OT: Coronavirus

There are apparently 116 people in South Korea now who have tested positive a 2nd time after being released from treatment. Sounds like they are trying to determine if perhaps the initial positive tests were inaccurate - if the virus revived itself after treatment or if it was fresh exposure to the virus post treatment...

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/04/119_287752.html

@"BlackMagic7" said: There are apparently 116 people in South Korea now who have tested positive a 2nd time after being released from treatment. Sounds like they are trying to determine if perhaps the initial positive tests were inaccurate - if the virus revived itself after treatment or if it was fresh exposure to the virus post treatment...

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/04/119_287752.html

did these people have anti-bodies and now caught it again?

Would F up a lot if its determined anti-bodies aren't indicative of immunity...A real lot.

We haven't heard the same from Europe yet, or China. Not that China would be very forthcoming. 

Hope they get to the bottom of it - quickly. 

@"Havoc1649" said:

@"mblack" said: From: abcnews

Investigators stumbled onto the scheme while looking into whether they could intercept the masks for the Federal Emergency Management Agency under the Defense Production Act, the U.S. attorney’s office said Friday.

The federal government has been quietly seizing supplies across the country as the outbreak spreads. But in this case, there was no warehouse, and there were no masks to seize, the Los Angeles Times reported.

So let me get this straight... states are supposed to take care of themselves and when they try to order masks the federal government has been quietly seizing them.

No, they’ve been seizing hoarded supplies, not commercial supplies headed to states. They do pay for them them even though they’ve been hoarded. 
Secondly, at no time have the states been told to “take care of themselves”. The closest thing to that is when Trump said it would likely be faster for them if they tried to buy direct themselves. He was saying that could avoid the red tape and time it takes to get it through the feds. This was then purposely misstated by the media to imply he was saying they were on their own. 

@"JimmyinSD" said: Remember when the kiddies were calling this the "BOOMER DOOMER",  or other cute names because they were told that it wouldnt affect them?  about half our cases are people under 40 here.

AGE GROUP OF SOUTH DAKOTA COVID-19 CASES

Age Range	# of Cases	# of Deaths
0 to 19 years	44	0
20 to 29 years	187	0
30 to 39 years	246	0
40 to 49 years	187	0
50 to 59 years	182	2
60 to 69 years	110	1
70 to 79 years	18	1
80+ years	14	2

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"BigAl99" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"kmillard" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"Vikergirl" said: https://twitter.com/AP/status/1250095233632808961?s=19

not making a political statement here,  but its funny how this guys is like teflon... he has made a lot of statements that in hindsight have proven to be inaccurate.  he is our leading expert and has been proven wrong by this thing as much as he's been right.  its no wonder the country is turned on itself when even the experts are wrong more than a weather man.  what are we all to believe?

Well I believe the treating of the whole country like NYC is silly. 

I think they recognize that and we'll see differences depending on demography. At least I hope so.

What they do in Jimmys part of the world in South Dakota (which never issued a SAH order) will look vastly different than NYS or even MN. 

This also quickly leads into a discussion of Governors vs Feds and who has the final say on how and when.

Even big states governed by Cuomo and Newsome may do things radically different from each other. 

even in regions of states,  what would have been best in SFalls,  wouldnt have made sense in other places necessarily.  even the timing of the stay at home orders.  a nation wide blanket order would have been futile and useless based on the spread,  just as a nationwide reopening would be equally ignorant as we are all at different stages with this thing in terms of herd exposure and any developed immunity.

I am really hoping this pin prick test for immunity is able to be mass produced rapidly so that we can start clearing parts of the country and especially certain industries to get the economy starting to roll again.  I dont agree with the sentiment of the the president that this economy is going to come roaring back,  if we reopen the country cautiously and smart it will result in a slow restart,  but it will be the smartest way to do it until more is known or we will be back to quarantining in a matter of a few months.

hell, Smithfield Meat Packing Plant should have had it's own set of rules, let alone a county. 

thats been one of my biggest disappointments from a multiple standpoints.  I know for a fact that our Gov has been very on top of each case (especially the deaths) early on in this disease and that tracking those early cases back to contain spread was a priority.  I have to think that there was more at play here than a lack of a stay at home order that allowed that packing plant to go to shit like it has.    lots of misinformation on that specific issue and lots of finger pointing is sure to come.  what rattles me is that everybody keeps pointing the fingers at the govt agency above them... there was no reason that sioux falls itself or even the 2 major counties down there couldnt have acted sooner.  of course Smithfield is the one IMO that should be the first to be held to the fire for failing to keep their employees safe.  I would suggest lawsuits could be coming.  Ultimately though, this is on the employees that went to work sick and infected their co-workers, absolutely selfish no matter what the reasoning behind it.  I am waiting for it to now spread to all the dairies in the area since the packing house is closed there will be a shit load of unskilled labor looking to make a pay check and they wont follow any orders to stay home.

The Iowa attorney general explained it in a Q&A that our State Constitution doesn't allow for city, county other local entity to have more strict laws than the State.
It's easy to put it on the employee, but you are contagious before you show symptoms, that's the testing thing.  If you know you got it, your two weeks too late to stop the spread 

thats a very interesting law and one that likely could be challenged if in fact it is legit.  Cities do a lot of things that arent state laws like curfews, snow ordinances and such.  I know here in SD that Beadle County (Huron) took action and mandated some closures and stay at home stuff early on since they were the fastest growing area in SD right out of the gate.

EDIT:  I do believe that local govts cant over rule higher mandates in terms of leniency,  like lowering their drinking ages and shit like that.

Interesting edit Jimmy.  I have read varying opinions on this.  I have read they can’t lower drinking age ... but also have read counties can decriminalize marijuana.  

Some time when I have more time - I will research this. 

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"BlackMagic7" said: There are apparently 116 people in South Korea now who have tested positive a 2nd time after being released from treatment. Sounds like they are trying to determine if perhaps the initial positive tests were inaccurate - if the virus revived itself after treatment or if it was fresh exposure to the virus post treatment...

http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2020/04/119_287752.html

Thats kinda disturbing.

did these people have anti-bodies and now caught it again?

Would F up a lot if its determined anti-bodies aren't indicative of immunity...A real lot.

We haven't heard the same from Europe yet, or China. Not that China would be very forthcoming. 

Hope they get to the bottom of it - quickly. 

@"A1Janitor" said: Interesting edit Jimmy.  I have read varying opinions on this.  I have read they can’t lower drinking age ... but also have read counties can decriminalize marijuana.  

Some time when I have more time - I will research this. 

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"A1Janitor" said: Interesting edit Jimmy.  I have read varying opinions on this.  I have read they can’t lower drinking age ... but also have read counties can decriminalize marijuana.  

Some time when I have more time - I will research this. 

Typically local authorities can make restrictions greater...think HOAs,  but they cant ease them from the intent of the law.

@"A1Janitor" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"A1Janitor" said: Interesting edit Jimmy.  I have read varying opinions on this.  I have read they can’t lower drinking age ... but also have read counties can decriminalize marijuana.  

Some time when I have more time - I will research this. 

Typically local authorities can make restrictions greater...think HOAs,  but they cant ease them from the intent of the law.

I was told in NYS, counties can decriminalize pot that is illegal.  This is making restrictions less not greater in NY. 

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: Personally, I think contact tracing off of positive tests is a fools errand. The two main reasons for this are the high false negatives as well as the rapid spread with long latency to detection. Early on or in reference to a small area or location it may have some value, but not much on a larger scale. 

In my opinion, the majority of testing resources should be put towards antibody testing and ensuring a person becomes immune after having it. A person found to have recovered can return to work and/or help the vulnerable. There’s all this discussion about phasing the economy back into operation and this is how you do it in my opinion. At the same time, we keep the vulnerable locked down as herd immunity builds. 

Haven't some of the newer testing (the 15 or 5 minute ones) lowered the error rates? I hope so. 

Overall I agree with what you're saying. I think its spot on if testing is not accurate enough. 

The million $$ question will be how quickly can they roll out anti-body testing vs nasal swab? I read where Mayo and UofM are already doing this but to what degree? Scale?

@"Havoc1649" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"Havoc1649" said: Personally, I think contact tracing off of positive tests is a fools errand. The two main reasons for this are the high false negatives as well as the rapid spread with long latency to detection. Early on or in reference to a small area or location it may have some value, but not much on a larger scale. 

In my opinion, the majority of testing resources should be put towards antibody testing and ensuring a person becomes immune after having it. A person found to have recovered can return to work and/or help the vulnerable. There’s all this discussion about phasing the economy back into operation and this is how you do it in my opinion. At the same time, we keep the vulnerable locked down as herd immunity builds. 

Haven't some of the newer testing (the 15 or 5 minute ones) lowered the error rates? I hope so. 

Overall I agree with what you're saying. I think its spot on if testing is not accurate enough. 

The million $$ question will be how quickly can they roll out anti-body testing vs nasal swab? I read where Mayo and UofM are already doing this but to what degree? Scale?

Good question. The tests, even the slower ones are actually very accurate - if there’s genetic material at the swab site. That’s been one of the reasons for false negatives. Doc here told me they think they’ve been seeing as high as 30% false negatives. People are showing negative in their nose or throat, but are walking around with it in their lungs. 
I read one report, I believe this one was out fo New York, where they were sure this guy had it but couldn’t get a positive test. Eventually, they did a wash in his lungs and tested the liquid and finally got a positive. This virus presents unique difficulties with testing where it appears to be heavily reliant on timing to detect it. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus CountThe city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive.

A triage tent at Elmhurst Hospital Medical Center in Queens, which has been inundated with patients during the coronavirus outbreak. Credit...James Estrin/The New York Times

By J. David Goodman and William K. Rashbaum

• April 14, 2020Updated 6:58 p.m. ET

@"Hidalgo" said: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-deaths.html

N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus CountThe city has added more than 3,700 additional people who were presumed to have died of the coronavirus but had never tested positive.

A triage tent at Elmhurst Hospital Medical Center in Queens, which has been inundated with patients during the coronavirus outbreak. Credit...James Estrin/The New York Times

By J. David Goodman and William K. Rashbaum

• April 14, 2020Updated 6:58 p.m. ET

New York City, already a world epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, sharply increased its death toll by more than 3,700 victims on Tuesday, after officials said they were now including people who had never tested positive for the virus but were presumed to have died of it. The new figures, released by the city’s Health Department, drove up the number of people killed in New York City to more than 10,000, and appeared to increase the overall United States death count by 17 percent to more than 26,000.

It's the effect and cause definition.  If a person is told they have terminal disease and have two weeks to live, then steps into a crosswalk and is hit by a bread truck.  Who is responsible for the payout, liability or life insurance.  Bread-truck always looses, ask the bank.

NIH’s lead scientist for coronavirus vaccine research Kizzmekia Corbett lays out the government’s race to create a vaccine, saying they could be on track to have a vaccine from sequence to the general population within 8 months. https://t.co/FtacDLY6rn pic.twitter.com/hlE34Wz64I

— Anderson Cooper 360° (@AC360) April 15, 2020

@"A1Janitor" said: The models assumed social distancing and proper hygiene practices already.  

@"bigbone62" said:

@"A1Janitor" said: The models assumed social distancing and proper hygiene practices already.  

This is not at all accurate. If the models did not specifically state they accounted for social distancing, proper hygiene and shelter in place then they did not. At least not any model the government or those of us in healthcare were using. The respected models displayed breakdowns on possible outcomes for various scenarios. No action, social distancing, stay at home order, shelter in place and are updated daily. The models that were touting massive numbers were models to forecast what MAY happen if people didn't take this serious.  Basically to scare people. 

Proof: pic.twitter.com/4x1TMSEEg9

— Alex Berenson (@AlexBerenson) April 9, 2020

If the above twitter doesn’t show, hopefully this link does:

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/coronavirus-pandemic-projection-models-proving-unreliable/

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"bigbone62" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"Vikergirl" said: https://twitter.com/AP/status/1250095233632808961?s=19

not making a political statement here,  but its funny how this guys is like teflon... he has made a lot of statements that in hindsight have proven to be inaccurate.  he is our leading expert and has been proven wrong by this thing as much as he's been right.  its no wonder the country is turned on itself when even the experts are wrong more than a weather man.  what are we all to believe?

I dont really have an opinion on the guy one way or another. But Something I think people continually miss whether it be things Fauci or "fill in the blank politician" say. Or a model shows, is that we arent talking about a static topic, its a biological life form that has countless variables impacting its growth.  The point of social distancing, obsessive hand washing, sheltering in place, shutting down gatherings and so on was to do the very  thing people are shitting on these models and experts for being "wrong about".If the deaths and cases are ending up fewer than thought 2,3,4 weeks ago thats what we wanted from the precautions, right? So then the precautions to varying degrees are working, right? 

i dont care about dates and numbers,  thats all a guessing game based on variable that nobody can predict.  I am talking about his statements about transfer and who should quarantine vs who would be fine to go on spring vacations and cruises and shit.  we were all talking about this thing by mid March and he was still telling the media it was ok for healthy people to go on cruises.  He is a very smart man,  but I think his role has him a little out of his element at times and its reflected in what he has said.