Forum The Longship Trading from 12 to 3 etc...

Trading from 12 to 3 etc...

purplefaithful
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Look at what the Texans gave-up last year for the #3 spot to move from #12. Should be similar to go from 11-2.

you up for that for a qb?  The precedence is set and its just a year ago.

Houston traded the No. 12 and 33 pick and its 2024 first- and third-rounder to the Cardinals. 

Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger! 

#1 · Jan 26, 3:34 PM
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If they can find one like Houston found, they would be fools not to.

#2 · Jan 26, 3:51 PM
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It can happen.....just need a willing partner. 

#3 · Jan 26, 3:51 PM
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I know that Geoff has hinted at the Vikings preparing themselves financially to make a big trade for a QB. Especially if we don't have the safety net of keeping Cousins, then it could very well make sense to take a big swing for a QB. The only thing I worry about is having the resources to build up the D, though maybe that happens more in 2025 with an active free agency period.

#4 · Jan 26, 4:27 PM
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@"purplefaithful" said: Look at what the Texans gave-up last year for the #3 spot to move from #12. Should be similar to go from 11-2.

you up for that for a qb?  The precedence is set and its just a year ago.

Houston traded the No. 12 and 33 pick and its 2024 first- and third-rounder to the Cardinals. 


Interesting. And the situations are similar comparing last year's draft to this one, with one MAJOR difference. Both drafts have 3 first tier QBs. Last year had 2 second tier QBs, Levis and Hooker (with a serious injury). This year there are 3 second tier QBs: Nix, Penix, and McCarthy.

The big difference is that last year, one of the teams picking in the top three did not need a QB. They had Kyler Murray and were not going to take another QB. This year, all three teams picking at the top of the draft need a new QB. The only team on the margin is Chicago with Fields but they have the no. 1 overall pick with Caleb Williams available AND even if they were to stay with Fields (dumb move), they are not likely to trade that pick to the Vikings. 

It's one thing to move up for your QB by trading with a team that does not need one. It is quite another thing to convince a QB-needy team to trade that pick to another QB-needy team. It would require a major difference in the way those teams evaluate the available QBs. 

#5 · Jan 26, 5:09 PM
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@"dadevike" said:
@"purplefaithful" said: Look at what the Texans gave-up last year for the #3 spot to move from #12. Should be similar to go from 11-2.

you up for that for a qb?  The precedence is set and its just a year ago.

Houston traded the No. 12 and 33 pick and its 2024 first- and third-rounder to the Cardinals. 


Interesting. And the situations are similar comparing last year's draft to this one, with one MAJOR difference. Both drafts have 3 first tier QBs. Last year had 2 second tier QBs, Levis and Hooker (with a serious injury). This year there are 3 second tier QBs: Nix, Penix, and McCarthy.

The big difference is that last year, one of the teams picking in the top three did not need a QB. They had Kyler Murray and were not going to take another QB. This year, all three teams picking at the top of the draft need a new QB. The only team on the margin is Chicago with Fields but they have the no. 1 overall pick with Caleb Williams available AND even if they were to stay with Fields (dumb move), they are not likely to trade that pick to the Vikings. 

It's one thing to move up for your QB by trading with a team that does not need one. It is quite another thing to convince a QB-needy team to trade that pick to another QB-needy team. It would require a major difference in the way those teams evaluate the available QBs. 



Agree, but thought this was interesting: The oddsmakers are saying that while Atlanta and Las Vegas are the two most likely destinations for Kirk, the Vikings rank 3rd, and two of the other top 5 destinations draft in the top 3, removing their need for a QB. Could they sign Cousins and still draft a QB? Yes. But I would imagine the lure of pairing Cousins with a 1st round WR will be very strong. 

#6 · Jan 26, 5:42 PM
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My thinking the last few days is, we will have to get to 5 if we want any if the top 4 QB’s. Im including Mccarthy here and not  including Nix. 

The pick value chart says our first and second will get it done without overpaying. After the Chargers pick at 5, any of the teams could pounce. 

Chargers could use Oline and an Edge, so i think it’s possible we could get there. 

#7 · Jan 26, 5:52 PM
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@"MaroonBells" said:
@"dadevike" said:
@"purplefaithful" said: Look at what the Texans gave-up last year for the #3 spot to move from #12. Should be similar to go from 11-2.

you up for that for a qb?  The precedence is set and its just a year ago.

Houston traded the No. 12 and 33 pick and its 2024 first- and third-rounder to the Cardinals. 


Interesting. And the situations are similar comparing last year's draft to this one, with one MAJOR difference. Both drafts have 3 first tier QBs. Last year had 2 second tier QBs, Levis and Hooker (with a serious injury). This year there are 3 second tier QBs: Nix, Penix, and McCarthy.

The big difference is that last year, one of the teams picking in the top three did not need a QB. They had Kyler Murray and were not going to take another QB. This year, all three teams picking at the top of the draft need a new QB. The only team on the margin is Chicago with Fields but they have the no. 1 overall pick with Caleb Williams available AND even if they were to stay with Fields (dumb move), they are not likely to trade that pick to the Vikings. 

It's one thing to move up for your QB by trading with a team that does not need one. It is quite another thing to convince a QB-needy team to trade that pick to another QB-needy team. It would require a major difference in the way those teams evaluate the available QBs. 



Agree, but thought this was interesting: The oddsmakers are saying that while Atlanta and Las Vegas are the two most likely destinations for Kirk, the Vikings rank 3rd, and two of the other top 5 destinations draft in the top 3, removing their need for a QB. Could they sign Cousins and still draft a QB? Yes. But I would imagine the lure of pairing Cousins with a 1st round WR will be very strong. 

And I would not pay him market rate to return to the Vikings. If he wants to stay and do 2 years for $60M, I could see that. Otherwise, go start over in a new city with a new team and uproot your family again. We'll take the comp pick next year and start over at the QB position.

#8 · Jan 26, 6:16 PM
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Trading the farm to select a QB is a solid strategy for a team that has a complete roster & needs a QB for their final piece. That's not us. Trading away that draft capital will hamper our ability to build the roster inexpensively.
If the team did this sort of trade, I would of course get behind it & hope for the best.

#9 · Jan 26, 6:37 PM
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I don't think they will be able to move up that much. I think the 1st 3 qbs are gone in that order

#10 · Jan 26, 6:47 PM
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You know KAM would sell the 3rd pick for less. See example moving from 12 to 32

#11 · Jan 26, 7:53 PM
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@"Knucklehead" said:
Trading the farm to select a QB is a solid strategy for a team that has a complete roster & needs a QB for their final piece. That's not us. Trading away that draft capital will hamper our ability to build the roster inexpensively. If the team did this sort of trade, I would of course get behind it & hope for the best.
I see it the other way around.  If you don't have a QB, nothing else matters.  Plus Geoff was alluding to next year and the flexibility with the cap, we'd be able to fill holes in the roster with high level free agents.
#12 · Jan 26, 8:19 PM
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Scenario:

If Minnesota were to give Chicago similar compensation as the Cards got last year.  Let's say 1 & 2 this year, 1 & 3 next year to move to #1.  Chicago could parlay both #1s this year to move up to 2 or 3 (and probably get a 3rd back) if they were really serious about moving on from Fields and they'd still have an extra #1 next year.  Or they could have the draft capital to completely re-make their roster and stick with Fields. 

This all checks out on the NFL Draft Value Chart, by the way 

#13 · Jan 26, 8:40 PM
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@"Still Hurtn" said: You know KAM would sell the 3rd pick for less. See example moving from 12 to 32

His first draft totally backfired on him. He traded with the Lions and the Packers and see what happened. Watching him high-five after picks now is a totally different vibe, just embarrassing.

#14 · Jan 26, 8:43 PM
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The challenge is that the top 3 really need a QB, Chicago is not going to pass on being able to draft Williams, hopefully Washington or NE pick up someone before the draft and could potentially be a trade partner.  The big question is if one of the 2nd tier guys, Nix, Penix, McCarthy are capable prospects at 11 or if the gap is so much larger with Maye/Daniels that we really need to move up.  

#15 · Jan 26, 9:45 PM
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@"JR44" said: The challenge is that the top 3 really need a QB, Chicago is not going to pass on being able to draft Williams, hopefully Washington or NE pick up someone before the draft and could potentially be a trade partner.  The big question is if one of the 2nd tier guys, Nix, Penix, McCarthy are capable prospects at 11 or if the gap is so much larger with Maye/Daniels that we really need to move up.  
In my opinion...Nix, JMM, Penix are all long term projects...none of whom should even come close to starting next year.  Though if Kirk comes back any of these guys are worth a chance to see if they can be the successor.
#16 · Jan 27, 4:43 AM
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Nix is Aaron Rodgers 2.0. It’s like scouting the same guy all over again. Arm talent is the same, accuracy similar, ball placement, fast release, short pocket time, ability to hit guys spot on with all kinds of srm angles, and especially finding creative ways out of bad spots. 

This is Rodgers and especially Pat Mahomes all over again. Nearly every single scout and media person had a mid late 1st round status on Pat and many 2nd round. They were more favorable than GM’s who had him as a 4th rounder or day 3 guy. The tape showed me a guy who was easily a top 5 player overall and one of the best prospects I have ever looked at. Now Nix does not have Pat’s insane arm talent, but it is excellent though. On one pass I watched, Nix dropped it on his guy 60 air yards out while rolling to his right. There are many NFL QB’s unable to do that, yet that’s not what you will read in a scouting report. 

If the Vikings are lucky, they just may get a shot at him at 11. They may even be able to drop a few and gain another pick or two. This is what I’m hopng to see. No trade up to 3. 

#17 · Jan 27, 9:32 AM
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@"Havoc1649" said: Nix is Aaron Rodgers 2.0. It’s like scouting the same guy all over again. Arm talent is the same, accuracy similar, ball placement, fast release, short pocket time, ability to hit guys spot on with all kinds of srm angles, and especially finding creative ways out of bad spots. 

This is Rodgers and especially Pat Mahomes all over again.

You are the first person I've read that has this glowing of a take on Nix. 

 If he is that good? I suspect he'll end-up a Packer  ;)

#18 · Jan 27, 1:33 PM
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@"purplefaithful" said:
@"Havoc1649" said: Nix is Aaron Rodgers 2.0. It’s like scouting the same guy all over again. Arm talent is the same, accuracy similar, ball placement, fast release, short pocket time, ability to hit guys spot on with all kinds of srm angles, and especially finding creative ways out of bad spots. 

This is Rodgers and especially Pat Mahomes all over again.

You are the first person I've read that has this glowing of a take on Nix. 

 If he is that good? I suspect he'll end-up a Packer  ;)



Havoc knows his stuff. That said, I don't trust evaluations that tell only one side of the story. Nix has weaknesses too. 

It's hard to compare draft picks unless you're listing both their strengths and weaknesses. That gives you an idea of some weaknesses that maybe we shouldn't be so concerned about. Mahomes, for example, was said to be reckless coming out. OK, so maybe we push recklessness down a notch among the traits that matter. At any rate, there were many many people who thought Mahomes game would never translate to the NFL. 

#19 · Jan 27, 4:03 PM
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@"Havoc1649" said: Nix is Aaron Rodgers 2.0. It’s like scouting the same guy all over again. Arm talent is the same, accuracy similar, ball placement, fast release, short pocket time, ability to hit guys spot on with all kinds of srm angles, and especially finding creative ways out of bad spots. 

This is Rodgers and especially Pat Mahomes all over again. Nearly every single scout and media person had a mid late 1st round status on Pat and many 2nd round. They were more favorable than GM’s who had him as a 4th rounder or day 3 guy. The tape showed me a guy who was easily a top 5 player overall and one of the best prospects I have ever looked at. Now Nix does not have Pat’s insane arm talent, but it is excellent though. On one pass I watched, Nix dropped it on his guy 60 air yards out while rolling to his right. There are many NFL QB’s unable to do that, yet that’s not what you will read in a scouting report. 

If the Vikings are lucky, they just may get a shot at him at 11. They may even be able to drop a few and gain another pick or two. This is what I’m hopng to see. No trade up to 3. 


I’m obviously not very sold on Nix, but I’m much better with the pick if Cousins sticks around. I personally don’t think any of the second tier should see the field this year outside of mop up duty or emergency situations

#20 · Jan 27, 9:13 PM
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@"MaroonBells" said:
@"purplefaithful" said:
@"Havoc1649" said: Nix is Aaron Rodgers 2.0. It’s like scouting the same guy all over again. Arm talent is the same, accuracy similar, ball placement, fast release, short pocket time, ability to hit guys spot on with all kinds of srm angles, and especially finding creative ways out of bad spots. 

This is Rodgers and especially Pat Mahomes all over again.

You are the first person I've read that has this glowing of a take on Nix. 

 If he is that good? I suspect he'll end-up a Packer  ;)



Havoc knows his stuff. That said, I don't trust evaluations that tell only one side of the story. Nix has weaknesses too. 

It's hard to compare draft picks unless you're listing both their strengths and weaknesses. That gives you an idea of some weaknesses that maybe we shouldn't be so concerned about. Mahomes, for example, was said to be reckless coming out. OK, so maybe we push recklessness down a notch among the traits that matter. At any rate, there were many many people who thought Mahomes game would never translate to the NFL. 



That's one of the knocks on Nix, careless. He's a gun slinger which can be really good and then really bad. I don't know that I agree with Havoc's assessment on Nix, but he's going to be one of these guys that a few teams could fall in love with. He's a fiery leader type. And he's got arm talent, as Havoc mentions.

#21 · Jan 28, 11:01 AM
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