Forum The Longship State of the MN Vikings Franchise

State of the MN Vikings Franchise

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Nobody wants the season to end, especially the way it had to happen. But inevitably I knew there would be a morning I'd post my writeup on the current Vikings franchise and how this team is likely much more sustainable than the 2009 team that also fell in the NFC Championship game. The entire front office deserves credit for this. Sustainability in the NFL is hard to come by and is truly a team effort. Cost controllable draft picks, strong cap management, and strategically dipping into FA all have to work in harmony. Below I walk through each position as we enter the off-season while taking a look at the cap and adding some high level thoughts. 

Quarterback: 

  • Under Contract: Kyle Sloter
  • Not Under Contract: Case Keenum (UFA), Sam Bradford (UFA), Teddy Bridgewater (UFA) 
The Vikings off-season will be centered around how they handle the QB position. Kyle Sloter will return to compete for the #2/#3 QB spot on the roster, but the rest is undecided. With only a non-guaranteed $0.5M allocated to the position every option is on the table. The franchise tag will be roughly $23M this off-season. The Vikings have until March 6th to apply the tag. Look for the Vikings to wait until that point before making any pivotal decisions. Don't discount the Vikings making a play for a veteran UFA it they come available (Cousins/Brees/Smith). 

Running Back: 

  • Under Contract: Dalvin Cook, Latavius Murray, C.J. Ham 
  • Not Under Contract: Jerrick McKinnon (UFA), Bishop Sankey (RFA), Mack Brown (ERFA)
Dalvin Cook should be ready to go prior to training camp and will be in-line for 200+ carries in 2018. After that things are not nearly as black and white. Latavius Murray is a cut/restructure candidate. His contract was designed in a way to give the Vikings a choice to continue the relationship after 2018. Releasing Murray would save $5.15M against the cap. More likely than not the Vikings will need to decide between resigning Jet or retaining Murray. The question is who is more replaceable both on and off the field? Jet will be in-line for a nice deal in the range of $4M AAV, which may make the most sense. To fill out the position extending tenders to one or both Sankey and Brown make sense. 

Tight End: 

  • Under Contract: Kyle Rudolph, David Morgan, Blake Bell, Nick Truesdell (PS) 
  • Not Under Contract: None
After the season the Vikings will probably go back to the drawing board at TE. Kyle Rudolph had a strong 2018 and is an extension candidate with an expiring contract in 2019 with no future salary guarantees. David Morgan remains a valuable asset and Blake Bell is worth retaining through at least training camp. Adding another receiving threat at TE would be ideal. Although early, there will be a number of free agent options available. There are also a few intriguing prospects who could be available in rounds 1-3. 

Wide Receiver: 

  • Under Contract: Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Laquon Treadwell, Jarius Wright, Stacy Coley, Brandon Zystra, Rodney Adams (PS), Cayleb Jones (PS)  
  • Not Under Contract: Michael Floyd (UFA)
Having a strong core of playmakers made life easier for Case Keenum all season long. Although its possible the Vikings look to extend Diggs this off-season with only a year remaining on his contract, it may make sense for both sides to wait until 2019. Jarius Wright may end up being forced to once again restructure his deal or risk being cut. Although a valuable 3rd down weapon, his current cap number slightly under $5M doesn't make sense. Look for the team to give Stacy Coley more chances in 2018, they like him. The rest are depth pieces. Although he stayed out of trouble there isn't any guarantee Floyd is brought back for anything more than a minimum salary. 

Exterior O-Line: 

  • Under Contract: Riley Reiff, Mike Remmers, Rashod Hill, Aviante Collins, Cedrick Lang (PS), Dieugot Joseph (PS)
  • Not Under Contract: None
A 2017 off-season that kicked off with the signings of Reiff/Remmers paid huge dividends all season for the Vikings front 5. Reiff solidified himself as the LT moving forward, which is huge. Mike Remmer's future comes down to whether the Vikings prefer to use him outside or prefer to kick him inside to guard. That flexibility may prove to be valuable. Rashod Hill is a valuable swing tackle that is still developing and Aviante Collins improved tremendously showing value as a 6th lineman the last 1/3 of the season. Depending on how the Vikings prefer to use Remmers, tackle is either a low priority or draft need. 

Interior O-Line: 

  • Under Contract: Pat Elflein, Cornelius Edison, Danny Isidora, 
  • Not Under Contract: Nick Easton (RFA), Jeremiah Sirles (RFA), Joe Berger (UFA)
If you want to pick out a single position group that may see a makeover this off-season its the interior O-line. Until anybody hears otherwise its safe to assume that Joe Berger is likely headed for retirement, opening up a hole at RG. Both Nick Easton and Jeremiah Sirles should be expected to receive RFA tenders. It'll be interesting to see which tender the Vikings opt to use on Easton since he was originally an UDFA and may garner outside interest if given an original round tender. As noted above Remmers may slide into the open RG spot, but Danny Isidora could have a chance to show he deserves a shot during camp. Regardless, guard is a potential FA need and or a round 1-3 draft pick. Pat Elflein looks to be the franchise center for years to come. 

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#1 · Jan 22, 9:38 AM
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@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@"FSUVike" said: Case looks for Adam and Diggs on every play unless Shurmer specifically calls for the play to go to someone else.

I don't really blame him, but the really good QBs don't lock.onto one or two guys every play. Well, Ben does sometimes with Brown, but can you blame him either? 

More cerebral guys will read the Defense and adjust to the WR they feel has the best chance to get open based on what they are seeing.  They also know that helps open things up more because it forces the Defense to react to your #3 and #4 WRs killing their Nickel and Dime CBs.

That's another knock against both Case and Teddy. They're both guys who go with the called play and rarely audible into anything else. Sure, both will go through progressions post-snap when the primary read is covered. But they're not guys who beat you pre-snap.

I want a QB that can read Defenses and audible out of runs into stacked boxes and makes the right decisions to involve more playmakers besides the Big Two.


What you describe is what 1/2 the NFL is still looking for  ;)

But on a more serious note, I do agree that Keenum can get stuck on his reads from time to time. The good thing is that both Diggs and Thielen get good seperation and can give him a target rather quickly. 



He could make it work, because both Thielen and Diggs were strong at winning contested catches, but I didn't feel like Case was throwing open receivers, hitting 3rd or 4th options, or knowing when to kill a play. Instead he was more of a game. He'd force plays to his playmakers that arguably more cerebral QBs wouldn't have attempted, he'd run around to extend plays, and sometimes heave up odd moon passes that even when they worked felt like terrible plays.

Case is a tough player to evaluate. He's a better player than I gave him credit for and made some incredible plays, but he has some real flaws. The hard part is that depending on how the ball bounces his flaws can manifest as strengths. He's a bit of a poor man's Favre who can win if he doesn't make mistakes, but he doesn't have near the ability that Favre had to overcome mistakes. Few players do, but I think it contributed to the feeling that he was a player riding a hot streak and was hugely benefiting from teams dropping picks and balls bouncing in his favor. That didn't account for all of his success, but it was part of it. We could do worse than Keenum over the next 2-3 years, but at the same time guys like Cousins, Smith, Manning, or even a healthy Bradford or Bridgewater could potentially do more with those same weapons.

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#42 · Jan 23, 12:56 AM
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The DL will be a hot topic of discussion. I feel like we need one more pass rusher to rotate in. I was hoping that Weatherly or Bowers would be it, but Weatherly was more of a base end and Bowers barely got any chances. Maybe Bowers takes on a bigger role next year, but I would target another pass rusher anywhere in the 1st four rounds.

I agree that 3T/UT is a huge need. The ability to generate quick pressure up the middle is the best way to stop quick passing attacks like Brees and Foles and we simply didn't have the pieces to do this. I think a healthy Floyd could have done that, but we'll never know. I had hoped that Jaleel Johnson would help with that, but I think that a high draft pick or priority FA signing is a big need. If we can start generating quick pressure up the middle, then that covers one of the few big weaknesses on D.

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#43 · Jan 23, 1:03 AM
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@"FSUVike" said: See, I think Alex Smith is the kind of player an OC can trust. He's been in several different systems and has usually been allowed to audible.

Any more it seems most plays come in from the sidelines with both a run and pass option based on what the QB srrs the Defense doing. The last few years it just feels like whichever QB was under Center was just going to roll with the initial call.

Give me a guy like Smith who will see Jarius lined up on a scrub or rookie or Floyd or Treadwell having a significant height advantage and take that opportunity vs. always throwing to guys who routinely get double covered.
 

I think Smith is the perfect QB for this team at the right time. I really just wish we would not be in this QB situation every year.

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#44 · Jan 23, 5:23 AM
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are we the only team to never get a legit franchise QB? we had pepps for a few years but he had moss then shredded his knee. we had/have teddy who i thought was our guy... shredded his knee. how many teams always have a QB? 

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#45 · Jan 23, 6:05 AM
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@"Caactorvike" said: forgive me if this is a stupid question ( i dont know contract rules like some of you guys!) but if we lose McKinnon or Teddy or Sam are we owed any compensatory picks?  I know we have no contracts with Teddy and Sam.  Can we use a transition tag or something so if they walk we at least get a draft pick as consolation?
Not a bad question at all. 

When you lose UFA's they are ranked against all of the other UFA's other teams lose. That creates somewhat of a list which is used to calculate comp picks. Whenever you sign a played in UFA it cancels out a similar player you have lost. So for example if you had Matt Kalil leave in 2017 who would have been a 3rd round comp pick and sign Riley Reiff also a 3rd round comp pick, you get none. There are some nuances, but this is high level how it works. 

As for the transition tag, you wouldn't get a comp pick if they signed with another team since you the team opted not to match a prospective deal. If you want a comp pick you're best letting them walk away and not signing anyone. 

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#46 · Jan 23, 7:21 AM
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@"Neptizzle" said: are we the only team to never get a legit franchise QB? we had pepps for a few years but he had moss then shredded his knee. we had/have teddy who i thought was our guy... shredded his knee. how many teams always have a QB? 
Been a long time hasn't it? Amazing the Vikings have succeeded as much as they have with so many question marks at the position for so long.

Its the only reason I envy the Packers who've been blessed with 2 HOF QB's in a row & over 25 years. 

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#47 · Jan 23, 7:27 AM
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@"FSUVike" said:
@"Neptizzle" said: Ive never been a huge Smith fan, but the guy is a trustworthy winner. Put him in with our D and we win 12-13 games while Sloter develops or we draft our guy. I still love Teddy, but is his knee going to make it? With how open our guys ALWAYS are, get an accurate, safe passer in here who can hit one or two over the top a game, give us 1 more OL in the draft to allow Hill to move back to the bench and suddenly our O is really good. Get the replacement 3DT and suddenly we are right back here next year but talking about our win.


We're on the same page, friend. Not liking the DT FA Class, though. Poe and Richardson are the best but will want monster deals and seem to play better in contract years.


I think people may be surprised by Richardson's market. He hasn't been highly productive for 2 years now and is nearly limited to a 4-3 team. He could be a candidate for a 1 year deal at $8-9M that could become a more longer term deal near his actual market value of $12-13M. I still doubt the Vikings would drop that change on another D-lineman, but they do have the cap space to be a little extravagant. 

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#48 · Jan 23, 7:30 AM
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@"medaille" said: What's the deal with Floyd and Treadwell having so little production?  You'd think that between the 2 of them, they'd be able to stumble into something that resembles an NFL receiver, but combined they have less than 280 yards.  Is there something in our scheme or something in Case that is inhibiting them?  Floyd has had multiple years hovering around 1000 yds, so it’s not like he’s completely worthless.  I would hope that any FA X receiver we bring in would at least be able to get at least 500 yards.


But even with the "limited opportunities behind Diggs/Thielen", long-overlooked Jarius Wright ultimately produced better than those highly-touted former #1 picks. I know Wright has different skills, and someone is bound to throw out a plug about Treadwell's amazing blocking value, but didn't Treadwell get at least 2 starts when Diggs was hurt?

I think the Vikings have lusted after this idea of the "X receiver" so long, dreaming of someone who fits a physical prototype, and yet they get the most from other receivers. I hope the next OC declares Jarius the #3 until someone takes the job through better play, not draft expectation.


@"JimmyinSD" said:

and what are the odds that Teddy wants to stay as a back up,  or that Smith would come here if he has to compete with Teddy?  They both want to be the #1 and both are likely not wanting to share snaps as Teddy needs all he can get to shake the rust off and any FA QB would want all they could get in a new system.  I think Teddy will draw interest from a few teams that would have more attractive paths to the #1 spot than battling Smith in Minny.   I wish we really knew how ready Teddy was to return.  I can over look that little glimpse we saw against the bengals,  just over amped,  but just how ready is he to have guys flying around that knee?


I agree - if we trade for Alex Smith (an idea I really like), I think the other 3 veteran QBs would all leave, or try to. Maybe one of them will be disappointed by the free agent offers and stay here as Smith's backup. But Bridgewater is too young to sit behind Smith for 4 years. If his knee is healthy (yes, huge IF), I think another team will sign him and offer a chance to compete. He would love to play in Miami, and they might have an open competition.

Smith makes so much sense for all the reasons FSU and others cited, and because his age (about to turn 34) means he would not be a Favre-esque all-in one year shot (which would be the case with Brees). Smith could QB this team for the next 5 years. I'm just wondering about his contract status...spotrac says there is an option out before the 2018 season, so can he opt out or is it the team's option?

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#49 · Jan 23, 9:48 AM
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@Geoff Nichols...I'd prefer him over Murray if I had to choose who to pay equal dollar amounts to. He probably will have the opportunity to get a larger role. But in Jet's mind if the Vikings move on from Murray is that a big enough role? Its all subjective. 

In a vacuum I'd probably agree. But considering Cook is coming back, I'd rather pair him with Murray than Jet. 

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#50 · Jan 23, 10:27 AM
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@"MaroonBells" said: @Geoff Nichols...I'd prefer him over Murray if I had to choose who to pay equal dollar amounts to. He probably will have the opportunity to get a larger role. But in Jet's mind if the Vikings move on from Murray is that a big enough role? Its all subjective. 

In a vacuum I'd probably agree. But considering Cook is coming back, I'd rather pair him with Murray than Jet. 


I kind of was looking at it a vacuum I guess. But I agree with you. Murray/Cook is a better combo than Jet/Cook since you'd need a third body for the goal line.  

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#51 · Jan 23, 10:36 AM
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@"MaroonBells" said: @Geoff Nichols...I'd prefer him over Murray if I had to choose who to pay equal dollar amounts to. He probably will have the opportunity to get a larger role. But in Jet's mind if the Vikings move on from Murray is that a big enough role? Its all subjective. 

In a vacuum I'd probably agree. But considering Cook is coming back, I'd rather pair him with Murray than Jet. 


I think we need to look at keeping Jet ( I dont think it happens) in that him and Cook are more similar in playing styles,  if Cook were to go down again it would be nice to keep some sort of continuity to the running game.   However,  I think we can likely find a decent RB in the draft to complement Cook or to act as a similar style back up.  when Cook is on,  he will eat about 80% of the RB snaps so that doesnt leave much for a #3 guy if we do find a short yardage specialist type to run with Cook.

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#52 · Jan 23, 10:39 AM
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@"Jor-El" said:
@"medaille" said: What's the deal with Floyd and Treadwell having so little production?  You'd think that between the 2 of them, they'd be able to stumble into something that resembles an NFL receiver, but combined they have less than 280 yards.  Is there something in our scheme or something in Case that is inhibiting them?  Floyd has had multiple years hovering around 1000 yds, so it’s not like he’s completely worthless.  I would hope that any FA X receiver we bring in would at least be able to get at least 500 yards.


But even with the "limited opportunities behind Diggs/Thielen", long-overlooked Jarius Wright ultimately produced better than those highly-touted former #1 picks. I know Wright has different skills, and someone is bound to throw out a plug about Treadwell's amazing blocking value, but didn't Treadwell get at least 2 starts when Diggs was hurt?

I think the Vikings have lusted after this idea of the "X receiver" so long, dreaming of someone who fits a physical prototype, and yet they get the most from other receivers. I hope the next OC declares Jarius the #3 until someone takes the job through better play, not draft expectation.


@"JimmyinSD" said:

and what are the odds that Teddy wants to stay as a back up,  or that Smith would come here if he has to compete with Teddy?  They both want to be the #1 and both are likely not wanting to share snaps as Teddy needs all he can get to shake the rust off and any FA QB would want all they could get in a new system.  I think Teddy will draw interest from a few teams that would have more attractive paths to the #1 spot than battling Smith in Minny.   I wish we really knew how ready Teddy was to return.  I can over look that little glimpse we saw against the bengals,  just over amped,  but just how ready is he to have guys flying around that knee?


I agree - if we trade for Alex Smith (an idea I really like), I think the other 3 veteran QBs would all leave, or try to. Maybe one of them will be disappointed by the free agent offers and stay here as Smith's backup. But Bridgewater is too young to sit behind Smith for 4 years. If his knee is healthy (yes, huge IF), I think another team will sign him and offer a chance to compete. He would love to play in Miami, and they might have an open competition.

Smith makes so much sense for all the reasons FSU and others cited, and because his age (about to turn 34) means he would not be a Favre-esque all-in one year shot (which would be the case with Brees). Smith could QB this team for the next 5 years. I'm just wondering about his contract status...spotrac says there is an option out before the 2018 season, so can he opt out or is it the team's option?



There is no option on Smith's deal. He strictly has a single year left on his current deal. The only real time piece is the $2M roster bonuses that is due when he reports to training camp. Not that $2M is a huge number, but it at least doesn't force the Chiefs to make a decision before or at the beginning of the league year. 

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#53 · Jan 23, 10:41 AM
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Jor El both Thielen and Diggs get snaps out of the slot. How can Jarius be the #3 if he pretty much only plays out of the slot? You'd be taking reps away in the slot for your two best Receivers.

Whomever plays in the X spot will get more looks if the QB isn't Case. Don't care if it's Treadwell or someone else, but it ain't gonna be Wright.

Geoff, I can't see Rick going after Richardson. As you pointed out his production has dropped the last few years and there's character concerns.

The 3T is unfortunately going to need to be addressed with a high round pick, IMO,

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#54 · Jan 23, 10:44 AM
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@"JimmyinSD" said:
@"MaroonBells" said: @Geoff Nichols...I'd prefer him over Murray if I had to choose who to pay equal dollar amounts to. He probably will have the opportunity to get a larger role. But in Jet's mind if the Vikings move on from Murray is that a big enough role? Its all subjective. 

In a vacuum I'd probably agree. But considering Cook is coming back, I'd rather pair him with Murray than Jet. 


I think we need to look at keeping Jet ( I dont think it happens) in that him and Cook are more similar in playing styles,  if Cook were to go down again it would be nice to keep some sort of continuity to the running game.   However,  I think we can likely find a decent RB in the draft to complement Cook or to act as a similar style back up.  when Cook is on,  he will eat about 80% of the RB snaps so that doesnt leave much for a #3 guy if we do find a short yardage specialist type to run with Cook.


It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Ultimately it comes down to deciding between Murray & Jet. You aren't going to be able to afford the three of them together. The little wrinkle in Murray's deal is that his 2018 salary becomes fully guaranteed on 3/18 (4th day of new league year). So if he is still on the roster at that point he'll be here for the season. 

EDIT - Just to build on that a little more, the Vikings actually save more cutting Murray this off-season ($5M savings) than they would next year. Murray's deal is also designed in a way that would make it tough to renegotiate (tough to push the money around). So this will be something to watch. 

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#55 · Jan 23, 10:45 AM
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@"FSUVike" said: Jor El both Thielen and Diggs get snaps out of the slot. How can Jarius be the #3 if he pretty much only plays out of the slot? You'd be taking reps away in the slot for your two best Receivers.

Whomever plays in the X spot will get more looks if the QB isn't Case. Don't care if it's Treadwell or someone else, but it ain't gonna be Wright.

Geoff, I can't see Rick going after Richardson. As you pointed out his production has dropped the last few years and there's character concerns.

The 3T is unfortunately going to need to be addressed with a high round pick, IMO,


This is the same point regarding Treadwell I tried to make a few weeks ago. Although people thought it was an excuse, it really is the truth. Treadwell is solely an isolation player that has to lineup on the outside of the field. That doesn't mean Jarius isn't a better or more productive player. You have a 3-man cycle in the slot of Thielen/Diggs/Wright and you aren't taking either of those two off the field for Jarius. Eventually I think Shumur tried to get him some snaps but running more bunch formations. But this isn't a who's better argument between Wright and Treadwell. It's comparing apples to oranges. 

As for Richardson, the Vikings really liked him pre-draft that year. They've shown a liking to grab those players though free agency when they've had the chance. But I still think it'd be a bit of a dream scenario. 

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#56 · Jan 23, 10:53 AM
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I think either way, the Vikings should toll Bridgewaters contract - unless we plan to have him be our starter and sign him to a reasonable contract.  He will be an asset we can trade.  If we are going to lose him anyway, might as well get something sooner out of him than a comp pick. At worst with that contract I think you could get a 3rd round draft pick.  I think we are going to need some more ammo to add some more assets to this team.  

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#57 · Jan 23, 11:57 AM
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@"Kmerry82" said: I think either way, the Vikings should toll Bridgewaters contract - unless we plan to have him be our starter and sign him to a reasonable contract.  He will be an asset we can trade.  If we are going to lose him anyway, might as well get something sooner out of him than a comp pick. At worst with that contract I think you could get a 3rd round draft pick.  I think we are going to need some more ammo to add some more assets to this team.  


NFL by-laws prevent the Vikings from tolling the contract since Teddy would have been able to pass a physical prior to being removed from the PUP after week 6. The Vikings could challenge the league on the wording, but I wouldn't plan on Teddy's contract tolling. The NFLPA would have a fit over the case since it would lead to terrible precedence for them moving forward. 

Also in the hypothetical case they were able to toll the contract, he has more value to the Vikings than anyone else at this point. Nobody is going to deal a 3rd round pick for an unknown commodity on a one year deal. The ability to toll would make it more practical to tag Case at $23M though since you'd be able to retain two potential starters for roughly $25M. 

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#58 · Jan 23, 12:10 PM
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Thanks again Geoff...Good read!!

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#59 · Jan 29, 5:18 PM
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