The question now is: which team does Minnesota have the deal with?

@"pattersaur" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

@"Godhead" said: the Cards and Chargers are most likely the trade target. What they will like is - that if QBs go 1,2,3,4 is it slides the top talent of other positions down and makes their new picks just as desirable with their needs. If the 1st 4 are QBs the other QBs are likely to go earlier than normal too. Good year not to need a QB in the top 25 selections.

I don’t think top 3 is for sale either.

My best guess is we have a tentative agreement to get to 5, and have also told Arizona not to trade 4 without giving us a chance to match.

If QBs go 1-3 and #4 gets traded to anyone but us that will be a kick in the stick, not gonna lie. Wherever the slot may be I think we need to leave this draft with the fourth QB taken or better. 

If I am an GM, knowing what MN has and I want to jump then n your scenario,   I call AZ, top the minny offer,  and tell them it's off the table as soon as we are off the phone,  I wouldn't give them a chance to get another offer from minny or other.

Yeah. And it’s why the longer this drags on, if we do intend to move up, the more precarious it could get. I’m not sure I fully buy the handshake thing.

Arizona already has 11 picks in this draft including 2 in 1st round. Their current WRs are:
Michael Wilson who was drafted last yearGreg DortchZach Pascal
It just makes too much sense for them to stay put & draft MHJ. Maybe they can still draft an elite WR at #11 but MHJ & Malik Nabors will likely be gone. Rome Odunze may still be there but Chicago at #9 will likely have Odunze high on their board.
Brock Bowers would be a good fit for Arizona. But do you want to draft Bowers when you could've had MHJ?

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

@"Godhead" said: the Cards and Chargers are most likely the trade target. What they will like is - that if QBs go 1,2,3,4 is it slides the top talent of other positions down and makes their new picks just as desirable with their needs. If the 1st 4 are QBs the other QBs are likely to go earlier than normal too. Good year not to need a QB in the top 25 selections.

I don’t think top 3 is for sale either.

My best guess is we have a tentative agreement to get to 5, and have also told Arizona not to trade 4 without giving us a chance to match.

If QBs go 1-3 and #4 gets traded to anyone but us that will be a kick in the stick, not gonna lie. Wherever the slot may be I think we need to leave this draft with the fourth QB taken or better. 

Depends on how they got em stacked...

I dont think they look at it as they must get one of the top 4 - but (to paraphrase from @Marroonbells) they need to acquire whomever they have in their top tier.  

For all we know they have Penix or Nix rated in that top tier? I personally would rather have Nix of the two, but there's a lot of chatter the Vikings like Penix.  

I also dont think they acquired a 2nd #1 pick for Nix or Penix, but what do I know???

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

@"Godhead" said: the Cards and Chargers are most likely the trade target. What they will like is - that if QBs go 1,2,3,4 is it slides the top talent of other positions down and makes their new picks just as desirable with their needs. If the 1st 4 are QBs the other QBs are likely to go earlier than normal too. Good year not to need a QB in the top 25 selections.

I don’t think top 3 is for sale either.

My best guess is we have a tentative agreement to get to 5, and have also told Arizona not to trade 4 without giving us a chance to match.

If QBs go 1-3 and #4 gets traded to anyone but us that will be a kick in the stick, not gonna lie. Wherever the slot may be I think we need to leave this draft with the fourth QB taken or better. 

Depends on how they got em stacked...

I dont think they look at it as they must get one of the top 4 - but (to paraphrase from @Marroonbells) they need to acquire whomever they have in their top tier.  

For all we know they have Penix or Nix rated in that top tier? I personally would rather have Nix of the two, but there's a lot of chatter the Vikings like Penix.  

I also dont think they acquired a 2nd #1 pick for Nix or Penix, but what do I know???

Vikings never did fill the DT need after pursuing Wilkins. And there have been rumors they love Byron Murphy. So who knows? I think a move up for a QB is still the most likely, but it's also possible they just wanted to end up with a QB AND a top defensive player. And if they're one of the teams who like Nix or Penix, having picks at 11 and 23 seems like a pretty good place to fill both needs. 

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"pattersaur" said:

@"Godhead" said: the Cards and Chargers are most likely the trade target. What they will like is - that if QBs go 1,2,3,4 is it slides the top talent of other positions down and makes their new picks just as desirable with their needs. If the 1st 4 are QBs the other QBs are likely to go earlier than normal too. Good year not to need a QB in the top 25 selections.

I don’t think top 3 is for sale either.

My best guess is we have a tentative agreement to get to 5, and have also told Arizona not to trade 4 without giving us a chance to match.

If QBs go 1-3 and #4 gets traded to anyone but us that will be a kick in the stick, not gonna lie. Wherever the slot may be I think we need to leave this draft with the fourth QB taken or better. 

If I am an GM, knowing what MN has and I want to jump then n your scenario,   I call AZ, top the minny offer,  and tell them it's off the table as soon as we are off the phone,  I wouldn't give them a chance to get another offer from minny or other.

I'm not one who typically reports these things but I'm hearing from someone whom I trust that the Vikings' trade talks to this point have been primarily with New England, and to a lesser degree, Arizona. Sounds like Washington is assumed around the league to be staying put at 2.

— Jackson McIntire (@2HighCoverage) March 16, 2024

@"MaroonBells" said: https://twitter.com/JMcIntireNFL/status/1769103151318085921?s=20

The logic of NE moving down for more players makes sense. As many have said, they are not exactly a team set-up (yet) to support a rook QB to succeed. A move up to #3 for JJM doesnt compute for me, it would have to be for Maye. 

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: https://twitter.com/JMcIntireNFL/status/1769103151318085921?s=20

I would be very surprised if The Commodes dont take Daniels...

The logic of NE moving down for more players makes sense. As many have said, they are not exactly a team set-up (yet) to support a rook QB to succeed. A move up to #3 for JJM doesnt compute for me, it would have to be for Maye. 

@"Wetlander" said:

@"purplefaithful" said:

@"MaroonBells" said: https://twitter.com/JMcIntireNFL/status/1769103151318085921?s=20

I would be very surprised if The Commodes dont take Daniels...

The logic of NE moving down for more players makes sense. As many have said, they are not exactly a team set-up (yet) to support a rook QB to succeed. A move up to #3 for JJM doesnt compute for me, it would have to be for Maye. 

And with a new HC from the defensive side of the ball...  There might be some allure to getting extra picks, grab a JJM (trading back up with some of the picks acquired) or Nix or Penix with one of your first rounders and still have early picks to get a WR, defense, etc.

I’ll be pretty surprised if the Pats leave their spot. If they do, it means they don’t like Maye or JJM assuming they are available. They need a QB now, not later. I don’t see any of the top 3 moving. I also think the Pats could shock people and take JJM. 

I’m not buying the tweet or whatever they are called now up above. I don’t think that guy knows anything. 

I also think it’s probable the Vikings knew they could get a deal done to move up for their guy before making the Texans trade. If I were Kwesi, I’d lock that pick down meow. 

In my ooinion, top 3 stay and Arizona does a deal with the Vikings.

@"Havoc1649" said: I’ll be pretty surprised if the Pats leave their spot. If they do, it means they don’t like Maye or JJM assuming they are available. They need a QB now, not later. I don’t see any of the top 3 moving. I also think the Pats could shock people and take JJM. 

I’m not buying the tweet or whatever they are called now up above. I don’t think that guy knows anything. 

I also think it’s probable the Vikings knew they could get a deal done to move up for their guy before making the Texans trade. If I were Kwesi, I’d lock that pick down meow. 

In my ooinion, top 3 stay and Arizona does a deal with the Vikings.

I mentioned in another thread I think they’re in discussions with both the Pats and the Chargers.  I just don’t see the Cards moving off #4 with the chance to take the best overall player in the draft at a position of need.

 I think whether they trade up to 3 or 5 and who they take depends on what the Commanders do with the #2 pick. 

If the Commanders go with Maye, we call up LA and move to 5 for JJM

if the Commanders go with Daniels, the call goes to New England for #3 and Maye. 

I gotta think with Washington shipping off Howell and grabbing Mariota, their philosophy might be shifting to an offense featuring a mobile running QB. That would mean Daniels at 2, but I’m just speculating 

The Chargers dumped Allen and Williams this week because they're going after Harrison.

Top 4 picks will be QB's.

Trade up will be with Cardinals @ 4.

@"Mattyman" said: The Chargers dumped Allen and Williams this week because they're going after Harrison.

Top 4 picks will be QB's.

Trade up will be with Cardinals @ 4.

 

@"Wetlander" said:

@"Mattyman" said: The Chargers dumped Allen and Williams this week because they're going after Harrison.

Top 4 picks will be QB's.

Trade up will be with Cardinals @ 4.

 

Maybe...  but Nabers is also projected to go quickly after Harrison Jr so that could be their target as well.  We've been so focused on QBs because WE (the Vikings) need one and I think WE (us fans) are forgetting there are some really talented prospects at other positions that will go early.  I'm still not convinced all these QBs are going 1-3 or even 1-4.

@"Wetlander" said:

@"Mattyman" said: The Chargers dumped Allen and Williams this week because they're going after Harrison.

Top 4 picks will be QB's.

Trade up will be with Cardinals @ 4.

 

Maybe...  but Nabers is also projected to go quickly after Harrison Jr so that could be their target as well.  We've been so focused on QBs because WE (the Vikings) need one and I think WE (us fans) are forgetting there are some really talented prospects at other positions that will go early.  I'm still not convinced all these QBs are going 1-3 or even 1-4.

1-3 i'm absolutely convinced are QB's
1-4? No way I see AZ passing on MHJ. Its as right as KC going to ATL. 

Unless someone snipes them, I think the Vikings best chance to move up (if they choose) would be #5. Waiting there should be JJM or Maye

It wouldn't make sense to have a confirmed deal in place this early in the process, though I suppose you could always back out of it any time prior to actually submitting it to the league.   

In general I don't think spending the farm to move up for one guy is a good idea, because the hit rate on qb's is only about 25%, so you're gambling huge with your draft capital on a low % play.  The smart move would be to sit at 11 and see what develops in front of you.  See if someone else makes a mistake and you can profit by it.   

However I know that while the analytical models say trade back but never up, there are exceptions for a qb and perhaps that's what KAM is thinking of doing.   Him and KOC not only identifying the right guy but being able to get him when there are a bunch of qb-needy teams ahead of them seems like the longest of long shots to me.

@"comet52" said: It wouldn't make sense to have a confirmed deal in place this early in the process, though I suppose you could always back out of it any time prior to actually submitting it to the league.   

In general I don't think spending the farm to move up for one guy is a good idea, because the hit rate on qb's is only about 25%, so you're gambling huge with your draft capital on a low % play.  The smart move would be to sit at 11 and see what develops in front of you.  See if someone else makes a mistake and you can profit by it.   

However I know that while the analytical models say trade back but never up, there are exceptions for a qb and perhaps that's what KAM is thinking of doing.   Him and KOC not only identifying the right guy but being able to get him when there are a bunch of qb-needy teams ahead of them seems like the longest of long shots to me.