Trevor Lawrence gets paid

[MaroonBells]

No
Maybe
No

So if you're the Jags GM, you move on?

[medaille]

What about Trevor Lawrence? I actually think he's the perfect example of what we're both talking about. Is he elite? Is he promising? Was he worthy of his new contract?

To be honest, I’ve probably watched one Jaguar game since he’s been drafted.  I’m probably the last person that should be judging whether or not he’s worthy of that contract.  Mostly I don’t think I would have paid him this year, unless it gives the team a shorter level of commitment and an easier out.  There wasn’t a need for them to resign him after year 3.  I would have waited until after year 4.
 
I think in an ideal world you would already have another guy in the pipeline, but the Jaguars haven’t really had an opportunity to go get that next guy.  They probably would be stuck paying him as I don’t think you should get rid of your good QB without having the next one in the pipeline or at least feeling confident that the next one will be available.   From my limited perspective, he hasn’t shined enough to make me feel comfortable that he’s the man, so I’d still be actively looking for another QB and I probably would have waited until after the 2025 draft to resign him, as maybe he pulls a Cousins and gets injured for half the season and their team is in position to draft a promising QB.

[medaille]

Looking at overthecap, I don’t think this contract is too horrible. There’s kind of two pathways. If he is mid, it’s basically a 4 year $175M extension, so $44M a year and they’ll cut him after 2028 season. If he balls out, they’ll have to resign him and start getting obnoxious void year type deals. If he’s not elite by 2028, I think he’s almost certain to get cut. I still think it’s a little bit of an overcommit in terms of how many years they’re committed to him as they’re committed for 5 seasons, which you shouldn’t be committed to a mid guy for that long. I guess they’re hoping that he rapidly outgrows that contract so it looks like a steal.

[MaroonBells]

I think you can make an argument that they could've waited a year. But what would you have to pay him then? Likely a lot more since the Jags are an improving team. 

I just think there would be an absolute feeding frenzy if a QB like Lawrence hit the open market. The guy's only 24 years old, played only 3 seasons, the 1st of which was pretty bad, but it was a terrible 3-14 team. I mean, the whole reason they were able to draft Lawrence #1 overall is because they were 1-15 the year before. Since then, they've put a little more talent around him and they've had back-to-back winning seasons with a division title and Lawrence throwing for over 4,000 yards in each.

I think his potential 2, 4, 10 years down the road is enormous. And that's what they're paying for.