also don't think Cousins would have taken the sack that knocked the team out of FG range to start the second half of the Saints game nor would he have thrown that pick.
Let's face it, that comeback by the Saints and subsequent miracle victory drained the Vikings. Do I believe the Defense would have shut down Philly if Minnesota had cruised to a win like they should have? No. Pederson and his staff crafted a master game plan. But they would have played better.
And having an Offense that can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the Playoffs would have allowed the Defense more time to rest and more margin for error.
So yes, I really think Cousins would have made a big difference last year.
So Cousins would've finally been that magical missing piece all of us Viking fans have been waiting for at QB?Sorry, I guess we just don't agree on this. While Case is far from perfect, Cousins isn't either. Cousins also throws stupid picks and gets sacked too.
@"FSUVike" said:@"HappyViking" said: Does anyone really believe that we would've won the SB, or as least beaten Philly if we had Cousins playing QB instead of Case? No way do I believe that for a second. Getting Cousins might improve the QB spot in some areas, but not necessarily all that much. Case moves around better and made several great plays while scrambling. Not sure Cousins can do those things.I thought Case outplayed Cousins when the Vikes beat the Redskins. Case was throwing darts and was way more efficient between the two.
The thought of the Vikings making a guy like Cousins the highest paid QB just sounds wrong to me. I understand overspending on a great QB, and maybe that's my problem; I just don't see Cousins as a great QB.
I'd be more than ok with the QB combo platter of Case, Teddy, and Sloter going into next season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SElT590QmTY&feature=onebox
So supporting cast has nothing to do with QB performance? In that game Case was throwing to Diggs & Thielen while Kirk was throwing to Crowder and Doctson. Or maybe Grant was his second best option. Rudolph is better than the corpse of Vernon Davis. The Washington O-Line had all its Starters playing together for the first time in a while and are they really any good even when healthy? The run game scares no one and Minnesota has a far superior Defense.A lot of Kirk detractors wanted to see him elevate a talentless team. He didn't. Why? Because he's not a TIER 1 QB!
There are currently only 4 QBs that can make chicken salad out of chicken poop. And I hate to burst bubbles but Brady, Rodgers, Brees and Ben won't be playing in purple next year.
Cousins is a Tier 2 QB that can take a contender over the top as the SI.article Sticky linked points out. And he doesn't have any injury concerns or questions about repeating a career year.
I generally agree with that. My concern with Case is that there are a number of warning signs that point to him coming back down to earth. His playoff stats are one of them. Between the 2nd half of the Saints game and NFC Championship game he threw for a completion % of 60, with 407 yards, a single TD, and 3 INT. That falls right in-line with his career averages.There is risk with Kirk as well. He's a system QB and there is no way to know if he'll be able to produce in MN until he's in the offense. But there is a better chance you're going to get a Keenum like performance out of him in 2018 than Case himself. If that makes sense.
@"HappyViking" said:@"FSUVike" said:@"HappyViking" said:@"FSUVike" said:@"HappyViking" said: Does anyone really believe that we would've won the SB, or as least beaten Philly if we had Cousins playing QB instead of Case? No way do I believe that for a second. Getting Cousins might improve the QB spot in some areas, but not necessarily all that much. Case moves around better and made several great plays while scrambling. Not sure Cousins can do those things.I thought Case outplayed Cousins when the Vikes beat the Redskins. Case was throwing darts and was way more efficient between the two.
The thought of the Vikings making a guy like Cousins the highest paid QB just sounds wrong to me. I understand overspending on a great QB, and maybe that's my problem; I just don't see Cousins as a great QB.
I'd be more than ok with the QB combo platter of Case, Teddy, and Sloter going into next season.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SElT590QmTY&feature=onebox
So supporting cast has nothing to do with QB performance? In that game Case was throwing to Diggs & Thielen while Kirk was throwing to Crowder and Doctson. Or maybe Grant was his second best option. Rudolph is better than the corpse of Vernon Davis. The Washington O-Line had all its Starters playing together for the first time in a while and are they really any good even when healthy? The run game scares no one and Minnesota has a far superior Defense.A lot of Kirk detractors wanted to see him elevate a talentless team. He didn't. Why? Because he's not a TIER 1 QB!
There are currently only 4 QBs that can make chicken salad out of chicken poop. And I hate to burst bubbles but Brady, Rodgers, Brees and Ben won't be playing in purple next year.
Cousins is a Tier 2 QB that can take a contender over the top as the SI.article Sticky linked points out. And he doesn't have any injury concerns or questions about repeating a career year.
Do you think the Vikes would've made it the SB with Cousins at QB last year? We were one win away, and I doubt Cousins would've taken this team any further than Case. I think going with Case and getting more FAs with the probable 8 - 10 million savings would make more sense.
Yes. Why? They wouldn't have been blanked by the Lions at home. That would have given them home field throughout the Playoffs.I also don't think Cousins would have taken the sack that knocked the team out of FG range to start the second half of the Saints game nor would he have thrown that pick.
Let's face it, that comeback by the Saints and subsequent miracle victory drained the Vikings. Do I believe the Defense would have shut down Philly if Minnesota had cruised to a win like they should have? No. Pederson and his staff crafted a master game plan. But they would have played better.
And having an Offense that can go toe-to-toe with anyone in the Playoffs would have allowed the Defense more time to rest and more margin for error.
So yes, I really think Cousins would have made a big difference last year.
So Cousins would've finally been that magical missing piece all of us Viking fans have been waiting for at QB?Sorry, I guess we just don't agree on this. While Case is far from perfect, Cousins isn't either. Cousins also throws stupid picks and gets sacked too.
The difference being that Kirk tends to do that when trying to rally from a deficit while Case does it with the lead. It's Keenum having that Gambler nature that I just don't believe can be coached out of him.
@"Poiple" said:@"pumpf" said:@"Poiple" said: with all of the case criticism you would think he lead us to a 7-9 season. smh....Again with the "led" the team to 13-3? He was a part of the team. But everyone (without an agenda) knows that the defense was our strongest link. If anyone, THEY led us to 13-3.
But, of course, I wouldn't be so myopic as to say that any one person- or even side of the ball- was responsible for our successful REGULAR season.You see, Poiple, the problem with giving Case credit for 13-3... means that you also have to "credit" him with our lack of success in the NFCCG. And if that's really who he is, why would we want him back?
Thats the least i telligent thing i have seen you say. He is the QB, the position is the undisputed team leader.
His stats were amazing when he got a bit of blocking. He created and extended plays. He did more than anyone else in that position has done. And when the D cant stop anyone and gives up points like a sieve and the oline is is injured, shuffled and then reshuffled and the QB has the most pressures of anyone in the playoffs... ya lets blame the QB.
you guys prove their is no rational discussion with you.
Sure lets go 13-3 and kick him to the curb and go for two who have never had that success. Lets credit all the wins to the team and all the losses to the Qb. smgdh.... Im done discussing it.
Well, you might as well be done discussing it... since you're under the impression that the only conversation to be held is either "Case is god"... or "Case sucks". If you can't see that there's some room in the middle for some further discussion... then you might as well stop trying. Good call.By the way: if you can find the post where I blamed Case for the playoff loss, let me know. Because I certainly don't remember typing that.
To me the Kirk Cousins talk is strictly academic as I'm convinced either Horse Face with Denver or the Jets will make him a better offer than Minnesota either in length, guarantees or some other fashion.
And he'd be crazy to turn it down. In a gladiator type sport like the NFL you need to take the best money you can get as you never know how long you will have to play and what kind of quality of life issues you will face when you retire.
Same for Teddy. Not so much for Sam as he's already cashed in big time. Still hard to see why Bradford would want to compete for a Starting job or be a backup though. He doesn't need the money any more than say Brady or Ben. Why bother playing any more unless it's to Start and chase a Ring?
Edit Post (mod action — author will see a notice)
Warn Poster
Suspend User (3 days)
The user will be suspended for 3 days and will receive an email with the reason and information about how to appeal.