Misc. Thoughts

[VikingOracle]

Just what is going through my head this April:

• Consequential Draft:  Leading up to the draft, this feels like the most consequential draft in decades.  Yes, there are drafts that turned into very consequential drafts because of who was chosen, but this feels different.  First, there is the whole QB of the future -- something that has been building for the past few years.  The Vikings have really put them into the position to draft a good QB in a QB rich draft.  Additionally, I think Kwesi's entire NFL career is at stake (less so KOC).  Really, if Kwesi whiffs here, I don't think he will ever be a GM again in this league (and it will hurt the future application of analytics).  That os why I can see the Vikings trading 3 1st rounders + to get whomever they consider to be the 3rd best QB.  KOC can recover from a failure of a 1st rd QB because he already has a record of being a good coach and he has the opportunity to make Darnold passable.
  
• Free Agency:  Despite what I wrote above, I do think this was Kwesi's best offseason.  It is the first time I could see a rational attack plan for free agency -- you build up the defense by adding a lot more speed and you bring in a running back that is a good runner and receiver who can help Darnold the most.
  
• Patriots Tea Leaves:  This is what Mayo said a couple of days ago about a rebuild: "So, when you look at our team -- I'm not asking for patience but I kind of am. Its a process.  It is not only about the quarterback."  That, to me, is him preparing the fan base for the possibility of the Patriots trading out of 3.  Additionally, the more recent smoke out of the Patriots is that they favor JJ Mc.  -- again, I think whenever you hear rumors you have to ask why now?  If the Patriots want to extort the most for the 3rd overall, it makes sense for them to create a smokescreen that they like the same QB they think the Vikings like. 
  
• Draft Predictions:  I am not going to make any predictions regarding whom the Vikings will draft but I will make one (or one and a half) predictions -- I believe the Vikings will trade Cine during the draft for day 3 pick (and maybe Booth).  I think a team that misses out on a safety would like to take a flyer on Cine (same with CB and Booth).  This way Kwesi can recover something for Cine.
  
• Brian Flores:  I am ecstatic that he is back and that he is in the position to really participate in this draft.  It felt to me that Kwesi gave Flores the type of players he likes for his scheme during free agency.
  

Mike -- thanks for all the hard work, probably time to put up a fundraiser -- I haven't seen one for the site for a couple of years.  I assume the new platform has a license fee.

[Mike Olson]

Mike -- thanks for all the hard work, probably time to put up a fundraiser -- I haven't seen one for the site for a couple of years.  I assume the new platform has a license fee.

Actually the forum software licensing is free. The hosting costs some money and I have been meaning to do the fundraiser thing but wanted to make sure that the forum is stable and secure without interruptions first. Probably will put it out there soon.

Thanks!

[MaroonBells]

In some ways, drafting a rookie QB is a new lease for Kwesi. No matter who the QB is, he's unlikely to see snaps in '24. So '25 will be his coming out party, and even then, he's going to get a couple years to prove himself. So yes, he has to hit, but it's going to be a while before that judgement comes. 

Another thing Mayo said that stuck with me is that he wants to build his roster "the right way," which is sort of an argument for building the roster before throwing a young QB into it. I don't know what the Patriots will do, but if I were them, I'd trade out. Two 1sts this year, two next. That's fuel for growing a team.

[Montana Tom]

Oh wise Oracle, thank you for your musings.

I agree that this draft will be consequential, but I hope and pray that we do not mortgage the future by trading a few spots up from #11. Get two serviceable first rounders that can contribute...a QBOTF (to ease into service next year or even beyond, depending on how Darnold plays out this year), and a force at DT. I've said this before...this is an unusually deep and high quality QB draft (maybe the best since '83), and the stakes are high. Can you win with Penex Jr or Bo Nix and a stacked team around him? Or is having a Daniels, McCarthy or Maye a requisite to be able to win in the NFL? I suggest that this is the ultimate team sport. I mean Trent Dilfer has a Super Bowl ring.

One of the worst trades when we were "one player away from the Super Bowl" was Herschel Walker, which helped build the Dallas Dynasty. Ugh.

I agree with Maroon Bells that Jerrod Mayo has the correct attitude about building the roster "the right way", and that translates to more than one contributor in the draft.

I also agree that this was Kwesi's best free-agency. I actually think losing Hunter smarts more than losing Cousins, but combined with other restructurings, it opened up Cap Space to create flexibility. We are really setting ourselves up for major cap space flexibility next year. This year might end up being just an entertaining placeholder.

Regarding the return of Flores, I too am thrilled he's back. In a twisted sort of way, his lawsuit against the NFL may have blackballed him for future head coaching jobs...for a while. I had a very wise boss years ago that said that you need to give a new idea three years for it to be fully evaluated. This is his year #2.

Of course it doesn't matter what I think. And whatever Kwesi and KOC decide, of course I might grouse about it but I'll eventually support it.

[NorseFeathers]

Maybe Kwesi planned it this way. I'm impressed if he did. Knowing we'd need to draft a young star QB, that this QB would probably require the sacrifice of a lot of draft picks, to prepare for the lack of draft picks by freeing up a lot of cap space, to build the team the next 2 or 3 years with cap money. Of course building with cap money isn't sustainable, but doable with a QB on his rookie contract. 

He best hit on the QB.

[supafreak84]

In some ways, drafting a rookie QB is a new lease for Kwesi. No matter who the QB is, he's unlikely to see snaps in '24. So '25 will be his coming out party, and even then, he's going to get a couple years to prove himself. So yes, he has to hit, but it's going to be a while before that judgement comes. 

Another thing Mayo said that stuck with me is that he wants to build his roster "the right way," which is sort of an argument for building the roster before throwing a young QB into it. I don't know what the Patriots will do, but if I were them, I'd trade out. Two 1sts this year, two next. That's fuel for growing a team.

I just think the CJ Stroud effect plays huge here. Teams at the top who need a QB saw what he did in turning an awful Texans team into immediate contenders and I can guarantee they'll think they can do the same. There's also the factor of "when are we going to be drafting this high again or be in position to draft a top prospect at the position?" For these reasons, the price tag to even enter into conversation to trade up into those top 4 spots is astronomical. They were talking about it on NFL radio the other day that they believe teams like the Vikings who want to trade up, aren't finding teams even willing to listen.

[StickierBuns]

Andrew Krammer
@Andrew_Krammer
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah talking to local reporters now. Reiterates they've eyed this QB class for a couple years.

"Multiple guys we're in love with... And multiple guys we're in love with at a certain value."

---

Alec Lewis
@alec_lewis
·
24m
Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah today on balancing uncertainty in evaluation with the magnitude of a decision like drafting a QB: "Just because something is risky doesn’t mean you have to stay away from it."

[Havoc]

As Kwesi said, multiple guys they like. I’ve watched all of these top 6 a lot and I’m a fan of all of them. I see different risk levels with each, but I’d have no problem with them taking any of them. It wouldn’t surprise me if they feel the same way.

With that said, I’m not confident they can move up any further than the Giants. I’d be surprised if they are able to get higher.

[purplefaithful]

As Kwesi said, multiple guys they like. I’ve watched all of these top 6 a lot and I’m a fan of all of them. I see different risk levels with each, but I’d have no problem with them taking any of them. It wouldn’t surprise me if they feel the same way.

With that said, I’m not confident they can move up any further than the Giants. I’d be surprised if they are able to get higher.

Me either...I think getting to 5 would be tough.


KAM is pretty transparent about having a value equation for moving-up and they wont go beyond that. Not sure how comfortable I am with that. Don't be foolish, buy my spider senses are going off regarding being too scripted/inflexible.

Closer we get to the draft the more I think:

They love Maye the most, but not going to be possible
This is a QB class with no consensus after Caleb
They will end-up with Penix or Nix

[minny65]

As Kwesi said, multiple guys they like. I’ve watched all of these top 6 a lot and I’m a fan of all of them. I see different risk levels with each, but I’d have no problem with them taking any of them. It wouldn’t surprise me if they feel the same way.

With that said, I’m not confident they can move up any further than the Giants. I’d be surprised if they are able to get higher.

I have no clue either when it comes to QB crop, but the team/scout/Kwesi/KOC better have the one guy that separated and carpe diem.  They get paid the big bucks to make the tough decisions.  

Now if that guy is Maye or Daniels and they are gone before pick 4 and no one wants to trade then that is the way the cookie crumbles.  The Team staff better have option 2 QB scouted and if that is at 23 then it is at 23. 

I just love the way KC moved up for Mahomes with conviction when they already had an all pro QB in Smith.  Also, the way the Bills moved up some for Josh Allen.  My point is go get your guy!

Of course, I know my two examples are far outweighed by way more misses but I want to go down swinging at the QB position.