Tight Ends signings and Hock's injury

[VikingOracle]

Normally, in reading tea leaves, I would worry about Hockenson's recovery if, in a matter of a week, the Vikings signed not one but two TEs: Robert Tonyan (who appeared in 17 games for the Bears last year) and Sammis Reyes (international player pathway program who formerly was on practice squad of Bears and Jaguars -- and incidentally has the same physique as I do).  That means that, in addition to Hock, the Vikings have Josh Oliver (one of the best blocking TEs), Johnny Mundt ("best 3rd TE in the NFL" according to KOC), Nick Muse (appeared in 12 games the past two seasons), Robert Tonyan, Sammis Reyes and rookie cannon fodder Trey Knox. 

Now, Hock says he is making "incredible" progress on his knee recovery.  So, the Vikings adding 2 TEs piqued my interest.  The NIH has an in depth analysis of ACL injuries (the more severe of Hock's knee injury), so I reviewed for perspective: Return to Play and Performance.  In summary (see Table 2): average recovery time for a TE is 15 months and only 25% returned in a year and another 21% by the end of year 2.  Interestingly, for WR and TE, after recovery there is only a 17.7% decrease in # of snaps after recovery (as compared to RBs at 83% and DT/DE at 73% less snaps). 

So, the "analytics" plays into the Vikings sudden signing of TEs.  Basically, expecting Hock to return to the field before week 16 (when he was injured in 2023) would be an incredible recovery.  If the Vikes are mathematically eliminated by then, I am not certain Hock will see the field in 2024 and that might be the wise decision.

[CFIAvike]

This makes a lot of sense as it fits with the “throwaway season” narrative. Hock probably doesn’t see the field this season…and the more I think about it, I don’t think we see JJM until we’re literally mathematically eliminated.

There are so many guys on one or two year deals who were signed to literally take an absolute beating this year. They’re here to help the team “competitively rebuild” and most will be gone in 2025.

It is what it is. You can’t make omelettes without breaking eggs. This year we crack a dozen and hope we’re eating good in 2025.

[StickierBuns]

Its going to take time for TJ to heal. No need to rush him back. I do think he's ahead of the curve recovering but I think he's always been pegged for a later return, the injury happened December 24th and the surgery took place a bit after that. It hasn't been that long. His knee was messed up a little worse than the average knee injury.

[MAD GAINZ]

Kyler Murray had a late season ACL injury in 2022 and was back on the field in mid-November this past season. Started the final 8 games for the Cardinals.

Hock was a little over a month behind Murray when he had his ACL surgery since he had to wait a couple weeks to let his MCL heal.

I'm guessing we don't see Hock until Week 10 at the earliest and maybe not at all this season. It'll obviously depend on avoiding setbacks, if we're in the playoffs hunt, etc. Thankfully it doesn't sound like we're rushing him back and that's smart because I think "inside" the Vikings are approaching this season as an evaluation year even though they want to win and compete. It's all about figuring out how all these new pieces fit and getting McCarthy ready to take over the team at some point.

[MaroonBells]

I guess maybe the biggest question is do we put Hock on season ending IR or not. We'll see. 

We're going to see a lot of those down roster tight ends until he's back. My guess is Oliver is TE1 with Tonyan and Mundt rotating at TE2. I think the team likes Nick Muse a lot too. Doubt the others make the team.

[VikingOracle]

I guess maybe the biggest question is do we put Hock on season ending IR or not. We'll see. 

We're going to see a lot of those down roster tight ends until he's back. My guess is Oliver is TE1 with Tonyan and Mundt rotating at TE2. I think the team likes Nick Muse a lot too. Doubt the others make the team.

I think they will put him on physically unable to perform list meaning he won't be eligible for the first four weeks of the season.  That way, he doesn't count towards the 53 (until he is taken off the PUP list).

---

I am also guessing that with the uncertainty around WR3, TE takes on more importance in KOC's offense. I also think the addition of Aaron Jones might also make KOC lean into more TE centric formations.

[purplefaithful]

These guys start going on IR for a year, it really makes me wonder if/how they wil come back vs before.

This really sucks.

Jeezuz; Losing Cousins, TJH and JJ? that pretty much wiped out the offense in 23.

[StickierBuns]

These guys start going on IR for a year, it really makes me wonder if/how they wil come back vs before.

This really sucks.

Jeezuz; Losing Cousins, TJH and JJ? that pretty much wiped out the offense in 23.

Some fans don't think so, lol......

[pattersaur]

These guys start going on IR for a year, it really makes me wonder if/how they wil come back vs before.

This really sucks.

Jeezuz; Losing Cousins, TJH and JJ? that pretty much wiped out the offense in 23.

Yeah this is rough news if he's out for all or most of the year. The drop off from Hockenson to Bob Tonyan is STEEP.

I'm higher on Oliver than I think most fans and am excited to see him get more balls thrown his way, but I can't argue with his drop rate and some of those stats. Hopefully it's something he can improve and help out the team.

Also and perhaps more importantly, hopefully Justin and 3 stay healthy. We should still be okay with those two and Aaron Jones as a strong pass catching group. But if one goes down that could change in a hurry.

[TheWinterSKOLdier]

TJ's injury makes me even more surprised that the team didn't go out and get a solid #3 WR. If he's out a good portion of the year and either Jefferson or Addison get hurt, we're f*cked.