Best (and most likely) possible outcome of the Vikings’ quarterback situation?
http://www.1500espn.com/vikings-2/2018/02/best-likely-possible-outcome-vikings-quarterback-situation/
Last week, MMQB’s Peter King wrote his potential landing spots for
every free agent quarterback. For the Minnesota Vikings, King projected
that Teddy Bridgewater and Case Keenum will both be on the roster when
2018 opens. But that’s far from the only possibility. So let’s have a
look at five potential quarterback scenarios for the Vikings…
Teddy Bridgewater-Josh McCown
Pluses:
If the Vikings make Bridgewater their set-in-stone starter heading
into camp, that means they are highly confident in his health. They have
more information about his status than any other team or anyone on the
outside and have seen him practice from October to the end of the
season. Bridgewater would find himself a much better situation than the
one he last had in 2015 with two elite receivers, an improved offensive
line and a top-notch all-around running back.
McCown played well for the New York Jets last season after winning
their starting job in camp. He had similar numbers to Case Keenum with a
94.5 rating and an adjusted completion percentage on deep passes that
only trails Drew Brees among free agents. If the Vikings had to turn
things over to McCown, they could still remain competitive so long as
Mike Zimmer’s defense is elite again. McCown would also be OK with a
backup job at age 39 and he has previous experience working with John
DeFilippo.
Drawbacks:
While he’s played well at times, it would be a lot to ask McCown to
lead the Vikings anywhere if Bridgewater got hurt or struggled mightily.
No matter how much the Vikings have seen in practice, it’s difficult to
project whether Bridgewater will return to the form of late 2015 and
preseason 2016, in which the team believed he would take the next step
toward becoming a top-notch QB. There’s a chance the Vikings could end
up back at square one.
Why it’s the best outcome: Bridgewater still has a
ceiling to reach. He’s already proven that he can win. If he comes back
healthy, the Vikings could very well have their QB for the next decade.
In the worst case scenario, McCown gives them a chance to compete.
Odds of it happening: Very high
Teddy Bridgewater-Case Keenum
Pluses:
This scenario would mean an old fashioned quarterback competition.
Bridgewater would have to prove in the preseason and camp that he is
truly back to form despite missing the past two seasons. Likewise Keenum
could attempt to prove that his strong 2017 was not a small sample size
fluke.
If Bridgewater did win the job, his backup option would be a
quarterback who has proven he can take a good team to a division title.
If Keenum won the job, the Vikings could trade Bridgewater. And if you
think he wouldn’t have interest, the Miami Dolphins reportedly called on
Bridgewater last year before he’d even been medically cleared.
Keenum would have a shot to show he is worthy of a long-team deal
(assuming he’s franchise tagged) and a full training camp would provide
Bridgewater a chance to return to this spot as there Vikings’ franchise
quarterback.
Drawbacks:
If Keenum loses the job in camp, he’ll be the highest paid backup in
the NFL at around $23 million on the franchise tag and trading him
wouldn’t be an option considering the risk involved with Bridgewater’s
knee. While $23 million would make most of us happy, Keenum certainly
believes his 2017 performance proved him worthy of a starting job
somewhere. Last year it was easy for Keenum and Bridgewater to cheer for
each other and for the locker room to be (mostly) behind Keenum. This
time around, there’s a distinct possibility of friction within the
locker room. The Keenum-Bridgewater dynamic would be a storyline and
debate all season. If things don’t go perfectly, the noise will be
difficult to ignore.
Why it’s the best outcome: It buys the Vikings more time to find out whether Bridgewater is back to 100 percent and/or Keenum can be a franchise QB.
Odds of it happening: High
Kirk Cousins-Kyle SloterPluses:
Debates have raged on over whether Cousins is a top tier quarterback
or mid-pack, but when Washington had a great supporting cast in 2015, he
put up big numbers, leading the NFL in completion percentage and
posting a 101.6 rating. Cousins is virtually guaranteed to lock down the
position for years to come – which is something the Vikings can’t say
for sure about their other QB options. The 30-year-old QB is a high
character player who will work incredibly hard to maximize all of his
talent.
If the Vikings sign Cousins, they won’t have much to spend on a
backup. They clearly like Sloter considering the Vikings released tight
end Kyle Carter to make room for Sam Bradford in the playoffs rather
than waiving him.
Drawbacks:
Cousins has some frustrating moments. His last three years have
included some frustrating moments, including turnovers at big times and
disappointing performances at the most important situations. He’s been a
mediocre QB on third downs and when down in the fourth quarter, which
could be caused by opponents being able to scheme to slow him down. The
Vikings are looking at their QB situation through the lens of the Super
Bowl. They are not simply trying to be competitive.
Paying out $30 million per season is feisable over the next few years
with the Vikings’ cap situation, but it could present challenges down
the road. And signing Cousins means there are no takebacks. He’s the
face of the franchise whether it works out or not.
Why it’s the best outcome: Cousins provides stability and
certainty at the position. He will be good enough to have the Vikings in
the mix during their winning window.
Odds of it happening: Unlikely, but possible
Case Keenum-AJ McCarronPluses:
If Bridgewater does not stay in Minnesota, the Vikings could keep the
quarterback that led them to the NFC Championship game and has a high
level of familiarity with the Vikings’ staff and receivers. But with
some question marks still around Keenum, McCarron would give him
competition in camp and a QB with some potential upside. He only played
three regular season games back in 2015, but performed well, posting a
97.5 rating.
Drawbacks:
Regression is a major concern with Keenum. His QB rating before 2017
was 78.5 and two different teams decided to move on from him. If he
can’t repeat his success, there is also no guarantee that McCarron is
anything more than a backup. He was a fourth-round pick coming out of
Alabama and played a very conservative style in the action he received
back in ‘15.
Why it’s the best outcome: With the Vikings’ top-notch
supporting cast, they would have a decent chance at repeating last
year’s results with Keenum. When he played for St. Louis/Los Angeles, he
didn’t have much to work with. The Vikings also wouldn’t have to sign
onto him long term and would have a potential long-term QB in McCarron.
Odds of it happening: Low
Sam Bradford-Lamar JacksonPluses:
If Bridgewater moves along, the Vikings will need another long-term
plan. It’s tough to get a feel on where the NFL ranks Lamar Jackson, The
2016 Heisman Trophy winner from Louisville has received some bizarre
criticisms in the media, but inside NFL front offices, there could be
more interest than draft experts are saying. But if he drops to No. 30,
the Vikings should be interested. Jackson might need a year to sit (a la
Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City), which would require the Vikings to
have a win-now quarterback. Bradford’s knee injuries are likely to scare
teams away from committing to him long term. With an improved offensive
line and running game, Bradford could make the Vikings very competitive
if he remained healthy.
Drawbacks:
The Vikings are in the middle of a winning window. Relying on
Bradford to stay healthy is very risky. There’s also no guarantee they
could get Jackson or any other reasonably good quarterback prospect in
the draft. By the time the draft comes around, many – if not all – other
quality QB options would be off the table.
Why it’s the best outcome: We have seen a number of
good QB prospects drop down the draft board for reasons outside of
what’s important and predictive of success (see: Bridgewater Pro Day).
Jackson has an incredibly high ceiling. Bradford might also prove that
his knee can stay healthy. He’s got the talent to be a franchise QB.
Odds of it happening: Very low
Bottom line
Each one of the Vikings’ options has risks. Cousins is the closest to
a sure thing, but he’s an expensive sure thing. Bridgewater’s health is
worrisome, but the best outcome of him coming back is that the Vikings
have their franchise QB again. Keenum’s small sample size success means
that if he’s back, he can’t be the only capable QB there. And Bradford’s
knee issues would make him difficult to rest playoff hopes on.
Wish there were an option here I could get behind 100%...But I don't see any elite qb's listed. Maybe all we need is a tier 2 guy with this surround?
Dont know anymore...
With all these young qb developing offensive coaches that have been brought in, could a qb draft pick be soon to follow...?
Before the season I would have taken McCown over Case, now not so much. But this year the money is a big difference. Ideally Teddy, Case and Kyle will be the situation, but won't happen. I can see Case not wanting any part of being on roster with Teddy, hard to be playing loose and easy looking over your shoulder at a fan favorite. Sam would be more comfortable in that situation. Like I said in another thread, drunk, fat and stupid is my comfort zone, glad I'm not GM. Lot of gambling with big bucks and high expectations.
If everything, physically, is as advertised, Teddy, Sam and Kyle will be there, my final guess.
IMO it comes down to what the team knows/thinks about Bridgewater. If they feel good about his medical and what they've seen on the field since he returned they aren't going to let him get away, he was too well regarded by them to believe they would just move on if he checks out medically and in practice. If they have doubts or concerns they would have to get him on a friendly contract and have serious competition/options alongside him like Case/Sam/AJ/McCown.
Of course if they have any confidence at all in Sloter being close he could be the plan B and grab a rookie for long term insurance. Cousins is kind of the wild card, if they have interest and are serious about pursuing him I don't see anybody but maybe Sam sticking around with Kirk at the top of the chart so they'd have to get a guy like McCown or a rookie with Sloter being the #2.
Can't wait until this decision is made so I can focus on the draft...
I think it'll come down to what we started with... Bradpool and Teddy. Flip loves Bradpool's arm, and Teddy (esp if his contract tolls) will be EZ Insurance. Case is a super swell guy but he's gonna get *paid* after this season, likely by a horrible team that will make him unhappy on the field. We can't realistically carry what Keenum is gonna get plus Teddy unless Teddy tolls... and Flip's input works against that as well. Bradpool will come out of this offseason QB scramble as a bargain, methinks.
@"Al (The Lochstar) Heurung" said: I think it'll come down to what we started with... Bradpool and Teddy. Flip loves Bradpool's arm, and Teddy (esp if his contract tolls) will be EZ Insurance. Case is a super swell guy but he's gonna get *paid* after this season, likely by a horrible team that will make him unhappy on the field. We can't realistically carry what Keenum is gonna get plus Teddy unless Teddy tolls... and Flip's input works against that as well. Bradpool will come out of this offseason QB scramble as a bargain, methinks.Perhaps...I don't know how much fire he's got in the belly anymore? He's made a ton of $$$. But man, he's got the elite arm of the 3.
Wish he was healthy moving forward, I dont know if that's the case or not? Just like Bridgewater. I sure don't believe a word Zimmer says regarding players health anymore.
Interesting that they think Teddy and Case is an option but not Teddy and Brad.
@"MaroonBells" said: Interesting that they think Teddy and Case is an option but not Teddy and Brad.That would be my first choice. Between the two of them we should be fine and if they are both good....all the better. However of the 3 those 2 are probably the least likely to settle for a #2 role imo.
@"JimmyinSD" said:I don't know. If Case has any kind of knowledge that the Vikings are keeping Bridgewater, I'm not sure why he'd not just sign elsewhere. He knows the Vikings give him the best chance to repeat what he did last year, but there's a pretty even chance he doesn't even win the job.@"MaroonBells" said: Interesting that they think Teddy and Case is an option but not Teddy and Brad. That would be my first choice. Between the two of them we should be fine and if they are both good....all the better. However of the 3 those 2 are probably the least likely to settle for a #2 role imo.I do kinda like the idea of signing two and trading the one who doesn't win the starting job. That gives the "loser" the opportunity to start and the Vikings some currency. Then backup becomes a top priority in 2nd and 3rd tier free agency.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:I don't know. If Case has any kind of knowledge that the Vikings are keeping Bridgewater, I'm not sure why he'd not just sign elsewhere. He knows the Vikings give him the best chance to repeat what he did last year, but there's a pretty even chance he doesn't even win the job.@"MaroonBells" said: Interesting that they think Teddy and Case is an option but not Teddy and Brad. That would be my first choice. Between the two of them we should be fine and if they are both good....all the better. However of the 3 those 2 are probably the least likely to settle for a #2 role imo.I do kinda like the idea of signing two and trading the one who doesn't win the starting job. That gives the "loser" the opportunity to start and the Vikings some currency. Then backup becomes a top priority in 2nd and 3rd tier free agency.
somebody thinks you are humorous... I think you are pretty spot on in terms of Case being the weakest camp QB of the bunch. His talents shine in live game situations, but he didnt look very good in camp and unfortunately that is where a lot of the decisions are made. If Heineke hadnt shit the bed in his last preseason performance, would he have been kept over Case? I know in mankato Case was pretty unimpressive the 2 days I was there, but when the lights came on his game was much better.
@"Al (The Lochstar) Heurung" said: I think it'll come down to what we started with... Bradpool and Teddy. Flip loves Bradpool's arm, and Teddy (esp if his contract tolls) will be EZ Insurance. Case is a super swell guy but he's gonna get *paid* after this season, likely by a horrible team that will make him unhappy on the field. We can't realistically carry what Keenum is gonna get plus Teddy unless Teddy tolls... and Flip's input works against that as well. Bradpool will come out of this offseason QB scramble as a bargain, methinks.
Bradford+Bridgewater may be Spielman's dream, but I think it will be challenging to see happen. The money for both (or either + Keenum) is going to be too much unless either Bridgewater's contract tolls or Bradford's knee looks dicey. The "will Teddy be tolled" debate has been held enough and without any way for us fans to know, so leaving that alone. But re Bradford, I really think that if he is feeling really strong, he and his agent know he can work out in Arizona or Denver and that magic arm will get coaches and OCs and GMs excited. His health should never be trusted again but someone will and he'll get $15-20M/year, if only short term. IMO the only way Vikings get Bradford for less than $15M is if he is walking wounded so he's afraid to test the market - in which case, be done with him.
Personally, I would part ways with both our "B" QBs. Either is bound to have us holding our breath after every low hit or landing on a knee, and will eventually break our hearts and another season.
@"JimmyinSD" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said:I don't know. If Case has any kind of knowledge that the Vikings are keeping Bridgewater, I'm not sure why he'd not just sign elsewhere. He knows the Vikings give him the best chance to repeat what he did last year, but there's a pretty even chance he doesn't even win the job.@"MaroonBells" said: Interesting that they think Teddy and Case is an option but not Teddy and Brad. That would be my first choice. Between the two of them we should be fine and if they are both good....all the better. However of the 3 those 2 are probably the least likely to settle for a #2 role imo.I do kinda like the idea of signing two and trading the one who doesn't win the starting job. That gives the "loser" the opportunity to start and the Vikings some currency. Then backup becomes a top priority in 2nd and 3rd tier free agency.
somebody thinks you are humorous... I think you are pretty spot on in terms of Case being the weakest camp QB of the bunch. His talents shine in live game situations, but he didnt look very good in camp and unfortunately that is where a lot of the decisions are made. If Heineke hadnt shit the bed in his last preseason performance, would he have been kept over Case? I know in mankato Case was pretty unimpressive the 2 days I was there, but when the lights came on his game was much better.
I still remember that article written when Case was on his run. It was a pro-Case article, but the gist of it was how surprising his performance was when you consider how the QBs looked in training camp compared to each other. While Bradford was throwing darts, Case's passes fluttered and sailed. Case is a winner and a pretty damn good game-day QB, but he's not going to look as good in a camp environment as QBs with more arm talent.
@"Jor-El" said:@"Al (The Lochstar) Heurung" said: I think it'll come down to what we started with... Bradpool and Teddy. Flip loves Bradpool's arm, and Teddy (esp if his contract tolls) will be EZ Insurance. Case is a super swell guy but he's gonna get *paid* after this season, likely by a horrible team that will make him unhappy on the field. We can't realistically carry what Keenum is gonna get plus Teddy unless Teddy tolls... and Flip's input works against that as well. Bradpool will come out of this offseason QB scramble as a bargain, methinks.Bradford+Bridgewater may be Spielman's dream, but I think it will be challenging to see happen. The money for both (or either + Keenum) is going to be too much unless either Bridgewater's contract tolls or Bradford's knee looks dicey. The "will Teddy be tolled" debate has been held enough and without any way for us fans to know, so leaving that alone. But re Bradford, I really think that if he is feeling really strong, he and his agent know he can work out in Arizona or Denver and that magic arm will get coaches and OCs and GMs excited. His health should never be trusted again but someone will and he'll get $15-20M/year, if only short term. IMO the only way Vikings get Bradford for less than $15M is if he is walking wounded so he's afraid to test the market - in which case, be done with him.
Personally, I would part ways with both our "B" QBs. Either is bound to have us holding our breath after every low hit or landing on a knee, and will eventually break our hearts and another season.
Bradford is in his 3rd city and has made more money in the last 8 years than the Catholic Church, I dont see him playing for peanuts, but rumor has it that he and his wife are happy in minneapolis and would like to stay. ( after being in philly.... is it really hard to fathom that he would play for less to stay in a city they like?) Sams knee will lower his base price, but he could be got on the cheap with an incentive heavy contract. say 6-8 million per year with another million per start?I would ask if they are willing to compete for the job, if all 3 say yes then offer all 3 the same contract, and tell them the first 2 to come back signed get the deal. its fair starter money, and its top shelf back up money. Have wording in the contract that the loser can opt out after 1 year and have a no trade clause so if we can get a pick for the eventual loser if Sloter looks ready for some action as a #2.
as far as Teddy being more of an injury risk... maybe maybe not, that topic is just as over discussed as his contract tolling.
I don't know why Bradford + Teddy would be financially difficult. Neither is going to get "much" on the open market. Sam has high upside- but is a huge risk. Teddy has potential- but also more risk. I can't imagine that any team is going to pay them to become starters. So now you've got 2 back-ups (in terms of salary) competing for a starting job. I would think that some combination of $25 million (or less) would get both of them- and we'd still have Sloter. That is... if the team wanted both of them.
Bradford/Sloter? I'm starting to bump this up the reality scale personally.
@"pumpf" said: I don't know why Bradford + Teddy would be financially difficult. Neither is going to get "much" on the open market. Sam has high upside- but is a huge risk. Teddy has potential- but also more risk. I can't imagine that any team is going to pay them to become starters. So now you've got 2 back-ups (in terms of salary) competing for a starting job. I would think that some combination of $25 million (or less) would get both of them- and we'd still have Sloter. That is... if the team wanted both of them.Sort of agree, but I think with the dearth of talent at QB1 positions around the NFL, either could get paid as a starter.
@"greediron" said:but does either one want to got to the places that are so desperate for a starting QB that they will over look their existing issues and guarantee them that starter money? I dont know about Teddy, but I doubt Sam would want to move to Cleveland or the Jets, maybe AZ for him, but I sure wouldnt expect him to agree to play in buffalo with his knees.@"pumpf" said: I don't know why Bradford + Teddy would be financially difficult. Neither is going to get "much" on the open market. Sam has high upside- but is a huge risk. Teddy has potential- but also more risk. I can't imagine that any team is going to pay them to become starters. So now you've got 2 back-ups (in terms of salary) competing for a starting job. I would think that some combination of $25 million (or less) would get both of them- and we'd still have Sloter. That is... if the team wanted both of them. Sort of agree, but I think with the dearth of talent at QB1 positions around the NFL, either could get paid as a starter.
@"JimmyinSD" said:Depends on. Would 7-10 mil more a year make Buffalo or NYJ palatable?@"greediron" said:but does either one want to got to the places that are so desperate for a starting QB that they will over look their existing issues and guarantee them that starter money? I dont know about Teddy, but I doubt Sam would want to move to Cleveland or the Jets, maybe AZ for him, but I sure wouldnt expect him to agree to play in buffalo with his knees.@"pumpf" said: I don't know why Bradford + Teddy would be financially difficult. Neither is going to get "much" on the open market. Sam has high upside- but is a huge risk. Teddy has potential- but also more risk. I can't imagine that any team is going to pay them to become starters. So now you've got 2 back-ups (in terms of salary) competing for a starting job. I would think that some combination of $25 million (or less) would get both of them- and we'd still have Sloter. That is... if the team wanted both of them. Sort of agree, but I think with the dearth of talent at QB1 positions around the NFL, either could get paid as a starter.
@"greediron" said:not buffalo or likely even the jets, both are outdoor teams and with Sams knees... thats gonna make for a long last few years in the cooler months.@"JimmyinSD" said:Depends on. Would 7-10 mil more a year make Buffalo or NYJ palatable?@"greediron" said:but does either one want to got to the places that are so desperate for a starting QB that they will over look their existing issues and guarantee them that starter money? I dont know about Teddy, but I doubt Sam would want to move to Cleveland or the Jets, maybe AZ for him, but I sure wouldnt expect him to agree to play in buffalo with his knees.@"pumpf" said: I don't know why Bradford + Teddy would be financially difficult. Neither is going to get "much" on the open market. Sam has high upside- but is a huge risk. Teddy has potential- but also more risk. I can't imagine that any team is going to pay them to become starters. So now you've got 2 back-ups (in terms of salary) competing for a starting job. I would think that some combination of $25 million (or less) would get both of them- and we'd still have Sloter. That is... if the team wanted both of them. Sort of agree, but I think with the dearth of talent at QB1 positions around the NFL, either could get paid as a starter.
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