NFLDG Mock Draft - The Finale

[NFL Draft Guru]

Another NFL draft has arrived, this year feeling much different than years past. Every off-season the gap between free agency (mid-March) and the draft feels unsurmountable. This year the time seemed to fly by with everything outside of sports and the NFL being put into perspective by COVID-19. I really hope you are all doing well, staying healthy, and finding some optimism in these tough times. I have once again appreciated all of the engagement in these mock draft threads and hope you appreciate the approach I think the Vikings will take this weekend. 

1 (22) - Austin Jackson (OT/USC): How the Vikings approach pick #22 will depend greatly on how the draft board falls early. With an anticipated run on OT's the Vikings will likely be left choosing between two athletic tackle options in Austin Jackson or Ezra Cleveland. In a world where both are off the board by pick #22, which I think is an outside possibility, the Vikings may lean toward taking a D-lineman to improve the trenches on one side of the ball. As a player, Jackson has the potential to end up being the most "complete" LT in the class. Although he is technically raw in some areas and lacks elite play strength he does put it all together at times on film. Early on the Vikings should be able to protect Jackson with his athleticism in their zone scheme. This move bumps Riley Reiff into LG and allows the Vikings to keep Brian O'Neill at RT. The best news is the Vikings walk away with maybe the most athletic set of OT's in the NFL. 

2 (34) via IND - Jeff Gladney (CB / TCU): I think the likelihood of MN trading back off one of their 1st round picks is extrememly high. But to do so they will need to find a willing trade partner. The Colts who may want to move up for a QB are a logical choice in this mock. They are also in a unique position with two 2nd round selections allowing MN to trade 1(25) & 2(58) for 2(34), 2(44), and 5(160). For a QB this would be a win-win for the Colts while better positioning the Vikings come day 2. There is no doubt in my mind that one of Jaylon Johnson, Jeff Gladney, or Kristian Fulton will fall to the top of round 2. With no specific preference the Vikings end up with Gladney in this scenario. Gladney is a slightly lesser version of Jaire Alexander. He is a pitbull on the field and is a complete nuisance to whoever he plays against. In the NFL scouts can't decide if they prefer him on the outside or in the slot but will get the chance to compete for both roles in MN. He'll have to learn to play better without his hands on the receiver but brings an attitude and toughness to the CB room, something that is an underrated need on this defense. 

2 (44) via IND - K.J. Hamler (WR / Penn State): By moving up in round 2 the Vikings position themselves to grab one of Reagor, Aiyuk, Hamler, or Mims (unexpected drop?). It is no secret that the Vikings lost their ability to take the top off the defense when trading Stefon Diggs to the Bills. Bringing back the ability to stretch the field both vertically and horizontally is the thought here. Although Hamler is not a natural pass catcher he is electric with the ball in his hands and offers additional value in the return game. Although better situated in the slot, Hamler is the rare athlete who can extend the field vertically from the inside. There is some development that will need to happen for this pick to pay off but the payoff could be massive in time. 

3 (89) - James Lynch (DT / Baylor): It will be very interesting to see how the Vikings prioritize DE and DT this weekend. In this mock the value on the board dictated taking an interior difference maker. James Lynch is a much better athlete than most give him credit for. He doesn't blow you away on film but there are times you ask yourself, how did he get to the QB so quickly? Aside from winning with twitch/speed alone he is a tenacious player who will compete all game long. The Vikings brought in Michael Pierce as a true NT and Shamar Stephen will compete for a roster spot. After that the Vikings have a slew of different flavors but no pass rusher locked into a role. With Ifeadi Odenigbo playing primarily on the outside Lynch can split time with Stephen in year one to bring some additional juice to push the pocket.

3 (101) via SEA - Van Jefferson (WR / Florida): To take advantage of the board the Vikings trade picks 4 (132) & 5 (155) to gain an additional pick on day 2 of the draft. Van Jefferson is one of the most refined WRs in this years draft class. I guess that is the outcome when your dad is one of the best WR coaches in the league. Jefferson bring elite route running and underrated speed to an offense. He also will be able to me a contributor immediately. Although his ceiling is limited and he's more of a finished product at age 24, he's the higher floor compliment to a more boom/bust pick in Hamler. 

3 (105) Troy Pride Jr. (CB / Notre Dame): The Vikings quickly dip back into the DB pool to fill another opening in the CB room. Troy Pride Jr is very similar to Trae Waynes as a prospect coming out of Michigan State. Minus some of the top-end athleticism of course. Troy is best in off coverage but can play man and struggles coming downhill to finish on tackles. Sound like Trae Waynes? Although he isn't a perfect prospect he can come in and offer valuable competition to Holton Hill, Marcus Sayles, and Kris Boyd. His flaws are also areas Zimmer and the Vikings coaching staff have succeeded with past players. With another CB in the mix the Vikings can at least feel comfortable they don't have a glaring hole at the position.  

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5 (160) via IND - Davion Taylor (LB / Colorado): With Eric Wilson playing out his RFA tender and Ben Gedeon on the backside of his rookie deal, the team needs to at least be thinking about their future at LB. Davion Davis is a raw LB who has high-end potential due to his athleticism and sideline to sideline play. Coming to Colorado as a JUCO transfer, he simply needs more snaps/time to fully develop. Although he won't be an immediate starter he should be a special teams ace from day one. In 2021 if the Vikings opt to not retain Eric Wilson long-term they'll have a cheaper alternative in-house without missing a beat. 

6 (201) - J.R. Reed (S / Georgia): At some point in this draft there has to be a MN connection right? Well, here it is. J.R. Reed won't be asked to compete with Smith/Harris but has played enough snaps in the SEC to slide in if needed due to injury. There is some upside here too if the Vikings continue to play predominately zone moving forward. Anthony Harris is currently playing out his one year franchise tag so adding some insurance would not hurt. Like Taylor above, Reed should contribute on special teams immediately adding value to his potential spot on the roster. 

6 (205) - Kevin Dotson (OG / Louisiana): Dotson is a guy who may end up surprising some fans and media over the weekend. There is a chance he may go much higher than this. Although he is a prototypical phone booth OG he has the ability to play in a zone based scheme. He doesn't win with athleticism but simply takes less steps to reach his landmarks. Dotson was a strong starter at RG for the Ragin' Cajuns and can provide depth behind Elflein and Samia. I wouldn't necessarily rule him out of competing for the starting spot either.

7 (239) - Shyheim Carter (S / Alabama): Although I list Carter as a safety here, he is a defensive chess piece. At Alabama Carter subbed in as a jumbo nickel LB and should play the same role in the NFL. The Vikings are going to miss Jayron Kearse' positional flexibility and better find a replacement sooner than later. 

7 (249) - Dalton Keene (TE / Virginia Tech): Similar to Carter, I list Keene as a TE but he is really more of a chess piece on the offensive side of the ball. Keene is just an overall solid FB player who can catch, block, and line up in multiple alignments. With the Vikings running so many heavy personnel sets, having a guy you can align at H-Back, TE, or FB has value.

7 (243) - James Smith-Williams (DE / NC State): To finish off the draft class the Vikings take an athletic DE who lacks pass rushing polish and a rush plan, two coachable skills. Ideally the Vikings will bring in a DE earlier but they could also approach a solution in FA after the draft as well. Smith-Williams should be able to develop throughout camp and in time could be a rotational pass rush threat. But more likely than no he spends his rookie season on the practice squad. 

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I always love seeing your take on the draft, though I'll admit that this draft scares me. There are some risky prospects in Jackson & Hamler and in general, it seems like filling out the roster with decent players but not adding any standout prospects, which our volume of needs might dictate. I'd feel better with a standout contributor on the DL or going after a potential impact receiver like Jefferson.

• Jackson would be a divisive pick, especially at 22. I get that he's athletic, but I'd rather trade up for a better OT prospect or stick with Reiff for one more year and updgrade the interior line. I'd be similarly concerned about taking Cleveland. I'd much rather address WR, CB, DT, or DE here or trade up if they are deadset on taking an OT.
• I like the idea of moving down, since we have so many holes on the roster, Gladney is a group of a few similarly rated players, so I get it, even though I have corner fatigue from all the high picks they burned on CBs the past few years.
• The Hamler pick scares me. I get why people like him. He's an explosive player that can stretch the field, but he has a slight frame, inconsistent hands, & is questionable against physical coverage. He's someone that will need to line up in the slot & in an offense that runs so many heavy sets, I'd rather invest a second rounder on a guy who can be an every down player.
• Lynch wouldn't be my favorite pick, but he would address a critical need at 3T. How big of a concern are short arms for him?
• I like Van Jefferson way more than Hamler. He's a high floor guy that would give us something opposite of Thielen and after Thielen's hamstring issues last year & with no Diggs to carry the offense, we need depth at WR. I do think that doubling up at WR would be a wise move, since no one player can replace Diggs.
• What do you think of Reggie Robinson compared to Troy Pride? I like the idea of doubling up on corner, though I'd prefer to add a slot guy, unless the plan is to play Hughes in the slot and hope his neck holds up.
• As for the day three picks, I get gambling on athelticism at LB & I'd love to see them move on from Gedeon. JR Reed would be a cool pick, since we need depth at S & the family connection is a cool story. Adding depth at G is good, though I'd rather address it rounds 1-3. Finding someone to take over Kearse's role as big nickel safety seems smart. I would also greatly prefer to address DE in rounds 1-4. We don't need an instant starter, but we need another pass rusher for depth if nothing else.

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The last prospect I wanted us to have no part of as strongly Jackson was Chad Greenway...so, if we got a ten year solid but unspectacular years out of him...I'm in...

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If Love is on the board, I think we can hold them up and get 34 and 44 without giving up 58. That's my personal wet dream for the last five weeks.

Love Carter for the same reasons. Any draft with Van Jefferson is in my wheelhouse. I've almost picked Keene a half dozen times in sims...

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@Tyr said:
I always love seeing your take on the draft, though I'll admit that this draft scares me. There are some risky prospects in Jackson & Hamler and in general, it seems like filling out the roster with decent players but not adding any standout prospects, which our volume of needs might dictate. I'd feel better with a standout contributor on the DL or going after a potential impact receiver like Jefferson.

• Jackson would be a divisive pick, especially at 22. I get that he's athletic, but I'd rather trade up for a better OT prospect or stick with Reiff for one more year and updgrade the interior line. I'd be similarly concerned about taking Cleveland. I'd much rather address WR, CB, DT, or DE here or trade up if they are deadset on taking an OT.
• I like the idea of moving down, since we have so many holes on the roster, Gladney is a group of a few similarly rated players, so I get it, even though I have corner fatigue from all the high picks they burned on CBs the past few years.
• The Hamler pick scares me. I get why people like him. He's an explosive player that can stretch the field, but he has a slight frame, inconsistent hands, & is questionable against physical coverage. He's someone that will need to line up in the slot & in an offense that runs so many heavy sets, I'd rather invest a second rounder on a guy who can be an every down player.
• Lynch wouldn't be my favorite pick, but he would address a critical need at 3T. How big of a concern are short arms for him?
• I like Van Jefferson way more than Hamler. He's a high floor guy that would give us something opposite of Thielen and after Thielen's hamstring issues last year & with no Diggs to carry the offense, we need depth at WR. I do think that doubling up at WR would be a wise move, since no one player can replace Diggs.
• What do you think of Reggie Robinson compared to Troy Pride? I like the idea of doubling up on corner, though I'd prefer to add a slot guy, unless the plan is to play Hughes in the slot and hope his neck holds up.
• As for the day three picks, I get gambling on athelticism at LB & I'd love to see them move on from Gedeon. JR Reed would be a cool pick, since we need depth at S & the family connection is a cool story. Adding depth at G is good, though I'd rather address it rounds 1-3. Finding someone to take over Kearse's role as big nickel safety seems smart. I would also greatly prefer to address DE in rounds 1-4. We don't need an instant starter, but we need another pass rusher for depth if nothing else.

I don't think this draft will be many's favorite. But looking at the Vikings off-season moves thus far, they want to compete now but are clearly attempting to take one step backwards to take two steps forward. This draft does that by adding more long-term pieces but a few short-term moves, like Jefferson, to help in the interim. 

Two thoughts. 

1. At 22/25 I think O-Line & D-line is an "OR" proposition. If there is an extreme run on OTs they'll need to take Jackson/Cleveland or wait until next year since there aren't many mid-round contributors. They could potentially pivot to guard. Alternatively if they pass on an OT they could go Gross-Matos. People will say they won't take a round 1 D-lineman but there has been a lot of steam connecting him here. He would be an excellent pick. Look at picks 22/89. I went Jackson/Lynch. You could easily see Gross-Matos/Bartch too. 

2. On your player questions, I would disagree on Hamler struggling against physical corners. He is the one WR in the Big Ten that consistently got separation from Okudah last season. He isn't my favorite WR prospect but adding speed is the real key. Otherwise someone like Pittman Jr. makes some sense. At CB Reggie Robinson is a draft crush of mine but won't be able to start immediately. His ceiling in year 2+ plus is huge but in the Vikings situation it may mean you need to draft a 3rd CB. Lynch's arms aren't too concerning if you play him inside. They would be more of an issue on the outside. 

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@"BarrNone55" said:
The last prospect I wanted us to have no part of as strongly Jackson was Chad Greenway...so, if we got a ten year solid but unspectacular years out of him...I'm in...

@"BarrNone55" said:
If Love is on the board, I think we can hold them up and get 34 and 44 without giving up 58. That's my personal wet dream for the last five weeks.

Love Carter for the same reasons. Any draft with Van Jefferson is in my wheelhouse. I've almost picked Keene a half dozen times in sims...

I initially wasn't into Jackson too much but once you watch enough you realize the traits are just as good as anyone else in this draft class. But compared to say Andrew Thomas, there is just some assembly required here. The good news is most athletic guys fail due to poor balance and then inability to sync up their feet and upper body. He does do those things rather well. 

Jordan Love's draft slot will end up being something to watch as the board unfolds tonight. MN may get more traction on #22 if teams want to come up for a QB to get ahead of NE & NO. I'm not convinced they would trade that pick unless it were an overpay. If not for Love I also see both picks marketable if either Murray or Queen fall down the board. 

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Is this what you want? Or what you think will happen? The reason I ask is that I too think it's very likely the Vikings are one of the teams pushing Austin Jackson into the 1st round. I've explained why in other posts. And if I were to make a prediction I would say he's going to be one of our first round picks.

And I hope I'm wrong about that.

I don't like boom or bust offensive linemen. I get swinging for the fences with QBs, backs, receivers, pass rushers...you hit on one, they can change games for you. Not offensive linemen. To me, taking a project like AJ smacks of coaching arrogance: "Hey, we know he's a work in progress, his footwork is all over the place, he's soft, timid and wildly inconsistent, but we can fix him."

Maybe, but I suspect coaches thought the same about Ereck Flowers, Garett Bolles, TJ Clemmings, etc. When it comes to OLs, I'll take steady and consistent over gambling on upside every time. 

If it were just me who thought this, that would be one thing, but some of the football people I respect the most also think Jackson is terribly overrated.  Maybe they're all wrong. Maybe I'm wrong (I was wrong about O'Neill), but do we really want to invest a 1st round pick on a player about whom there is this much disagreement? 

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@MaroonBells said:
Is this what you want? Or what you think will happen? The reason I ask is that I too think it's very likely the Vikings are one of the teams pushing Austin Jackson into the 1st round. I've explained why in other posts. And if I were to make a prediction I would say he's going to be one of our first round picks.

And I hope I'm wrong about that.

I don't like boom or bust offensive linemen. I get swinging for the fences with QBs, backs, receivers, pass rushers...you hit on one, they can change games for you. Not offensive linemen. To me, taking a project like AJ smacks of coaching arrogance: "Hey, we know he's a work in progress, his footwork is all over the place and he's wildly inconsistent, but we can fix him."

Maybe, but I suspect coaches thought the same about Ereck Flowers, Garett Bolles, TJ Clemmings, etc. When it comes to OLs, I'll take steady and consistent over gambling on upside every time. 

If it were just me who thought this, that would be one thing, but some of the football people I respect the most also think Jackson is terribly overrated.  Maybe they're all wrong. Maybe I'm wrong (I was wrong about O'Neill), but do we really want to invest a 1st round pick on a player about whom there is this much disagreement? 

Its the latter and what I think will happen, not my preference. I laid it out above in my response to @Tyr but they are going to find themselves between a rock and a hard place if 4-5 OTs are off the board before they pick. In a perfect world maybe that means Kinlaw makes it to them and they are happier with that. But if they're set on taking an OT it basically has to be in round 1 if they want any immediate contribution. The same could be said for DE too though. Cutting to the point, I think they're going to improve the trenches one way or another tonight. 

Jackson specifically isn't perfect, but his pure LT traits are strong. He's much better than Flowers, Bolles, and Clemmings. He has balance and his lower body works with his upper half. Play technique and hand technique are his issues. Historically those two things are fixable while the other two are not. But there is risk with any O-lineman and some scouts would tell you its literally a coin flip no matter who the guy is. 

I've talked to a dozen NFL personnel guys on Jackson. You're 100% correct that there is no consensus. But there is a group that live and die by the guy, one who is one of the best O-line evaluators league wide. 

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I'd love to see them draft a QB somewhere at some point in the Draft for the future. Take a swing at someone with upside. Jake Browning is not a dude that screams 'upside'.