Let the excuses begin

@"Havoc1649" said: Only in Minnesota can you have a QB post a 70.1% completion rate for 4300 yards 30td’s against 10 int’s for a 99.7 rating and still be called a bust and/or blamed for being the team’s main reason for losing. It’s absurd. 

The man was sacked 40 times and we all know it could have been much much worse. The most recent stats I can find are through the end of November.

Cousins under pressure: sacked 28 times on pace for 41. 

As of December 1 Kirk Cousins was the most pressured QB in all of the NFL according to PFF.

At the time he was their 4th most efficient QB under pressure despite the continual onslaught most other successful QB’s simply don’t see.

As of the end of November Cousins was pressured an astounding 201 times. 40% of his drop backs! This number of pressures was nearly as much as our QB’s faced all of last season. The Vikings still had 5 games to go! I’m not sure the final tally but he was likely to face 300 pressures which would have come out to 50% of the time. He faced north of 50% pressured on 3rd downs. 

I know some of you as well as the media poo poo stats but stats matter - especially pressure when talking about a QB’s performance. When I evaluate a QB’s performance/draftability under pressure it’s the first thing I look at. It’s the one area that an elite QB will outshine others. 

Aaron Rogers was shown to be human this year seeing more pressure. He still saw less than Cousins yet posted a less than impressive 33.6% completion rate while under duress as of Dec 1. Tom Brady does not perform as he does seeing the onslaught Cousins faces every game. This is an extremely important facet for winning or losing.

Is this team stacked? Yes but only at certain positions. Our offensive line (kicker close second) is the number 1 reason this team is not in the playoffs. The stats are clear on this. It wasn’t that it made Cousins job difficult it made our running game implode. It’s super hard to win in the NFL without a running game. If one pays attention to what it takes to be a successful NFL QB you will realize how much of this team’s deficiencies were hidden by Cousins and our WR’s. 

I love Mike Hughes but like many of you desperately wanted another top lineman investment. This team MUST improve this line. Did losing their coach make a difference? There’s no way to know for sure but I think this team was better with him.

My point is there is much more to why this team didn’t make the playoffs. Coaching must improve  - having the guys ready to go and the line must be fixed. We keep a lot of our players next year. The right decisions must be made and it starts up front. 

Personally I wouldn’t touch our head coach or GM for at least another year but I get the angst. Just one guy’s opinion. Thanks for reading.

Deshaun Watson sacked 61 times and threw 101 less passes.

Russel Wilson sacked 51 times and threw 179 less passes.

All three are in the playoffs.  All three won their games yesterday.

Cousins had one of the better sacked rates in the NFL (he was like 6th best the last time I checked at like 5.6%).  Cousins threw for 7.1 yards per attempt (less than Bridgewater's 2015 at 7.2), 26th in the NFL.  Mr. Checkdown Bradford had 7.0 per attempt.  Keenum had 7.3.  All of his stats are a product of throwing the ball 606 times (4th most in the NFL).  Cousins was not the most pressured QB, that was Watson.  Cousins DID have the most pressures, again, because he threw the ball 606 times. 

Keenum was pressured on 39% of his dropbacks last season.  If Cousins 40% is still accurate (I think it actually came down), that is a difference of 6 pressures on the year compared to Keenum (1% of 600 is 6).  Do you think those 6 total pressures caused 5 fewer wins?

The Vikings had a higher yards per rush this year (4.2) than last year (3.9).

Last year the Vikings played 8 teams with a winning record (went 5-3) including 5 playoff teams.  The other 3 were against the Ravens (missed playoffs on last play of season) and a split with the Lions. This year Vikings played 7 teams with a winning record (went 1-6) and all of those were playoff teams mainly because the Vikings lost to those teams (1 more win in any game would have knocked out the Eagles).

2 new starters (kinda 3 with Remmers at RG) including a RT who didn't allow a single sack.

Cousins has 2 of the best WRs in the game.  Cousins has a dynamic (although a bit unproven) starting RB and a damn good change of pace RB.  Cousins has a consistently top ten TE.  Cousins has one of the best defenses in the NFL that he himself hindered with 5 turnover returns.  

I asked this question with Bradford and I'll ask it again.  If a QB needs everything perfect around him so that any QB could succeed, why have that QB?

Haven't commented in a while, and it seems a crappy season is what brings me in here, but I don't want to be a negative Nancy.  I'm just throwing out, or up, however it translates what I thought of things.

Defense:
Dbs playing off coverage too much - don't know if it's Zimmer's teachings, but that was most disappointing for me.  XR seemed/seems overrated.  Now, maybe his numbers show more, but he seems to get beat when he can't maul the WR.  I don't know how easy/hard it would be but his tackling is good so maybe move him to FS, if that's even plausible.  I like Anthony H., but something has to change with XR, IMO.  Trade, or fix...? 

Lack of blitzing - I have no problems if the Qb beats us with quick thinking defeating a blitz, but I can't stand allowing a QB to stand there and pick apart our defense. Exposed our DBs too often.

Offense:
OLine - I thought they were ok.  Not bad, but NOT good.  We were worse off if we didn't make any offseason moves (other than draft) so we were as good as could be, IMO.  With that said, still a big reason why we weren't as good on offense as we could be.  That and game planning/QB reads.  KC has got to see blitzes and audible (again, without insight this is speculative).

QB - disappointed as many are...KC seemed to soft, e.g. not aggressive.  Could be for many reasons I don't know so take with a LOT of salt...

How can we go from 7 or 8 100 yard games for Theilen to none, or whatever?  Something else happened that changed the entire game plan, or offensive energy.  This could be Zimmer's fault with his ultimatum, or influence on plan and pace.  I think when we won with passing that much he was happy, but when we lost he blamed the passing game/balance.

This being a year of a lot of  change, it's hard to fault one person or unit, too much.  However, there needs to be some (don't recreate the wheel) offseason movement and improvement to be sure there isn't a repeat.

I just think the team wasn't as good coming in as everyone thought (because they got to the NFCG).  They had a lot of luck in games and with the schedule last year with a lot of bad teams and when & where they played the decent teams.  The same things they struggled with last season showed up this season but it was more detrimental due to playing what turned out to be a tougher schedule.  I was looking at last year's schedule -- had we got this year's versions of all those teams we might have had about five more losses then too.

@"TBro" said:

@"StickyBun" said: No excuses. The offensive line is a joke and the D-line does not match up well with Chicago, but can anyone with a straight face tell you the Bears aren't the dominate team in the NFCN and look to be for the foreseeable future? They bitch slapped Minnesota around twice.

Agreed. PA said we will probably be picked to finish 3rd in the NFCN next season and I can't argue with that. In a draft that is stacked with defense this year, how are we going to fix our offensive line?

If you don't have an OL, your skill position players don't mean a damn thing. 
If you don't have an OL, your D is on the field more than it should.
If you don't have an OL, your OC is hamstrung regarding plays that can be called.
If you don't have an OL, your loaded roster is neutered. 

@"BarrNone55" said: If you don't have an OL, your skill position players don't mean a damn thing.  If you don't have an OL, your D is on the field more than it should. If you don't have an OL, your OC is hamstrung regarding plays that can be called. If you don't have an OL, your loaded roster is neutered. 

Outside of the obvious short comings of this team the one thing I noticed not in just yesterday's game but a couple times this year was no intensity. If you are in a game where you lose and you're done there were way to many players to my eyes that didn't give their all. That's on the head coach. If that is the current locker room then next won't  be different. Sad but true. 

@"comet52" said:

@"Jor-El" said:

But, sad as Sparano's death was, Spielman has been under-supplying the line for a decade and the guys he has brought in for that position have mostly been BAD selections. Yes, his supporters will call out O'Neill, Elflein, and Reiff - but he missed badly using the #3 pick in the draft on Kalil

I can buy some of what you're saying but this is ridiculous - Kalil was a consensus top pick from everyone everywhere, no one criticized that move at the time including you.  He even got dopey Cleveland to give up a pick in the process.   The fact that Kalil's knees gave out after one year is not a g.m.'s mistake.   It's just the crap that happens, like Sparano dying.

@"Purplemachine" said: Outside of the obvious short comings of this team the one thing I noticed not in just yesterday's game but a couple times this year was no intensity. If you are in a game where you lose and you're done there were way to many players to my eyes that didn't give their all. That's on the head coach. If that is the current locker room then next won't  be different. Sad but true. 

@"silverjoel" said:

@"BarrNone55" said: If you don't have an OL, your skill position players don't mean a damn thing.  If you don't have an OL, your D is on the field more than it should. If you don't have an OL, your OC is hamstrung regarding plays that can be called. If you don't have an OL, your loaded roster is neutered. 

https://www.twitter.com/MatthewColler/status/1079622982065106944

@"BarrNone55" said:

@"silverjoel" said:

@"BarrNone55" said: If you don't have an OL, your skill position players don't mean a damn thing.  If you don't have an OL, your D is on the field more than it should. If you don't have an OL, your OC is hamstrung regarding plays that can be called. If you don't have an OL, your loaded roster is neutered. 

https://www.twitter.com/MatthewColler/status/1079622982065106944

He was also the most pressured QB in the NFL, another stat. 

It’s not necessarily from holding the ball too long. “Pressure” means the blocking broke down. Just because a QB can shift around (which takes time) doesn’t mean the ability to set feet, time with WR’s, or look down field aren’t impacted. Pessure causes check downs. 

What else impacts QB play? Last I checked Kirk Cousins does not call our plays. Pass attempts/rushes etc are set by coaches. 

*The Vikings finished 30th in rushing yards this year. 

*The Vikings 4.2 avg was 24th in the league

* The Vikings were 28th in rushing TD’s

* The Vikings despite rushing much less than normal had the 3rd most negative plays rushing to the right

**** rushing center and right they were more successful avoiding negative plays coming in between 20-25 but like with the first stat they did not run as much as other teams

What do we take from this? Our rush game was pretty weak for a playoff team. There have been teams in the past who’ve made the playiffs relying so strongly on a QB’s arm but they are not common. 

Some next gen stats:

On actual air distance thrown (removes yac from the average throw and provides a clearer indicator of which QB is actually making longer throws) 

Cousins was 3rd avg length of throw through the air (not field yards)

Cousins runs midle of the pack on most next gen stats but this one popped out as interesting

Another is completion percentage above expectation. 

One other interesting thing to note - Cousins and Tom Brady have nearly identical next gen stats.

@"BarrNone55" said: 

@"silverjoel" said:

@"BarrNone55" said: If you don't have an OL, your skill position players don't mean a damn thing.  If you don't have an OL, your D is on the field more than it should. If you don't have an OL, your OC is hamstrung regarding plays that can be called. If you don't have an OL, your loaded roster is neutered. 

https://www.twitter.com/MatthewColler/status/1079622982065106944

He was also the most pressured QB in the NFL, another stat. 

@"Havoc1649" said:

Some next gen stats:

On actual air distance thrown (removes yac from the average throw and provides a clearer indicator of which QB is actually making longer throws) 

Cousins was 3rd avg length of throw through the air (not field yards)

Cousins runs midle of the pack on most next gen stats but this one popped out as interesting

Another is completion percentage above expectation. 

The probability of a pass completion, based on numerous factors such as receiver separation from the nearest defender, where the receiver is on the field, the separation the passer had at time of throw from the nearest pass rusher, and more. This is correlated with QB’s expected accuracy. 

Cousins comes in 3rd in the league behind Drew Brees and Nick Foles.

One other interesting thing to note - Cousins and Tom Brady have nearly identical next gen stats.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/passing#average-completed-yards
He's not 3rd on the CYA (completed Air Yards) or IAY (intended Air Yards)  Cousins CYA 5.6 is equal to Brady's and Keenum's for that matter but no where near the top three of 8.8, 8.4 and 7.3.  His IAY is 7.4, once again no where near the top three of 11, 10.9 and 10.2.

https://www.twitter.com/LukeBraunNFL/status/1079776344072949760?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fminnesotavikingsnation.com%2Fthread%2F36351%2Fcousins-clean-pocket

@"BarrNone55" said: If you don't have an OL, your skill position players don't mean a damn thing.  If you don't have an OL, your D is on the field more than it should. If you don't have an OL, your OC is hamstrung regarding plays that can be called. If you don't have an OL, your loaded roster is neutered. 

Some other interesting info I’ve come across:

Delvin Cook posted the 2nd fastest in game speed for ball carriers in the NFL. He hit 22.07mph during his 70 yard run in week 9.

Marcus Williams of the Saints had the fastest sack at 1.54 seconds. It was .5 seconds faster than all others.

Taylor Gabriel delivered an 8 yard rush that traversed 120 yards in week 16.

Courtland Sutton of the Broncos ran 131.7 yards to chase down and tackle a defensive player after an interception in the end zone. He got him at the 1 yard line at the other end.

Fastest in game players since 2016:

@silverjoel you're right...Cousins had all day to throw and Cook had gaping holes to run through...

@"BarrNone55" said: @silverjoel you're right...Cousins had all day to throw and Cook had gaping holes to run through...

Team rushing yards per attempt
2017 - 3.9
2018 - 4.2

I will never understand why some people trash the team to defend "their" player.2018 Cousins was pressured at 37%.
2017 Keenum was pressured at 39%. 
2016 Bradford was pressured at 33%. 
2015 Bridgewater was pressured at 46%.

The 2 QBs that get the most excesses from above also had the lowest pressure rate.  The other 2, the team was the reason for success.  Let's get back to that, winning and blaming the QB.

@"Purplemachine" said: Outside of the obvious short comings of this team the one thing I noticed not in just yesterday's game but a couple times this year was no intensity. If you are in a game where you lose and you're done there were way to many players to my eyes that didn't give their all. That's on the head coach. If that is the current locker room then next won't  be different. Sad but true. 

We all know about the interior line being the weak link of the whole team but I always got the sense that even if our offense started to click our defense could not be counted on despite nice stats.  Too many good teams had no problem against our defense that is very overrated.  You watch a defense like the Bears and Ravens and we are not in the same breathe IMO.  

Think about what the Bears did to us on Sunday.  They had very little to play for especially when you can all see the scoreboard and the Rams were carving up the 49'ers.  Yet, they come into our stadium and literally smack us in the mouth from the beginning and to the end with barely a whimper.  Winning by 2 TD's on the road in todays NFL is a massacre and we "needed" the game and they did not.  

To me that is a wake up call.  It is better that we showed no heart at home because that shows me the character of this team.  It is not a tough team.  If somehow we had won some would be satisfied somewhat at making the playoffs to only get destroyed.

I'm just one die-hard veteran fan who has watched every single game (most twice) for 40 years.  I am usually slow on slinging around blame and have been very supportive of Zimmer but I really think the wake up call is that he is not the guy to get this team to take the next step.  Last year, it took a miracle to have the wonderful opportunity to embarrass the franchise in shit-hole Philly.  Followed that up with this season long heartless team effort.

As purplemachine said - no intensity.

That is coaching!

IMO - we need a new offense oriented HC otherwise we will sleep walk through another season.  

Of course, as a manager myself, it is easy to complain but hard to offer solutions :).  Who is there that might be able to take this team and bring them up a notch?  I have no idea, I am not the GM of a football team:)  But the obvious is someone more offense oriented.  The 2 most surprising team this year (IMO) are the Bears with Nagy and the Colts with Reich.  Last year, McVay was all the rage.  

Conclusion for me after this Sunday's complete flop - time for Zimmer to retire or go to Cinncy.  The players on this team, all three units, need to shaken-up or paddle-shocked into showing some F'in heart!