Random Thoughts Pre Draft

[supafreak84]

I have been trying to sell myself on Emmanwori at 24 and just cannot do it. Trade back into the second round and take him there?, ok. The only 1st round Safety I see is Starks. My preference, if we can find a dance partner, is trading back and taking a CB with the first pick - Revel, Amos, Thomas, Hairston, Morrison. There is so much depth at DI that we can wait on that. I do agree on a Safety but that would probably be the second pick - the one we get for trading back. Winston would be great. Then DI with our next pick. We do need a TE and there are several good ones - BTW, if Loveland falls to 24, I could see us taking him. He would make JJ's job easier.

I just don't see a safety. I know Smith is year to year at this point, but we still have Mattelus, gave Theo Jackson a new deal, and Jay Ward is someone the organization likes and is still under contract for two more seasons. By all accounts the Flores scheme is a complicated one to learn, so if you draft a safety, you are essentially relegating that player to a redshirt type year where there only contributions will likely only be on special teams. There is no way you take that over a potential starting left guard, a rotational defensive lineman, a nickel corner or an impact running back who will get carries in rotation.

[JustInTime]

I just don't see a safety. I know Smith is year to year at this point, but we still have Mattelus, gave Theo Jackson a new deal, and Jay Ward is someone the organization likes and is still under contract for two more seasons. By all accounts the Flores scheme is a complicated one to learn, so if you draft a safety, you are essentially relegating that player to a redshirt type year where there only contributions will likely only be on special teams. There is no way you take that over a potential starting left guard, a rotational defensive lineman, a nickel corner or an impact running back who will get carries in rotation.

Why is the learning curve less for a nickel CB than S?

[supafreak84]

Why is the learning curve less for a nickel CB than S?

I'm not saying it is (although Lewis Cine might disagree), but looking at our roster there is more of an opportunity to play early as a corner than there would be at safety, where we are four deep already and any rookie impact for 2025 would likely be minimal.

[JustInTime]

I'm not saying it is (although Lewis Cine might disagree), but looking at our roster there is more of an opportunity to play early as a corner than there would be at safety, where we are four deep already and any rookie impact for 2025 would likely be minimal.

So, does the complexity of the D change because of the personnel available? I’m assuming if the path to playing nickel is an easier one the complexity of the D remains constant.

[supafreak84]

So, does the complexity of the D change because of the personnel available? I’m assuming if the path to playing nickel is an easier one the complexity of the D remains constant.

Potentially. It's well documented that we run difficult schemes with a lot of moving parts on both sides of the ball. Rookies usually don't play much, so combine that with roster depth at certain positions and I think it would be an uphill battle for a rookie safety to make much of an impact in a year where I think we need it. They'll be buried on the depth chart until Flores can trust them on the field and there is opportunity. I don't see opportunity when we are four deep and those four have played multiple years and know what they are doing. We just saw this play out with Lewis Cine. No thanks on a Safety with our 1st round pick.

[AGRforever]

Potentially. It's well documented that we run difficult schemes with a lot of moving parts on both sides of the ball. Rookies usually don't play much, so combine that with roster depth at certain positions and I think it would be an uphill battle for a rookie safety to make much of an impact in a year where I think we need it. They'll be buried on the depth chart until Flores can trust them on the field and there is opportunity. I don't see opportunity when we are four deep and those four have played multiple years and know what they are doing. We just saw this play out with Lewis Cine. No thanks on a Safety with our 1st round pick.

Ivan Pace played his whole rookie year when available.  It can be done.

[supafreak84]

Ivan Pace played his whole rookie year when available.  It can be done.

I thought about Pace and think he's that rare guy who did because he fit and there was opportunity. Does anybody see Starks overtaking Smith or Mattelus as a rookie? I don't

[JustInTime]

I thought about Pace and think he's that rare guy who did because he fit and there was opportunity. Does anybody see Starks overtaking Smith or Mattelus as a rookie? I don't

So an UDFA could fit but a premium draft pick has no chance? Is the complexity of the D different for iLBs or is it less complex due to the lack of other talent at the position? I guess I just don’t understand this vacillating level of difficulty depending on position. The positions are all pretty interdependent in the back 7.

Also, if S is more difficult for a rookie than nickel wouldn’t it be prudent to bring in a player a year early to learn under Hitman before he hangs them up? 

I’m also confused as to how the S group has all this experience together now. Theo spot started for Harry. Ward has maybe 5 more D snaps than I have. The bulk of the starting experience is Mettelus and Smith. I’m willing to bet Smith is gone after this year. So then we’ve got 1 year of Jackson Mettelus duo.

[MaroonBells]

I thought about Pace and think he's that rare guy who did because he fit and there was opportunity. Does anybody see Starks overtaking Smith or Mattelus as a rookie? I don't

I think you're depending too much on a 36 year old player not experiencing any kind of age-related decline. Last year was Smith's 3rd straight season of sub-70 grades. Now that's still pretty damn good, but the cliff can show up at any time. Even if Smith were to beat out a player like Starks (hard to see), Starks would be the guy in 2026. 

I'd take a good CB over a good Safety for positional impact, but I wouldn't hesitate to take a safety like Starks over one of the 2nd round CBs. Our depth chart at safety looks like this: Metellus, Smith, Theo Jackson, Jay Ward and Bubba Bolden. It needs an infusion of youth and deep speed. That doesn't have to be our 1st pick, but it's a bigger need than some are thinking.

[supafreak84]

So an UDFA could fit but a premium draft pick has no chance? Is the complexity of the D different for iLBs or is it less complex due to the lack of other talent at the position? I guess I just don’t understand this vacillating level of difficulty depending on position. The positions are all pretty interdependent in the back 7.

Also, if S is more difficult for a rookie than nickel wouldn’t it be prudent to bring in a player a year early to learn under Hitman before he hangs them up? 

I’m also confused as to how the S group has all this experience together now. Theo spot started for Harry. Ward has maybe 5 more D snaps than I have. The bulk of the starting experience is Mettelus and Smith. I’m willing to bet Smith is gone after this year. So then we’ve got 1 year of Jackson Mettelus duo.

I'm not going to get involved in an elongated discussion breaking down the dynamics of each position group and how that plays into our scheme. It's a difficult scheme to learn from multiple sources and I just think drafting a safety for this season when we have limited draft picks and needing roster impact is a dumb move when we are four deep at safety currently and just signed the backup on an extension. We will get more immediate impact from almost any other position. We don't need another Lewis Cine buried on the depth chart who was never able to figure out the defense (which was reported). If you want to take a safety later on, cool...but not in the 1st round

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I think you're depending too much on a 36 year old player not experiencing any kind of age-related decline. Last year was Smith's 3rd straight season of sub-70 grades. Now that's still pretty damn good, but the cliff can show up at any time. Even if Smith were to beat out a player like Starks (hard to see), Starks would be the guy in 2026. 

I'd take a good CB over a good Safety for positional impact, but I wouldn't hesitate to take a safety like Starks over one of the 2nd round CBs. Our depth chart at safety looks like this: Metellus, Smith, Theo Jackson, Jay Ward and Bubba Bolden. It needs an infusion of youth and deep speed. That doesn't have to be our 1st pick, but it's a bigger need than some are thinking.

I'm good if they want to take a flyer on a Safety later in the draft, but not in the 1st round. We need an impact player and it's logical to think any safety would be buried behind the starters and it would be an uphill battle to beat out the backups. Look at Dallas Turner. That was exactly how it played put for him last season. Lewis Cine struggled to learn the defense. Give me someone who can play and make an impact as a rookie