Re-sign Anthony Harris?
I like Harris. I love interceptions. I think it's great to have a safety pair so highly ranked. AND - I bitched about Andrew Sendejo as the weak spot of our defense all the time he was here.
But...
Do you think our defense was significantly worse from 2015-17 with Sendejo starting instead of Harris? Do you think a safety next to Smith is worth +$10M per year? (Harris is valued at $13.8M by Spotrac FWIW.) Do you think we should spend that money on him instead of at OG, OT, DT, or CB?
I'll say a very clear "No" to all of the above. So unless Brzezinski can pull some magical deal where Harris costs the team less than $5M a year, I would sadly let him leave, and hold my nose and let Sendejo have the job (and spend a couple of day 3 picks on developmental safety prospects). Zimmer has repeatedly tried to convert college CBs like Jack Tochco and others to safety, so maybe he'll try Rhodes there.
The Zimmer defense depends on 1 do-it-all safety, Smith, and another guy who follows assignments. I personally felt that Sendejo blew it at times but never heard Zimmer call him out. He seems to be ok.
What the Zimmer defense does need are CBs, like 4-5 for any season, and that area is in trouble. Some, like my esteemed debate opponent FSUVike, have suggested we could fill the CB holes with a couple of veteran free agents. Well, I scanned the available UFA corners a bit, and think I have identified 2 who could be very good fits in the Zimmer system:
Mackensie Alexander
Trae Waynes
I know, Waynes hasn't lived up 11th-overall-pick expectations. But he was at least above-average from 2017-18. Alexander struggled his first 2 years here but has become a good nickel CB. And these guys both have a big credential: 4+ years each learning the Zimmer defense. Hasn't every corner, if not every defensive player, struggled to figure it out for their first couple years here? The system here isn't easy to learn, which makes Waynes and Alexander more valuable to the Vikings than any other team, and far more valuable than other FAs like Bradley Roby, who would probably have a bad first season here the way Captain Munnerlyn did.
Vikings might be able to sign both Waynes and Alexander for just a little more than Harris alone. Harris will get us a nice comp pick if he signs for a huge deal elsewhere. We might even bring him back in a couple years if it turns out he's not able to duplicate his 2019 season in, say, Cleveland.
@"FSUVike" said: Guess which team led the NFL through the regular season in Forced Incompletions? Wait for it....Your 2019 Minnesota Vikings! Number #1 with 73 Forced Incompletions.
Guess which team was 4th in Turnovers generated? Yep, Minnesota! And who tied for the lead in Interceptions in the regular season? Anthony Harris.
Harris and Smith do so much to erase the crap play from Rhodes, who was near Bottom 10 in the League, and Wayne's, who barely cracked the Top 50 at his position.
Harris and Smith. Not the other way around. Anthony has factually become the better Coverage Safety, which has allowed Zimmer to continue to keep Harrison around the LOS.
How about some more facts? The Vikings played Zone Shell on about 70% of their snaps this year. So much for the notion that Mike needs sticky Man Coverage CBs who can figure his uber-complex scheme that takes years to learn.
And it gets weirder. The Coverage Scheme they played in the most? Cover 2 at roughly 21% of their snaps. Wait, what? But I thought Zimmer hated Cover 2 and could get CBs from 711 to play that scheme.
Well, that was true. 5 years ago. He's constantly evolving. When misdirection and pick routes and bunch sets became the rage Mike wisely noted how many Defenses were switching to Zone to combat it. Zone is also usually more effective against the kiddie QBs proliferating the League now as they just don't have the experience to know where the natural holes are in Zones that guys like Brady, Brees and Rodgers know at a near-instinctual level from all their years picking it apart.
And guess what part 5? Minnesota allowed the 4th lowest Passer Rating in the League when playing Cover 2.
Having an Elite Eraser at the back of your Zone is what has helped make it so effective. Harris is so canny at figuring out which hole a QB is looking to exploit on which play.
If Harris leaves its Smith at the back of that Zone. I'm not sure he's as instinctive as Harris in anticipating where a QB will attack the Zone but even if he was he doesn't have the athleticism to do anything about any more. And Sendejo would just be running around like a headless chicken back there endangering everyone around him.
Look. Zimmer probably doesn't want to play that much Zone. I'm sure a lot of it has to do with his inability to trust Rhodes and Waynes in Man. But the fact is the Defense was 5th in Points Allowed. And 4th in Turnovers. It may Bend a lot more than in years past, but it wasn't Breaking.
Re-signing Harris has to be Priority #1 for the Defense. With him back and seeing as how the dreaded Zone that I've badmouthed so much has actually helped keep the Defense relevant, I see no reason why Minnesota can't add an aging vet or two and jettison Rhodes and Waynes, who are now 711 Corners. Be nice to keep Mac too. Keep Anthony Harris, draft a 3T, sign a CB or 2 and this Defense will likely be Top 5 in Points Allowed. Again. And as long as the Offense continues to improve that should be good enough.
I am not really sure if I'm really piggybacking or contradicting some of this. But although it is similar to Cover-2 in a few ways the Vikings sat in Cover-4 quite a bit. Same conceptual ideal but the Corners completely own the outer 4ths. I wouldn't necessarily assume they go back to the look next season. Why? It was probably an over-reaction and a "last resort" type of move to protect a struggling secondary.
Without getting too much into asset allocation, you aren't making much progress if you're playing bend but don't break defense with one of the highest paid units in the league. The scoring metrics looks fine but the finer details really are mediocre (1st downs allowed per game & 3rd down conversion rate).
@"Geoff Nichols" said:I agree. But does Rick Spielman know? Or does the whole organization just sit there waiting for Mike Zimmer to decide if he can bear to let go of any of his high priced pets?Without getting too much into asset allocation, you aren't making much progress if you're playing bend but don't break defense with one of the highest paid units in the league. The scoring metrics looks fine but the finer details really are mediocre (1st downs allowed per game & 3rd down conversion rate).
@"Geoff Nichols" said:@"FSUVike" said: Guess which team led the NFL through the regular season in Forced Incompletions? Wait for it....Your 2019 Minnesota Vikings! Number #1 with 73 Forced Incompletions.
Guess which team was 4th in Turnovers generated? Yep, Minnesota! And who tied for the lead in Interceptions in the regular season? Anthony Harris.
Harris and Smith do so much to erase the crap play from Rhodes, who was near Bottom 10 in the League, and Wayne's, who barely cracked the Top 50 at his position.
Harris and Smith. Not the other way around. Anthony has factually become the better Coverage Safety, which has allowed Zimmer to continue to keep Harrison around the LOS.
How about some more facts? The Vikings played Zone Shell on about 70% of their snaps this year. So much for the notion that Mike needs sticky Man Coverage CBs who can figure his uber-complex scheme that takes years to learn.
And it gets weirder. The Coverage Scheme they played in the most? Cover 2 at roughly 21% of their snaps. Wait, what? But I thought Zimmer hated Cover 2 and could get CBs from 711 to play that scheme.
Well, that was true. 5 years ago. He's constantly evolving. When misdirection and pick routes and bunch sets became the rage Mike wisely noted how many Defenses were switching to Zone to combat it. Zone is also usually more effective against the kiddie QBs proliferating the League now as they just don't have the experience to know where the natural holes are in Zones that guys like Brady, Brees and Rodgers know at a near-instinctual level from all their years picking it apart.
And guess what part 5? Minnesota allowed the 4th lowest Passer Rating in the League when playing Cover 2.
Having an Elite Eraser at the back of your Zone is what has helped make it so effective. Harris is so canny at figuring out which hole a QB is looking to exploit on which play.
If Harris leaves its Smith at the back of that Zone. I'm not sure he's as instinctive as Harris in anticipating where a QB will attack the Zone but even if he was he doesn't have the athleticism to do anything about any more. And Sendejo would just be running around like a headless chicken back there endangering everyone around him.
Look. Zimmer probably doesn't want to play that much Zone. I'm sure a lot of it has to do with his inability to trust Rhodes and Waynes in Man. But the fact is the Defense was 5th in Points Allowed. And 4th in Turnovers. It may Bend a lot more than in years past, but it wasn't Breaking.
Re-signing Harris has to be Priority #1 for the Defense. With him back and seeing as how the dreaded Zone that I've badmouthed so much has actually helped keep the Defense relevant, I see no reason why Minnesota can't add an aging vet or two and jettison Rhodes and Waynes, who are now 711 Corners. Be nice to keep Mac too. Keep Anthony Harris, draft a 3T, sign a CB or 2 and this Defense will likely be Top 5 in Points Allowed. Again. And as long as the Offense continues to improve that should be good enough.
I am not really sure if I'm really piggybacking or contradicting some of this. But although it is similar to Cover-2 in a few ways the Vikings sat in Cover-4 quite a bit. Same conceptual ideal but the Corners completely own the outer 4ths. I wouldn't necessarily assume they go back to the look next season. Why? It was probably an over-reaction and a "last resort" type of move to protect a struggling secondary.Without getting too much into asset allocation, you aren't making much progress if you're playing bend but don't break defense with one of the highest paid units in the league. The scoring metrics looks fine but the finer details really are mediocre (1st downs allowed per game & 3rd down conversion rate).
But will they still be one of the highest paid units without Griff, Joseph, Rhodes and Waynes?All those draft picks and contracts and it was still a Unit better known for not allowing a lot of points and getting off the field on 3rd downs. It was never an Elite Defense generating tons of 3 & Outs and Turnovers.
Well, they still don't get 3 & Outs at a rate commensurate with the investment but they are getting the Tornovers and they still aren't giving up a lot of points. So why invest a lot back into it? You keep Harris because he's a big part of the uptick in TOs but you let the rest walk and replace with lower tier FAs, draft picks and guys already on the roster
Cover 4 covered up near worst in the entire League play from Xavier and barely average play from Trae. You can't do much worse than them, which is shocking but true. If Zimmer gets a 1st or 2nd Round CB he's going to want to go back to playing more Man but the kid will need at least a year or two to get up to speed so what's the point? Zimmer could be gone by then.
So get Ryan or Roby to pair with Hughes and Boyd and a 4th Round pick. Stay in Cover 4 and count on the pass rush plus the ballhawking skills of Harris, Smith, Kendricks, Hunter and Ogdenigo and focus the early Round Draft Picks on the O-Line and 3T.
My biggest fear is Mehkti Becton sitting at 25 and Zimmer pounds the table for Henderson instead. He's going to be a pretty good Corner one day, but he won't magically turn the Defense into something Elite. Which it won't need to be if the Offense takes the next step under Gary.
RELATED:
@"BarrNone55" said:We'll see what the combine holds but I think the franchise tag is going to be a very real possibility for Harris.The Broncos have yet to open "serious contract talks" with impending free agent S Justin Simmons.Broncos GM John Elway has already said he wants to re-sign Simmons, but there's not been any progress to this point. That should change when the sides meet at the Combine later this month. Simmons is likely going to ask for more than the four-year, $58.4 million contract ($14.6M annually) Chicago gave to Eddie Jackson in January. The Broncos haven't ruled out franchising Simmons, which would pay him $11.5 million in 2020.SOURCE: 9News Denver
https://thevikingage.com/2020/02/13/assessing-value-minnesota-vikings-harris/
Can you imagine the fucking dumpster fire happening at the back end of the Secondary if Sendejo is out there instead of Harris? He covers so much ground and masks so many deficiencies back there that allows Harry to stay closer to the LOS.
With him gone Mike will need to either find a true Centerfielder (McKinney in the 1st) or keep Smith back there and lose one of his most versatile weapons.
Give me Ant Man ™ and Dirty Harry and a couple 7/11 CBs if it comes to it...Hughes, if he's not a hit away from being a quadriplegic, Mac, Boyd, and Hill should be plenty for Zim to work with...
Right? The 9ers have Old Man Sherman and what, exactly at Corner? But they do have two very good, versatile Safeties in Ward and Tartt. And LBs that can cover. And a killer pass rush.
I think Watts can give us some pressure up the middle. I have zero concerns coming off the edge, but we need a 3T to get the QB off the spot. MLB who covers better than just about anyone at the position.
As scary as it sounds without XR, Waynes or MacAlex back there, I'd still prioritize a 3t over a cb--- if there was one available who can truly disrupt.
Drafting 24 and this cap situation? Feels a bit purgatory - ish.
@"FSUVike" said: Right? The 9ers have Old Man Sherman and what, exactly at Corner? But they do have two very good, versatile Safeties in Ward and Tartt. And LBs that can cover. And a killer pass rush.Doesn't Sherman play zone 98% of the time? That is a bit different than what Zimmer asks for in his defense. I think Sherman would get toasted in this offense.
@"Canthony" said:Zimmer is using a lot more zone himself these days, rule changes that emphasize not allowing as much (any) contact after 5 yards has really handcuffed Zimmers aggressive man approach.@"FSUVike" said: Right? The 9ers have Old Man Sherman and what, exactly at Corner? But they do have two very good, versatile Safeties in Ward and Tartt. And LBs that can cover. And a killer pass rush. Doesn't Sherman play zone 98% of the time? That is a bit different than what Zimmer asks for in his defense. I think Sherman would get toasted in this offense.
@"JimmyinSD" said:I think that Waynes is pretty much a zone corner as well. I thought it was due to Rhodes' limitations last couple years and Waynes inability to cover man. It will be interesting to see what he goes to with new starting CBs that can cover man and play press.@"Canthony" said:Zimmer is using a lot more zone himself these days, rule changes that emphasize not allowing as much (any) contact after 5 yards has really handcuffed Zimmers aggressive man approach.@"FSUVike" said: Right? The 9ers have Old Man Sherman and what, exactly at Corner? But they do have two very good, versatile Safeties in Ward and Tartt. And LBs that can cover. And a killer pass rush. Doesn't Sherman play zone 98% of the time? That is a bit different than what Zimmer asks for in his defense. I think Sherman would get toasted in this offense.
@"Canthony" said:I at times wondered this year about Rhodes smarts and his ability to play multiple schemes. He excelled when he was asked to just man up and be physical, yes his skills have dropped off, but he seems to be confused a lot in the zone looks that Zimmer was trying to employ last year. Does he have the mental acumen to keep his roles straight in more complex situations? I am not saying the dude is a post, just wondering if he is struggling with the scheme and that is making him play slower overall and making his physical limitation look worse than they are.@"JimmyinSD" said:I think that Waynes is pretty much a zone corner as well. I thought it was due to Rhodes' limitations last couple years and Waynes inability to cover man. It will be interesting to see what he goes to with new starting CBs that can cover man and play press.@"Canthony" said:Zimmer is using a lot more zone himself these days, rule changes that emphasize not allowing as much (any) contact after 5 yards has really handcuffed Zimmers aggressive man approach.@"FSUVike" said: Right? The 9ers have Old Man Sherman and what, exactly at Corner? But they do have two very good, versatile Safeties in Ward and Tartt. And LBs that can cover. And a killer pass rush. Doesn't Sherman play zone 98% of the time? That is a bit different than what Zimmer asks for in his defense. I think Sherman would get toasted in this offense.
@"JimmyinSD" said:That could very well be. He could be trying to think too much and that would make you play slower for sure. I also think his hamstring was far worse than what we were led on to believe. He still struggled with it last year.@"Canthony" said:I at times wondered this year about Rhodes smarts and his ability to play multiple schemes. He excelled when he was asked to just man up and be physical, yes his skills have dropped off, but he seems to be confused a lot in the zone looks that Zimmer was trying to employ last year. Does he have the mental acumen to keep his roles straight in more complex situations? I am not saying the dude is a post, just wondering if he is struggling with the scheme and that is making him play slower overall and making his physical limitation look worse than they are.@"JimmyinSD" said:I think that Waynes is pretty much a zone corner as well. I thought it was due to Rhodes' limitations last couple years and Waynes inability to cover man. It will be interesting to see what he goes to with new starting CBs that can cover man and play press.@"Canthony" said:Zimmer is using a lot more zone himself these days, rule changes that emphasize not allowing as much (any) contact after 5 yards has really handcuffed Zimmers aggressive man approach.@"FSUVike" said: Right? The 9ers have Old Man Sherman and what, exactly at Corner? But they do have two very good, versatile Safeties in Ward and Tartt. And LBs that can cover. And a killer pass rush. Doesn't Sherman play zone 98% of the time? That is a bit different than what Zimmer asks for in his defense. I think Sherman would get toasted in this offense.
@"Canthony" said:i think he sometimes has convenient injuries. if he knows the camera is on him for the wrong reasons he often comes up limping... but as soon as he is able to make a play he is hopping and moving like nothing is bothering him. kind of like the guy that always cramped up or tweaked something right before conditioning at the end of practices, but was all smiles in the locker room.@"JimmyinSD" said:That could very well be. He could be trying to think too much and that would make you play slower for sure. I also think his hamstring was far worse than what we were led on to believe. He still struggled with it last year.@"Canthony" said:I at times wondered this year about Rhodes smarts and his ability to play multiple schemes. He excelled when he was asked to just man up and be physical, yes his skills have dropped off, but he seems to be confused a lot in the zone looks that Zimmer was trying to employ last year. Does he have the mental acumen to keep his roles straight in more complex situations? I am not saying the dude is a post, just wondering if he is struggling with the scheme and that is making him play slower overall and making his physical limitation look worse than they are.@"JimmyinSD" said:I think that Waynes is pretty much a zone corner as well. I thought it was due to Rhodes' limitations last couple years and Waynes inability to cover man. It will be interesting to see what he goes to with new starting CBs that can cover man and play press.@"Canthony" said:Zimmer is using a lot more zone himself these days, rule changes that emphasize not allowing as much (any) contact after 5 yards has really handcuffed Zimmers aggressive man approach.@"FSUVike" said: Right? The 9ers have Old Man Sherman and what, exactly at Corner? But they do have two very good, versatile Safeties in Ward and Tartt. And LBs that can cover. And a killer pass rush. Doesn't Sherman play zone 98% of the time? That is a bit different than what Zimmer asks for in his defense. I think Sherman would get toasted in this offense.
@"JimmyinSD" said:I am a big FSU fan and watched a lot of Rhodes. He didn't play a ton of zone though. He just wasn't that type of player. Coming in I believe he was a big press guy. I thought that is where he played his best.@"Canthony" said:i think he sometimes has convenient injuries. if he knows the camera is on him for the wrong reasons he often comes up limping... but as soon as he is able to make a play he is hopping and moving like nothing is bothering him. kind of like the guy that always cramped up or tweaked something right before conditioning at the end of practices, but was all smiles in the locker room.@"JimmyinSD" said:That could very well be. He could be trying to think too much and that would make you play slower for sure. I also think his hamstring was far worse than what we were led on to believe. He still struggled with it last year.@"Canthony" said:I at times wondered this year about Rhodes smarts and his ability to play multiple schemes. He excelled when he was asked to just man up and be physical, yes his skills have dropped off, but he seems to be confused a lot in the zone looks that Zimmer was trying to employ last year. Does he have the mental acumen to keep his roles straight in more complex situations? I am not saying the dude is a post, just wondering if he is struggling with the scheme and that is making him play slower overall and making his physical limitation look worse than they are.@"JimmyinSD" said:I think that Waynes is pretty much a zone corner as well. I thought it was due to Rhodes' limitations last couple years and Waynes inability to cover man. It will be interesting to see what he goes to with new starting CBs that can cover man and play press.@"Canthony" said:Zimmer is using a lot more zone himself these days, rule changes that emphasize not allowing as much (any) contact after 5 yards has really handcuffed Zimmers aggressive man approach.@"FSUVike" said: Right? The 9ers have Old Man Sherman and what, exactly at Corner? But they do have two very good, versatile Safeties in Ward and Tartt. And LBs that can cover. And a killer pass rush. Doesn't Sherman play zone 98% of the time? That is a bit different than what Zimmer asks for in his defense. I think Sherman would get toasted in this offense.
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