NFLDG Mock 2.0

In general, I like this better than your first mock. Though the main concern that I have, is there's a lot of gambling on potential, which I know you favor as a philosophy. Are the bargin bin FA signings, AAF signings, and rookie FAs going to be enough to address immediate concerns while these players develop?

I like the idea of Fant. We need another weapon in the passing game to take pressure off of Diggs and Thielen and Fant is basically a giant WR at this point. They can move him around the field to create mismatches and he'll see a lot of single coverage his first year. If he progresses well in year one, then the Vikings would have the option to move on from Rudolph and free up some much needed cap room. I do have some concerns that he shares Rudolph's affliction of not breaking tackles and that he doesn't have a lot of experience playing in-line, but he looks really good on WR/TE screens and adjusting to deep balls. We've tried drafting the late round versions of him several times, so I'd like to see what happens with a more talented athletic TE.

This draft is a good example of how DT is a position that we either draft early or it becomes a low priority. Pass rusher could be a bigger need next year, so taking a raw player like Banogu could make sense, though this scenario would also mean keeping Holmes at DT.

Ozigbo seems to be frequently linked to the Vikings. Hopefully we get him, but positions can get hit by runs, so are there any similar backs to keep an eye out for?

On Takitaki, is there any point at adding another 2-down LB? It's been bad enough with Gedeon and it's getting harder to keep guys with limited coverage skills on the field. Would it maybe make sense to try to address LB earlier and find someone who can still play the run, but could stay on the field in nickel if needed? Gedeon was so bad in coverage at times last year, that I really wanted them to just start playing big nickel a lot more.

It would be nice to see them show restraint and draft a corner late. It's an important position, but I feel that all the high picks spent on corners have hurt other parts of the roster and we need to give some other positions some attention even if there could be needs in 2020.

I’ll start off with the, Why not a o-lineman? crowd. I truly get Fant’s athleticism is off the charts, but I view him as one of those complete luxury TE picks that happen in the first round more often than I think it would. Those picks tend to not really work out too well either(I look at Detroit and have thought, You cant afford to take that TE! and it has bitten them a couple times). Fant is not a finished product and that scares me at 18/19. The run blocking is not there, and his hands appear inconsistent. I just don’t think the Vikings can afford to take a player who might take a while to develop.

I have always been a take the best talent approach, even when I knew the o-line was a problem (thinking that you can just develop mid-round lineman and turn them into solid players like it will automatically happen because of the position). However, our franchise has proven to not be able to develop lineman. I think it has come time that they need to bite the bullet and draft at least two lineman high in the draft to ensure this season is not derailed by not fully addressing this area.

So, as much as I want to say grab an awesome DT or fun toy, it is past that point for the Vikings. I am starting to truly think the Vikings need to draft o-line in round 1 and 2. I don’t have trust in the line as it is right now. What if Kline is more like his recent down year? What if one starter gets injured? Most likely someone will miss time this season, and I don’t think we can trust a second half of the draft guy to step in without issues. If the top three are gone by 18, trade back and get a guy like Lindstrom late in the first and then come back with Howard in the second. Gaillard sounds good in the 4th, so stick with that too.

I don’t think over correcting is a good business model, but after so many years of under correcting or just missing their shots, this has to be the time to over do it and try their best to fix the glaring weakness.

With this in mind, some areas of the team will not be able to be addressed, but I think it is necessary this one year and the team can get by in other areas. To me, that eliminates a mid-round QB that I want. However that doesn’t disappoint me too much when I consider how many QBs in this area don’t work out. What do you think of Mannion? Pretty blah, huh? Well he was a 3rd round pick 4 years ago. Most mid-rounders don’t develop into a Cousins. Ok, cross QB off the board. Grab the d-lineman in the 3rd round where this draft class should still have guys who can contribute to the Vikings position group (I have much more blind faith in this with recent history). Then get a linebacker and WR/RB with the pick or picks obtained for trading back in the first round.

My opinion could change a few times before the draft, but this is the direction my gut thinks is best for the team. Good stuff Guru. Thanks!

They'd never take Fant at #19, just my opinion.

My only concern with this draft is that if we aren't going to take Oline in the first is that we get a day 1 starter in the 2nd, and a couple of pieces later that could compete for a spot later in the draft.  Howard is not a day 1 starter to me and would fall into a similar bucket as O'neill last season bit of a project who doesn't project to see much early action but is toolsy. 

As for Banogu, Acuna from last year is exactly the type of DE Zimmer loves and makes the Banogu pick unneeded and too short to fit the Zimmer proto-type.  I like the Nelson kid form Iowa as a better fit in Zimmer's Scheme than Banogu who I see as more of a 3-4 LB than a long lanky athletic DE and Nelson could really project to the LDE spot.  I really don't see a Zimmer proto-type DE outside of Sweat and Burns and I don't see us moving up to take either of them, but if Burns slides to 18 we should run to the podium with his name.

I'd rather see up grab another Oline man in the 3rd, if we go with Howard in the 2nd, someone like  Bobby Evans or Nate Davis.  Both offer some flexibility and depth.  I'm not overly excited about the Gaillard pick in the 4th, I think there is comparable talent that can be found in the 5th, and I think Gaillard more naturally projects as a 5th or 6th rounder and to me just doesn't justify the 4th round pick, 2 centers in 3 years in the first 4 rounds is waste to me.  I consider a center in the first 4 rounds as a long term starter, and Gaillard is a bit on the short side for guard, but if the Vikings see Elflein moving to guard, I could buy into Gaillard a round or 2 later.

I love Wise and Ozigbo picks.  I don't love the Fant pick from a need standpoint, but if we see him as that 3rd guy that makes Theilen and Diggs that much harder to double, then consider me all in.  From a speed and talent standpoint, Fant could be a stud and a difference maker in our offense.  My only concern with taking him in the first is will he be a liability in the run game as a blocker.  The best TE's in the league to me, (Gronk and Kelce) are dynamic catching the ball, but aren't too bad in the run game either, and Fant fits the first part just not sure about the later, seems more Jimmy Graham like just not 6'7".  If he is the Vikings pick, I'll be excited because I can see him as a game changer in the play action game in 22 personnel. 

While I agree that the Vikings are probably very interested in Fant, I'm hoping he draws a trade up from someone (Patriots) because I don't want him.

I'll just cut and paste what I wrote yesterday. 

If we didn't already have a TE...AND if TEs didn't take so long to develop....AND we didn't have bigger needs at OL and DL...AND this wasn't an historically deep TE class...I could see it. But I think the Vikings can fill bigger needs at 18 and get much better value at TE in the middle rounds with Sternberger, Knox, Oliver, Warring, Moreau. 

Not only that, but Fant has some bust factor. He was said to have pouted when the ball started going to Hockenson more. There are scouts who have concerns about him. 

And then look at what it does to your OL help. Really like Howard...as the 2nd lineman taken...tackle depth. But as someone you're counting on to start, I like him less. He's from Alabama State. Probably going to need a year. Love Gaillard as a day 3 guy, but he's not going to help you this year either.

So it's very possible, I'd say likely, we add nothing to the line for '19, our first rounder has bust factor and plays a position that typically takes a couple years to develop. There's a very real chance that if the draft falls this way, the Vikings get no immediate help. Not a fan.

I like the rest of the draft. :-)

@"Tyr" said: In general, I like this better than your first mock. Though the main concern that I have, is there's a lot of gambling on potential, which I know you favor as a philosophy. Are the bargin bin FA signings, AAF signings, and rookie FAs going to be enough to address immediate concerns while these players develop?

I like the idea of Fant. We need another weapon in the passing game to take pressure off of Diggs and Thielen and Fant is basically a giant WR at this point. They can move him around the field to create mismatches and he'll see a lot of single coverage his first year. If he progresses well in year one, then the Vikings would have the option to move on from Rudolph and free up some much needed cap room. I do have some concerns that he shares Rudolph's affliction of not breaking tackles and that he doesn't have a lot of experience playing in-line, but he looks really good on WR/TE screens and adjusting to deep balls. We've tried drafting the late round versions of him several times, so I'd like to see what happens with a more talented athletic TE.

This draft is a good example of how DT is a position that we either draft early or it becomes a low priority. Pass rusher could be a bigger need next year, so taking a raw player like Banogu could make sense, though this scenario would also mean keeping Holmes at DT.

Ozigbo seems to be frequently linked to the Vikings. Hopefully we get him, but positions can get hit by runs, so are there any similar backs to keep an eye out for?

On Takitaki, is there any point at adding another 2-down LB? It's been bad enough with Gedeon and it's getting harder to keep guys with limited coverage skills on the field. Would it maybe make sense to try to address LB earlier and find someone who can still play the run, but could stay on the field in nickel if needed? Gedeon was so bad in coverage at times last year, that I really wanted them to just start playing big nickel a lot more.

It would be nice to see them show restraint and draft a corner late. It's an important position, but I feel that all the high picks spent on corners have hurt other parts of the roster and we need to give some other positions some attention even if there could be needs in 2020.

You're right that philosophically I'll take traits over production. But you're thoughts really align with mine quite a bit. I quickly wanted to note why I think the Vikings are attacking a lot of AAF players in free agency. 

I think the AAF has created a bit of a pre-draft UDFA period without needing to use your rookie pool. The Vikings are exploiting this a bit by adding depth free agents now which will allow them to offer a higher level of guarantees to their top UDFA post draft targets. This should end up allowing them to add a lot more quality after the draft. Its a competitive advantage if you can pull it off. 

@"SkolVikings44" said: I’ll start off with the, Why not a o-lineman? crowd. I truly get Fant’s athleticism is off the charts, but I view him as one of those complete luxury TE picks that happen in the first round more often than I think it would. Those picks tend to not really work out too well either(I look at Detroit and have thought, You cant afford to take that TE! and it has bitten them a couple times). Fant is not a finished product and that scares me at 18/19. The run blocking is not there, and his hands appear inconsistent. I just don’t think the Vikings can afford to take a player who might take a while to develop.

I have always been a take the best talent approach, even when I knew the o-line was a problem (thinking that you can just develop mid-round lineman and turn them into solid players like it will automatically happen because of the position). However, our franchise has proven to not be able to develop lineman. I think it has come time that they need to bite the bullet and draft at least two lineman high in the draft to ensure this season is not derailed by not fully addressing this area.

So, as much as I want to say grab an awesome DT or fun toy, it is past that point for the Vikings. I am starting to truly think the Vikings need to draft o-line in round 1 and 2. I don’t have trust in the line as it is right now. What if Kline is more like his recent down year? What if one starter gets injured? Most likely someone will miss time this season, and I don’t think we can trust a second half of the draft guy to step in without issues. If the top three are gone by 18, trade back and get a guy like Lindstrom late in the first and then come back with Howard in the second. Gaillard sounds good in the 4th, so stick with that too.

I don’t think over correcting is a good business model, but after so many years of under correcting or just missing their shots, this has to be the time to over do it and try their best to fix the glaring weakness.

With this in mind, some areas of the team will not be able to be addressed, but I think it is necessary this one year and the team can get by in other areas. To me, that eliminates a mid-round QB that I want. However that doesn’t disappoint me too much when I consider how many QBs in this area don’t work out. What do you think of Mannion? Pretty blah, huh? Well he was a 3rd round pick 4 years ago. Most mid-rounders don’t develop into a Cousins. Ok, cross QB off the board. Grab the d-lineman in the 3rd round where this draft class should still have guys who can contribute to the Vikings position group (I have much more blind faith in this with recent history). Then get a linebacker and WR/RB with the pick or picks obtained for trading back in the first round.

My opinion could change a few times before the draft, but this is the direction my gut thinks is best for the team. Good stuff Guru. Thanks!

Good thoughts. I think my biggest issue with O-line is that although its a need you can't start reaching since you're going to potentially pass on a better player and settle for a similar player you could have at your next pick. In my analysis there is a large pool after Williams, Taylor, Dillard, and Bradbury that generally have the same chance of success in the NFL. One or more of those players will make it to #50 and you still have the potential to move up for one of them as well. Clearly if one of the top 3 OT's make it to #18 you turn the card in ASAP and this becomes a non-discussion. 

I personally am not a huge fan of Mannion but don't think he is a drastic drop-off from Siemian either. Sloter will have a chance to step in as well. I could see the team using a mid-round selection on a QB if the right guy fell far enough. I just don't think they're going to force it to happen. 

@"StickyBun" said: They'd never take Fant at #19, just my opinion.

You're going to be in the majority I think  :p

@"Amazonviking" said: My only concern with this draft is that if we aren't going to take Oline in the first is that we get a day 1 starter in the 2nd, and a couple of pieces later that could compete for a spot later in the draft.  Howard is not a day 1 starter to me and would fall into a similar bucket as O'neill last season bit of a project who doesn't project to see much early action but is toolsy. 

As for Banogu, Acuna from last year is exactly the type of DE Zimmer loves and makes the Banogu pick unneeded and too short to fit the Zimmer proto-type.  I like the Nelson kid form Iowa as a better fit in Zimmer's Scheme than Banogu who I see as more of a 3-4 LB than a long lanky athletic DE and Nelson could really project to the LDE spot.  I really don't see a Zimmer proto-type DE outside of Sweat and Burns and I don't see us moving up to take either of them, but if Burns slides to 18 we should run to the podium with his name.

I'd rather see up grab another Oline man in the 3rd, if we go with Howard in the 2nd, someone like  Bobby Evans or Nate Davis.  Both offer some flexibility and depth.  I'm not overly excited about the Gaillard pick in the 4th, I think there is comparable talent that can be found in the 5th, and I think Gaillard more naturally projects as a 5th or 6th rounder and to me just doesn't justify the 4th round pick, 2 centers in 3 years in the first 4 rounds is waste to me.  I consider a center in the first 4 rounds as a long term starter, and Gaillard is a bit on the short side for guard, but if the Vikings see Elflein moving to guard, I could buy into Gaillard a round or 2 later.

I love Wise and Ozigbo picks.  I don't love the Fant pick from a need standpoint, but if we see him as that 3rd guy that makes Theilen and Diggs that much harder to double, then consider me all in.  From a speed and talent standpoint, Fant could be a stud and a difference maker in our offense.  My only concern with taking him in the first is will he be a liability in the run game as a blocker.  The best TE's in the league to me, (Gronk and Kelce) are dynamic catching the ball, but aren't too bad in the run game either, and Fant fits the first part just not sure about the later, seems more Jimmy Graham like just not 6'7".  If he is the Vikings pick, I'll be excited because I can see him as a game changer in the play action game in 22 personnel. 

I actually almost went back to back O-line in the 2nd/3rd so I don't think that is a crazy idea. If they don't go O-lineman in the 1st I think there is actually a good chance of that happening. If they do take O-lineman in the first I would find it very unlikely they follow-up with another in the 2nd or 3rd just for value purposes. 

As for DE Banogu is special since he would have the most bend along the Vikings O-line. Its something that they probably need a bit more of opposite of Danielle. Its also why I think Brian Burns will be another consideration for them at #18. Interesting you bring up Nelson, I personally am not very high on him. He is very athletic but I just tend to shy away from tall athletic DE's since in the NFL leverage becomes one of the most important skills and the height immediately puts you at a disadvantage. 

@"MaroonBells" said: While I agree that the Vikings are probably very interested in Fant, I'm hoping he draws a trade up from someone (Patriots) because I don't want him.

I'll just cut and paste what I wrote yesterday. 

If we didn't already have a TE...AND if TEs didn't take so long to develop....AND we didn't have bigger needs at OL and DL...AND this wasn't an historically deep TE class...I could see it. But I think the Vikings can fill bigger needs at 18 and get much better value at TE in the middle rounds with Sternberger, Knox, Oliver, Warring, Moreau. 

Not only that, but Fant has some bust factor. He was said to have pouted when the ball started going to Hockenson more. There are scouts who have concerns about him. 

And then look at what it does to your OL help. Really like Howard...as the 2nd lineman taken...tackle depth. But as someone you're counting on to start, I like him less. He's from Alabama State. Probably going to need a year. Love Gaillard as a day 3 guy, but he's not going to help you this year either.

So it's very possible, I'd say likely, we add nothing to the line for '19, our first rounder has bust factor and plays a position that typically takes a couple years to develop. There's a very real chance that if the draft falls this way, the Vikings get no immediate help. Not a fan.

I like the rest of the draft. :-)

I know your love for Fant, Maroon.. lol 

You're right that he is a boom/bust prospect and that there will be other mid-round options at TE. It's something I player around with and what it boiled down to for me was that the top tier of O-lineman are off the board which practically leaves you with a D-lineman or TE. Both of those positions are equally as deep. I opted for Fant vs. say Brian Burns. You could easily flip flop and do Burns in the 1st and Warring in the 3rd. The value is basically interchangeable. I have concerns about Fant but I've heard the Kubiak's think he can unlock the offense. So they're petitioning for him to some degree. 

As for Tytus Howard I think he can start day one at guard. He would be protected enough inside that they could really use his athleticism and hide his more raw technical skills. He is not ready to play OT though. But a year starting inside will also help him progress faster as well. Personally I wouldn't be shocked to look back at this draft class in 3-4 years and Howard is the best LT from the class. 

Ozigbo is someone Rick had watched live quite a bit due to his son playing on the same team. I have seen him quite a bit myself, living in Nebraska. I think he would be a great pick for the Vikings and fit well in their offense. I hope someone doesn't take him earlier. I don't think he will make it to 157. We shall see.

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

As for DE Banogu is special since he would have the most bend along the Vikings O-line. Its something that they probably need a bit more of opposite of Danielle. Its also why I think Brian Burns will be another consideration for them at #18. Interesting you bring up Nelson, I personally am not very high on him. He is very athletic but I just tend to shy away from tall athletic DE's since in the NFL leverage becomes one of the most important skills and the height immediately puts you at a disadvantage. 

As much as I want the Vikes to pick an OL like Williams Taylor or Bradbury at 18, If Fant or Hockenson are still there at #18 or a few others that might drop like Oliver, it would be hard for the Vikes to pass any of them up for an OLman! I do believe there will be one or two surprise players drop to them as well. Always seems to be a few that drop!

Fant is not the kind of blocking TE needed for the Vike offense.  Zim wants a better run balance.  Fant hasnt proven to be reliable in the blocking game and many times it seems like the true effort is waning.  If Hockenson is still available, do it.  He adds to your run blocking game, and gives you another receiving target.  I think the Vikes try like crazy to move down if the top tier linemen fitting their scheme are gone.  The problem is the trade down options are normally much more limited than we the fans think. 

I've looked into Brian Burns today and he's an interesting prospect. Very athletic, great bend, has an array of pass rushing moves, & uses his hands well. On the negative side he's bulked up to 249, but seems to have trouble keeping on weight. His strength isn't where you want it yet and I can see him having trouble in the running game, even if he can blow up some plays in the backfield with athleticism. Teams are looking at him both as a DE and a 3-4 LB and he's got the athleticism to play in space. He'd be an interesting guy to have standing over the center in a double A gap blitz or use in zone blitz looks. The question with him is how confident the strength and condition staff are that they can get him to add weight & strength. He compares his game to Jason Taylor and while Taylor did it, it's hard to be a successful end in the 240s.

Burns is kind of like Fant, both have some really impressive traits, look awesome in highlight reels, but are lacking in key areas. Fant with blocking, consistency, & strength and Burns with weight, strength, & run defense. Both are boom or bust picks. Both could also be in line to replace expensive vets in 2020, which could be attractive to the front office.

@"NFL Draft Guru" do you have the Vikings passing on the DT Simmons in this mock and instead taking Fant, or do you think he'll be gone by #18 (or 19)?
Regarding Fant... I hope we don't take him. 1st round TEs are dicey enough and when you add questions about work ethic, blocking abilities and mental makeup, it's just way too risky a pick for this team IMO.
I love reading these mocks though so thank you and keep them coming! I like the positions you addressed (after Fant) a lot, and your player breakdowns are great.

@"Waterboy" said: Fant is not the kind of blocking TE needed for the Vike offense.  Zim wants a better run balance.  Fant hasnt proven to be reliable in the blocking game and many times it seems like the true effort is waning.  If Hockenson is still available, do it.  He adds to your run blocking game, and gives you another receiving target.  I think the Vikes try like crazy to move down if the top tier linemen fitting their scheme are gone.  The problem is the trade down options are normally much more limited than we the fans think. 

This would be with the caveat that Rudolph is still on the roster for at least 2019. Rudy/Morgan would be your in-line options with Fant working primarily out of the slot or occasionally on the boundary. I would take Hockenson without batting an eye as well but don't really see a scenario where he makes it to #18. 

@"pattersaur" said:

@"NFL Draft Guru" do you have the Vikings passing on the DT Simmons in this mock and instead taking Fant, or do you think he'll be gone by #18 (or 19)? Regarding Fant... I hope we don't take him. 1st round TEs are dicey enough and when you add questions about work ethic, blocking abilities and mental makeup, it's just way too risky a pick for this team IMO. I love reading these mocks though so thank you and keep them coming! I like the positions you addressed (after Fant) a lot, and your player breakdowns are great.

I have them passing on Simmons in this mock to get more immediate production. I still feel like Simmons is a dark horse option they're going to strongly consider if the O-lineman they prefer are off the board. ACL injuries are not the curse they once were and on tape Simmons is a top 5 player in this class. 

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

@"NFL Draft Guru" do you have the Vikings passing on the DT Simmons in this mock and instead taking Fant, or do you think he'll be gone by #18 (or 19)? Regarding Fant... I hope we don't take him. 1st round TEs are dicey enough and when you add questions about work ethic, blocking abilities and mental makeup, it's just way too risky a pick for this team IMO. I love reading these mocks though so thank you and keep them coming! I like the positions you addressed (after Fant) a lot, and your player breakdowns are great.

I have them passing on Simmons in this mock to get more immediate production. I still feel like Simmons is a dark horse option they're going to strongly consider if the O-lineman they prefer are off the board. ACL injuries are not the curse they once were and on tape Simmons is a top 5 player in this class. 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

@"NFL Draft Guru" do you have the Vikings passing on the DT Simmons in this mock and instead taking Fant, or do you think he'll be gone by #18 (or 19)? Regarding Fant... I hope we don't take him. 1st round TEs are dicey enough and when you add questions about work ethic, blocking abilities and mental makeup, it's just way too risky a pick for this team IMO. I love reading these mocks though so thank you and keep them coming! I like the positions you addressed (after Fant) a lot, and your player breakdowns are great.

I have them passing on Simmons in this mock to get more immediate production. I still feel like Simmons is a dark horse option they're going to strongly consider if the O-lineman they prefer are off the board. ACL injuries are not the curse they once were and on tape Simmons is a top 5 player in this class. 

If the Vikings can somehow pull off a trade down involving Waynes, who I'd bet dollars to donuts is still very much in play, I'd love to see them grab an OL starter and Simmons. One idea I like is trading Waynes and #18 to the Raiders for #27 and #35. Maybe a little wishful thinking, but the combos they could draft are pretty enticing: Bradbury and Simmons, Risner and McGary, Ford and Simmons....