Vikings now with an 83% chance to make playoffs

@"MaroonBells" said:

Leighton Glodek@LGlodekThe opposing QBs the #Vikings have left to play:  Week 11: Russell WilsonWeek 12: Justin FieldsWeek 14: Aidan O’ConnellWeek 15: Jake BrowningWeek 16: Jared GoffWeek 17: Jordan LoveWeek 18: Jared Goff #skol

Have the Vikings EVER beaten him in a game?  Ever?

He aint the Wilson of old but....some things transcend time. 

They are on a bit of a roll and I suspect Dobbs is going to come back to earth one of these games.  Bright/bright lights for the kid Sunday night, national game and he'll have all day Sunday to think about it. 

@"HappyViking" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"medaille" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

I believe that KOC's first choice is Cousins. By probably a wide margin. But it validates his inner thought that the QBOTF needs to have mobility as part of his skill set. 

I don’t think that’s a given at all.  We didn’t extend him yet.  We’re not really willing to give him a “long
term” deal.  I think it seems fairly
clear that we were actively looking for that rookie contract guy.  I think KOC has always said flattering things
about all his players, but I don’t think we should read into that too much and
assume they wouldn’t swap him out for a different model if the right option was
there at the right price.

I think if anything, we’ll either learn that this offense
can run with a “lesser and cheaper” QB just fine, or we’ll learn that Dobbs
turns back into a pumpkin.  Either way I
think the choice will be obvious at the end of the year.  The only way it gets muddled is if Cousins has
to lower his price a lot or if Dobbs raises his price a lot.  If Dobbs signed a contract for $10M/year for
any amount of years and maintains this level of competency, I think Cousins is
out without even having to think about it too much, unless we sign them both
and let them compete.

I see no scenario where Cousins "competes" with Dobbs. But I can see a scenario where Dobbs continues playing well through the playoffs and the Vikings decide that he can be our bridge QB. And a much cheaper one at that. 

Problem is that all these decisions have to be made long before the draft. Considering that the Vikings can't know they're going to land a QB in the draft, I doubt they'd feel comfortable handing the '24 Vikings over to Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall.

If Dobbs keeps playing at a high level the rest of the way, and the Vikes makes the playoffs, I'd be more than surprised KC would be offered a new contract.  I'd fully expect KOC to roll with Dobbs, Hall, and most likely another rookie QB going into next season leaving Cousins off the Viking's roster.  I admit that's a BIG if.  Like everyone else, I'm still not convinced Dobbs is "the guy", but if he plays well these next few games, I will be.  Dobbs would be a great find for this team not all that unlike what Purdy was to the 49ers.

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"kmillard" said: I wonder if they can have a playoff run for the first time since January 88?

09?

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"medaille" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

I believe that KOC's first choice is Cousins. By probably a wide margin. But it validates his inner thought that the QBOTF needs to have mobility as part of his skill set. 

I don’t think that’s a given at all.  We didn’t extend him yet.  We’re not really willing to give him a “long
term” deal.  I think it seems fairly
clear that we were actively looking for that rookie contract guy.  I think KOC has always said flattering things
about all his players, but I don’t think we should read into that too much and
assume they wouldn’t swap him out for a different model if the right option was
there at the right price.

I think if anything, we’ll either learn that this offense
can run with a “lesser and cheaper” QB just fine, or we’ll learn that Dobbs
turns back into a pumpkin.  Either way I
think the choice will be obvious at the end of the year.  The only way it gets muddled is if Cousins has
to lower his price a lot or if Dobbs raises his price a lot.  If Dobbs signed a contract for $10M/year for
any amount of years and maintains this level of competency, I think Cousins is
out without even having to think about it too much, unless we sign them both
and let them compete.

I see no scenario where Cousins "competes" with Dobbs. But I can see a scenario where Dobbs continues playing well through the playoffs and the Vikings decide that he can be our bridge QB. And a much cheaper one at that. 

Problem is that all these decisions have to be made long before the draft. Considering that the Vikings can't know they're going to land a QB in the draft, I doubt they'd feel comfortable handing the '24 Vikings over to Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall.

@"kmillard" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"kmillard" said: I wonder if they can have a playoff run for the first time since January 88?

09?

winning multiple playoff games.

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"kmillard" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"kmillard" said: I wonder if they can have a playoff run for the first time since January 88?

09?

winning multiple playoff games.

well we had a bye  that year IIRC,  so that was out of our hands,  they shit stomped the cowboys,  and if it werent from some real fuckery by the league and the saints they would have won the CG and likely the SB that year... IMO 09 was every bit as much of a run as any other disappointing ending to a great year we've had.

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"HappyViking" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"medaille" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

I believe that KOC's first choice is Cousins. By probably a wide margin. But it validates his inner thought that the QBOTF needs to have mobility as part of his skill set. 

I don’t think that’s a given at all.  We didn’t extend him yet.  We’re not really willing to give him a “long
term” deal.  I think it seems fairly
clear that we were actively looking for that rookie contract guy.  I think KOC has always said flattering things
about all his players, but I don’t think we should read into that too much and
assume they wouldn’t swap him out for a different model if the right option was
there at the right price.

I think if anything, we’ll either learn that this offense
can run with a “lesser and cheaper” QB just fine, or we’ll learn that Dobbs
turns back into a pumpkin.  Either way I
think the choice will be obvious at the end of the year.  The only way it gets muddled is if Cousins has
to lower his price a lot or if Dobbs raises his price a lot.  If Dobbs signed a contract for $10M/year for
any amount of years and maintains this level of competency, I think Cousins is
out without even having to think about it too much, unless we sign them both
and let them compete.

I see no scenario where Cousins "competes" with Dobbs. But I can see a scenario where Dobbs continues playing well through the playoffs and the Vikings decide that he can be our bridge QB. And a much cheaper one at that. 

Problem is that all these decisions have to be made long before the draft. Considering that the Vikings can't know they're going to land a QB in the draft, I doubt they'd feel comfortable handing the '24 Vikings over to Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall.

If Dobbs keeps playing at a high level the rest of the way, and the Vikes makes the playoffs, I'd be more than surprised KC would be offered a new contract.  I'd fully expect KOC to roll with Dobbs, Hall, and most likely another rookie QB going into next season leaving Cousins off the Viking's roster.  I admit that's a BIG if.  Like everyone else, I'm still not convinced Dobbs is "the guy", but if he plays well these next few games, I will be.  Dobbs would be a great find for this team not all that unlike what Purdy was to the 49ers.

Purdy wasn't released by 8 teams.

Look, I don't want to be a wet blanket here. Dobbs has been sensational, but it's a small sample size. I actually do expect him to play well over the next few games, because he should still benefit, at least a little, from defenses having little to no film of him running this offense. That could last through the season. 

What I don't expect is Dobbs to continue doing what he's doing into next season and then indefinitely. I'd love to be wrong about that, and that the Vikings stumbled upon an absolutely FREE QBOTF, but it seems so unlikely given what we know. 

@"medaille" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"medaille" said:

@"StickyBun" said:

I believe that KOC's first choice is Cousins. By probably a wide margin. But it validates his inner thought that the QBOTF needs to have mobility as part of his skill set. 

I don’t think that’s a given at all.  We didn’t extend him yet.  We’re not really willing to give him a “long
term” deal.  I think it seems fairly
clear that we were actively looking for that rookie contract guy.  I think KOC has always said flattering things
about all his players, but I don’t think we should read into that too much and
assume they wouldn’t swap him out for a different model if the right option was
there at the right price.

I think if anything, we’ll either learn that this offense
can run with a “lesser and cheaper” QB just fine, or we’ll learn that Dobbs
turns back into a pumpkin.  Either way I
think the choice will be obvious at the end of the year.  The only way it gets muddled is if Cousins has
to lower his price a lot or if Dobbs raises his price a lot.  If Dobbs signed a contract for $10M/year for
any amount of years and maintains this level of competency, I think Cousins is
out without even having to think about it too much, unless we sign them both
and let them compete.

I see no scenario where Cousins "competes" with Dobbs. But I can see a scenario where Dobbs continues playing well through the playoffs and the Vikings decide that he can be our bridge QB. And a much cheaper one at that. 

Problem is that all these decisions have to be made long before the draft. Considering that the Vikings can't know they're going to land a QB in the draft, I doubt they'd feel comfortable handing the '24 Vikings over to Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall.

Yeah, I also doubt that Cousins and Dobbs would both
resign.  I don’t think it matters that
much that FA comes before the draft.  I
don’t think the draft factors anything into this decision.  I think they’re going to want to have a
veteran QB and a rookie in the pipeline. 
It’s really more on whether it’s Dobbs or Cousins as the veteran and I
think they’ll know all they really need to know by the end of the season as far
as Dobbs is concerned, and then it’s mostly a matter of how much Cousins can
show on the ankle before free agency hits and how much they trust an older QB
with an ankle that’s gone through the breaking and healing process.  I don’t think Cousins is without question
marks.  I think he’s answered some of
them, but people are always going to question whether he has the mojo to get
things done in the playoffs until he actually goes on a solid playoff run.

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"kmillard" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said:

@"kmillard" said: I wonder if they can have a playoff run for the first time since January 88?

09?

winning multiple playoff games.

well we had a bye  that year IIRC,  so that was out of our hands,  they shit stomped the cowboys,  and if it werent from some real fuckery by the league and the saints they would have won the CG and likely the SB that year... IMO 09 was every bit as much of a run as any other disappointing ending to a great year we've had.

One comp on Kirk’s injury- Last offseason the Raiders signed Jimmy G for 3 years/$72M (he won’t see year 3 of that deal) early in free agency. But his foot was hurt. So rather than guaranteeing a large signing bonus like most teams would, they fully guaranteed his 2023 contract pending a physical he would take later— I believe at the start of training camp.

Situation is hardly ideal since although Jimmy G passed the physical, there was some chance he wouldn’t and then the Raiders would be SOL. The team signing Kirk might have to do something similar depending on where he’s at with his Achilles in March.

Since the Raiders were expected to stink by most, there was a bit less of a risk than if we were to do the same concept for Kirk, considering we should hopefully be a contender next year. The last thing you want is to count on Kirk, skip drafting a QB in the draft, lose Dobbs, and then have Kirk unable to pass a physical in July.

Not sure how likely any of that is to happen, but it’s yet another moving part to be aware of. 

Dustin Baker@DustBakerVikings Playoff Probability,for Week 11 & 12:
Lose to DEN | Lose to CHI = 55%Lose to DEN = 71%Right Now = 80%Beat DEN | Lose to CHI = 81%Lose to DEN | Beat CHI = 81%Beat DEN = 90%Beat DEN | Beat CHI = 96%

@"MaroonBells" said:

Dustin Baker@DustBakerVikings Playoff Probability,for Week 11 & 12: Lose to DEN | Lose to CHI = 55%Lose to DEN = 71%Right Now = 80%Beat DEN | Lose to CHI = 81%Lose to DEN | Beat CHI = 81%Beat DEN = 90%Beat DEN | Beat CHI = 96%

@"StickyBun" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

Dustin Baker@DustBakerVikings Playoff Probability,for Week 11 & 12: Lose to DEN | Lose to CHI = 55%Lose to DEN = 71%Right Now = 80%Beat DEN | Lose to CHI = 81%Lose to DEN | Beat CHI = 81%Beat DEN = 90%Beat DEN | Beat CHI = 96%

Buffalo had a 98% chance to beat Minnesota last year in the 4th quarter. Its just smoke, the odds. They can change significantly week to week.

@"StickyBun" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

Dustin Baker@DustBakerVikings Playoff Probability,for Week 11 & 12: Lose to DEN | Lose to CHI = 55%Lose to DEN = 71%Right Now = 80%Beat DEN | Lose to CHI = 81%Lose to DEN | Beat CHI = 81%Beat DEN = 90%Beat DEN | Beat CHI = 96%

Buffalo had a 98% chance to beat Minnesota last year in the 4th quarter. Its just smoke, the odds. They can change significantly week to week.

@"pattersaur" said: One comp on Kirk’s injury- Last offseason the Raiders signed Jimmy G for 3 years/$72M (he won’t see year 3 of that deal) early in free agency. But his foot was hurt. So rather than guaranteeing a large signing bonus like most teams would, they fully guaranteed his 2023 contract pending a physical he would take later— I believe at the start of training camp.

Situation is hardly ideal since although Jimmy G passed the physical, there was some chance he wouldn’t and then the Raiders would be SOL. The team signing Kirk might have to do something similar depending on where he’s at with his Achilles in March.

Since the Raiders were expected to stink by most, there was a bit less of a risk than if we were to do the same concept for Kirk, considering we should hopefully be a contender next year. The last thing you want is to count on Kirk, skip drafting a QB in the draft, lose Dobbs, and then have Kirk unable to pass a physical in July.

Not sure how likely any of that is to happen, but it’s yet another moving part to be aware of. 

Whether he is Case Keenum part deux, or whether the Rocket Man burns up on reentry after a few orbits and Jaren Hall gets the rest of his tryout, I believe that KAM/KOC are moving on from Kirk.

I’ve had my heart ripped out of my chest many times already by the Vikings, I’m immune to the pain!

@"Riphawkins" said: I’ve had my heart ripped out of my chest many times already by the Vikings, I’m immune to the pain!

@"StickyBun" said:

@"Riphawkins" said: I’ve had my heart ripped out of my chest many times already by the Vikings, I’m immune to the pain!

I'm not immune, but very used to the Viking pain. Still hurts but I can deal with it.  :p

ATTN ALL SUNSHINE FACTORY EMPLOYEES: Starting immediately, management has decided to cut back to only two shifts per day until further notice. Thank you. 

Somehow, the Vikings are still at 80% to make the playoffs.