02-20-2018, 03:26 PM
Speculation will only increase from here on
out now that NFL teams can start tagging their own players prior to free
agency. This is when we will see teams start to lay the first card from their
off-season hands, revealing their intentions. The Vikings like every other NFL
team have to decide whether a player warrants the hefty monetary commitment via
the tag vs. working a long-term extension or walking away all-together. All
things equal the Vikings are fortunate to only have one realistic target for
the tag, quarterback Case Keenum. But there is a lot more to this decision than
meets the eye. Here is the Case to tag or not to tag Keenum (sorry I had to).
Option
1: The Franchise Tag (Non-Exclusive) - If the Vikings want to see Keenum lead
the offense again in 2018 to prove his play in 2017, the franchise tag is a one
year $23.1M option. The largest benefit to the tag is that the Vikings would
know Keenum is a Vikings in 2018 and the team would not be committed past this
year if he regresses without Pat Shurmur. It's easy to argue that Case isn't
worth $23.1M, but the flexibility of a one-year deal has additional value
associated with it. Compared to the market Case's play was also in-line with
Alex Smith who signed a multi-year extension worth $23.5M a year. Once again
throw the consistency of both QB's out the window and $23.1M isn't an
unreasonable number. Now there is the bad. The Vikings are learning first hand
that having QB's on expiring deals is tricky business. Players aren't going to
give teams significant discounts when they're this close to reaching free
agency. If Case performs well again next season the Vikings are right back to
this point again. The issue is that they are now in the Kirk Cousins cycle
where the franchise tag becomes 120% of the previous years salary. That makes a
second tag for Keenum $28.2M. Not only
would have make a second tag unlikely, but an extension that much tougher. The
player has all the leverage to suggest receiving at least $28M in cash during
the first year of the deal. Add in potential feelings the Vikings lacked
commitment and there isn't a ton of room to expect Keenum to sign a team
friendly deal.
Option
2: The Transition Tag - If the Vikings aren't entirely sure if they want to tag
Keenum exclusively or are having trouble gauging a fair market deal, the
transition tag becomes an option. The transition tag is a one year $20.9M deal
that isn't often used. Under the transition tag the player can negotiate with
any other team and come to terms on a long-term contract extension. Upon
signing with another team the Vikings would have 7 days to match the deal as
signed or decide to walk away. The ability to match is attractive since it
assures you if matched you won't be left high and dry. The negative is that the
agreed upon deal will not be team friendly (it's designed so you don't match
it). Although unlikely another potential positive to the transition tag is
that'd it would likely buy the Vikings time to renounce the tag if they found
an alternative on the market. You can renounce the tag without any
repercussions until it is signed. Case and his agent would prefer a long-term
deal so signing the tag immediately doesn't make much sense. In a nutshell the
transition tag only makes sense if the Vikings and Case can't figure out his
market value and the Vikings want some control over the situation. There are
times players will let teams match an outside deal but if the Vikings have
doubt Keenum would give them that right, tagging him in this fashion makes some
sense.
Option
3: A Long-term Extension - Last but not least is finding middle ground and
signing Case of a 3-year deal in the range of $57M ($19M/yr). An extension is
beneficial for Case since it takes the pressure to perform on a one year deal
away. From a team standpoint it gets you away from a second tag and the
guaranteed money in years 2 & 3 would likely be light. You could get out of
the deal relatively painlessly in the future. The major con here is that Case
will likely want to test the FA market to see if he could get a deal in excess
of $19M/yr. As eluded to, players typically want to hit the marketplace at this
point barring a team overpay. If that happens there is no guarantee Keenum will
find a contract he likes elsewhere without looking back. The chance the Vikings
would be left with no QB would be real.
Everyone
can come to their own conclusions on what will happen based on the above. My
hunch is that the Vikings will end up franchising Keenum for $23.1M only if they
don't believe they have a legitimate shot in the Kirk Cousins contest and Bridgewater intends to walk. On the
tag the Vikings could rest assured they have a QB and continue to work a
long-term extension through mid-July to keep Keenum happy. The nice thing in
that scenario is that the external market pressure would be relieved.
out now that NFL teams can start tagging their own players prior to free
agency. This is when we will see teams start to lay the first card from their
off-season hands, revealing their intentions. The Vikings like every other NFL
team have to decide whether a player warrants the hefty monetary commitment via
the tag vs. working a long-term extension or walking away all-together. All
things equal the Vikings are fortunate to only have one realistic target for
the tag, quarterback Case Keenum. But there is a lot more to this decision than
meets the eye. Here is the Case to tag or not to tag Keenum (sorry I had to).
Option
1: The Franchise Tag (Non-Exclusive) - If the Vikings want to see Keenum lead
the offense again in 2018 to prove his play in 2017, the franchise tag is a one
year $23.1M option. The largest benefit to the tag is that the Vikings would
know Keenum is a Vikings in 2018 and the team would not be committed past this
year if he regresses without Pat Shurmur. It's easy to argue that Case isn't
worth $23.1M, but the flexibility of a one-year deal has additional value
associated with it. Compared to the market Case's play was also in-line with
Alex Smith who signed a multi-year extension worth $23.5M a year. Once again
throw the consistency of both QB's out the window and $23.1M isn't an
unreasonable number. Now there is the bad. The Vikings are learning first hand
that having QB's on expiring deals is tricky business. Players aren't going to
give teams significant discounts when they're this close to reaching free
agency. If Case performs well again next season the Vikings are right back to
this point again. The issue is that they are now in the Kirk Cousins cycle
where the franchise tag becomes 120% of the previous years salary. That makes a
second tag for Keenum $28.2M. Not only
would have make a second tag unlikely, but an extension that much tougher. The
player has all the leverage to suggest receiving at least $28M in cash during
the first year of the deal. Add in potential feelings the Vikings lacked
commitment and there isn't a ton of room to expect Keenum to sign a team
friendly deal.
Option
2: The Transition Tag - If the Vikings aren't entirely sure if they want to tag
Keenum exclusively or are having trouble gauging a fair market deal, the
transition tag becomes an option. The transition tag is a one year $20.9M deal
that isn't often used. Under the transition tag the player can negotiate with
any other team and come to terms on a long-term contract extension. Upon
signing with another team the Vikings would have 7 days to match the deal as
signed or decide to walk away. The ability to match is attractive since it
assures you if matched you won't be left high and dry. The negative is that the
agreed upon deal will not be team friendly (it's designed so you don't match
it). Although unlikely another potential positive to the transition tag is
that'd it would likely buy the Vikings time to renounce the tag if they found
an alternative on the market. You can renounce the tag without any
repercussions until it is signed. Case and his agent would prefer a long-term
deal so signing the tag immediately doesn't make much sense. In a nutshell the
transition tag only makes sense if the Vikings and Case can't figure out his
market value and the Vikings want some control over the situation. There are
times players will let teams match an outside deal but if the Vikings have
doubt Keenum would give them that right, tagging him in this fashion makes some
sense.
Option
3: A Long-term Extension - Last but not least is finding middle ground and
signing Case of a 3-year deal in the range of $57M ($19M/yr). An extension is
beneficial for Case since it takes the pressure to perform on a one year deal
away. From a team standpoint it gets you away from a second tag and the
guaranteed money in years 2 & 3 would likely be light. You could get out of
the deal relatively painlessly in the future. The major con here is that Case
will likely want to test the FA market to see if he could get a deal in excess
of $19M/yr. As eluded to, players typically want to hit the marketplace at this
point barring a team overpay. If that happens there is no guarantee Keenum will
find a contract he likes elsewhere without looking back. The chance the Vikings
would be left with no QB would be real.
Everyone
can come to their own conclusions on what will happen based on the above. My
hunch is that the Vikings will end up franchising Keenum for $23.1M only if they
don't believe they have a legitimate shot in the Kirk Cousins contest and Bridgewater intends to walk. On the
tag the Vikings could rest assured they have a QB and continue to work a
long-term extension through mid-July to keep Keenum happy. The nice thing in
that scenario is that the external market pressure would be relieved.
