Fun with stats Kirk Cousins

Viking fans have gotten so used to shitty QB play over the past 40 years that a warm body that throws 5 yard completions is a hero.

His rating and QBR have regressed each of the three seasons and looking at stats/splits he plays worse when behind, as the season progresses and against division opponents and he ahs a career losing record.

It's seems some of the criticisms/concerns may have some merit-at least on the surface.  What part is him and what part is his situation?  IDK, but I hope they do.

On the Flip side he's dealt with a progressively worse cast of characters on both sides of the ball playing QB for an Owner still smarting over the RGIII debacle.

@"NodakViking" said: His rating and QBR have regressed each of the three seasons and looking at stats/splits he plays worse when behind, as the season progresses and against division opponents and he ahs a career losing record.

It's seems some of the criticisms/concerns may have some merit-at least on the surface.  What part is him and what part is his situation?  IDK, but I hope they do.

Where does it show he plays bad from behind?

Here is one year which was last year after losing his top two WRs and having very little running game ...
http://www.nfl.com/player/kirkcousins/2532820/situationalstats?season=2017
In 2016 his stats are pretty dang good when playing from behind
http://www.nfl.com/player/kirkcousins/2532820/situationalstats?season=2016
In 2015 his stats were good when playing from behind
http://www.nfl.com/player/kirkcousins/2532820/situationalstats?season=2015

http://www.nfl.com/player/kirkcousins/2532820/careerstats
His first year starting was 2015 and he completed 69.8% of his passes for 4,166 yards with 29 TDs and 11 INTs.  His rating was 101.6.
His second year starting was 2016 and he completed 67% of his passes for 4,917 yards with 25 TDs and 12 INTs.  His rating was 97.2.
His third year starting was 2017 and he completed 64% of his passes for
4,093 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs.  His rating was 93.9.

Aaron Rodgers started in his 4th season as well.
http://www.nfl.com/player/aaronrodgers/2506363/careerstats
His first year starting was 2008 and he completed 63.6% of his passes
for 4,038 yards with 28 TDs and 13 INTs.  His rating was 93.8.
His
second year starting was 2009 and he completed 64.7% of his passes for
4,434 yards with 30 TDs and 7 INTs.  His rating was 103.2.
His third year starting was 2010 and he completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,922 yards with 28 TDs and 11 INTs.  His rating was 101.2.

Now Cousins is not Rodgers and the Packers did win the Super Bowl in that 2010 season.  Their defense was #2 in points allowed per game and #5 in yards allowed per game and had the #2 number of interceptions at 24.

Cousins did not have much of a defense at all the last 3 years.  They gave up between 23 and 24 points on average per year.

Now some will make the inane argument that he was putting up garbage time stats.  Well, if the defense cannot stop anyone then he has to try to score more. 

All I know is that he got them to the playoffs in 2015, his first season starting every game and they should have made the playoffs in 2016 if the lousy defense could have protected a 17-13 lead with 1:05 left in a game vs the Lions and if the kicker could have made a 23 yard field goal in overtime vs the Bengals.  Instead of finishing 8-7-1 they should or could have been 10-6 and back in the playoffs again.  Last year they did not re-sign his two leading receivers and offered no running game. 

How anyone can blame him for last year is a mystery.

It seems that there is some bias against Cousins and people want to bring up imaginary stats that really do not tell the whole story.  I think the bias is that many (not saying you) are pro Teddy and really want to see him run this team.

Kirk Cousins has had a fantastic start to his career and it is right up there with some of the best.

If he signs here he would have a much much better defense here and would not be playing from behind as much.  I hope.

Thanks MarkSP18 for pulling together all of that info.  Very interesting read!

@"MarkSP18" said:

@"NodakViking" said: His rating and QBR have regressed each of the three seasons and looking at stats/splits he plays worse when behind, as the season progresses and against division opponents and he ahs a career losing record.

It's seems some of the criticisms/concerns may have some merit-at least on the surface.  What part is him and what part is his situation?  IDK, but I hope they do.

Where does it show he plays bad from behind?

Here is one year which was last year after losing his top two WRs and having very little running game ...
http://www.nfl.com/player/kirkcousins/2532820/situationalstats?season=2017
In 2016 his stats are pretty dang good when playing from behind
http://www.nfl.com/player/kirkcousins/2532820/situationalstats?season=2016
In 2015 his stats were good when playing from behind
http://www.nfl.com/player/kirkcousins/2532820/situationalstats?season=2015

http://www.nfl.com/player/kirkcousins/2532820/careerstats
His first year starting was 2015 and he completed 69.8% of his passes for 4,166 yards with 29 TDs and 11 INTs.  His rating was 101.6.
His second year starting was 2016 and he completed 67% of his passes for 4,917 yards with 25 TDs and 12 INTs.  His rating was 97.2.
His third year starting was 2017 and he completed 64% of his passes for
4,093 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs.  His rating was 93.9.

Aaron Rodgers started in his 4th season as well.
http://www.nfl.com/player/aaronrodgers/2506363/careerstats
His first year starting was 2008 and he completed 63.6% of his passes
for 4,038 yards with 28 TDs and 13 INTs.  His rating was 93.8.
His
second year starting was 2009 and he completed 64.7% of his passes for
4,434 yards with 30 TDs and 7 INTs.  His rating was 103.2.
His third year starting was 2010 and he completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,922 yards with 28 TDs and 11 INTs.  His rating was 101.2.

Now Cousins is not Rodgers and the Packers did win the Super Bowl in that 2010 season.  Their defense was #2 in points allowed per game and #5 in yards allowed per game and had the #2 number of interceptions at 24.

Cousins did not have much of a defense at all the last 3 years.  They gave up between 23 and 24 points on average per year.

Now some will make the inane argument that he was putting up garbage time stats.  Well, if the defense cannot stop anyone then he has to try to score more. 

All I know is that he got them to the playoffs in 2015, his first season starting every game and they should have made the playoffs in 2016 if the lousy defense could have protected a 17-13 lead with 1:05 left in a game vs the Lions and if the kicker could have made a 23 yard field goal in overtime vs the Bengals.  Instead of finishing 8-7-1 they should or could have been 10-6 and back in the playoffs again.  Last year they did not re-sign his two leading receivers and offered no running game. 

How anyone can blame him for last year is a mystery.

It seems that there is some bias against Cousins and people want to bring up imaginary stats that really do not tell the whole story.  I think the bias is that many (not saying you) are pro Teddy and really want to see him run this team.

Kirk Cousins has had a fantastic start to his career and it is right up there with some of the best.

If he signs here he would have a much much better defense here and would not be playing from behind as much.  I hope.

Wow, his stats in the red zone just plummet...

Ints skyrocket when behind...

Stats are stats. Fans will find pluses or minuses in them for their own preferences and they will tell a story for their point of view.

Here's what I'll say: what happened to all the people who said they'd get behind whomever Minnesota ends up signing? We all have our favorites, I guess, but I see some stronger opposition for Cousins with a few. Why? This decision would come after LONG consideration from the Viking's organization and input from the new offensive coordinator. Nothing is guaranteed, that's for sure. Risk for any choice.

@"StickyBun" said: Stats are stats. Fans will find pluses or minuses in them for their own preferences and they will tell a story for their point of view.

Here's what I'll say: what happened to all the people who said they'd get behind whomever Minnesota ends up signing? We all have our favorites, I guess, but I see some stronger opposition for Cousins with a few. Why? This decision would come after LONG consideration from the Viking's organization and input from the new offensive coordinator. Nothing is guaranteed, that's for sure. Risk for any choice.

Couldn't the same be asked of those banging the drum so soundly in favor of cousins?   Some of the rhetoric about  Sam, Teddy and even Case is rediculous.   Or aren't the kissin cousins among those that said they would support whoever the leadership picks?  This is going to be a debate until the decision is made....and no matter who gets signed there will always be the grass is greener scenarios that pop up....even though that lawn is full of dog shit.   :)  

@"NodakViking" said: His rating and QBR have regressed each of the three seasons and looking at stats/splits he plays worse when behind, as the season progresses and against division opponents and he ahs a career losing record.

It's seems some of the criticisms/concerns may have some merit-at least on the surface.  What part is him and what part is his situation?  IDK, but I hope they do.

well unfortunaley cinderella isnt avalible to sign. we either figure this out now or our window of historically great defense closes. keenum got us to the nfcc. it would have been interesting to see what the team woulda look like with cousins 

I'm not saying that I'm not behind the guy, I'm saying there's some fairly glaring weaknesses in his game...and I didnt even bring up the alarming tendancy to fumble... do we want to pony up 28million plus for this guy, or does a good 8-10 million less a year for Keenum and Sheldon Richardson at 3T make us as better team...

I'm not picking a horse, though I've stated my position on an otherwise healthy Bridgewater (I feel he still has significant upside if the price is right which it should be).  Whoever they pick I'm behind, I just hope they pick the right guy for the job.  If you're committing franchise QB money and years to a guy he better be the right guy, no better way than to set a club back 5 years than to overcommit to a dud.

Nightmare scenario is a major commitment to a guy that can't get it done while a guy we let go(all QB's included) goes on to great success.

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"StickyBun" said: Stats are stats. Fans will find pluses or minuses in them for their own preferences and they will tell a story for their point of view.

Here's what I'll say: what happened to all the people who said they'd get behind whomever Minnesota ends up signing? We all have our favorites, I guess, but I see some stronger opposition for Cousins with a few. Why? This decision would come after LONG consideration from the Viking's organization and input from the new offensive coordinator. Nothing is guaranteed, that's for sure. Risk for any choice.

Couldn't the same be asked of those banging the drum so soundly in favor of cousins?   Some of the rhetoric about  Sam, Teddy and even Case is rediculous.   Or aren't the kissin cousins among those that said they would support whoever the leadership picks?  This is going to be a debate until the decision is made....and no matter who gets signed there will always be the grass is greener scenarios that pop up....even though that lawn is full of dog shit.   :)  

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"StickyBun" said: Stats are stats. Fans will find pluses or minuses in them for their own preferences and they will tell a story for their point of view.

Here's what I'll say: what happened to all the people who said they'd get behind whomever Minnesota ends up signing? We all have our favorites, I guess, but I see some stronger opposition for Cousins with a few. Why? This decision would come after LONG consideration from the Viking's organization and input from the new offensive coordinator. Nothing is guaranteed, that's for sure. Risk for any choice.

Couldn't the same be asked of those banging the drum so soundly in favor of cousins?   Some of the rhetoric about  Sam, Teddy and even Case is rediculous.   Or aren't the kissin cousins among those that said they would support whoever the leadership picks?  This is going to be a debate until the decision is made....and no matter who gets signed there will always be the grass is greener scenarios that pop up....even though that lawn is full of dog shit.   :)  

I trust the process. And I'm trusting the process more and more as each minor decision is made leading up the big decision. 

1. Do not sign Case Keenum before season's end, which many fans and media wanted. Check.
2. Do not sign any QB until you've had a chance to hire an OC, involve him in the decision, and watch a ton of film of each option and how that option fits into the new offense. Check. So far, so good anyway. 

As long as they make their decision based on objective analysis and thoughtful debate, I trust they'll make a good decision. 

@"BarrNone55" said: I'm not saying that I'm not behind the guy, I'm saying there's some fairly glaring weaknesses in his game...and I didnt even bring up the alarming tendancy to fumble... do we want to pony up 28million plus for this guy, or does a good 8-10 million less a year for Keenum and Sheldon Richardson at 3T make us as better team...

If you don't try to get the QB spot correct, the rest won't matter that much. And there's no guarantee that signing Keenum will get us Richardson, its not like its a direct 100% correlative effect. But I completely understand that Cousins wouldn't come without some warts and questions. 

As great as the 13 win season was, the team was one miracle play from going one and done at home in the playoffs....and then got ANNIHILATED in Philly. I guess my original point stands, if they truly do pursue Cousins hard as their top choice, aren't they the ones with the most intimate knowledge about the participants? Especially with Flip now on board? Heck, they might not even be interested in Cousins, who knows? But it would appear that they are. 

No, signing Case doesn't mean we get Richardson, but it does mean (probably) that you still have the cap space to go after him or Sitton...

I guess I'm more willing to put my faith in Case, what the trend analysis shows, and the cap flexibility,  than Cousins with his 30 fumbles in the last three years, grounding the ball on 4th down, and routinely channelling his inner Tony Romo...

@"BarrNone55" said: I'm not saying that I'm not behind the guy, I'm saying there's some fairly glaring weaknesses in his game...and I didnt even bring up the alarming tendancy to fumble... do we want to pony up 28million plus for this guy, or does a good 8-10 million less a year for Keenum and Sheldon Richardson at 3T make us as better team...

This fumbling issue is kind of comical to me.  The dude is getting hit from behind (most of the time) by much larger dudes and some of them are stripping the ball.  I never put those fumbles on the QB.  I put it on the offensive lineman who did not do their jobs.  Keenum fumbled vs the Eagles in the red zone.  Was not his fault.  Brady fumbled at the end of the game in the Super Bowl.  Was not his fault.

I am certain that many of the fumbles (some in the red zone) that Kirk has had are not his fault.

I only care about the lost fumbles and most of the time, if I were coaching, I would be yelling at the offensive lineman.

Kirk has 94 TDs and 47 total turnovers (lost fumbles only) the last 3 years (which happen to be his first 3 years starting) which puts him in the top 6 of all QBs in the NFL during that time.

That is pretty freaking good especially when you consider the lack of a running game and that they did not re-sign his top two receivers in 2017.

Imagine Case or Teddy or anyone coming here but the Vikings let Diggs and Thielen go.

The 94 TDs is the most important stat.  If he could bring that to this defense then it could be dominant!

Washington Redskins have had one of the better OL's in the league the last few years.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-offensive-line-units-heading-into-the-2017-season
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-by-average-grade-week-5
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-nfl-offensive-lines-this-season
https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ranking-all-32-offensive-lines-this-season

Some perspective.  Kirk is a good QB but he is not without questions/flaws.  The main concern is his reputation (backed by stats) for the tendency to shrink in crucial situations.  If we are all in on big money long term deal I hope that isn't what we get.
Would you rather have an average QB who plays well in crucial situations(Case?/Teddy?) or a good QB who folds especially when the latter is going to be far more expensive?

Why are we picking QB's based off stats? If you turn on Cousins film he's a very different player than the stats sheet shows. Put it this way, his stats and W/L record is comparable to Stafford. Watch both of them on film for 3+ games and you're going to wonder how. Stafford passes the eye test while Cousins has his moments but also makes some really boneheaded decisions with the ball. I am not anti-Cousins but I two have two big questions on how he fits in MN. 

1. He is much better throwing in-breaking routes than towards the boundary. He is more effective and visibly more comfortable when throwing up the seam. McVay and Gruden implemented a lot of skinny posts in 2016 to take advantage of it. It's an easy read and they have a natural mismatch with Crowder/Grant in the slot. On anything out breaking Kirk is fine when he can put it on a line. But anything with air under it is inaccurate.  In 2017 the Vikings dominated on the boundaries. They ran some underneath drags and rubs, but the majority of their production came on the outsides of the field. So with Cousins you're going to need to change what you were good at a season ago to play to his strengths. 

2. Taking Kirk out of his current offense and plopping him into DeFilippo's system is riskier than most people think. When Kirk understands his keys and has a pre-snap understanding of what the defense is doing, things go smoothly. He's been surrounded by some of the best offensive minds in the game the past three years to help slow things down for him. The built in keys have served him extremely well. When things don't go to plan or Kirk's surprised things go off the rails pretty quick. That's really where Case shined last year, making the improbable plays. But you're forced questioning how effective Kirk will be if he doesn't have the same level of supporting cast from a coaching standpoint. Nothing against DeFilippo or Stefanski, change just can lead to surprises.