8 Teams Remain
7 of the 8 teams playing has a QB picked in the first round..................................................... then Brock Purdy
That is all
You go with the odds. But at the same time, 60% of first round QBs selected since 1999 haven't been that team's long-term answer. So the odds are against you. Aren't statistics fun? :p
Bottom line: its really hard to select a QB early that will pan out....but when you do hit it right on a QB, they mostly come out of round 1.
Statically speaking how many of those first rounders would have panned out if put in the correct situation? Usually they go to chitty teams that are looking for a savior. They get feed to the wolves and fail early on. Or they have no oline or runnning game or weapons. NFL is brutal business for young QB's. I think this is why guys who can run or scramble stand a better chance until they develop the rest of there game.
@"Still Hurtn" said: 7 of the 8 teams playing has a QB picked in the first round..................................................... then Brock PurdyThat is all
I think it's different every year. No doubt, you increase your odds of hitting in the 1st round. But it's not like it's an absolute must. For example, last year only 1 of the 7 NFC playoff teams had a QB taken in the 1st round.
Last years final 8 was
Five 1st rounders
One 2nd rounder (Heisman winner)
One 3rd Rounder (did not advance)
.............................................................Brock Purdy
2021
Six First Rounders
One First Pick Second Round HOF
One 7th Rounder Goat
@"Still Hurtn" said: 7 of the 8 teams playing has a QB picked in the first round..................................................... then Brock Purdy (Mr. Irrelevant 2022)... minor addition to your post. :)That is all
@"StickyBun" said: You go with the odds. But at the same time, 60% of first round QBs selected since 1999 haven't been that team's long-term answer. So the odds are against you. Aren't statistics fun? :pBottom line: its really hard to select a QB early that will pan out....but when you do hit it right on a QB, they mostly come out of round 1.
It's a gamble even in the first round but the odds of a first rounder making it are far greater than subsequent rounds.
You can't hit it right if you don't try. If you are going to take one, why not maximize your odds by taking a first rounder?
The Vikings historically haven't been successful when they have taken a QB early, and also have been unwilling to spend what it takes to move up high enough in the draft.
Hopefully this front office is willing to go get the one they want and not settle for someone they don't.
Sounds like they were looking to do that last year but weren't willing to give up what some other team offered.
@"jargomcfargo" said:@"StickyBun" said: You go with the odds. But at the same time, 60% of first round QBs selected since 1999 haven't been that team's long-term answer. So the odds are against you. Aren't statistics fun? :pBottom line: its really hard to select a QB early that will pan out....but when you do hit it right on a QB, they mostly come out of round 1.
It's a gamble even in the first round but the odds of a first rounder making it are far greater than subsequent rounds.
You can't hit it right if you don't try. If you are going to take one, why not maximize your odds by taking a first rounder?The Vikings historically haven't been successful when they have taken a QB early, and also have been unwilling to spend what it takes to move up high enough in the draft.
Hopefully this front office is willing to go get the one they want and not settle for someone they don't.
Sounds like they were looking to do that last year but weren't willing to give up what some other team offered.
Yep, agreed. Not saying to not take a swing and draft a QB in round 1....its my preference. I'm just saying its no sure thing. Its just part of drafting a QB high: risk and reward.
After 50 years of coming up short I would be ok the Viking pushing some chips to the center of the table to move up for a QB that they had conviction over. Also letting that QB sit for 1 year. Waiting till 11 and holding your nose to pick who is left over seems dumb.. imo
@"Still Hurtn" said: After 50 years of coming up short I would be ok the Viking pushing some chips to the center of the table to move up for a QB that they had conviction over. Also letting that QB sit for 1 year. Waiting till 11 and holding your nose to pick who is left over seems dumb.. imo
I don't disagree with this but given the amount of draft needs that we have, I'm reluctant to trade away draft picks. Tough decision for sure & I'm glad that I don't have to make it. It's going to be a make or break offseason for KAM.
Personally, If we don't resign Kirko, I don't see us as a playoff contender next season. I'd rather hang onto those [picks.
If you keep doing what you have been doing, you will get the same result. Another contract for a 36 yr old injured QB sounds exciting doesn't it? Then when he goes down or doesn't play at 90% who do we blame? The defense, the coach, bad luck, etc. Rinse and repeat.
Hey, at least we still have all our draft picks :)
@"minny65" said: If you keep doing what you have been doing, you will get the same result. Another contract for a 36 yr old injured QB sounds exciting doesn't it? Then when he goes down or doesn't play at 90% who do we blame? The defense, the coach, bad luck, etc. Rinse and repeat.Hey, at least we still have all our draft picks :)
nothing in the 3rd and only two in the top 100. That is going to hurt this year.
@"Knucklehead" said:@"Still Hurtn" said: After 50 years of coming up short I would be ok the Viking pushing some chips to the center of the table to move up for a QB that they had conviction over. Also letting that QB sit for 1 year. Waiting till 11 and holding your nose to pick who is left over seems dumb.. imoI don't disagree with this but given the amount of draft needs that we have, I'm reluctant to trade away draft picks. Tough decision for sure & I'm glad that I don't have to make it. It's going to be a make or break offseason for KAM.
Personally, If we don't resign Kirko, I don't see us as a playoff contender next season. I'd rather hang onto those [picks.
I dont see the team as a legit contender next season with him though either ( unless it comes at a shockingly low price ) since KAM has drafted so poorly, and we dont have shit for draft picks this year, I think we are going to need to see more early FA activity to even maintain the same level of football, let alone make a jump to try and challenge for the division.
Who are the real Vikings???
The team that had 13 wins in spite of a 31st ranked D?
Or the team picking #11 in the draft, that lost their top QB, their top WR and was pretty decimated by injuries above and beyond that the last 1/2 of the season?
I also think they can clear a bunch of cap quickly and easily.
The rest aint so easy like @ QB.
Obviously better prospects are drafted earlier, but there’s
some amount of bias in this way of thinking in that when you draft a QB in the
first and to a lesser degree the second and third rounds, there’s a much
greater pressure to start them whether or not they’re ready or not. Later round draft picks have a much harder
path to get on the field in the first place.
Like for example, lets swap Love for Hall. If Jordan Love was drafted to the Vikings with
the same pick that drafted Hall and he performed similarly as he did for the
Packers in his first game for the Vikings, would the Vikings have been as
patient with him as the Packers were or would he have gone straight to the
bench after he wasn’t immediately a playoff caliber QB?
@"Still Hurtn" said: After 50 years of coming up short I would be ok the Viking pushing some chips to the center of the table to move up for a QB that they had conviction over. Also letting that QB sit for 1 year. Waiting till 11 and holding your nose to pick who is left over seems dumb.. imo
Who's going to trade them a top 3?
Chicago, Commanders or Patriots?
My point being, it doesnt matter if they have conviction, you gotta have a willing partner and I dont see it.
Any QB after the top 3 is most likely a big step down.
I guess we'll see after the personal work outs, combine, Sr bowl etc. just how big that gap is.
@"purplefaithful" said:@"Still Hurtn" said: After 50 years of coming up short I would be ok the Viking pushing some chips to the center of the table to move up for a QB that they had conviction over. Also letting that QB sit for 1 year. Waiting till 11 and holding your nose to pick who is left over seems dumb.. imoWho's going to trade them a top 3?
Chicago, Commanders or Patriots?
My point being, it doesnt matter if they have conviction, you gotta have a willing partner and I dont see it.
Any QB after the top 3 is most likely a big step down.
I guess we'll see after the personal work outs, combine, Sr bowl etc. just how big that gap is.
I agree. It doesn't seem very likely. But really all that has to happen is the Bears deciding to stay with Fields and taking MHJ with one of the first three picks. I could see the Pats leap-frogging the Commies to get Caleb. This pushes QB3 to #4, which should be readily available to the highest bidder. There's also a chance that one of the Commies or Patriots take a free agent, both teams having been burned by their last 1st round QBOTF. A very slight chance IMO, but it's there.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said:@"Still Hurtn" said: After 50 years of coming up short I would be ok the Viking pushing some chips to the center of the table to move up for a QB that they had conviction over. Also letting that QB sit for 1 year. Waiting till 11 and holding your nose to pick who is left over seems dumb.. imoWho's going to trade them a top 3?
Chicago, Commanders or Patriots?
My point being, it doesnt matter if they have conviction, you gotta have a willing partner and I dont see it.
Any QB after the top 3 is most likely a big step down.
I guess we'll see after the personal work outs, combine, Sr bowl etc. just how big that gap is.
I agree. It doesn't seem very likely. But really all that has to happen is the Bears deciding to stay with Fields and taking MHJ with one of the first three picks. I could see the Pats leap-frogging the Commies to get Caleb. This pushes QB3 to #4, which should be readily available to the highest bidder. There's also a chance that one of the Commies or Patriots take a free agent, both teams having been burned by their last 1st round QBOTF. A very slight chance IMO, but it's there.
Lets see what happens with their OC hire...That could be a BIG TELL as to what they might do @ QB.
@"Knucklehead" said:@"Still Hurtn" said: After 50 years of coming up short I would be ok the Viking pushing some chips to the center of the table to move up for a QB that they had conviction over. Also letting that QB sit for 1 year. Waiting till 11 and holding your nose to pick who is left over seems dumb.. imoI don't disagree with this but given the amount of draft needs that we have, I'm reluctant to trade away draft picks. Tough decision for sure & I'm glad that I don't have to make it. It's going to be a make or break offseason for KAM.
Personally, If we don't resign Kirko, I don't see us as a playoff contender next season. I'd rather hang onto those [picks.
This is the mindset I think the vikings brass is stuck with. With all the record picks we have had over the years what has that done to the roster?
Isnt it ironic that today we say we have many holes but if you look back the last 6 or so years we pretty much won the draft volume lottery every year.
My point being we need impact players and sometimes less is more. You cant justify missing out on an impct player let alone a good QB because you were worried about missing on volume or a few mediocre players and saved a draft pick.
@"purplefaithful" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said:@"Still Hurtn" said: After 50 years of coming up short I would be ok the Viking pushing some chips to the center of the table to move up for a QB that they had conviction over. Also letting that QB sit for 1 year. Waiting till 11 and holding your nose to pick who is left over seems dumb.. imoWho's going to trade them a top 3?
Chicago, Commanders or Patriots?
My point being, it doesnt matter if they have conviction, you gotta have a willing partner and I dont see it.
Any QB after the top 3 is most likely a big step down.
I guess we'll see after the personal work outs, combine, Sr bowl etc. just how big that gap is.
I agree. It doesn't seem very likely. But really all that has to happen is the Bears deciding to stay with Fields and taking MHJ with one of the first three picks. I could see the Pats leap-frogging the Commies to get Caleb. This pushes QB3 to #4, which should be readily available to the highest bidder. There's also a chance that one of the Commies or Patriots take a free agent, both teams having been burned by their last 1st round QBOTF. A very slight chance IMO, but it's there.
Lets see what happens with their OC hire...That could be a BIG TELL as to what they might do @ QB.
They hired Waldron instead of Kingsbury, which is proof of nothing, but it probably does move the needle back toward Fields a little. Granted, I think it's still pointing heavily in Caleb's favor.
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