07-10-2025, 10:44 AM
Summary: Overpaid for Fries and Van Ginkel; Allen is washed; too much for Aaron Jones; draft was a whiff; Positives -- sticking with McCarthy; adding Jordan Mason; re-signing Murphy Jr.
Minnesota Vikings: C+
Biggest move: Sticking with QB J.J. McCarthy as their starter
Move I liked: Sticking with McCarthy
Move I disliked: Signing DT Jonathan Allen
What to do at quarterback was the biggest, most important decision the Vikings had to make. There were essentially three options -- retain Sam Darnold, sign Aaron Rodgers or start McCarthy, their 2024 first-round pick.
They chose the last option, which I feel is correct. Darnold was coming off a career season, but his performance was overrated by the win-loss record. Despite having an elite playcaller as head coach and the league's best wide receiver, Darnold ranked 14th in QBR last season -- a number that includes his disastrous Week 18 game against the Lions but doesn't factor in his similarly dreadful wild-card game against the Rams.
Ultimately, Darnold's collapse made the choice easy. And the Vikings were correct to parry interest from Rodgers, who has not played well since 2021. Minnesota is in a far different position than the Steelers thanks to McCarthy.
The Vikings are also projected to gain a third-round compensatory pick for losing Darnold and a fourth for losing Daniel Jones, per OverTheCap.com, draft additions that are not trivial. But while I approve of the team's biggest choice this offseason, I was less fond of many of Minnesota's other decisions.
Will Fries is a promising guard, but handing him a five-year deal that averages over $17.5 million per season with $44 million fully guaranteed, per Roster Management System, seems incredibly rich for a player who has recorded average-ish pass block win rates in each of the last two seasons. Guards were hot, but, as has been mentioned earlier, several quality guards signed for $10 million per year or less.
Allen is 30 and declining; he had a below-average 8% pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle last season after being a top-10 player in the category a few seasons ago. Yet Minnesota paid him $17 million per year on a three-year deal (albeit with only $23.3 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com). That is pricier than the deal the Commanders cut Allen on and makes me think the Vikings should have traded a conditional seventh-round pick to Washington and taken Allen's old contract.
Andrew Van Ginkel is coming off a great season and clearly fits well in Brian Flores' defense, but he never exceeded six sacks before 2024. But Minnesota rewarded him with a one-year extension (through 2026) that added $23 million -- almost all fully guaranteed. Extending Van Ginkel is fine, but it was a bit rich and didn't come with more upside for Minnesota (such as non-guaranteed years after 2026).
Aaron Jones Sr. was long underrated because of his receiving skills but is now a 30-year-old running back, yet the team re-signed him to a multiyear deal with $11.5 million fully guaranteed.
Some of Minnesota's moves were fine, though. The Vikings re-signed cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. at three years and $18 million per year and traded essentially a fifth-round pick for running Jordan Mason, who recorded 1.4 yards over expectation per carry with the 49ers last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Both moves seemed reasonable.
I wasn't a fan of their draft, though. No team needed to trade down more, given Minnesota's dearth of picks, yet they picked guard Donovan Jackson in Round 1 even though they had a good deal available from the Giants and a great one from the Falcons, who traded up for each of the next two picks behind Minnesota. That was a major squandered opportunity.
__PRESENT
Minnesota Vikings: C+
Biggest move: Sticking with QB J.J. McCarthy as their starter
Move I liked: Sticking with McCarthy
Move I disliked: Signing DT Jonathan Allen
What to do at quarterback was the biggest, most important decision the Vikings had to make. There were essentially three options -- retain Sam Darnold, sign Aaron Rodgers or start McCarthy, their 2024 first-round pick.
They chose the last option, which I feel is correct. Darnold was coming off a career season, but his performance was overrated by the win-loss record. Despite having an elite playcaller as head coach and the league's best wide receiver, Darnold ranked 14th in QBR last season -- a number that includes his disastrous Week 18 game against the Lions but doesn't factor in his similarly dreadful wild-card game against the Rams.
Ultimately, Darnold's collapse made the choice easy. And the Vikings were correct to parry interest from Rodgers, who has not played well since 2021. Minnesota is in a far different position than the Steelers thanks to McCarthy.
The Vikings are also projected to gain a third-round compensatory pick for losing Darnold and a fourth for losing Daniel Jones, per OverTheCap.com, draft additions that are not trivial. But while I approve of the team's biggest choice this offseason, I was less fond of many of Minnesota's other decisions.
Will Fries is a promising guard, but handing him a five-year deal that averages over $17.5 million per season with $44 million fully guaranteed, per Roster Management System, seems incredibly rich for a player who has recorded average-ish pass block win rates in each of the last two seasons. Guards were hot, but, as has been mentioned earlier, several quality guards signed for $10 million per year or less.
Allen is 30 and declining; he had a below-average 8% pass rush win rate as a defensive tackle last season after being a top-10 player in the category a few seasons ago. Yet Minnesota paid him $17 million per year on a three-year deal (albeit with only $23.3 million fully guaranteed, per OverTheCap.com). That is pricier than the deal the Commanders cut Allen on and makes me think the Vikings should have traded a conditional seventh-round pick to Washington and taken Allen's old contract.
Andrew Van Ginkel is coming off a great season and clearly fits well in Brian Flores' defense, but he never exceeded six sacks before 2024. But Minnesota rewarded him with a one-year extension (through 2026) that added $23 million -- almost all fully guaranteed. Extending Van Ginkel is fine, but it was a bit rich and didn't come with more upside for Minnesota (such as non-guaranteed years after 2026).
Aaron Jones Sr. was long underrated because of his receiving skills but is now a 30-year-old running back, yet the team re-signed him to a multiyear deal with $11.5 million fully guaranteed.
Some of Minnesota's moves were fine, though. The Vikings re-signed cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. at three years and $18 million per year and traded essentially a fifth-round pick for running Jordan Mason, who recorded 1.4 yards over expectation per carry with the 49ers last season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Both moves seemed reasonable.
I wasn't a fan of their draft, though. No team needed to trade down more, given Minnesota's dearth of picks, yet they picked guard Donovan Jackson in Round 1 even though they had a good deal available from the Giants and a great one from the Falcons, who traded up for each of the next two picks behind Minnesota. That was a major squandered opportunity.
__PRESENT
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