Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ comet52 said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
Is this what you want? Or what you think will happen? The reason I ask is that I too think it's very likely the Vikings are one of the teams pushing Austin Jackson into the 1st round. I've explained why in other posts. And if I were to make a prediction I would say he's going to be one of our first round picks.
And I hope I'm wrong about that.
I don't like boom or bust offensive linemen. I get swinging for the fences with QBs, backs, receivers, pass rushers...you hit on one, they can change games for you. Not offensive linemen. To me, taking a project like AJ smacks of coaching arrogance: "Hey, we know he's a work in progress, his footwork is all over the place and he's wildly inconsistent, but we can fix him."
Maybe, but I suspect coaches thought the same about Ereck Flowers, Garett Bolles, TJ Clemmings, etc. When it comes to OLs, I'll take steady and consistent over gambling on upside every time.
If it were just me who thought this, that would be one thing, but some of the football people I respect the most also think Jackson is terribly overrated. Maybe they're all wrong. Maybe I'm wrong (I was wrong about O'Neill), but do we really want to invest a 1st round pick on a player about whom there is this much disagreement?
Its the latter and what I think will happen, not my preference. I laid it out above in my response to @ Tyr but they are going to find themselves between a rock and a hard place if 4-5 OTs are off the board before they pick. In a perfect world maybe that means Kinlaw makes it to them and they are happier with that. But if they're set on taking an OT it basically has to be in round 1 if they want any immediate contribution. The same could be said for DE too though. Cutting to the point, I think they're going to improve the trenches one way or another tonight.
Jackson specifically isn't perfect, but his pure LT traits are strong. He's much better than Flowers, Bolles, and Clemmings. He has balance and his lower body works with his upper half. Play technique and hand technique are his issues. Historically those two things are fixable while the other two are not. But there is risk with any O-lineman and some scouts would tell you its literally a coin flip no matter who the guy is.
I've talked to a dozen NFL personnel guys on Jackson. You're 100% correct that there is no consensus. But there is a group that live and die by the guy, one who is one of the best O-line evaluators league wide.
I like to look for the "why" in all players. For example, why was Stefon Diggs such a slug at Maryland? Because he had a terrible QB and he was often hurt. Why was such a great athlete with such a great motor like Neville Gallimore so unproductive at OU? Because he was playing nose in a 3-4 with ends no one respected, and so he was frequently double and triple teamed. What might he have looked like in 4-3 as an undertackle?
One of things that gives me hope about Jackson is that he had no offseason prior to 2019 due to his bone marrow thing. He wasn't able to even do squats until game 4. Could that explain the inconsistency? Maybe.
But as soon as I say that, I hear myself four years ago trying to talk myself into liking the Laquon Treadwell pick. Maybe the remarkable lack of juice or athleticism I saw in his tape was due to lingering issues from his leg injury? Nope.
If Jackson's the pick, I won't like it, but I'll assume the Vikings have done their homework on the "WHY."
Which begs the question, why didn't they do their homework on Treadwell? Woulda saved all involved a lotta grief.
In hindsight I think they ended up getting burned on their medical evaluation thinking his ankle/leg break wasn't healed and impacted his testing and would continue to progress. If you watch his film pre-injury he was much more explosive and smooth.
I have read similar speculation in the past and it seems reasonable. But it also looks like a case of the team going for need over bpa in addition to guessing wrong on the medical side. I realize that drafting isn't strictly one or the other regardless of rhetoric on the subject, but they do better when they just grab the best guy on their board and I'm doubtful that Tready was that guy at the time they took him. The idea that they "needed" a wideout was apparently internalized in the organization yet they already had Diggs and Theilan on the roster, albeit not the fully developed duo we've experienced over the last 3-4 years. I think they mostly do a good job drafting but occasionally they lead themselves astray when they go away from the fundamentals in favor of wants/needs.
Quote: @StickyBun said:
I'd love to see them draft a QB somewhere at some point in the Draft for the future. Take a swing at someone with upside. Jake Browning is not a dude that screams 'upside'.
By any NFL standard, Mannion stinks.
The Vikings approach of coddling the QB1 and actively avoiding anything even remotely resembling a competition at this position for the past 30 years hasn't won us enough.
I'd welcome almost any rookie QB with open arms.
If he can't play, it's nothing lost because neither can Mannion. If he can, maybe he lights a fire under Cousins, a la when KC drafted Mahomes and suddenly Alex Smith had the best year of his career.
This seems like a no-brainer, but I'm just a guy on a computer who watches football.
EDIT: I realize the "something lost" would be the opportunity cost of drafting a non-qb. I get it. But that would not deter me from taking a QB if there was one with upside on the board who I thought could beat out Mannion.
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
I’m not a fan of the OT pick with our first, but I get the desire. It can be so tough to find that guy unless you have a top 5 pick. With that said, Reiff is definitely good enough in my opinion to make the idea we need a LT in the first round a bit of a stretch. Especially if he’s the fourth or fifth off the board. He has a lot of good qualities, but in my opinion there will be far better options. What it comes down to for me is I have an inherent difference in philosophy to some GM’s. It’s always best player available and I’d never go away from that, because that’s exactly how you get burned. The only time you consider position is when you are picking between potential equals.
I like the rest of your mock. Hamler is a bit of a controversial pick, but a guy with his explosiveness can be a big help for an offense, even if he’s not getting the ball. That threat is a huge positive for an offense.
Great job as always Geoff!
Agree on OT in the first. Reiff is serviceable and still bait to get Trent Williams during and after the draft. I want to concentrate on the weakest part of the OL - interior and there is not a ton of top talent that we can't wait until the 3rd round for. I also want to concentrate on a 3T and like Elliott (Missouri) not sure if we can get him at 58...probably, not but I would move up for him. I really like Mims (WR) and J. Johnson at CB.
I like Johnson better then Gladney. I also am not a fan of Hamler and I attend a good amount of PSU games. He is electric but so small...like a Desean Jackson but even smaller. Jackson had a few good years but is always hurt because of his lack of size - IMO.
I do like both Pride and Van Jefferson.
Quote: @pattersaur said:
@ StickyBun said:
I'd love to see them draft a QB somewhere at some point in the Draft for the future. Take a swing at someone with upside. Jake Browning is not a dude that screams 'upside'.
By any NFL standard, Mannion stinks.
The Vikings approach of coddling the QB1 and actively avoiding anything even remotely resembling a competition at this position for the past 30 years hasn't won us enough.
I'd welcome almost any rookie QB with open arms.
If he can't play, it's nothing lost because neither can Mannion. If he can, maybe he lights a fire under Cousins, a la when KC drafted Mahomes and suddenly Alex Smith had the best year of his career.
This seems like a no-brainer, but I'm just a guy on a computer who watches football.
EDIT: I realize the "something lost" would be the opportunity cost of drafting a non-qb. I get it. But that would not deter me from taking a QB if there was one with upside on the board who I thought could beat out Mannion.
I really wish that the Vikings would have a philosophy of developing QBs, even if it were mid to late round guys, but they just seem to have no interest in it and instead go for weak backups like Mannion. I think part of it might be a cost-control measure where they want any QB they draft on a 5-year cost-controlled contract, but if we luck out and a mid to late round guys emerges, then it's still a lot cheaper than bringing in a FA like Cousins. I didn't even bother looking at QBs this year, because it feels like there's no way they will try to develop one, especially since they've started only carrying two on the roster.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
Austin Jackson: Isn't it funny how OTs from USC were long considered about as sure-fire as could be found in the NFL draft, from Ron Yary to Anthony Munoz, Tony Boselli, and Tyron Smith? But then came Matt Kalil. I think most of us are overly cautious about USC players thanks to Kalil. But I would welcome the pick. If Jackson was completely refined, he would be a top 10 pick. Unless we plan on some +10-loss seasons soon, we aren't going to draft a franchise LT who is a finished product. Jackson is NOT Matt Kalil, he seems to be a high character person who understands the NFL and will work to reach his potential.
WRs: Like Tyr, I like Van Jefferson more than KJ Hamler. You have mocked Hamler to the Vikings twice so maybe you know they are high on him, but of all the WR options you cited for this pick, I would prefer any of the others. Questionable hands, poor routes, great returner - Hamler seems like Cordarelle Patterson without the size.
James Lynch: He makes sense but begs the question: are the Vikings completely done with Jayln Holmes? This team can't seem to fill the 3T need by coaching up a mid-round pick (Holmes, Jaleel Johnson) so I don't know if it's worth expecting another pick in the same range to work out.
I haven't studied all your later picks thoroughly but appreciate all the possibilities. Question: with so many day 3 picks, wouldn't the Vikings like to add a RB? Maybe Mike Boone is better than I think but if we didn't have Cook for any length of time I would think pairing Mattison with another back would be important.
I agree that the Vikings have spent the past few years trying to develop mid-round DTs. Johnson is an OK rotational player, but not close to having starter level talent and Holmes never really materialized. Our need at DT has only become bigger, which is why I want to address it earlier in the draft. It's a weird DT class, so I get that the right player may not be there, but I also think that the best way to help the corners is to generate quick pressure up the middle. I don't feel too compelled to spend a first on a DE, since they have a better track record over the years at that position & we more need someone behind Hunter & Odenigbo that we can develop.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ Tyr said:
I always love seeing your take on the draft, though I'll admit that this draft scares me. There are some risky prospects in Jackson & Hamler and in general, it seems like filling out the roster with decent players but not adding any standout prospects, which our volume of needs might dictate. I'd feel better with a standout contributor on the DL or going after a potential impact receiver like Jefferson. - Jackson would be a divisive pick, especially at 22. I get that he's athletic, but I'd rather trade up for a better OT prospect or stick with Reiff for one more year and updgrade the interior line. I'd be similarly concerned about taking Cleveland. I'd much rather address WR, CB, DT, or DE here or trade up if they are deadset on taking an OT.
- I like the idea of moving down, since we have so many holes on the roster, Gladney is a group of a few similarly rated players, so I get it, even though I have corner fatigue from all the high picks they burned on CBs the past few years.
- The Hamler pick scares me. I get why people like him. He's an explosive player that can stretch the field, but he has a slight frame, inconsistent hands, & is questionable against physical coverage. He's someone that will need to line up in the slot & in an offense that runs so many heavy sets, I'd rather invest a second rounder on a guy who can be an every down player.
- Lynch wouldn't be my favorite pick, but he would address a critical need at 3T. How big of a concern are short arms for him?
- I like Van Jefferson way more than Hamler. He's a high floor guy that would give us something opposite of Thielen and after Thielen's hamstring issues last year & with no Diggs to carry the offense, we need depth at WR. I do think that doubling up at WR would be a wise move, since no one player can replace Diggs.
- What do you think of Reggie Robinson compared to Troy Pride? I like the idea of doubling up on corner, though I'd prefer to add a slot guy, unless the plan is to play Hughes in the slot and hope his neck holds up.
- As for the day three picks, I get gambling on athelticism at LB & I'd love to see them move on from Gedeon. JR Reed would be a cool pick, since we need depth at S & the family connection is a cool story. Adding depth at G is good, though I'd rather address it rounds 1-3. Finding someone to take over Kearse's role as big nickel safety seems smart. I would also greatly prefer to address DE in rounds 1-4. We don't need an instant starter, but we need another pass rusher for depth if nothing else.
I don't think this draft will be many's favorite. But looking at the Vikings off-season moves thus far, they want to compete now but are clearly attempting to take one step backwards to take two steps forward. This draft does that by adding more long-term pieces but a few short-term moves, like Jefferson, to help in the interim.
Two thoughts.
1. At 22/25 I think O-Line & D-line is an "OR" proposition. If there is an extreme run on OTs they'll need to take Jackson/Cleveland or wait until next year since there aren't many mid-round contributors. They could potentially pivot to guard. Alternatively if they pass on an OT they could go Gross-Matos. People will say they won't take a round 1 D-lineman but there has been a lot of steam connecting him here. He would be an excellent pick. Look at picks 22/89. I went Jackson/Lynch. You could easily see Gross-Matos/Bartch too.
2. On your player questions, I would disagree on Hamler struggling against physical corners. He is the one WR in the Big Ten that consistently got separation from Okudah last season. He isn't my favorite WR prospect but adding speed is the real key. Otherwise someone like Pittman Jr. makes some sense. At CB Reggie Robinson is a draft crush of mine but won't be able to start immediately. His ceiling in year 2+ plus is huge but in the Vikings situation it may mean you need to draft a 3rd CB. Lynch's arms aren't too concerning if you play him inside. They would be more of an issue on the outside.
Sometimes the right player just ins't there and with so many needs on the roster, I'd rather address other positions where they can get better talent. I guess the other part of it, is their opinion on Reiff. My opinion on him is that he's not ideal, but capable of holding the fort for one more year if guard is improved. Also, isn't the hand issue with Jackson that he gets his hands too far outside, which is supposed to be a harder issue to fix?
As for Gross-Matos, I'm leery of spending a 1st rounder on a DE. They've done an excellent job with mid round DEs (depending on whether you count Holmes as a DE or DT) and I do think Odenigbo has earned a chance to start. I just want to have another DE developing behind him for depth and insurance. Are there any 3rd/4th rounde DEs that you like as a project? Also, what do you think of Chaisson, his name hasn't come up a lot here.
We'll see on Hamler. I get the idea of wanting someone who can make explosive plays, but I think that need is better addressed with someone who can be an every down player. Hamler is just a hard sell for me, especially given that the Vikings will be running 12 personnel a lot and will likely line up Irv Smith in the slot. Who are some other WRs that you think would explosive plays? The receiver who scares me most is Shenault. He's a little too much like Patterson for me and after Patterson and Harvin, I strongly favor receivers who are strong route runners.
I have no issues with this Draft except I'm not taking a Corner in the 2nd who's going to sit in Zone Coverage 80% of the time.
'But they only played Zone because their CBs sucked'. And adding a 2nd Round Rookie is somehow going to magically allow Zimmer to go back to playing Man? Bullshit. Hughes gets consistently overmatched by bigger WRs on the Outside. Hill is a better prospect for playing Man. At least he has the athletic profile to try it.
So now you have Gladney to teach up as Man Coverage CB AND you have to 'deprogram' Hughes and Hill from all the Zone they were taught to play the last 1+. That's right. The Vikings didn't just mystically start playing a lot more Zone last year. They actually started before that. In direct response to the Rams game and how much Spread, Misdirection, and Rub Routes teams were using to light up the scoreboard. Let's put this notion that shifting to primarily Zone just happened last year to cover for Rhodes sucking. Cuz it's factually inaccurate.
Even if Mike did want to go back to Man why would he hire a CB Coach that has always been a Cover 3 guy? Capers is also a Cover 3 guy. Makes zero sense to ask a Cover 3 Coach to teach your youngsters how to play Man.
Which is why I can't get behind the Gladney pick. Hughes was a 1st. Hill should have been a 3rd. They're going to sit in Zone 80% of the time. I get needing more talent in the CB Room. Get it in the 3rd with Arnette or Pride and bring in a Veteran to help with the growing pains.
Where Geoff took Gladney is where I'm guessing one of Blacklock, Madubuike and Gallimore end up. Michael Pierce alone does not automatically fix the Vikings Rush Defense. He will play better than LJ did the last two years, but will likely never equal prime Joseph. And he's not a sure thing to play full time snaps.
Shamar Stephen stinks. He's barely average against the run, can't rush the QB a lick. Get some talent next to Hunter. Let the kid rotate with Watts. Kick Holmes outside or cut him. Herc is still a lottery ticket.
For those not named Geoff, have you watched Austin Jackson versus Epenesa? Every isolated play? I have. He held his own against arguably the best DE in this Draft. Coming off of no offseason. Did he get beat? Yep. Did he shut Epenesa down for long stretches? Yep. This kid has 1 thing in common with Kalil, and that's USC. He's raw. Needs to grow.
Guess what? So does the rest of the team. No Draft in the history of the League replaced 7 lost Starters and 2 lost heavy rotation guys (I lumped Sendejo and Keaese into 1 contributor). Factor in the truncated offseason, if there even is one or a season at all, and you're looking at new Starters, some already on the team and the rest Rookies, basically getting thrown to the wolves. This team is indeed taking a step back to take two forward, whether the vast majority of you like it or not. Which is why they can afford to take raw players that they can grow.
Here is my question. If Zimmer and Spielman are on a short leash, and they need to have a strong showing in 2020 to retain their jobs, how many 2-3 year development guys are they willing to gamble their futures on?They've gone all in on Cousins and need to win now while they have him. If we miss the playoffs this year, Zimmer could be shown the door. They need to plug holes with starters and major contributors for this season. I don't think they have the luxury to draft projects with big upside vs. proven production at the college level.
If they can land Williams in a trade without giving up any picks for this year, I'd feel a lot more comfortable filling the rest of our needs through the draft and the leftover Free Agents available.
Anyone who wants Austin Jackson at #22 needs to watch/rewatch the Holiday Bowl where AJ Epanesa (lousy 40 time and all) kicked his ass all game long. There won't be runs at OT, WR, and CB all by pick 22, so take the highest ranking player left at any of those 3 positions at 22. It won't be Jackson.
Slightly surprised at not even a late-round flier on a developmental QB. I know Kirk's been durable, but with pile of #2 Mannion at #2 if Kirk so much as turns an ankle we're 0-until he's back.
Quote: @RS Express said:
Anyone who wants Austin Jackson at #22 needs to watch/rewatch the Holiday Bowl where AJ Epanesa (lousy 40 time and all) kicked his ass all game long. There won't be runs at OT, WR, and CB all by pick 22, so take the highest ranking player left at any of those 3 positions at 22. It won't be Jackson.
Slightly surprised at not even a late-round flier on a developmental QB. I know Kirk's been durable, but with pile of #2 Mannion at #2 if Kirk so much as turns an ankle we're 0-until he's back.
Rewatch that game. Did Epenesa beat him from time to time? Yes. But it is not the bloodbath the media made it out to be. Jackson shut him down for long stretches.
|
