Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ Jor-El said:
Maybe he will alter his approach, but I think he has other goals that are not compatible with "going up to get his guy". I think he is really loathe to give up 2 picks to get 1, or any combination of that type. Spielman wants to turn 1 pick into 2 or more, instead. Unless that changes, he is NEVER going to get in front of a run on a position, because he's going to think he can find some diamond that the rest of the league doesn't know about, and that 6th-rounder will be just as good as the 2nd-rounder he passed up.
If I'm wrong, why does he openly speak, year after year, about the goal of having 10 draft picks? And it's not just idle talk, he chases that number! Whether the idea is sound or not, why would he advertise such an aspiration to the rest of the league?? Doesn't that just tell everyone, "Spielman won't move up, and you can get his higher picks if you tempt him with some low-round candy"??
It also doesn't help that Zimmer is very obviously campaigning for added defensive players at every opportunity.
My guess: Spielman thought he would get someone at 30, but the guy went earlier. (BTW I am not sure it was an offensive lineman, but we won't know. As the draft unfolded, I figured he was watching Calvin Ridley slide and hoping to catch him...) Then he started taking calls to trade down, but apparently no calls came when they were on the clock (because the traders were looking for Taven Bryan perhaps?) Then he was stuck with no prized prospect, no offers, and Zimmer was pounding the table for Hughes, so...
As I've said elsewhere, I was - still am - not thrilled about Hughes. I just think he is too like players who could have been picked later - like DJ Reed, the undersized slot corner who is a great return man that the 49ers picked near the top of round 5. (Go check Reed's scouting report..is Hughes 3+ rounds better??) But, there are no Dimitrius Underwood picks here, so the chances are fair that Spielman won't get burned too badly for this draft. Hughes will probably be a fair contributor, O'Neill might develop into a functional OL in a couple years...there is no firing squad needed about this draft. I bet a lot of teams drafted worse! But Spielman probably won't change his approach, either.
I think this is a little misleading. Do the Vikings want to accumulate picks? Yes. Are they going to put that ahead of finding the best talent? No. It ends up working out both ways and evens out over time.
The number 1 way the Vikings have accumulated picks is by trading down in the 3rd-7th to gain picks in the 5th-7th that can be ST contributors and eventual starters. In the rare instances they've traded down in the first its been one spot to take advantage of a draft picks value and have ended up with the same player they would have taken originally (Matt Kalil / Anthony Barr). In those years they've turned right around and used those more valuable assets to move up from the 2nd and into the back end of the 1st for 5th round option years (Harrison Smith/ Teddy Bridgewater). So they aren't afraid to go up and get their guys to not only secure the additional year of control, but to start a run. Look at the safeties after Smith. Aside from financial control they moved up two times in 2017 to get Dalvin Cook in the 2nd round and Pat Elflein in the 3rd. Instead of sitting back they went to get the guys they felt more comfortable with.
From the other side do they always trade out of good player in the middle rounds? In 2016 they traded down twice to get themselves Danielle Hunter. Although raw at the time that has worked out well compared to players taken around their original pick prior to trades. The thing to remember is that when you trade down an accumulate late round picks there is statistically going to be more misses than hits. You can easily use that against someone but if the hit rates in rounds 4-7 is 30% (example) and you have 10 picks in those rounds you'll end up with 3 players that stick most years and 7 that won't. Those are the odds for all teams not just the Vikings. So in a vacuum 7 players may end up not making the team, so terrible. But league wide they kept 3 players on the roster while other teams kept 1. So in the end they actually built more depth.
This isn't meant to suggest that Spielman has taken full advantage of draft positions. But the philosophy works well if you can hit on your picks in rounds 1-3 regardless of who you are.
I think the strategy rests on the idea that the vast majority of successful NFL players come from the first three rounds. Round 4 is a control. But in rounds 5, 6 and 7, you're either taking special teams players or taking shots on players you don't want to bid for after the draft, and it makes very little difference what round you take them in, so why not get as many of those "shots" as you can. In fact, PFR did a study of 10 years of draft results, and it found that the success rate at OL and DL is exactly the same between rounds 5 and 6. And 6th round LBs actually hit at a higher rate then their 5th round counterparts.
so use the current years 4th to get a 3rd rounder in next years draft, and trade down from the 5th in the current years draft for additional 6th and 7th rounders in the current year? =)
I got this shit down cold.
Jimmy, I'd say that's a winning strategy. And if you do it every year, you'll always have two 3rds. 3rds are really valuable picks when it comes to maneuvering at the top of the draft. Pretty sure the Vikings felt pretty strait-jacketed in their ability to maneuver at the top of the draft because they didn't have that 4th.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ Jor-El said:
Maybe he will alter his approach, but I think he has other goals that are not compatible with "going up to get his guy". I think he is really loathe to give up 2 picks to get 1, or any combination of that type. Spielman wants to turn 1 pick into 2 or more, instead. Unless that changes, he is NEVER going to get in front of a run on a position, because he's going to think he can find some diamond that the rest of the league doesn't know about, and that 6th-rounder will be just as good as the 2nd-rounder he passed up.
If I'm wrong, why does he openly speak, year after year, about the goal of having 10 draft picks? And it's not just idle talk, he chases that number! Whether the idea is sound or not, why would he advertise such an aspiration to the rest of the league?? Doesn't that just tell everyone, "Spielman won't move up, and you can get his higher picks if you tempt him with some low-round candy"??
It also doesn't help that Zimmer is very obviously campaigning for added defensive players at every opportunity.
My guess: Spielman thought he would get someone at 30, but the guy went earlier. (BTW I am not sure it was an offensive lineman, but we won't know. As the draft unfolded, I figured he was watching Calvin Ridley slide and hoping to catch him...) Then he started taking calls to trade down, but apparently no calls came when they were on the clock (because the traders were looking for Taven Bryan perhaps?) Then he was stuck with no prized prospect, no offers, and Zimmer was pounding the table for Hughes, so...
As I've said elsewhere, I was - still am - not thrilled about Hughes. I just think he is too like players who could have been picked later - like DJ Reed, the undersized slot corner who is a great return man that the 49ers picked near the top of round 5. (Go check Reed's scouting report..is Hughes 3+ rounds better??) But, there are no Dimitrius Underwood picks here, so the chances are fair that Spielman won't get burned too badly for this draft. Hughes will probably be a fair contributor, O'Neill might develop into a functional OL in a couple years...there is no firing squad needed about this draft. I bet a lot of teams drafted worse! But Spielman probably won't change his approach, either.
I think this is a little misleading. Do the Vikings want to accumulate picks? Yes. Are they going to put that ahead of finding the best talent? No. It ends up working out both ways and evens out over time.
The number 1 way the Vikings have accumulated picks is by trading down in the 3rd-7th to gain picks in the 5th-7th that can be ST contributors and eventual starters. In the rare instances they've traded down in the first its been one spot to take advantage of a draft picks value and have ended up with the same player they would have taken originally (Matt Kalil / Anthony Barr). In those years they've turned right around and used those more valuable assets to move up from the 2nd and into the back end of the 1st for 5th round option years (Harrison Smith/ Teddy Bridgewater). So they aren't afraid to go up and get their guys to not only secure the additional year of control, but to start a run. Look at the safeties after Smith. Aside from financial control they moved up two times in 2017 to get Dalvin Cook in the 2nd round and Pat Elflein in the 3rd. Instead of sitting back they went to get the guys they felt more comfortable with.
From the other side do they always trade out of good player in the middle rounds? In 2016 they traded down twice to get themselves Danielle Hunter. Although raw at the time that has worked out well compared to players taken around their original pick prior to trades. The thing to remember is that when you trade down an accumulate late round picks there is statistically going to be more misses than hits. You can easily use that against someone but if the hit rates in rounds 4-7 is 30% (example) and you have 10 picks in those rounds you'll end up with 3 players that stick most years and 7 that won't. Those are the odds for all teams not just the Vikings. So in a vacuum 7 players may end up not making the team, so terrible. But league wide they kept 3 players on the roster while other teams kept 1. So in the end they actually built more depth.
This isn't meant to suggest that Spielman has taken full advantage of draft positions. But the philosophy works well if you can hit on your picks in rounds 1-3 regardless of who you are.
I think the strategy rests on the idea that the vast majority of successful NFL players come from the first three rounds. Round 4 is a control. But in rounds 5, 6 and 7, you're either taking special teams players or taking shots on players you don't want to bid for after the draft, and it makes very little difference what round you take them in, so why not get as many of those "shots" as you can. In fact, PFR did a study of 10 years of draft results, and it found that the success rate at OL and DL is exactly the same between rounds 5 and 6. And 6th round LBs actually hit at a higher rate then their 5th round counterparts.
so use the current years 4th to get a 3rd rounder in next years draft, and trade down from the 5th in the current years draft for additional 6th and 7th rounders in the current year? =)
I got this shit down cold.
Jimmy, I'd say that's a winning strategy. And if you do it every year, you'll always have two 3rds. 3rds are really valuable picks when it comes to maneuvering at the top of the draft. Pretty sure the Vikings felt pretty strait-jacketed in their ability to maneuver at the top of the draft because they didn't have that 4th.
however our DE room would be quite a bit weaker currently if we didnt use those 4ths on BRob and EV. I do like the notion of having 2 - 3rd rounders every year, but its been damn fun watching our 4th rounders play the last decade.
Quote: @Wetlander said:
succinct and to the point!
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
I appreciate it when some doesn't try to bullshit me.
Quote: @Scoog said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
I appreciate it when some doesn't try to bullshit me.
ohhh buddy, you are in the wrong place if this is true. B)
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