There’s no such thing as “value” or expected draft spot, other than in the media and draftniks mind. This is why mock drafts are so often wildly off. Even the most clued in guys with the best personal networks do poorly. That’s with knowing the needs of each team! Teams regularly use subterfuge and any other method available to them to try and push guys down in the medias mind. Heavy manipulation is the norm.
If the Vikings have JJM as their 3rd best prospect and take him, its unlikely they are the only team that feels that way. Just because the “consensus” claims a player is a “late first round value”, doesn’t make it so. In fact, the “consensus” is usually wrong.
If you actually watch film and study the players, you’ll quickly learn that a lot of the “experts”, clearly watch little to no tape. I know that seems crazy, but that’s the reality. Not only do many not watch tape and simply regurgitate one another (most who also didn’t watch the player), the ones that do watch some film will make a statement on a player based off a single rep in a single game. I’m not joking. It’s absolutely mind blowing how poor some of these people are at their jobs. It’s literally smoke and mirrors group think. Often there is no basis in reality.
![[Image: 6871cxo5zt65.gif]](https://vikefans.com/vfforums/uploads/editor/yp/6871cxo5zt65.gif)
It’s all just mental gymnastics at this point…  B)
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
There’s no such thing as “value” or expected draft spot, other than in the media and draftniks mind. This is why mock drafts are so often wildly off. Even the most clued in guys with the best personal networks do poorly. That’s with knowing the needs of each team! Teams regularly use subterfuge and any other method available to them to try and push guys down in the medias mind. Heavy manipulation is the norm.
If the Vikings have JJM as their 3rd best prospect and take him, its unlikely they are the only team that feels that way. Just because the “consensus” claims a player is a “late first round value”, doesn’t make it so. In fact, the “consensus” is usually wrong.
If you actually watch film and study the players, you’ll quickly learn that a lot of the “experts”, clearly watch little to no tape. I know that seems crazy, but that’s the reality. Not only do many not watch tape and simply regurgitate one another (most who also didn’t watch the player), the ones that do watch some film will make a statement on a player based off a single rep in a single game. I’m not joking. It’s absolutely mind blowing how poor some of these people are at their jobs. It’s literally smoke and mirrors group think. Often there is no basis in reality.
100%
IMHO "Value" , "Consensus" and "Upside" are all misnomers and irrelevant in determining whether a drafted player succeeds in the NFL or not.
The percentage rate of players that BUST is constant over time. That's not debatable.
Example-
1 (20) Kenny Pickett - Traded
3 (74)
Desmond Ridder - Traded
3 (86)
Malik Willis - Titans QB3
3 (94)
Matt Corral - Birmingham Stallions (UFL)
4 (137) Bailey Zappe - Patriots QB2
5 (144) Sam Howell - Traded
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
If you actually watch film and study the players, you’ll quickly learn that a lot of the “experts”, clearly watch little to no tape. I know that seems crazy, but that’s the reality. Not only do many not watch tape and simply regurgitate one another (most who also didn’t watch the player), the ones that do watch some film will make a statement on a player based off a single rep in a single game. I’m not joking. It’s absolutely mind blowing how poor some of these people are at their jobs. It’s literally smoke and mirrors group think. Often there is no basis in reality.
Honestly, its just job justification for them. The NFL is so 24/7 almost every day of the year, the #1 sport. The Draft is a phenomenon. A whole cottage industry of kids with podcasts, etc. trying to make a living on YouTube/Twitter being NFL 'experts'. Everyone is the star of their own movie today in social media. The national media 'experts' know how to get clicks and views: hot takes. Outrageous garbage they don't even believe, but it moves the needle. Character actors and actresses playing roles to increase revenue for the sports machine. Mostly contrived and disingenuous. Then there are the liars: those that quote 'sources' that don't have sources. No way to fact check or verify the lying. The more dramatic, the more a good chunk of fans bite down hard.
Probably sounds like old man rant time by me, but its the truth.
Quote: @StickyBun said:
@ Havoc1649 said:
If you actually watch film and study the players, you’ll quickly learn that a lot of the “experts”, clearly watch little to no tape. I know that seems crazy, but that’s the reality. Not only do many not watch tape and simply regurgitate one another (most who also didn’t watch the player), the ones that do watch some film will make a statement on a player based off a single rep in a single game. I’m not joking. It’s absolutely mind blowing how poor some of these people are at their jobs. It’s literally smoke and mirrors group think. Often there is no basis in reality.
Honestly, its just job justification for them. The NFL is so 24/7 almost every day of the year, the #1 sport. The Draft is a phenomenon. A whole cottage industry of kids with podcasts, etc. trying to make a living on YouTube/Twitter being NFL 'experts'. Everyone is the star of their own movie today in social media. The national media 'experts' know how to get clicks and views: hot takes. Outrageous garbage they don't even believe, but it moves the needle. Character actors and actresses playing roles to increase revenue for the sports machine. Mostly contrived and disingenuous. Then there are the liars: those that quote 'sources' that don't have sources. No way to fact check or verify the lying. The more dramatic, the more a good chunk of fans bite down hard.
Probably sounds like old man rant time by me, but its the truth.
I find the best approach is to follow 2 or 3 who have a proven track record & ignore the rest. Daniel Jerimiah is one. Another is the NFL Stock Exchange podcast which is owned by PFF.
How I do miss Joel Buchsbaum.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ Wetlander said:
Yeah, I was expecting another trade into the top 3 to happen shortly after the trade with Houston... but it seems like we just found a beneficial deal to get another first round pick now rather than trying to go thru the pressure of making something happen closer to the draft.
It DOES give us an edge on the Broncos and Raiders because a first this year is worth more than next year. Basically all we've done is solidify having the best trade up package if a team is willing to deal. The more time that passes, the more it's looking like we'll execute a deal on draft day instead.
The 49ers traded up to 3 on March 26th, 2021. I could see similar timing.
But the Vikings may have to wait until draft day to see what Washington does. They still could take Maye over Daniels and how does that change what the Vikings plan to do? We assume they like Maye...and McCarthy almost as much. But are they really prepared to invest that much draft capital into a guy many still rank as a late 1st rounder?
IOW, if Maye gets past Washington, the Vikings will pull the trigger on the Pats deal. If Washington takes Maye, the Vikings don't want to have already bought and paid for pick 3, awkwardly debating a QB who doesn't fit (Daniels) with a QB who has late-1st value.
At this point I think the Vikings and other teams need time to finish their evaluations. Then the conversations is do you like one, two, or all four of these guys? How big of a preference do you have between them? That probably dictates how quickly you'd see them attempt to move up.
If you conceivably like all 4 I think you could see a move up to #4 sooner than later if AZ is open to it. Secures you a QB and allows you to them work with Was & NE to jockey for position. E.G say MN loves Maye and WAS loves JJM. They can ultimately filp-flop safely at that point.
If MN only likes 2 of the QBs (say Maye and Daniels), then I think you may end up having to wait until draft day. Or at a minimum until NE is ready to move off their pick if they go that route.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ Wetlander said:
Yeah, I was expecting another trade into the top 3 to happen shortly after the trade with Houston... but it seems like we just found a beneficial deal to get another first round pick now rather than trying to go thru the pressure of making something happen closer to the draft.
It DOES give us an edge on the Broncos and Raiders because a first this year is worth more than next year. Basically all we've done is solidify having the best trade up package if a team is willing to deal. The more time that passes, the more it's looking like we'll execute a deal on draft day instead.
The 49ers traded up to 3 on March 26th, 2021. I could see similar timing.
But the Vikings may have to wait until draft day to see what Washington does. They still could take Maye over Daniels and how does that change what the Vikings plan to do? We assume they like Maye...and McCarthy almost as much. But are they really prepared to invest that much draft capital into a guy many still rank as a late 1st rounder?
IOW, if Maye gets past Washington, the Vikings will pull the trigger on the Pats deal. If Washington takes Maye, the Vikings don't want to have already bought and paid for pick 3, awkwardly debating a QB who doesn't fit (Daniels) with a QB who has late-1st value.
At this point I think the Vikings and other teams need time to finish their evaluations. Then the conversations is do you like one, two, or all four of these guys? How big of a preference do you have between them? That probably dictates how quickly you'd see them attempt to move up.
If you conceivably like all 4 I think you could see a move up to #4 sooner than later if AZ is open to it. Secures you a QB and allows you to them work with Was & NE to jockey for position. E.G say MN loves Maye and WAS loves JJM. They can ultimately filp-flop safely at that point.
If MN only likes 2 of the QBs (say Maye and Daniels), then I think you may end up having to wait until draft day. Or at a minimum until NE is ready to move off their pick if they go that route.
Makes me wonder what the NFL thinks about this QB class. The more I watch, the less separation I see. I like Nix and Penix almost as much as McCarthy and Maye. Wonder if the NFL sees it that way too.
The 2020 class had five top QBs. Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love and Hurts. All have been hits to one degree or another. A year later, the top five was Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields and Jones. 4 of the 5 busts.
Is this class more 2020 or more 2021?
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ Wetlander said:
Yeah, I was expecting another trade into the top 3 to happen shortly after the trade with Houston... but it seems like we just found a beneficial deal to get another first round pick now rather than trying to go thru the pressure of making something happen closer to the draft.
It DOES give us an edge on the Broncos and Raiders because a first this year is worth more than next year. Basically all we've done is solidify having the best trade up package if a team is willing to deal. The more time that passes, the more it's looking like we'll execute a deal on draft day instead.
The 49ers traded up to 3 on March 26th, 2021. I could see similar timing.
But the Vikings may have to wait until draft day to see what Washington does. They still could take Maye over Daniels and how does that change what the Vikings plan to do? We assume they like Maye...and McCarthy almost as much. But are they really prepared to invest that much draft capital into a guy many still rank as a late 1st rounder?
IOW, if Maye gets past Washington, the Vikings will pull the trigger on the Pats deal. If Washington takes Maye, the Vikings don't want to have already bought and paid for pick 3, awkwardly debating a QB who doesn't fit (Daniels) with a QB who has late-1st value.
At this point I think the Vikings and other teams need time to finish their evaluations. Then the conversations is do you like one, two, or all four of these guys? How big of a preference do you have between them? That probably dictates how quickly you'd see them attempt to move up.
If you conceivably like all 4 I think you could see a move up to #4 sooner than later if AZ is open to it. Secures you a QB and allows you to them work with Was & NE to jockey for position. E.G say MN loves Maye and WAS loves JJM. They can ultimately filp-flop safely at that point.
If MN only likes 2 of the QBs (say Maye and Daniels), then I think you may end up having to wait until draft day. Or at a minimum until NE is ready to move off their pick if they go that route.
Makes me wonder what the NFL thinks about this QB class. The more I watch, the less separation I see. I like Nix and Penix almost as much as McCarthy and Maye. Wonder if the NFL sees it that way too.
The 2020 class had five top QBs. Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love and Hurts. All have been hits to one degree or another. A year later, the top five was Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields and Jones. 4 of the 5 busts.
Is this class more 2020 or more 2021?
Without getting into the evaluations, I think this class is more similar to 2020. You have a bunch of guys with really high-end traits which makes it hard to distinguish how each team will rank the players. In 2020 teams ended up pseudo ranking them based on on-field success. Joe Burrow (national champion), Tua (high end SEC performances), Herbert (production but inconsistent), Love (tools). 2021 was a bunch of guys with different skillsets, which in hindsight is probably why teams over-evaluated. They were all the "best" but really not that good with their talents.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ Wetlander said:
Yeah, I was expecting another trade into the top 3 to happen shortly after the trade with Houston... but it seems like we just found a beneficial deal to get another first round pick now rather than trying to go thru the pressure of making something happen closer to the draft.
It DOES give us an edge on the Broncos and Raiders because a first this year is worth more than next year. Basically all we've done is solidify having the best trade up package if a team is willing to deal. The more time that passes, the more it's looking like we'll execute a deal on draft day instead.
The 49ers traded up to 3 on March 26th, 2021. I could see similar timing.
But the Vikings may have to wait until draft day to see what Washington does. They still could take Maye over Daniels and how does that change what the Vikings plan to do? We assume they like Maye...and McCarthy almost as much. But are they really prepared to invest that much draft capital into a guy many still rank as a late 1st rounder?
IOW, if Maye gets past Washington, the Vikings will pull the trigger on the Pats deal. If Washington takes Maye, the Vikings don't want to have already bought and paid for pick 3, awkwardly debating a QB who doesn't fit (Daniels) with a QB who has late-1st value.
At this point I think the Vikings and other teams need time to finish their evaluations. Then the conversations is do you like one, two, or all four of these guys? How big of a preference do you have between them? That probably dictates how quickly you'd see them attempt to move up.
If you conceivably like all 4 I think you could see a move up to #4 sooner than later if AZ is open to it. Secures you a QB and allows you to them work with Was & NE to jockey for position. E.G say MN loves Maye and WAS loves JJM. They can ultimately filp-flop safely at that point.
If MN only likes 2 of the QBs (say Maye and Daniels), then I think you may end up having to wait until draft day. Or at a minimum until NE is ready to move off their pick if they go that route.
Makes me wonder what the NFL thinks about this QB class. The more I watch, the less separation I see. I like Nix and Penix almost as much as McCarthy and Maye. Wonder if the NFL sees it that way too.
The 2020 class had five top QBs. Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Love and Hurts. All have been hits to one degree or another. A year later, the top five was Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields and Jones. 4 of the 5 busts.
Is this class more 2020 or more 2021?
Without getting into the evaluations, I think this class is more similar to 2020. You have a bunch of guys with really high-end traits which makes it hard to distinguish how each team will rank the players. In 2020 teams ended up pseudo ranking them based on on-field success. Joe Burrow (national champion), Tua (high end SEC performances), Herbert (production but inconsistent), Love (tools). 2021 was a bunch of guys with different skillsets, which in hindsight is probably why teams over-evaluated. They were all the "best" but really not that good with their talents.
Are you planning on releasing a mock(s) this year? I feel like it's our most important draft in years and you've been pretty quiet thus far. Give us our fix please!
Quote: @Knucklehead said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ Havoc1649 said:
If you actually watch film and study the players, you’ll quickly learn that a lot of the “experts”, clearly watch little to no tape. I know that seems crazy, but that’s the reality. Not only do many not watch tape and simply regurgitate one another (most who also didn’t watch the player), the ones that do watch some film will make a statement on a player based off a single rep in a single game. I’m not joking. It’s absolutely mind blowing how poor some of these people are at their jobs. It’s literally smoke and mirrors group think. Often there is no basis in reality.
Honestly, its just job justification for them. The NFL is so 24/7 almost every day of the year, the #1 sport. The Draft is a phenomenon. A whole cottage industry of kids with podcasts, etc. trying to make a living on YouTube/Twitter being NFL 'experts'. Everyone is the star of their own movie today in social media. The national media 'experts' know how to get clicks and views: hot takes. Outrageous garbage they don't even believe, but it moves the needle. Character actors and actresses playing roles to increase revenue for the sports machine. Mostly contrived and disingenuous. Then there are the liars: those that quote 'sources' that don't have sources. No way to fact check or verify the lying. The more dramatic, the more a good chunk of fans bite down hard.
Probably sounds like old man rant time by me, but its the truth.
I find the best approach is to follow 2 or 3 who have a proven track record & ignore the rest. Daniel Jerimiah is one. Another is the NFL Stock Exchange podcast which is owned by PFF.
How I do miss Joel Buchsbaum.
Buchsbaum was the best. And to think he did it all before the digital age with VHS tapes (and dozens of cans of cream of mushroom soup). Hey, show me that one throw. OK, give me a day and a half to find it.
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