Not referring to anything else in Tim's presser, but it really did bother me that he/they are looking at the 'run' of the virus in absolutes using the "math" of outbreaks in other areas; NYC, Italy, etc. He used the words "WOULD HAVE" in reference to numbers about twenty times, i.e., 'We Would have had 6,000 infections now if we didn't close bars and restaurants.' I just think it's a whole lot of COULD HAVES. Yes, there probably would have been many more, but it's still a whole lot of guessing...
He also speaks like it's a definite that we're going to have all these infections and they just want to delay the spread until we're ready. Nobody at any level seems to know how the virus is going to sustain itself so it sounded a little odd to say that all these people are going to get hospital level infections of it a month or so down the road.
I felt like they are trying to learn from the states that are seeing the high rates and trying to get ahead of it any way they can. If this is what it takes so be it. It's important to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. He highlighted the number of ICU hospital beds and that is a scary low number. Kudos to 3M and Medtronic for stepping up with masks and ventilators. It's better to be on the other side of the woulda, coulda, shoulda though. Obviously there is a population difference between Minnesota and other states but taking action is important. There has only been 1 dramatic spike in numbers for Minnesota. Looking out for health and safety is the number one priority.
Quote: @Vikergirl said:
I felt like they are trying to learn from the states that are seeing the high rates and trying to get ahead of it any way they can. If this is what it takes so be it. It's important to prevent the hospitals from being overwhelmed. He highlighted the number of ICU hospital beds and that is a scary low number.
I've heard/read in a few places that his icu bed number is old and it's now more than 1k. One article from today on the KSTP site has a map indicating that Hennepin County alone now has 311. What do we have in hospital as of today, 25?
The Mayo Clinic Hospital — Rochester, Saint Marys Campus has 1,265 licensed beds and 64 operating rooms. [2][3] In 2008, there were 63,000 admissions as well as 28,000 surgical cases that took place in the hospital. [11] The Mayo Clinic Psychiatry and Psychology Treatment Center in the Generose Building is also part of the campus. St. Marys Hospital campus includes the nation's largest intensive care unit which includes about 200 ICU beds and 200 "step-down" ICU beds.[12]
Quote: @CLOBIMON said:
Not referring to anything else in Tim's presser, but it really did bother me that he/they are looking at the 'run' of the virus in absolutes using the "math" of outbreaks in other areas; NYC, Italy, etc. He used the words "WOULD HAVE" in reference to numbers about twenty times, i.e., 'We Would have had 6,000 infections now if we didn't close bars and restaurants.' I just think it's a whole lot of COULD HAVES. Yes, there probably would have been many more, but it's still a whole lot of guessing...
He also speaks like it's a definite that we're going to have all these infections and they just want to delay the spread until we're ready. Nobody at any level seems to know how the virus is going to sustain itself so it sounded a little odd to say that all these people are going to get hospital level infections of it a month or so down the road.
I cant speak for the gov, but I can speak as someone who did Marketing Research for a living for 30 years...And I dont mean for this to sound professorial if it comes across that way 
This gov is an analytics guy and relies heavily on data to make decisions. In this case it means data we know from historical, coupled with modeling predictive results, which as we know are as good as the inputs, weightings and calculations being run.
But he has confidence making decisions based on that math. Do you use what we know, have seen and extrapolate that on a forward basis or...Do what? Will COVID behavior change significantly in the next 2 weeks? Or will it mimic (to some degree) what we've see elsewhere?
Where do you place the bet with so much at stake?
On the surface, it sounds like the U of M modelers worked to tweak the models so that it is more reflective of our demographic and other variables. But there is a hell of a lot more to it than that.
Bottom line is (as you stated) they want to move the curve out (its to late to bend it which is sobering) and in theory allow additional infrastructure to be built to try and minimize death and dying as the contagion spreads.
Without any real therapeutic or prophylactic about to get introduced in mass scale, I might have done the same if my name was Gov.
I've attached an article from the WSJ as of 03/24/2020 by 2 doctors. Hope it attaches OK.
Italy reports 683 more coronavirus deaths: Live updates
The death toll in Italy rose to 7,503, with 74,386 infections, as Spain's death toll surpassed China's.
Italy has reported 683 new deaths in the coronavirus pandemic, bringing the total to 7,503 as the confirmed cases rose to 74,386, appearing to level off but not dropping dramatically from previous days.
The hardest-hit northern region of Lombardy reported a sharp fall in the number of deaths compared with the day before, but remained in a critical situation, with a total of 4,474 deaths and 32,346 cases.
Spain, meanwhile, has recorded more than 700 deaths over the past 24 hours, surpassing China in the total death toll, making the country now second to only Italy.
|
