Placeholder for QB Prospects
The 2020 quarterback class feels like one in which the order is mostly set—Burrow, Tua, Love/Herbert, Jacob Eason from Washington and then Jake Fromm of Georgia. There's a good chance we see all six drafted in the top 50 selections.
In talking to scouts this week, there is a strong feeling that demand will drive up the value of the supply. Take Fromm, for example. There are scouts who believe the Georgia quarterback's football IQ and experience will impress teams enough that they'll overlook a largely average career statistically at Georgia.
You could poke holes in every quarterback prospect in this class—Burrow's inexperience, Tua's injuries, decision-making from Herbert, Love and Eason—but the simple fact that so many teams need a 2020 starter or quarterback of the future is likely to drive value up.
When asked for a prediction, one personnel executive said five quarterbacks will be drafted in the top 15 picks.
The bad news about potentially six quarterbacks being drafted in the top 50 picks is that there isn't much depth after that. Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts struggled all week and was seen as maybe the next-best option at quarterback.
On my current big board, there are six quarterbacks in the top 60, but after that, the next quarterback is Hurts at No. 130 overall and then Cole McDonald from Hawaii at No. 185. This lack of quarterback depth in the middle rounds is why we could see aggressive moves from teams to come up the board to take a passer.
This isn't a year to hold off until Round 2 or 3 to get a quarterback you can develop. There's no Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson waiting in this class. If you need a quarterback, you'll be drafting one early
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2872824-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-senior-bowl-wide-receivers-climb-the-board?utm_source=cnn.com&utm_campaign=editorial&utm_medium=referral
Hurry-up Vikings, we ain't getting any younger!
Cole McDonald is super interesting. Big kid, big arm.
@"purplefaithful" said:This isn't a year to hold off until Round 2 or 3 to get a quarterback you can develop. There's no Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson waiting in this class. If you need a quarterback, you'll be drafting one early
Statements like this are so stupid. There wasn't a Prescott or Wilson waiting in the middle rounds the year they were drafted either.
I think Herbert separated himself from Love, and could push Tua for QB2. He looked the best out there. He will need to interview well as there are questions about his ability to lead (brought up in the broadcast) and how important football is to him.
If 5 QBs go before #25, plus another 4 WRs, we will be in good shape.
I think Gordon made himself and his A) bona fide arm or B) questionable arm some money yesterday.
https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/justin-herbert-2020-nfl-draft-ceiling
Sounds like 3-13 for Herbert...if he gets passed the Colts, the Bugs at #14 could grab him...
@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said:This isn't a year to hold off until Round 2 or 3 to get a quarterback you can develop. There's no Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson waiting in this class. If you need a quarterback, you'll be drafting one early
Statements like this are so stupid. There wasn't a Prescott or Wilson waiting in the middle rounds the year they were drafted either.
Show me the Power 5 Conference Sr. QB with decent stats and good athleticism that currently projects as a 3rd or 4th Round pick. Both Wilson and Prescott flashed against big time schools so you could see the potential.This class has what, a kid from Hawaii as that third tier of QBs that would go mid-rounds? Not even remotely compatible and the point of both the article and Faithful. This QB class stinks in the middle and really ain't that great besides the top two.
@"FSUVike" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said:This isn't a year to hold off until Round 2 or 3 to get a quarterback you can develop. There's no Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson waiting in this class. If you need a quarterback, you'll be drafting one early
Statements like this are so stupid. There wasn't a Prescott or Wilson waiting in the middle rounds the year they were drafted either.
Show me the Power 5 Conference Sr. QB with decent stats and good athleticism that currently projects as a 3rd or 4th Round pick. Both Wilson and Prescott flashed against big time schools so you could see the potential.This class has what, a kid from Hawaii as that third tier of QBs that would go mid-rounds? Not even remotely compatible and the point of both the article and Faithful. This QB class stinks in the middle and really ain't that great besides the top two.
That's so revisionist. Wilson was too short for the NFL and Prescott was a mechanical mess and was taken a handful of picks before the 5th round by Dallas, who couldn't pull off a trade up for Paxton freaking Lynch.Look, I like Matt Miller, but to suggest there are "no Prescotts or Wilsons" in this draft is arrogant and stupid. How the fuck does he know? He doesn't. And he didn't know those years either. But he's sort of implying that he did.
There are plenty of middle rounders this (and every year) that are equally as problematic and intriguing as Wilson and Prescott...and Logan Thomas and Zach Mettenberger...and Christian Hackenberg and Cody Kessler.
It's just too early. These media scouts have only just started watching film. We haven't even had the combine yet.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"FSUVike" said:@"MaroonBells" said:@"purplefaithful" said:This isn't a year to hold off until Round 2 or 3 to get a quarterback you can develop. There's no Dak Prescott or Russell Wilson waiting in this class. If you need a quarterback, you'll be drafting one early
Statements like this are so stupid. There wasn't a Prescott or Wilson waiting in the middle rounds the year they were drafted either.
Show me the Power 5 Conference Sr. QB with decent stats and good athleticism that currently projects as a 3rd or 4th Round pick. Both Wilson and Prescott flashed against big time schools so you could see the potential.This class has what, a kid from Hawaii as that third tier of QBs that would go mid-rounds? Not even remotely compatible and the point of both the article and Faithful. This QB class stinks in the middle and really ain't that great besides the top two.
That's so revisionist. Wilson was too short for the NFL and Prescott was a mechanical mess and was taken a handful of picks before the 5th round by Dallas, who couldn't pull off a trade up for Paxton freaking Lynch.Look, I like Matt Miller, but to suggest there are "no Prescotts or Wilsons" in this draft is arrogant and stupid. How the fuck does he know? He doesn't. And he didn't know those years either. But he's sort of implying that he did.
There are plenty of middle rounders this (and every year) that are equally as problematic and intriguing as Wilson and Prescott...and Logan Thomas and Zach Mettenberger...and Christian Hackenberg and Cody Kessler.
It's just too early. These media scouts have only just started watching film. We haven't even had the combine yet.
Totally agree... Jalen Hurts is probably the closest to a Wilson or Prescott in this draft. Won games wherever he went against big time schools, excellent leadership qualities, but he has some growing to do as a QB. I like that he seems to be ascending in that regard where he looked like more of a passer at Oklahoma. That said, he's a mid-round pick for a reason. Scouts are going to like him or hate him.
I heard an interesting take the other day. Roll the dice and trade away this years first rounder to perennial bottom feeder that is in rebuild mode (think the bengals) for their first next year and then hope that we have either the first overall for next year or at least the draft capital to move into position to take Lawrence or who ever steps up as the best QB in the draft.
It wouldn't happen but that certainly made me think why we dont see more long term planning like that with picks.
@"JimmyinSD" said: I heard an interesting take the other day. Roll the dice and trade away this years first rounder to perennial bottom feeder that is in rebuild mode (think the bengals) for their first next year and then hope that we have either the first overall for next year or at least the draft capital to move into position to take Lawrence or who ever steps up as the best QB in the draft.It wouldn't happen but that certainly made me think why we dont see more long term planning like that with picks.
"Hope" that we have the first overall next year? No, we're pretty far away from that kind of tear down. What would that say to Hunter and Kendricks and Cook, Thielen, Diggs, etc? And after throwing two seasons away, what happens if Lawrence is a bust? Everyone just assumes he's going to be a great pro. They thought that about Heath Shuler, Andrew Luck and Jamarcus Russell too. Now, you've just taken a playoff team and turned it into a bottom feeder for the next 5, 10 years and wasted the peak years of your core roster.
Vikings are more likely to win a Super Bowl by trimming the fat and fielding the best roster they can while they still have most of its core together. The Packers took a pretty average team and with smoke, mirrors and a lot of luck, won 13 games with it. Maybe Kubiak is a revelation. Maybe they get lucky with a middle rounder or two. Michael Thomas was a 2nd rounder. D-Roy two years ago was a 2nd rounder.
What's more, every 1st QB taken in the draft for the last 22 years (since Peyton Manning) has either been an all out bust (Couch, Russell, Winston) or a disappointment on some level (Alex Smith, Eli, Luck, Newton, Bradford). While the QBs at the top of the league (Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson, Prescott) were taken later.
Lawrence looks good, but the draft is still a crapshoot no matter where you pick.
Agreed its a LONG way to go until the Draft and these rankings are going to change. JMHO, but its a great year to take a QB and let him sit behind a guy like Cousins. The changing of the guard in the NFL is a more athletic type: now I don't mean every guy has to be at a Lamar Jackson level, but they need to move around and throw on the move. A threat to at least get some yardage and first downs with their feet when shit breaks down.
I will defend Matt Miller here about Wilson.
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1146711-matt-millers-final-2012-nfl-draft-big-board#slide1
He has #102 overall but, to prove the people who are critical of him could be right, he had Cousins as the #3 QB that year. Oof.
He had Prescott #97 overall after the 2016 combine. Could not see his final but Prescott probably is in the same area.
Anthony Gordon could be an interesting pick. But only weighing 199 pounds is not going to help. But Wilson only weighed 204 so maybe.
@"MaroonBells" said:@"JimmyinSD" said: I heard an interesting take the other day. Roll the dice and trade away this years first rounder to perennial bottom feeder that is in rebuild mode (think the bengals) for their first next year and then hope that we have either the first overall for next year or at least the draft capital to move into position to take Lawrence or who ever steps up as the best QB in the draft.It wouldn't happen but that certainly made me think why we dont see more long term planning like that with picks.
"Hope" that we have the first overall next year? No, we're pretty far away from that kind of tear down. What would that say to Hunter and Kendricks and Cook, Thielen, Diggs, etc? And after throwing two seasons away, what happens if Lawrence is a bust? Everyone just assumes he's going to be a great pro. They thought that about Heath Shuler, Andrew Luck and Jamarcus Russell too. Now, you've just taken a playoff team and turned it into a bottom feeder for the next 5, 10 years and wasted the peak years of your core roster.Vikings are more likely to win a Super Bowl by trimming the fat and fielding the best roster they can while they still have most of its core together. The Packers took a pretty average team and with smoke, mirrors and a lot of luck, won 13 games with it. Maybe Kubiak is a revelation. Maybe they get lucky with a middle rounder or two. Michael Thomas was a 2nd rounder. D-Roy two years ago was a 2nd rounder.
What's more, every 1st QB taken in the draft for the last 22 years (since Peyton Manning) has either been an all out bust (Couch, Russell, Winston) or a disappointment on some level (Alex Smith, Eli, Luck, Newton, Bradford). While the QBs at the top of the league (Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson, Wilson, Prescott) were taken later.
Lawrence looks good, but the draft is still a crapshoot no matter where you pick.
If using one first round pick to couple with a second first round pick would lead to 5-10 years of bottom feeding... we are a lot closer to that kind of tear down than you want to think. we have missed on first rounders or flat out lost our first round pick several times in the last decade and still have made the playoffs on several occasions so I dont see how gambling 1 years pick to try and improve next years opportunities would be such a ridiculous risk. If we had the chance to trade this years first and next years first for Burrows who wouldnt do that in a heart beat, so really this proposal isnt any different its just a little riskier.
@"MarkSP18" said: I will defend Matt Miller here about Wilson.https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1146711-matt-millers-final-2012-nfl-draft-big-board#slide1
He has #102 overall but, to prove the people who are critical of him could be right, he had Cousins as the #3 QB that year. Oof.
He had Prescott #97 overall after the 2016 combine. Could not see his final but Prescott probably is in the same area.
Anthony Gordon could be an interesting pick. But only weighing 199 pounds is not going to help. But Wilson only weighed 204 so maybe.
You see that as a "defense" of Miller? The fact that he had Cousins higher than consensus argues FOR him, not against him. His ranking of Wilson and Prescott is pretty much in line with consensus.
Look, I think Matt Miller is as good as any of the media scouts. I think of him as one of the better ones. I just don't like it when people use hindsight to their benefit. If he had thought Wilson and Prescott would be Pro Bowl gems teams could mine from the middle rounds, he would've ranked them well above consensus. He didn't.
@"MarkSP18" said: I will defend Matt Miller here about Wilson.https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1146711-matt-millers-final-2012-nfl-draft-big-board#slide1
He has #102 overall but, to prove the people who are critical of him could be right, he had Cousins as the #3 QB that year. Oof.
He had Prescott #97 overall after the 2016 combine. Could not see his final but Prescott probably is in the same area.
Anthony Gordon could be an interesting pick. But only weighing 199 pounds is not going to help. But Wilson only weighed 204 so maybe.
I like Matt Miller a lot, but how is this defending him about his stance on Russell Wilson? He has him as the 7th best QB prospect behind Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Weeden, and Brock Osweiler... now if he had it Luck, RGIII, Cousins, and Wilson... then I would agree he was higher on him than most. But he didn't...
Same thing with Prescott... he has two colossal busts ranked ahead of him in Paxton Lynch and Christian Hackenberg. I guess I don't see where he had those two evaluations correct pre-draft?
It's logic, Maroon. Plain, simple logic. How many Power 5 Conference QBs are Starters vs. from other schools? Way more. So a dearth of mid-round prospects from those schools leaves you mining the rest of the schools that have collectively provided far fewer success stories. Ergo, this Class has a measurable statistical chance of being less likely to produce a Starter than other years.
Now to be perfectly clear we're talking about projecting how human beings will perform, perhaps the most inexact science there is. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if a mid-round kid from a smaller school or conference develops into a Starter. It's just statistically that much harder to predict whom that will be than it is when there are Power 5 kids in the discussion.
Prospect A: 4 Star Recruit. Power 5 School. Inconsistent performance against Top 20 Schools that have some draftable talent on Defense (and in some cases they're playing against Defenses loaded with NFL talent). Prospect has warts (measurables or poor stats or wonky mechanics).
Prospect B: 2 Star Recruit, non-Power 5 School. Put up good but not great numbers. Played some teams that didn't have a single kid on Defense who's going to make it to the League. Faced a few teams (Power 5 or otherwise) with some draftable talent and had mixed results. Prospect also has warts.
I'm personally picking Prospect A far more often than B. There just aren't many who fit that description this year. And I don't trust Rick to figure out which guy in Prospect B pool has the best chance for success. Use that pick for competition at a position of need and look to the next Draft for a QB to develop.
@"FSUVike" said: It's logic, Maroon. Plain, simple logic. How many Power 5 Conference QBs are Starters vs. from other schools? Way more. So a dearth of mid-round prospects from those schools leaves you mining the rest of the schools that have collectively provided far fewer success stories. Ergo, this Class has a measurable statistical chance of being less likely to produce a Starter than other years.Now to be perfectly clear we're talking about projecting how human beings will perform, perhaps the most inexact science there is. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if a mid-round kid from a smaller school or conference develops into a Starter. It's just statistically that much harder to predict whom that will be than it is when there are Power 5 kids in the discussion.
Prospect A: 4 Star Recruit. Power 5 School. Inconsistent performance against Top 20 Schools that have some draftable talent on Defense (and in some cases they're playing against Defenses loaded with NFL talent). Prospect has warts (measurables or poor stats or wonky mechanics).
Prospect B: 2 Star Recruit, non-Power 5 School. Put up good but not great numbers. Played some teams that didn't have a single kid on Defense who's going to make it to the League. Faced a few teams (Power 5 or otherwise) with some draftable talent and had mixed results. Prospect also has warts.
I'm personally picking Prospect A far more often than B. There just aren't many who fit that description this year. And I don't trust Rick to figure out which guy in Prospect B pool has the best chance for success. Use that pick for competition at a position of need and look to the next Draft for a QB to develop.
It's just too early to make any kind of declarative statement about this QB class. Trust me, it's going to change a lot in the next 3 months. There are going to be players who emerge as viable middle rounders. It just always happens. Remember last year? Someone on this board ranted about there being zero chance Greg Little drops out of the top 10. He went in the 2nd round. This time 3 years ago, Deshon Kizer was at the top of most QB rankings and Patrick Mahomes was nowhere to be found. This time 8 years ago, Ryan Mallett was a top 10 pick and Colin Kaepernick was a 7th round pick. This time 7 years ago, Matt Barkley was a top 10 pick.
I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, just that it's too early to make that kind of statement with any sort of confidence.
@"JimmyinSD" said: I heard an interesting take the other day. Roll the dice and trade away this years first rounder to perennial bottom feeder that is in rebuild mode (think the bengals) for their first next year and then hope that we have either the first overall for next year or at least the draft capital to move into position to take Lawrence or who ever steps up as the best QB in the draft.It wouldn't happen but that certainly made me think why we dont see more long term planning like that with picks.
I've been suggesting this as an option as well. If the Vikings don't extend Cousins and also don't like this year's QB crop, then trading away either this year's first or this year's second for a better pick next year should absolutely be on the table.
Trading one pick away isn't "tanking". In this instance, it might be really smart.
Sadly, unless RS gets extended there's no way he'll do this though.
@"pattersaur" said:@"JimmyinSD" said: I heard an interesting take the other day. Roll the dice and trade away this years first rounder to perennial bottom feeder that is in rebuild mode (think the bengals) for their first next year and then hope that we have either the first overall for next year or at least the draft capital to move into position to take Lawrence or who ever steps up as the best QB in the draft.It wouldn't happen but that certainly made me think why we dont see more long term planning like that with picks.
I've been suggesting this as an option as well. If the Vikings don't extend Cousins and also don't like this year's QB crop, then trading away either this year's first or this year's second for a better pick next year should absolutely be on the table.
Trading one pick away isn't "tanking". In this instance, it might be really smart.Sadly, unless RS gets extended there's no way he'll do this though.
honestly though when the team is doing good is when they should be using that approach imo because they dont have to worry about selling tickets. I think they would likely still be safe to try it this year, but like you said, with Trader Rick on his last leg, that would probably require to big of stones.
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