I think this is a 9-win football team for 2023

I'll say 9 is the floor with 11 being the ceiling. We'll win just enough games to put us out of the range to draft an elite QB prospect in the first round next year. It's the Viking way.

I'm in that 9-11 range...

Barring anything catastrophic. 

I am thinking 12. Every few years the media loses their shit over the Lions. And every year the Lions show they are still in their 65 year (and counting) rebuild. Green Bay shouldn't be a threat. The Bears are the Bears.We should see 5-6 wins from division games alone. If we were to take a game from one the heavy hitters, we could be looking at 13-14 wins. Chiefs, 49rs, and Chargers are all home games.
It's easy to get excited about this team.

I'd say 10 wins this year, maybe up to 12 wins possibly.  This will show me that the team is ultimately moving in the right direction...

I don't think it is as talented as last years team, I think the leadership and talents of guys like Cook, Thielen, Peterson and Kendricks are going to be greatly missed.  I think the biggest reason we won the close games last year was Cousins, he was extremely clutch in the big moments, if he can continue to build on what he did last year then I think we have a chance to be a 10+ win team.  The other significant factor is which Flores we get, do we get the guy who is a solid DC or the vengeful, egomaniac that players reported him to be, I think he was a big risk hire, but hopefully what he has gone through has changed him for the better.  

Departures
RB Dalvin Cook, LB Eric Kendricks, CB Patrick Peterson, CB Duke Shelley, Edge Za’Darius Smith, CB Chandon Sullivan, WR Adam Thielen, DT Dalvin Tomlinson 

Additions
WR Jordan Addison, EDGE Marcus Davenport, DL Dean Lowry, CB Byron Murphy, TE Josh Oliver, LB Troy Reeder, CB Joejuan Williams, CB Mekhi Blackmon

@"JR44" said: I don't think it is as talented as last years team, I think the leadership and talents of guys like Cook, Thielen, Peterson and Kendricks are going to be greatly missed.  I think the biggest reason we won the close games last year was Cousins, he was extremely clutch in the big moments, if he can continue to build on what he did last year then I think we have a chance to be a 10+ win team.  The other significant factor is which Flores we get, do we get the guy who is a solid DC or the vengeful, egomaniac that players reported him to be, I think he was a big risk hire, but hopefully what he has gone through has changed him for the better.  

Departures
RB Dalvin Cook, LB Eric Kendricks, CB Patrick Peterson, CB Duke Shelley, Edge Za’Darius Smith, CB Chandon Sullivan, WR Adam Thielen, DT Dalvin Tomlinson 

Additions
WR Jordan Addison, EDGE Marcus Davenport, DL Dean Lowry, CB Byron Murphy, TE Josh Oliver, LB Troy Reeder, CB Joejuan Williams, CB Mekhi Blackmon

There were LEGIT times last year where our defenders had no idea where they were supposed to be lining up.  Kendricks wasn't comfortable all year.  Hunter looked out of place a ton.  Corners 15 yards off the line routinely. All we need is cohesiveness on D and we'll be a better unit even if they start with less talent.  None of us know if that happens this year but we can hope. 

From Packer Central - FWIW

Around the NFC North: Minnesota Vikings - Sports Illustrated Green Bay Packers News, Analysis and More

Season outlook: 
The Vikings continue to follow what GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah described last year as a competitive rebuild. This offseason, with an eye on 2024 and beyond, they cleaned up their future salary cap outlook by moving on from veterans like Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and several others. In free agency, their marquee moves were short-term deals for Marcus Davenport, Josh Oliver, and Byron Murphy Jr., a trio of second-contract players in the prime of their careers.
Even after parting with Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and six starters from last year's porous defense, the Vikings believe they can repeat as NFC North champions in 2023 and perhaps make a run in the playoffs. Why? Because their offense has a chance to be among the league's best in year two of the Kevin O'Connell era. Kirk Cousins should have a greater command of O'Connell's system this year, and he'll be throwing to a loaded pass-catching corps that includes Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, K.J. Osborn, and first-round rookie Jordan Addison. The addition of Oliver, an elite run-blocking tight end, is sneakily huge for a team that struggled to be efficient on the ground last season.
Defensively, there's nowhere to go but up. O'Connell brought in Brian Flores to overhaul the team's scheme and mentality on that side of the ball; the Vikings promise to be a much more aggressive defense in 2023. With Danielle Hunter back for another season and second-year players Akayleb Evans and Brian Asamoah set to emerge, this could at least be a competent unit. And if the offense is both efficient and explosive, competence on D might be good enough.
Obviously, some regression is coming to a team that went 11-0 in one-score games last year on its way to 13 wins. Still, there's a chance they get notably better as a team and win another 11 games. That feels like the ceiling with a difficult schedule. There are also more than enough question marks — interior pass protection, cornerback play, pass rush depth — that it's not hard to envision the Vikings taking a big step back and winning seven or eight games this year. - Will Ragatz Inside the Vikings

@"StickyBun" said: We all know why: a bad defense that will only improve so much and an offense, although incredibly dangerous at times, will have some issues on that offensive line. I see the D losing us games again this season that the offense, although they will battle mightily, just cannot repeat those last minute, one score victories like they did last year. And unfortunately, 9 wins is the kind of mediocrity that hurts you in the Draft selection (I say this in the context of QBOTF). 

Would love to be wrong and I often am. Its why they play the games, as the NFL is amazingly consistent in how unpredictable each season is year-to-year. 

@"comet52" said:

@"StickyBun" said: We all know why: a bad defense that will only improve so much and an offense, although incredibly dangerous at times, will have some issues on that offensive line. I see the D losing us games again this season that the offense, although they will battle mightily, just cannot repeat those last minute, one score victories like they did last year. And unfortunately, 9 wins is the kind of mediocrity that hurts you in the Draft selection (I say this in the context of QBOTF). 

Would love to be wrong and I often am. Its why they play the games, as the NFL is amazingly consistent in how unpredictable each season is year-to-year. 

I wanted you to jump that shark and call it 14-3.   B)

I feel less confident in predicting a win total than I did
last year, mostly due to the conflicting nature of us upgrading our DC, while replacing
our older veteran talent with unknowns. 
I think there’s a reasonable chance that Flores can get us from abysmal to
middle of the pack just based on how much of an upgrade he is over
Donatell.  That said, I could also see a
scenario play out where he just can’t polish that turd enough.

It’s absolutely unreasonable to assume we’ll have as much
magic as we did last year in winning one score games, but if the defense steps
up a bit, and our offense raises their floor a bit during the middle of the
games, maybe we don’t have to.

My gut feeling says 10-11 wins, but I’m not going to be
surprised if it falls apart, and I’m depending on being pleasantly surprised by
some players that are having to step up this year.  I can’t see us with less than 7 wins unless
Cousins is injured for several games.

@"minny65" said: From Packer Central - FWIW

Around the NFC North: Minnesota Vikings - Sports Illustrated Green Bay Packers News, Analysis and More

Season outlook: 
The Vikings continue to follow what GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah described last year as a competitive rebuild. This offseason, with an eye on 2024 and beyond, they cleaned up their future salary cap outlook by moving on from veterans like Adam Thielen, Eric Kendricks, and several others. In free agency, their marquee moves were short-term deals for Marcus Davenport, Josh Oliver, and Byron Murphy Jr., a trio of second-contract players in the prime of their careers.
Even after parting with Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and six starters from last year's porous defense, the Vikings believe they can repeat as NFC North champions in 2023 and perhaps make a run in the playoffs. Why? Because their offense has a chance to be among the league's best in year two of the Kevin O'Connell era. Kirk Cousins should have a greater command of O'Connell's system this year, and he'll be throwing to a loaded pass-catching corps that includes Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, K.J. Osborn, and first-round rookie Jordan Addison. The addition of Oliver, an elite run-blocking tight end, is sneakily huge for a team that struggled to be efficient on the ground last season.
Defensively, there's nowhere to go but up. O'Connell brought in Brian Flores to overhaul the team's scheme and mentality on that side of the ball; the Vikings promise to be a much more aggressive defense in 2023. With Danielle Hunter back for another season and second-year players Akayleb Evans and Brian Asamoah set to emerge, this could at least be a competent unit. And if the offense is both efficient and explosive, competence on D might be good enough.
Obviously, some regression is coming to a team that went 11-0 in one-score games last year on its way to 13 wins. Still, there's a chance they get notably better as a team and win another 11 games. That feels like the ceiling with a difficult schedule. There are also more than enough question marks — interior pass protection, cornerback play, pass rush depth — that it's not hard to envision the Vikings taking a big step back and winning seven or eight games this year. - Will Ragatz Inside the Vikings

Until they are dethrone, they are still kings of the north.

I'm actually more optimistic about the Vikings this year than I was last year.  It'll be tough to win 13 games again, but I could see us being a stronger overall team but only have 10 or 11 wins. 

I think we'll still have a high end offense and I think we'll still be strong situationally like we were last year (that alone helped us win this close games).  Difference will be our defense "should" be better with Flores.  I think we'll have more 3 and outs but will probably still give up yards.  That's the way the league is trending...  It's just who can get more turnovers and 3 and outs to give your offense more chances to score.

@"Wetlander" said: I'm actually more optimistic about the Vikings this year than I was last year.  It'll be tough to win 13 games again, but I could see us being a stronger overall team but only have 10 or 11 wins. 

I think we'll still have a high end offense and I think we'll still be strong situationally like we were last year (that alone helped us win this close games).  Difference will be our defense "should" be better with Flores.  I think we'll have more 3 and outs but will probably still give up yards.  That's the way the league is trending...  It's just who can get more turnovers and 3 and outs to give your offense more chances to score.

I think we are also a 8 or 9 win team for a few reasons;

- a lot of luck along the way in pulling out some miracle wins last year. You can't expect that to happen two years in a row

- we suffered almost zero significant injuries last year. Don't expect that to happen two years in a row

- have we absolutely upgraded any of the roster positions we were deficient last season? We don't know, but on face value I'd say probably not. Kendriks for Asamoah, Thielen for Addison, Smith for Davenport, PP for Murphy, etc. I know where we definitely have downgraded is at running back. 

- division will be much more competitive 

This just smells like a .500 football team to me 

I think we upgraded the coaching on D,  but likely have taken a step back in talent on that side of the ball,  I am very concerned about our run defense once again,  it seemed that teams rarely had an issue running in short yardage between the 20s when they had the entire field to work with, we did look a little better in condensed situations where the defense didnt have so much room to cover,  but that should go with most any defense.  I also question if we have made any gains on O,   Addison and Nailer,  should be able to cover up for the lost production from AT, but his leadership may be missed.  ISjr... well I could make up for his lost production so we are good at TE, but I know continuity is a big thing for OL play,  but IMO it wasnt a lack of continuity for our interior OL last year,  it was a lack of an anchor, so running Bradberry back out there again does nothing for me in terms of expectation for improvement,  in fact our interior OL has looked like crap since Cleveland was moved from right to left guard IMO ( I thought he played better on the right side and I dont recall as many free rushes through that right gap as we have seen the last couple years)  all in all,   I think we will have a better team,  but a worse record, maybe a 1 and done in the playoffs,  and once again be picking late teens early 20s.

I think the range of outcomes is wider this year than most. We just have a lot of new parts and question marks. 

What irritates me is how people talk about the one score-wins (as if our record were a mirage) without even mentioning the fact that the year before 7 of our 9 losses were by one score. The '22 version just figured out how to play better situational football, but that was basically the same roster. An 11 (ish)-win roster. 

With a middling defense, this team beats the Giants by 14. I expect a better defense this year. Just not sure how much better. But I think most are underrating how much better the Vikings offense can be in year two, even without Dalvin. The key will be health (obviously) and Jordan Addison. If he takes some time to figure it all out, the offense likely won't improve. But if he has a, say, Keenan Allen type rookie season, the Vikings are going to be put a metric shitload of points on the board. 

Either way, buckle in. This could be the most fun-to-watch purple team in decades. 

@"JimmyinSD" said: I think we upgraded the coaching on D,  but likely have taken a step back in talent on that side of the ball,  I am very concerned about our run defense once again,  it seemed that teams rarely had an issue running in short yardage between the 20s when they had the entire field to work with, we did look a little better in condensed situations where the defense didnt have so much room to cover,  but that should go with most any defense.  I also question if we have made any gains on O,   Addison and Nailer,  should be able to cover up for the lost production from AT, but his leadership may be missed.  ISjr... well I could make up for his lost production so we are good at TE, but I know continuity is a big thing for OL play,  but IMO it wasnt a lack of continuity for our interior OL last year,  it was a lack of an anchor, so running Bradberry back out there again does nothing for me in terms of expectation for improvement,  in fact our interior OL has looked like crap since Cleveland was moved from right to left guard IMO ( I thought he played better on the right side and I dont recall as many free rushes through that right gap as we have seen the last couple years)  all in all,   I think we will have a better team,  but a worse record, maybe a 1 and done in the playoffs,  and once again be picking late teens early 20s.

IDK, 4 wins is all I see…!  ;) B)  

@"supafreak84" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said: I think we upgraded the coaching on D,  but likely have taken a step back in talent on that side of the ball,  I am very concerned about our run defense once again,  it seemed that teams rarely had an issue running in short yardage between the 20s when they had the entire field to work with, we did look a little better in condensed situations where the defense didnt have so much room to cover,  but that should go with most any defense.  I also question if we have made any gains on O,   Addison and Nailer,  should be able to cover up for the lost production from AT, but his leadership may be missed.  ISjr... well I could make up for his lost production so we are good at TE, but I know continuity is a big thing for OL play,  but IMO it wasnt a lack of continuity for our interior OL last year,  it was a lack of an anchor, so running Bradberry back out there again does nothing for me in terms of expectation for improvement,  in fact our interior OL has looked like crap since Cleveland was moved from right to left guard IMO ( I thought he played better on the right side and I dont recall as many free rushes through that right gap as we have seen the last couple years)  all in all,   I think we will have a better team,  but a worse record, maybe a 1 and done in the playoffs,  and once again be picking late teens early 20s.

That's been my concern also. While I think the pass defense will be improved by virtue of scheme change under Flores and some hopefully healthy bodies, I think the run defense will struggle. We struggled last season but we're so poor against the pass teams just kept stealing and didn't feel the need to run it. It was pitch and catch essentially. Tonga, Lowry and Phillips are just guys to me and the backups aren't much better. We don't penetrate or collapse the pocket. Despite the disagreement of others, I think we are small at linebacker and Hicks is past his prime. None of this adds up to a stout run defense and if we are going to simply allow free lineman to get to the second level consistently and put a body on our linebackers, we are going to be in trouble. Scheme and coaching only go so far. You need the horses to make it work and that's where I think we are lacking 

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"supafreak84" said:

@"JimmyinSD" said: I think we upgraded the coaching on D,  but likely have taken a step back in talent on that side of the ball,  I am very concerned about our run defense once again,  it seemed that teams rarely had an issue running in short yardage between the 20s when they had the entire field to work with, we did look a little better in condensed situations where the defense didnt have so much room to cover,  but that should go with most any defense.  I also question if we have made any gains on O,   Addison and Nailer,  should be able to cover up for the lost production from AT, but his leadership may be missed.  ISjr... well I could make up for his lost production so we are good at TE, but I know continuity is a big thing for OL play,  but IMO it wasnt a lack of continuity for our interior OL last year,  it was a lack of an anchor, so running Bradberry back out there again does nothing for me in terms of expectation for improvement,  in fact our interior OL has looked like crap since Cleveland was moved from right to left guard IMO ( I thought he played better on the right side and I dont recall as many free rushes through that right gap as we have seen the last couple years)  all in all,   I think we will have a better team,  but a worse record, maybe a 1 and done in the playoffs,  and once again be picking late teens early 20s.

That's been my concern also. While I think the pass defense will be improved by virtue of scheme change under Flores and some hopefully healthy bodies, I think the run defense will struggle. We struggled last season but we're so poor against the pass teams just kept stealing and didn't feel the need to run it. It was pitch and catch essentially. Tonga, Lowry and Phillips are just guys to me and the backups aren't much better. We don't penetrate or collapse the pocket. Despite the disagreement of others, I think we are small at linebacker and Hicks is past his prime. None of this adds up to a stout run defense and if we are going to simply allow free lineman to get to the second level consistently and put a body on our linebackers, we are going to be in trouble. Scheme and coaching only go so far. You need the horses to make it work and that's where I think we are lacking 

You're right. We don't yet have the horses for a top half defense. But I don't hear anyone arguing that we will. It doesn't have to be top half. If Flores and the aggressive new scheme improves the defense from 31st to, say, 21st, this team will be better than it was last year.