Quote: @Norse said:
@ TBro said:
Assuming Keenum could get a FA deal worth 18-20 million over 5 years, using the Franchise Tag is a low risk move for us because we are only obligated for 1 year. Is it it paying him more than he is worth? Sure, but we have the cap space and wouldn't have to commit to a multi year deal if Case can't repeat his level of play from this year. Bradford's $18 million cap hit comes off the books assuming we don't resign him so that's not much of an increase when you add the $2 million we paid Case. I would prefer to use the Transition Tag on Case, but you are still matching another Team's contract that will be a multi-year deal and doesn't leave you with the same flexibility to cut bait if he regresses.
If we upgraded the OL through FA and the Draft this upcoming season. And Cook was back running strong...why would Case regress?
Hopefully he woudn't, but nobody knows if he can sustain what he did this year because he hasn't proven that he can consistently perform at a high level over his career. I agree with you though that an improved offensive line and a healthy Cook will go a long way to help him maintain his level of play. How will he mesh with a new coordinator? Lots of questions to be answered. I was just mentioning that the Franchise Tag would give you that flexibility if they are not convinced Case can be a long term solution. It allows you to kick that can down the road another year to evaluate his performance with a full offseason program as the Starter and new OC running the offense.
Our QB situation is unlike anything I have ever seen. We have 3 QB's that all have question marks that will impact their ability to secure long term deals and guaranteed starter roles. Teams will be hesitant with Case because he hasn't proven that he can consistently win year after year, and the other two have major questions regarding the health of their knees which puts teams in a high risk position when investing in those two as your starters. Plus,
we are hiring an new OC. If they don't pick Stefanski, that could throw all of this speculation in a completely
different direction about who they want as their QB. It might not be any of these three.
I like Case the most out of all three of our QB's and would try to get a deal done in the $15-$18 million range. It's unfortunate for him, but I think he cost himself some money with the way the Eagles game played out. I want to bring back Teddy, but he wants to be guaranteed the starting job and I don't think the Vikings are willing to take that risk with him.
Quote: @TBro said:
@ Jamie Demaree said:
I didnt realize cousins was due to make 34 million. But with Brady, Rogers, Big Ben all making 20-22 million a year and Stafford making 27 there is no way Cousins would get that, unless somebody grossly over paid. The projected franchise tag for QB is 23.5 million. When looking at the best in game currently making in that range does anybody think Case Keenum is worth that amount. As good a year as he had for the Vikings it is the only good season he has had. Will he regress back to the old Keenum or is this a turning point in his career ? That is my worry. If the Vikings had Case on the roster for 3 seasons and he improved the first two and then put together the season he had this year then yes it would give reason to believe he may be the future but with just one good season under his belt I cringe at giving him that kind of money. Scott Mitchell had a great season once also.
Assuming Keenum could get a FA deal worth 18-20 million over 5 years, using the Franchise Tag is a low risk move for us because we are only obligated for 1 year. Is it it paying him more than he is worth? Sure, but we have the cap space and wouldn't have to commit to a multi year deal if Case can't repeat his level of play from this year. Bradford's $18 million cap hit comes off the books assuming we don't resign him so that's not much of an increase when you add the $2 million we paid Case. I would prefer to use the Transition Tag on Case, but you are still matching another Team's contract that will be a multi-year deal and doesn't leave you with the same flexibility to cut bait if he regresses.
Using the transition tag is dangerous. I think it comes down to either you're committed to Case and franchise him or you're not and you let him walk. You save roughly $2M using the transition tag but put yourself in a scenario where another team is going to give Case guarantees throughout the deal and language that would potentially hurt the Vikings down the road if they were to move in a different direction. Knowing the Vikings are on the other side of the transition tag you may also see a team load the contract in the 2nd year when some of the Vikings new contracts would begin. Basically, paying $2M to just franchise him is less risky. Also, if you transition tag Case and let him walk you don't receive a compensatory pick.
Quote: @Norse said:
If we upgraded the OL through FA and the Draft this upcoming season. And Cook was back running strong...why would Case regress?
For one, Shurmur is gone and possibly even Stefanski if he
goes to the Giants after being out of the running for OC here. Secondly, there’s no guarantee that the OLine
will be upgraded or that Cook will be at full form. We’ll likely lose Berger and Easton/Elflein
will be coming off late season broken bones.
Will they be up to full strength or will they have a down year as they
get back to health? Thirdly, it’s not a
given that Thielen/Diggs/Rudolph will all remain healthy throughout next
year. They helped him out a lot. Also what happens if Keenum gets dinged up
and his mobility drops 10-20%?
This year he was dramatically under his historical int%
average. We all saw several balls that
were thrown up and not turned into ints.
If you prorate his average and worst seasons (2016), the difference is somewhere
5-9 more ints per season than he had this year.
If Case throws enough interceptions to lose us a game or two, things
look a lot different. All of a sudden we’re
playing a wild card game instead of having a bye. Case’s miracle plays look more risky to
everyone and not just those that are critical. His average is his average for a reason. You need to have good, probable reasons to
assume that this deviation from his average is the new norm, rather than an
outlier. I think most of the factors
that we are looking at are questionable, where we are hoping it continues
rather than stuff we can count on.
Quote: @medaille said:
@ Norse said:
If we upgraded the OL through FA and the Draft this upcoming season. And Cook was back running strong...why would Case regress?
For one, Shurmur is gone and possibly even Stefanski if he
goes to the Giants after being out of the running for OC here. Secondly, there’s no guarantee that the OLine
will be upgraded or that Cook will be at full form. We’ll likely lose Berger and Easton/Elflein
will be coming off late season broken bones.
Will they be up to full strength or will they have a down year as they
get back to health? Thirdly, it’s not a
given that Thielen/Diggs/Rudolph will all remain healthy throughout next
year. They helped him out a lot. Also what happens if Keenum gets dinged up
and his mobility drops 10-20%?
This year he was dramatically under his historical int%
average. We all saw several balls that
were thrown up and not turned into ints.
If you prorate his average and worst seasons (2016), the difference is somewhere
5-9 more ints per season than he had this year.
If Case throws enough interceptions to lose us a game or two, things
look a lot different. All of a sudden we’re
playing a wild card game instead of having a bye. Case’s miracle plays look more risky to
everyone and not just those that are critical. His average is his average for a reason. You need to have good, probable reasons to
assume that this deviation from his average is the new norm, rather than an
outlier. I think most of the factors
that we are looking at are questionable, where we are hoping it continues
rather than stuff we can count on.
Medaille,
Where did you see that Stefanski is out of the running for the OC job? Geoff said he was the leading candidate from his sources and everything I have seen still shows him as one of the finalists with Bevell, Sean Ryan(Texans), and Dan Campbell(Saints).
Quote: @medaille said:
@ Norse said:
If we upgraded the OL through FA and the Draft this upcoming season. And Cook was back running strong...why would Case regress?
For one, Shurmur is gone and possibly even Stefanski if he
goes to the Giants after being out of the running for OC here. Secondly, there’s no guarantee that the OLine
will be upgraded or that Cook will be at full form. We’ll likely lose Berger and Easton/Elflein
will be coming off late season broken bones.
Will they be up to full strength or will they have a down year as they
get back to health? Thirdly, it’s not a
given that Thielen/Diggs/Rudolph will all remain healthy throughout next
year. They helped him out a lot. Also what happens if Keenum gets dinged up
and his mobility drops 10-20%?
This year he was dramatically under his historical int%
average. We all saw several balls that
were thrown up and not turned into ints.
If you prorate his average and worst seasons (2016), the difference is somewhere
5-9 more ints per season than he had this year.
If Case throws enough interceptions to lose us a game or two, things
look a lot different. All of a sudden we’re
playing a wild card game instead of having a bye. Case’s miracle plays look more risky to
everyone and not just those that are critical. His average is his average for a reason. You need to have good, probable reasons to
assume that this deviation from his average is the new norm, rather than an
outlier. I think most of the factors
that we are looking at are questionable, where we are hoping it continues
rather than stuff we can count on.
Your think with all them things going wrong that it wouldn't effect another QB...only Keenum??
I would hope that we never have a repeat of 2016.
I have to disagree with you on int's
2013 62014 02015 12016 11 Rams2017 7
And damm don't you just love it when balls get throwed up and don't turn into int's. :p
I don't understand what your saying here.
His average is his average for a reason. You need to have good, probable reasons to assume that this deviation from his average is the new norm, rather than an outlier.
Quote: @TBro said:
@ medaille said:
@ Norse said:
If we upgraded the OL through FA and the Draft this upcoming season. And Cook was back running strong...why would Case regress?
For one, Shurmur is gone and possibly even Stefanski if he
goes to the Giants after being out of the running for OC here. Secondly, there’s no guarantee that the OLine
will be upgraded or that Cook will be at full form. We’ll likely lose Berger and Easton/Elflein
will be coming off late season broken bones.
Will they be up to full strength or will they have a down year as they
get back to health? Thirdly, it’s not a
given that Thielen/Diggs/Rudolph will all remain healthy throughout next
year. They helped him out a lot. Also what happens if Keenum gets dinged up
and his mobility drops 10-20%?
This year he was dramatically under his historical int%
average. We all saw several balls that
were thrown up and not turned into ints.
If you prorate his average and worst seasons (2016), the difference is somewhere
5-9 more ints per season than he had this year.
If Case throws enough interceptions to lose us a game or two, things
look a lot different. All of a sudden we’re
playing a wild card game instead of having a bye. Case’s miracle plays look more risky to
everyone and not just those that are critical. His average is his average for a reason. You need to have good, probable reasons to
assume that this deviation from his average is the new norm, rather than an
outlier. I think most of the factors
that we are looking at are questionable, where we are hoping it continues
rather than stuff we can count on.
Medaille,
Where did you see that Stefanski is out of the running for the OC job? Geoff said he was the leading candidate from his sources and everything I have seen still shows him as one of the finalists with Bevell, Sean Ryan(Texans), and Dan Campbell(Saints).
I didn't mean it to sound that way. There's just rumors out there that if we pick someone else as an OC, that Shurmur might poach him off the Vikings to be his OC, in which case there'd be less continuity on offense, scheme-wise and QB Coach-wise.
Quote: @Norse said:
@ medaille said:
...
Your think with all them things going wrong that it wouldn't effect another QB...only Keenum??
I would hope that we never have a repeat of 2016.
I have to disagree with you on int's
2013 62014 02015 12016 11 Rams2017 7
And damm don't you just love it when balls get throwed up and don't turn into int's. :p
There's not much to disagree with. Stats are
Stats. He had low total ints because he didn't play a lot
and low total numbers of attempts. You can add his 2015 and 2016 seasons
together and it’s less total attempts than this past year. That’s why I referenced the int% stat.
Everyone loves winning the lottery, no one loves losing the lottery. You just have to decide if the odds are in your favor or if you're praying for a good result despite of the odds.
Quote: @Norse said:
I don't understand what your saying here.
His average is his average for a reason. You need to have good, probable reasons to assume that this deviation from his average is the new norm, rather than an outlier.
This is an exaggeration:
If your girlfriend cheated on multiple guys
before she dated you, but stayed faithful to you for the 6 months you've been dating. Is she a changed woman or is she going to start
cheating on you at some point in time. Can you trust her
enough to marry her?
Quote: @medaille said:
@ TBro said:
@ medaille said:
@ Norse said:
If we upgraded the OL through FA and the Draft this upcoming season. And Cook was back running strong...why would Case regress?
For one, Shurmur is gone and possibly even Stefanski if he
goes to the Giants after being out of the running for OC here. Secondly, there’s no guarantee that the OLine
will be upgraded or that Cook will be at full form. We’ll likely lose Berger and Easton/Elflein
will be coming off late season broken bones.
Will they be up to full strength or will they have a down year as they
get back to health? Thirdly, it’s not a
given that Thielen/Diggs/Rudolph will all remain healthy throughout next
year. They helped him out a lot. Also what happens if Keenum gets dinged up
and his mobility drops 10-20%?
This year he was dramatically under his historical int%
average. We all saw several balls that
were thrown up and not turned into ints.
If you prorate his average and worst seasons (2016), the difference is somewhere
5-9 more ints per season than he had this year.
If Case throws enough interceptions to lose us a game or two, things
look a lot different. All of a sudden we’re
playing a wild card game instead of having a bye. Case’s miracle plays look more risky to
everyone and not just those that are critical. His average is his average for a reason. You need to have good, probable reasons to
assume that this deviation from his average is the new norm, rather than an
outlier. I think most of the factors
that we are looking at are questionable, where we are hoping it continues
rather than stuff we can count on.
Medaille,
Where did you see that Stefanski is out of the running for the OC job? Geoff said he was the leading candidate from his sources and everything I have seen still shows him as one of the finalists with Bevell, Sean Ryan(Texans), and Dan Campbell(Saints).
I didn't mean it to sound that way. There's just rumors out there that if we pick someone else as an OC, that Shurmur might poach him off the Vikings to be his OC, in which case there'd be less continuity on offense, scheme-wise and QB Coach-wise.
No worries. KFAN's Barreiro had Andy Benoit on from MMQB today on Radio Row at MOA. Had a great discussion about the Eagles Game and the Vikings QB and OC situation. He said that Keenum absolutely loves Stefanski and wants him to be the OC. Benoit also praised Stafanski and acted like he would be surprised if he didn't get it. He also ranked the 3 QB options inside, and the options outside. He said that Cousins would not do anything to move the meter for this offense to justify his asking price. He also said that Alex Smith would be even worse than Cousins. On the Vikings QB's he had this to say: Bradford has the most talent but his durability can't be trusted and that the Vikings would be stupid to make him the starter again. Keenum was his top choice due to his ability to extend plays and improvise. Said he made Pat Shurmur look good. He put Teddy last citing his lack of arm strength and average overall talent. He didn't even mention Teddy's knee as a factor. Just focused on him being a very average QB option for the Vikings. I thought it was interesting to listen to an outsiders perspective.
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