And yet Jarius Wright still outperformed him....

There were only 20 completions by Case in the entire game.  How many catches should've LT have had?  This is the breakdown:

Receiving	REC	YDS	TD	LG
Jarius Wright	3	54	0	30
Kyle Rudolph	5	43	0	19
Adam Thielen	5	41	0	14
Laquon Treadwell	3	28	0	11
C.J. Ham	1	12	0	12
Jerick McKinnon	3	10	0	9

@"HappyViking" said: There were only 20 completions by Case in the entire game.  How many catches should've LT have had?  This is the breakdown:

Receiving	REC	YDS	TD	LG
Jarius Wright	3	54	0	30
Kyle Rudolph	5	43	0	19
Adam Thielen	5	41	0	14
Laquon Treadwell	3	28	0	11
C.J. Ham	1	12	0	12
Jerick McKinnon	3	10	0	9

Both Treadwell and Wright were targeted 4 times and caught 3 of them.  Treadwell's only none catch was on the long pass that he was interfered on.  Two games in a row for Treadwell with 3 catches on 4 targets.  I see progress and hope the targets increase for the young WR.  

	REC	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	TGTS
Jarius Wright	3	54	18.0	0	30	4
Kyle Rudolph	5	43	8.6	0	19	7
Adam Thielen	5	41	8.2	0	14	12
Laquon Treadwell	3	28	9.3	0	11	4
C.J. Ham	1	12	12.0	0	12	1
Jerick McKinnon	3	10	3.3	0	9	3
TEAM	20	188	9.4	0	30	31

Lets try having some patience?   Hmmm.   Oh wait.... 

@"twgerber" said: Lets try having some patience?   Hmmm.   Oh wait.... 

I have patience, but what round was this guy drafted? 4th or 5th?

Because his numbers don't match a 1st round pick.

@"Bolstad79" said:

@"twgerber" said: Lets try having some patience?   Hmmm.   Oh wait.... 

I have patience, but what round was this guy drafted? 4th or 5th?

Because his numbers don't match a 1st round pick.

@"Bolstad79" said:

@"twgerber" said: Lets try having some patience?   Hmmm.   Oh wait.... 

I have patience, but what round was this guy drafted? 4th or 5th?

Because his numbers don't match a 1st round pick.

@"Jor-El" said:

@"Bolstad79" said:

@"twgerber" said: Lets try having some patience?   Hmmm.   Oh wait.... 

I have patience, but what round was this guy drafted? 4th or 5th?

Because his numbers don't match a 1st round pick.

More than that: his potential is disappointing for a first-round pick. Geoff said, "physical limitations"...patience won't fix that.

I have a hunch that he was kind of a Norv Turner pick. Not in a vacuum, but if another WR or two were gone that were preferred by consensus, I could imagine Norv pushing for Treadwell because he believed he would turn into Michael Irvin. But this is just speculation based on the indications that Norv became terribly disconnected from the team's direction last year.

@"Bolstad79" said:

@"twgerber" said: Lets try having some patience?   Hmmm.   Oh wait.... 

I have patience, but what round was this guy drafted? 4th or 5th?

Because his numbers don't match a 1st round pick.

Scrutiny yes.   Some calling him a bust during year 2 is premature and shows a lack of patience.  WR's are a historically slow group to contribute.  There are always exceptions.   

@"twgerber" said: Scrutiny yes.   Some calling him a bust during year 2 is premature and shows a lack of patience.  WR's are a historically slow group to contribute.  There are always exceptions.   

No they aren't. Especially 1st round draft picks, which is the main crux of the criticism and that a few refuse to acknowledge. 1st round WR picks are quick to show you they are either good or busts, that's historically accurate.

I'd like to see that proof.  How many are deemed a bust after 1 year?  2 years?    vs 4 years?  

I have never seen a true analysis so hopefully you can provide.

@"twgerber" said: I'd like to see that proof.  How many are deemed a bust after 1 year?  2 years?    vs 4 years?  

I have never seen a true analysis so hopefully you can provide.

LOL, dude. 4 years? Give me a break. Listen, how about this....I'll make a friendly non-money wager that Treadwell will not be on this team in 2019. That's a bust. Can we agree on that? I want the guy to succeed, but its pretty obvious, at least to me (I'll qualify it that way) that he won't. He'll get next year because he's a 1st round pick and GM's hate to bag on those mistakes. The Vikings have to get a #3 with more upside than Treadless. 

4 years because most WR's don't break out until year 3 is the general consensus.   sure I'll take that bet.  He will be on the team Sept 1 2019 (baring catastrophic injury).

@"StickyBun" said:

@"twgerber" said: Scrutiny yes.   Some calling him a bust during year 2 is premature and shows a lack of patience.  WR's are a historically slow group to contribute.  There are always exceptions.   

No they aren't. Especially 1st round draft picks, which is the main crux of the criticism and that a few refuse to acknowledge. 1st round WR picks are quick to show you they are either good or busts, that's historically accurate.

Wasn't there a detailed analysis earlier in this thread that went back like 4 years and looked at the production of 1st Round WRs and specifically those drafted in the 20s that revealed that there hasn't been a lot of early success? 

Or was that another post? 

Don't remember LOL

@"FSUVike" said: Wasn't there a detailed analysis earlier in this thread that went back like 4 years and looked at the production of 1st Round WRs and specifically those drafted in the 20s that revealed that there hasn't been a lot of early success? 

Or was that another post? 

I believe you are right.   I also think that some people are not going to look at anything that might make them change their position so its futile to try. 

there are always a mixture of results at all positions, some surprises,  some disappointments,  but what I can never understand is how some fans can hold their expectations over a player based on his draft position.  its not like they slot themselves.  if they are lacking in some area its not on the player for not being great at that right away. 

especially a player that is taken on potential and not current ability.  ( Treadwell fits this mold IMO)  these guys are kind of roll the dice guys.   I wonder how many people that are writing Treadwell off already were pushing CPatt until the very end.  At least we know Treadwell is working on being a better football player from day one... as a rookie CP was worried about becoming a fashion designer and didnt really focus on his game until after his second season.  ( not to mention all those additional picks surrendered for CP)... ( devil emoji )

I think that was another thread, but it was only going back 4 years and the poster found the rate was about 50% in round 1, bit lower in the 20s. I thought it was skewed by the freakish 2014 group of WRs (Watkins, Evans, Beckham, Cooks, Benjamin) but excellent. But his intent was to show that the odds of success in drafting a WR in the 1st are dicey. I think the question in this thread is, "Do WRs who produce very little in their first year often have later success?" You would have to dig back over a longer period, because all the guys from the last 4 years who have not produced yet might NEVER produce.

@"FSUVike" said: Wasn't there a detailed analysis earlier in this thread that went back like 4 years and looked at the production of 1st Round WRs and specifically those drafted in the 20s that revealed that there hasn't been a lot of early success? 

Or was that another post? 

I did that analysis on another thread.  I will look and cut and paste.  

Perspective from around the League. 

OK did a little research on the last few first round WR drafts:

2017 - only two WR's taken in the first round and they are referenced above.  Both Top 10 picks and neither has done squat.
Mike Williams at #7 to the Chargers - he has 1 catch - has had the new NFL wr injury bug.
John Ross at #9 to the Bengals - the speedster - he has 0 catches and 1 run for 12 yards.

2016 - 4 WR's taken - at 15 Coleman, 21 Fuller, 22 Doctson and 23 Treadwell
2015 - 6 WR's taken - at 4 Cooper, 7 Kevin White, 14 Devante Parker, 20 Agholor, 26 Brashard Perriman, 29 Philip Dorsett
2014 - 5 WR's taken - 4 Sammy Watkins, 7 Mike Evans, 12 Odell Beckem, 20 Branden Cooks, 28 Calvin Benjamin

If we only look at WR's taken in the 20's like Treadwell:

2016 - Fuller has been dinged both season and has played 3 games this year with 8 catches.
Doctson has been injured the whole time and has played in 7 games in 2 years with a total of 6 catches
Treadwell has been targeted 16 times total in 2 years with 9 catches (5 first downs, yippee 

2015 - Agholor looks to be one of the most productive 20th picks of 2015 with 23 catches as a rookie, 36 last year and 20 already this year for the Eagles.
Perriman with the Ravens didn't play in one game as a rookie, had 33 catches last year and has a total of 4 catches on 17 targets through 6 games this year. 
Dorsett with the Colts had 18 catches as a rookie, 33 last year and was traded to the Patriots where he has 4 catches on 8 targets on the year.

2014 - Cooks and Benjamin both productive from the get-go
Cooks 53 catches in 10 games as a rookie followed by 84 catches, 78 catches and was then traded to the Patriots where he has 24 catches in 6 games.
Benjamin played in all 16 games as a rookie and had 73 catches but was injured for the whole following year of 2015.  2016 he had 63 catches.  This year he has 26 catches in 6 games but might have another knee injury and isn't practicing.

So to give some perspective, WR's taken in the first round and also in the 20's are about a 50/50 chance of making immediate impacts as rookies.  Treadwell is coming on and it is his chance to step-up in year 2 with Diggs hurt again.