Death of analytics

Good grief, come down off the ledge would you? 

@"VikingOracle" said: Will this draft by Kwesi damage the reputation of analytics in football?

Did we just see the dawn of the Les Steckel era of Vikings General Managers? 

Has your hope for the new regime died?

Answers: 
1 - this whole analytics thing is the latest bullshit-IMO.  Every one of these high level folks can do analytics.  Spelly, love or hate hin, was ahead of that curve.  I said from day one with the wall street whiz kid that the purple world was going to make him into to something that hasn't been vetted.  He has a limited history in the NFL.  He is not a genius or a fool after one pick.  I am a numbers guy/degree in Finance/Accounting and Master(de-bater) is Business Management.  Numbers/analytics can be molded and tweaked anyway you want if the audience is not analytical which is very common even at very high levels.

2-The reference to Les is nuclear, you should be banned from this site forever...but I think 24 hours will suffice.  The name that beings with an "L" and ends with some other letter was a blur and should be considered the cold water version of the Bermuda Triangle. Did "Wes" really happen? If it did, I will press charges, if anyone has my back???  Yea I thought so.

3- Did my hope die?  Yes, my lottery number does not look like I expected at all.  It's a Cine.  But my job is not on the line, and I have about 1% of their knowledge to make those decisions which are micro in the scheme of things.

The Macro, I am not thrilled about at all.  But I digress.

Tonight after one trade down and one pick is not what "I" expected at all.  But I am just another fan with very limited information.

Can we just win a fuckin SB already!!!

(I did admit I had a wee drop too much, right?)

Sorry, but tis was NOT a good start to this regime. This was a complete shitting of the bed. I get you want to do something your way. But this was not the time to do it. If you don't end up being the smartest person in the room.... after doing this.... Yer the dumbest. And a multi million dollar operation where winning is all that matters has no time to wait on youto figure it out. 

I was not sad to see zim and rick go....that doesn't mean that I have to have faith that these guys will be worlds better. It is quite possible that we are still in a bad situation. Hope it all works out but I haven't seen anything to get excited about. 

Time will tell, not jumping off any ledges yet. I am willing to let this play out, very possible Vikes come out of this looking good. 

That was a shit trade. I like the Cine pick OK. KAM may luck out and the end result may not be awful, but that was a shit trade. 

@"Mike Olson" said: Sorry, but tis was NOT a good start to this regime. This was a complete shitting of the bed. I get you want to do something your way. But this was not the time to do it. If you don't end up being the smartest person in the room.... after doing this.... Yer the dumbest. And a multi million dollar operation where winning is all that matters has no time to wait on youto figure it out. 

I was not sad to see zim and rick go....that doesn't mean that I have to have faith that these guys will be worlds better. It is quite possible that we are still in a bad situation. Hope it all works out but I haven't seen anything to get excited about. 

This was a loss in trade value no doubt.

lol, I get the overreaction....its kind of what we do as fans. Like I keep saying all over the board this morning, it will all depend on how these players pan out. Just like every other team. I don't think this move is viewed as quite the disaster as some Viking's fans do, but we'll see. I agree its a long way to trade back and the comp seems to not favor Minnesota. 

I understand the trading back after the quick drafting of Stingley and Gardner...trading back was the smart move.  But going from the 12th pick all the way back to the 32nd pick, not so much.  Especially with what we got in return.
Safety was a need, probably a more need next season's draft...we have a lot more issues than safety.

Like the pick, like the trade down. But what we got in return is just awful. Vikings should've gotten the Lions picks 32 and 34 and it should've ended there. That we gave up our 2nd rounder too is just baffling to me. 

@"Mike Olson" said: Sorry, but tis was NOT a good start to this regime. This was a complete shitting of the bed. I get you want to do something your way. But this was not the time to do it. If you don't end up being the smartest person in the room.... after doing this.... Yer the dumbest. And a multi million dollar operation where winning is all that matters has no time to wait on youto figure it out. 

I was not sad to see zim and rick go....that doesn't mean that I have to have faith that these guys will be worlds better. It is quite possible that we are still in a bad situation. Hope it all works out but I haven't seen anything to get excited about. 

@"Mike Olson" said:
Sorry, but tis was NOT a good start to this regime. This was a complete shitting of the bed. I get you want to do something your way. But this was not the time to do it. If you don't end up being the smartest person in the room.... after doing this.... Yer the dumbest. And a multi million dollar operation where winning is all that matters has no time to wait on youto figure it out. 

I was not sad to see zim and rick go....that doesn't mean that I have to have faith that these guys will be worlds better. It is quite possible that we are still in a bad situation. Hope it all works out but I haven't seen anything to get excited about. 

What if Cine turns out to be a better player than Hamilton?  Then, it’s a great trade. He will have drafted a better player, received an earlier second rounder pick, an extra third rounder, and takes less of a cap hit.  That would be a huge win in all facets.   I’m not saying I like the trade, but it more comes down to how well they’ve judged the talent , than the day after expert analysis.  Too early to tell..

@"MaroonBells" said: Like the pick, like the trade down. But what we got in return is just awful. Vikings should've gotten the Lions picks 32 and 34 and it should've ended there. That we gave up our 2nd rounder too is just baffling to me. 

Yup, according to the draft charts that still would have been in Detroits favor if it was 12 for 32 and 34.

Whichever moron signed off on throwing in our 46 should be fired before they have a chance to f@ck tonight up.  

This strikes me as a desperation move by our GM who didn't want to stay at 12 and couldn't find any other willing trade partners so he took the best deal he could get and got absolutely hosed in the process. 

Had we done nothing, Cine probably would have been there with our 2nd round pick and we could have had an impact player at 12 that could come in and immediately make this team better. Instead, we chose the path of mediocrity like so many Viking Regimes before this one while other teams got aggressive, where able to move up, and get quality picks that apparently weren't good enough for us. 

Overreaction by me, yes, but let's break it down:

1. Kwesi is supposed to bring a new type of management to the Vikings, one more data driven.  His first high visibility move is to make a trade back in the first round that does not bring equal value back according to any prior draft compensation chart (which are already data driven).  So, Kwesi used his data driven analysis to get the Vikings worse compensation than typical.
2. Kwesi did this with a divisional rival.
3. Some may argue that this was the best trade Kwesi could make -- admittedly we don't know -- but the fact that there were so many trades after the Vikings trade makes me think that there should have been multiple offers for the Vikings' pick.  It doesn't feel to me that the Vikings properly worked the phones -- especially if this was their back-up plan all along if the right player did not drop to them at 12.
4. I read in multiple articles that this draft had 15-16 true first round talents so, though I expected a drop back, I only expected one a few spots back.
5. Usually new general managers are somewhat conservative their first draft and for good reason -- they are largely relying on the old regime's scouts, etc.  I don't think Kwesi has put into place his teams of scouts yet so to make such a dramatic, against the draft trade chart, move because of a belief in a certain player (Cine) is a bit stunning to me.  And if the trade back wasn't based on the belief that Cine would be there but blindly made, well I don't think you should blindly make trades in the first round without calculating that the player you are targeting will be there -- especially when you trade back from a prime drafting position.

Frankly, you can't look at the first day of the draft and not be highly disappointed.  Yes, the proof is in the pudding but I am a data driven fan and so far the data says Kwesi sh*t the bed yesterday.

@"kmillard" said:

@"Mike Olson" said: Sorry, but tis was NOT a good start to this regime. This was a complete shitting of the bed. I get you want to do something your way. But this was not the time to do it. If you don't end up being the smartest person in the room.... after doing this.... Yer the dumbest. And a multi million dollar operation where winning is all that matters has no time to wait on youto figure it out. 

I was not sad to see zim and rick go....that doesn't mean that I have to have faith that these guys will be worlds better. It is quite possible that we are still in a bad situation. Hope it all works out but I haven't seen anything to get excited about. 

This was a loss in trade value no doubt.

@"peacebringer" said:

@"kmillard" said:

@"Mike Olson" said: Sorry, but tis was NOT a good start to this regime. This was a complete shitting of the bed. I get you want to do something your way. But this was not the time to do it. If you don't end up being the smartest person in the room.... after doing this.... Yer the dumbest. And a multi million dollar operation where winning is all that matters has no time to wait on youto figure it out. 

I was not sad to see zim and rick go....that doesn't mean that I have to have faith that these guys will be worlds better. It is quite possible that we are still in a bad situation. Hope it all works out but I haven't seen anything to get excited about. 

This was a loss in trade value no doubt.

not according to ESPN trade analyzer, vikings to the plus side per them. 

@"VikingOracle" said: Overreaction by me, yes, but let's break it down:

1. Kwesi is supposed to bring a new type of management to the Vikings, one more data driven.  His first high visibility move is to make a trade back in the first round that does not bring equal value back according to any prior draft compensation chart (which are already data driven).  So, Kwesi used his data driven analysis to get the Vikings worse compensation than typical.
2. Kwesi did this with a divisional rival.
3. Some may argue that this was the best trade Kwesi could make -- admittedly we don't know -- but the fact that there were so many trades after the Vikings trade makes me think that there should have been multiple offers for the Vikings' pick.  It doesn't feel to me that the Vikings properly worked the phones -- especially if this was their back-up plan all along if the right player did not drop to them at 12.
4. I read in multiple articles that this draft had 15-16 true first round talents so, though I expected a drop back, I only expected one a few spots back.
5. Usually new general managers are somewhat conservative their first draft and for good reason -- they are largely relying on the old regime's scouts, etc.  I don't think Kwesi has put into place his teams of scouts yet so to make such a dramatic, against the draft trade chart, move because of a belief in a certain player (Cine) is a bit stunning to me.  And if the trade back wasn't based on the belief that Cine would be there but blindly made, well I don't think you should blindly make trades in the first round without calculating that the player you are targeting will be there -- especially when you trade back from a prime drafting position.

Frankly, you can't look at the first day of the draft and not be highly disappointed.  Yes, the proof is in the pudding but I am a data driven fan and so far the data says Kwesi sh*t the bed yesterday.

Yea and we should expect similar F'Ups from a first year HC.  Prior to the draft Kwesi was a mensa and analytical genius but after one trade down not so much.

CB - Booth is still available!

new gm wad crowned boy genius by most of the  people on here not so much it were to seem. he shit the bed

Great breakdown by Oracle and I completely agree. There was nothing good about that trade down. In a draft light on first round talent, we traded out of a prime spot to pick last in the round for extremely minimal compensation...and to a division rival to make it worse. I think Jameson Williams is going to be a problem for us who now get to face him twice a year within the division. Lions got better last night and the Packers got better last night. We take a safety (which I consider to be a
 minimal impact position) who was projected to be a second round talent, while bypassing the safety everyone considered the best in the class and maybe the best in the last decade. I don't get it. I don't get anything about this trade down and then drafting Cine. On any trade value chart the value comes up 1640 for the picks given up to Detroit, to 1410 for the picks acquired by the Vikings. That's a 230 point swing in value just given up by Kwesi, which on the trade chart is equivalent to the 72nd overall pick in the 3rd round. 

For a new GM trying to make a good first impression in his first draft and excite the fan base, Kwesi did his best Amber Heard impression and shit the bed hard. I was against the hiring of Kwesi because there's just no real football experience there and this is a great example. I haven't felt violated like this since on a draft day since Tice was in charge and running things. Just awful...

Here is another way to think about this -- Kwesi's choice of Cine will always be compared to two different players -- Kyle Hamilton (the safety they could have drafted) and Jameson Williams (the player selected at 12).  Frankly, down the road, no one is going to care that the Vikings moved up 10 spots in the second for the simple reason Cine may very well have been there for the Vikings original 2nd round pick.  

@"supafreak84" said: Great breakdown by Oracle and I completely agree. There was nothing good about that trade down. In a draft light on first round talent, we traded out of a prime spot to pick last in the round for extremely minimal compensation...and to a division rival to make it worse. I think Jameson Williams is going to be a problem for us who now get to face him twice a year within the division. Lions got better last night and the Packers got better last night. We take a safety (which I consider to be a  minimal impact position) who was projected to be a second round talent, while bypassing the safety everyone considered the best in the class and maybe the best in the last decade. I don't get it. I don't get anything about this trade down and then drafting Cine. On any trade value chart the value comes up 1640 for the picks given up to Detroit, to 1410 for the picks acquired by the Vikings. That's a 230 point swing in value just given up by Kwesi, which on the trade chart is equivalent to the 72nd overall pick in the 3rd round. 

For a new GM trying to make a good first impression in his first draft and excite the fan base, Kwesi did his best Amber Heard impression and shit the bed hard. I was against the hiring of Kwesi because there's just no real football experience there and this is a great example. I haven't felt violated like this since on a draft day since Tice was in charge and running things. Just awful...

Yes, and the same goes for our brand spanking first-time calling plays HC.  Expect some speed bumps along the way but I agree Kwesi first move was more of a mogul then a speed bump.  

Many fellow posters just seemed to buy into hype (Kwesi being a genius) and O'Connell (fix KC and our Off becuase he came from the Rams) without being realistic.  They are both very inexperienced at thier new positions, novices really.