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OK....I know the league gives few chances in this "What have you done for me lately" league.
but I would like some perspectives from my friends here.
1. Can a quarterback improve season after season to become a Franchise type player?
I'm thinking like the strides Bortles has made of late...
2. How long is a franchise going to give a QB that they think can improve before kicked to the curb?
3. If a QB has a great season....Followed by bad one...is the next one basically the last hurrah...
or will a team endure beyond two seasons of poor play?
My thoughts...
1. I'm thinking most clubs won't wait for a QB to improve.
They will go a different direction and that guy becomes a backup.
2. if you're drafted high...2-3 years on average to prove you belong,
otherwise...you're selling insurance.
3. It seems like in the '70s and '80s there was more patience...
QBs had a bad season once in a while, but I don't remember the turnaround of QBs like nowadays...
so if Carr's play diminishes AGAIN next year.....is he relegated to a backup role?
I mean...a lot of these guys are 23 years old....seriously,
I don't even think I fully grasped my job until I'd been at it for three or fours years
....thoughts?
I think pedigree plays a big part. If you draft a guy in the first round and he has all of the characteristics you're looking for (experience, size, arm talent, composure, leadership), that guy is going to get a lot more time than someone without those characteristics.
To make matters even more difficult, there are so many factors that contribute to (or disguise) a QB's true ability. Health, stability, supporting cast.
Sam Bradford is the perfect example. #1 overall pick with everything you want. But you put him on a terrible team, he gets hurt a couple times, and everyone thinks he's a bust. But you could see big time talent in flashes. Rick gambled on that, and whether he won or not still remains to be seen. Yeah, he got hurt AGAIN, and that is part of the equation, but I don't think there's any more doubt that with the right team around him, he could still be the elite QB he was drafted to be.
I've said it a million times, but it's so important to factor in supporting cast, whether you're talking about Sam, Teddy, Case, Carr...I think there are maybe only 1 or 2 QBs in the NFL whose ability transcends supporting cast. But even among the 2nd tier QBs, you can look at the careers of Ben, Rivers, Eli, Flacco, Ryan and you can pretty much match up their ups and downs with the ups and downs of their supporting cast.
i think the issue with QBs (and all players really) when comparing todays player to players of the past is their grooming. In the past QBs were prepared in college to be pro QBs, and then when they were drafted they were set behind a veteran for a year or two so that they can polish those pro skills and learn to prepare like a pro. not the case anymore. with the monster rookie deals and free agency, these teams need to get their prized QBs on the field as quickly as they can and push them to succeed as soon as possible or considering the only thing shorter than a players career is a losing coaches... they will be gone or the people that believed in them will be.
IMO we need to get back to a point where the players that are coming into the league are better prepared for the NFL game, if college wont do it, IMO the league should look at creating a developmental league that not only builds better players... but better coaches as well.
I do think that QBs can improve in many areas... but I don't know whether or not they can "suddenly" grow stronger arms. That's why teams take chances on "physical specimens", with the hope that they can fix the other issues. That doesn't always (often?) work... but if you take a guy like Teddy or Case, you can do alot with them- but you can't (really) improve their arm strength. They will always be limited in what kinds of throws they can make. Some QBs with less-than-super arms have still been very successful in the NFL. But can Teddy or Case be one of those guys? I don't know...
Rodgers had the fortune to sit behind Favre for a couple of years...had he been thrown to the wolves in year one, well, who knows. But patience? Patience is not an option any more in the NFL...most fans are screaming to put 'em in, coach!
This explains perfectly the Cleveland situation. A hapless, doormat of a team that drafts QB's like an annual rite of spring. Each one is proclaimed the "savior" and in most cases, sacrificed within 2 to three years. Along with their coach and/or OC. And they scratch the lager-crusted stubble on their double chins and wonder why the NFL gods hate them so.
Josh Allen wants to be the next sacrificial victim to rescue the Mistake on the Lake.
May God go with you, my son.
Quote: @"pumpf" said:
I do think that QBs can improve in many areas... but I don't know whether or not they can "suddenly" grow stronger arms. That's why teams take chances on "physical specimens", with the hope that they can fix the other issues. That doesn't always (often?) work... but if you take a guy like Teddy or Case, you can do alot with them- but you can't (really) improve their arm strength. They will always be limited in what kinds of throws they can make. Some QBs with less-than-super arms have still been very successful in the NFL. But can Teddy or Case be one of those guys? I don't know...
i have to disagree to some extent on arm strength. different people mature at different rates, some guys come into the league at 22 or 23 and are at their peak of their physical strength, while others may come in at 21 and still be several years away from their peak. Teddy could easily come back at 25 and exhibit a stronger arm than what we last saw at age 23. Case on the other hand, at nearly 30, not as likely. Not making an arguement for Teddy over Case (although I think Teddys arm was stronger than Cases to begin with) just saying that we honestly dont know what to expect from Teddy when/if he comes back, but I dont think we can assume that his arm will not be stronger that what we last saw. I know me at 21 and 25 were both pretty Fn strong, but me at 25 would have kicked the living shit out 21 year old me.
Brees is the classic example of a QB whose arm improved dramatically. And people get too hung up on arm strength. While it's nice it's not a huge factor to long term success. Growing physically and being smart enough to play the game are far more important.
Even then it's a roll of the dice.
Unfortunately I don't think there is one answer to your question. You really have to take it on a player by player basis. The rule of thumb is that high draft picks deserve three years before you can really draw any hard conclusions. But I'll go question question:
1. Yes, players can improve year over year and develop into a franchise guy. Most do. The big caveat is that you can usually see flashes of a franchise QB from time to time while they develop. That is mainly due to intangibles remaining pretty steady. The features you'll really see improve are footwork, overall throwing mechanics, and mental processing speed. Physically guys can get a little stronger but any major improvements to arm strength, accuracy, etc.. are mechanically driven.
2. As I mentioned above, rule of thumb is 3 years. But the big roadblock that seems to get in the way are owners who don't like to wait for QB's to develop. Once you change the coach or FO they aren't typically tied at the hip to the QB in place and likely will find their own options externally.
3. I think the fact that QB's are given up on earlier now than in the past is somewhat overblown. However, I do think the common gameplan has been to bring in a stop gap and let the young guy develop. If you wait for them to start and they fail quickly the team is going to have a new FO/Coach and likely QB (answer 2). So the time on the roster may be the same but time starting may be reduced.
Great responses all gang. Appreciate the differing perspectives.
I'm more of a "smash-mouth, pound the rock" guy myself, so many of the perceptions on the QB position elude me.
All your responses have given me some needed clarity so thanks to you all
I guess I just dont get the love for Keenum or Teddy as a future QB. Teddy has not played in 2 years and coming off his horrific injury it is an unknown how the knee will hold up over a season. Besides that he hadnt shown much before the injury. He did seem to have turned the corner somewhat but we really dont know. Case did have a great year and he is was great with the short to intermediate passes for the most part and he managed the games well and didnt make many mistakes. But when he did it was usually a huge mistake. Almost lost the Saints game because of an terrible pass. The pick 6 in the philly game totally changed the momentum of the game. Yes his arm was hit, but look at the replay, that ball was picked regardless it was a horrible decision. Case does not have the arm to make the deep throw nor is he very accurate when throwing it the same goes for Teddy. How many long passes were way under thrown throughout the season, many if not most. The vikings were bailed out with PI calls on some of them. Most of the long passes he did complete were lobbed and Theilan and Diggs again bailed him out, or they were shorter passes which the receivers turned into long passes with run after catch. I think philly exposed this. They packed 8 or 9 in the box continually and made Case beat them with the longer throws which he could not do. I dont mean this to be a knock on Case he had a career season but the fact of the matter is with the vikings defense this season he really didnt have to do alot. He was middle of the pack in yards per game at 253 yards/game and if you take out his 3 games over 300 yards and also throw out the Bears and Steelers games which he did not play the entire game he only averaged 202 yds. The 253 was 7th among playoff teams. I understand he alone DID NOT lose the championship game, I think we were out coached and the defense did not show up. Case proved with the best season of his career that he can take a team with a dominant defense to the playoffs but thats where it ends, he cant win a game for you when the defense is having a bad day or when the other team is taking away the run game and forcing him to throw. If healthy Bradford should be the choice to start with Teddy coming in to compete and be the back up. The kicker with Bradford is of course the knee so it would have to be some kind of contract with an injury clause so the team would not be on the hook for 20 million. All this being said sadly Case may be the best option with Cousins being the best FA option out there. The fact of the matter is in the last 22 years the super bowl champion has had a legitimate franchise QB 21 times. The Ravens being the exception with Dilfer.
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