The Athletic: The Sam Darnold Effect

[StickierBuns]

What will the Vikings do? And more to the point, what can they pull off? 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6163679...d-vikings/

[JustInTime]

Alec: Right and being like, ‘We know he wants to come to us and he’s going to hit free agency regardless. So why would we part with a fourth-round pick or what have you?’ I’ve also had conversations with people internally where they’re like, ‘Alec, how often are premium players being traded for premium draft capital in this day and age of the NFL?’ You would be able to go through history; I’m thinking Bradley Chubb, maybe Jalen Ramsey and Tyreek Hill. It’s interesting to think about how much of a return these players are generating via draft picks because I don’t think it happens that often in these times in the NFL.

[StickierBuns]

Alec: Right and being like, ‘We know he wants to come to us and he’s going to hit free agency regardless. So why would we part with a fourth-round pick or what have you?’ I’ve also had conversations with people internally where they’re like, ‘Alec, how often are premium players being traded for premium draft capital in this day and age of the NFL?’ You would be able to go through history; I’m thinking Bradley Chubb, maybe Jalen Ramsey and Tyreek Hill. It’s interesting to think about how much of a return these players are generating via draft picks because I don’t think it happens that often in these times in the NFL.

On the record, I do not think Minnesota is going to tag and trade Darnold. I think he just walks and signs elsewhere. I've said as much for a month:

The #Vikings “do not anticipate” placing the franchise tag on Sam Darnold, and will likely let him hit the open market,
@Andrew_Krammer
mentioned on Vikings Happy Hour
The franchise tag for Darnold would’ve been $40M after the recent cap numbers came out.

[AGRforever]

I’ve always not wanted them to tag him unless they were planning on keeping him.

[MaroonBells]

I’ve always not wanted them to tag him unless they were planning on keeping him.

You hate draft picks? Or do you think it doesn't fit the Vikings player-friendly brand? Because I can see that. Tag and trade has never been the most likely outcome because it ostensibly limits what Darnold can get on the open market and I think KOC is a big advocate for his QBs. But if a team doesn't want to play that game, they can just send us a pick.

[badgervike]

You hate draft picks? Or do you think it doesn't fit the Vikings player-friendly brand? Because I can see that. Tag and trade has never been the most likely outcome because it ostensibly limits what Darnold can get on the open market and I think KOC is a big advocate for his QBs. But if a team doesn't want to play that game, they can just send us a pick.

You'd be rolling the dice on that one I'm afraid.  This is playing a little bit too much Madden.  What if nobody is willing to pay Darnold AND give up prime draft capital after he visibly regressed to bad Sam at the end of the season.  You'd be stuck paying Sam $40M for (hopefully) a back up role in an offseason that we're going to need all the cap space we can get to fill holes through FA due to lack of draft picks.

The closest comparison for Darnold has always been Baker Mayfield.  Tampa Bay paid Mayfield $100M but didn't give up any draft picks.

[hogjowlsjohnny]

A tag and trade would require a lot of pieces to fall in place to make it work. Primarily it require a team that really wants Darnold and doesn't want him to get to free agency. But it would also require a location and a contract Darnold would want to sign, because the Vikings aren't going to chance paying Darnold 41 million.
If the Vikings pay Darnold they will be right back in the same boat they were in with Cousins. That's not going to happen.
I'm sure they had tag and trade conversations with other teams at the combine. Hopefully one bites, but most may be content to wait until free agency. We'll soon see if Kwesi can make anything happen!

[StickierBuns]

IMO, there is one team that makes the most sense and its where he's going: Las Vegas. Pete Carroll is 73 years, he wants to win now (or try to) and they've got the cap room to sign Uncle Sammy (and front load the contract, freeing them up to draft a rookie and let him sit) and then some. New facilities. Not a bad place for a single guy like Darnold and much closer to his family (very short flight or you could even drive it).

I think Darnold is going to be a very high priced bridge QB in essence.

[MaroonBells]

You'd be rolling the dice on that one I'm afraid.  This is playing a little bit too much Madden.  What if nobody is willing to pay Darnold AND give up prime draft capital after he visibly regressed to bad Sam at the end of the season.  You'd be stuck paying Sam $40M for (hopefully) a back up role in an offseason that we're going to need all the cap space we can get to fill holes through FA due to lack of draft picks.

The closest comparison for Darnold has always been Baker Mayfield.  Tampa Bay paid Mayfield $100M but didn't give up any draft picks.

I think it's pretty clear the Vikings would have to have the trade terms agreed to before placing the tag on him. That's probably what they're trying to do now in Indy. But again, it just doesn't seem very likely given what we know about KOC. I'll be very happy, but surprised, if it happens.

[StickierBuns]

IMO, there is one team that makes the most sense and its where he's going: Las Vegas. Pete Carroll is 73 years, he wants to win now (or try to) and they've got the cap room to sign Uncle Sammy (and front load the contract, freeing them up to draft a rookie and let him sit) and then some. New facilities. Not a bad place for a single guy like Darnold and much closer to his family (very short flight or you could even drive it).

I think Darnold is going to be a very high priced bridge QB in essence.

LMAO. Nobody has their pulse on the NFL like me:

---

p.s. 

Dianna Russini
@DMRussini
·
12m
The New York Giants are now shifting their interest to Aaron Rodgers. They’ve been discussing it all week in Indy per sources.

---

and....

Another one. Sounds like the
@Steelers
want to retain either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields.

The pool of teams are closing on Sam Darnold. C'mon back for $7 million to backup McCarthy!