Jeremiah Mock Draft 3.0

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@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@mgobluevikes said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@Wetlander said:

@AGRforever said:

Are the QB's just not that good this year?  I know everyone says weak class.  The highlight reels certainly don't say terrible.  We have 7ish QB needy teams ahead of us and they're ALL going to pass on either Willis or Pickett, and/or no one is going to trade up for one of them?
Honestly if both QBs are on the board, why not get our future QB?  But end of the day, someone is trading up. 

I don't think any of the top prospects in this draft class would be ranked ahead of last year's class of Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, and Jones.

Rookie QBs are always in demand these days and get overdrafted, but I'd be leery of taking any of the guys in the first 20 picks.  Willis has intriguing upside, but he if came out last year...  I would have taken Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Mac Jones, and Fields ahead of him.

I know I told you Willis would be behind Jones but I think maybe the consensus in the league may be moving. I think Willis may be behind Fields but ahead of Jones at this point. Pickett would still be behind Jones. The issue with Mac Jones is he lacks elite upside. Good QB, but can he be great? Willis has a lot of risks but the upside is similar to Josh Allen. 

If you have to hope that accuracy will suddenly show up when he's making millions, it's a fool's bet. Barely over 60% in completions, under 100 in QBR and having thrown double digit int's, (twice as many as the year before). That's simply not a 1st rd. grade in any draft.   

It all comes down to why he is inaccurate. There are guys who simply can't anticipate where they need to get the ball, that is a problem you can't fix. Then there are mechanical deficiencies that lead to inaccurate passes. That is fixable, some of the time. In my opinion Willis' inaccuracy is two-fold. First, his footwork is inconsistent and he'll often arm the ball to his target(s). Its just not a consistent way to get the ball to your received. The second is that he doesn't throw with great tempo. He'll throw the 5 yard out as hard as he thrown the 40 yard bomb. It just naturally leads to a lot of drops. 

What I will saw about Malik is that he's naturally an accurate passer. Once he is moving in the pocket and throwing on the move, the ball is on the money. So it really proves its more of a mechanical issue in the pocket. With good coaching you would hope that would get better. But with that said if he can keep his completion rates in the mid 60%s in the NFL he will be just fine. 

My bigger worry with Malik is if he can consistently throw with touch on the boundaries. He'll need to do that to make it in the NFL and when he had to do it against Ole Miss it was a mess. 

There's QB's coming into the league every year with what is to believed to be legit rd. 1 talent, with far fewer known issues, who can't make the next step. For Willis to elevate his passing completion rate by 5%-6% going from the ASUN conference to NFL is a huge ask when he'll likely come into the league as a #2 getting limited reps. 

I guess I can see him being selected towards at the lower half of rd. 1 only as a reaction to how weak this year's crop actually is and the panic/overvaluing of the position.

[Guest]

@mgobluevikes said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@mgobluevikes said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@Wetlander said:

@AGRforever said:

Are the QB's just not that good this year?  I know everyone says weak class.  The highlight reels certainly don't say terrible.  We have 7ish QB needy teams ahead of us and they're ALL going to pass on either Willis or Pickett, and/or no one is going to trade up for one of them?
Honestly if both QBs are on the board, why not get our future QB?  But end of the day, someone is trading up. 

I don't think any of the top prospects in this draft class would be ranked ahead of last year's class of Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, and Jones.

Rookie QBs are always in demand these days and get overdrafted, but I'd be leery of taking any of the guys in the first 20 picks.  Willis has intriguing upside, but he if came out last year...  I would have taken Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Mac Jones, and Fields ahead of him.

I know I told you Willis would be behind Jones but I think maybe the consensus in the league may be moving. I think Willis may be behind Fields but ahead of Jones at this point. Pickett would still be behind Jones. The issue with Mac Jones is he lacks elite upside. Good QB, but can he be great? Willis has a lot of risks but the upside is similar to Josh Allen. 

If you have to hope that accuracy will suddenly show up when he's making millions, it's a fool's bet. Barely over 60% in completions, under 100 in QBR and having thrown double digit int's, (twice as many as the year before). That's simply not a 1st rd. grade in any draft.   

It all comes down to why he is inaccurate. There are guys who simply can't anticipate where they need to get the ball, that is a problem you can't fix. Then there are mechanical deficiencies that lead to inaccurate passes. That is fixable, some of the time. In my opinion Willis' inaccuracy is two-fold. First, his footwork is inconsistent and he'll often arm the ball to his target(s). Its just not a consistent way to get the ball to your received. The second is that he doesn't throw with great tempo. He'll throw the 5 yard out as hard as he thrown the 40 yard bomb. It just naturally leads to a lot of drops. 

What I will saw about Malik is that he's naturally an accurate passer. Once he is moving in the pocket and throwing on the move, the ball is on the money. So it really proves its more of a mechanical issue in the pocket. With good coaching you would hope that would get better. But with that said if he can keep his completion rates in the mid 60%s in the NFL he will be just fine. 

My bigger worry with Malik is if he can consistently throw with touch on the boundaries. He'll need to do that to make it in the NFL and when he had to do it against Ole Miss it was a mess. 

There's QB's coming into the league every year with what is to believed to be legit rd. 1 talent, with far fewer known issues, who can't make the next step. For Willis to elevate his passing completion rate by 5%-6% going from the ASUN conference to NFL is a huge ask when he'll likely come into the league as a #2 getting limited reps. 

I guess I can see him being selected towards at the lower half of rd. 1 only as a reaction to how weak this year's crop actually is and the panic/overvaluing of the position.

One big exception for a QB who increased their completion percentage in a big way from college to the NFL:

[Guest]

@StickyBun said:

@mgobluevikes said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@mgobluevikes said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@Wetlander said:

@AGRforever said:

Are the QB's just not that good this year?  I know everyone says weak class.  The highlight reels certainly don't say terrible.  We have 7ish QB needy teams ahead of us and they're ALL going to pass on either Willis or Pickett, and/or no one is going to trade up for one of them?
Honestly if both QBs are on the board, why not get our future QB?  But end of the day, someone is trading up. 

I don't think any of the top prospects in this draft class would be ranked ahead of last year's class of Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Fields, and Jones.

Rookie QBs are always in demand these days and get overdrafted, but I'd be leery of taking any of the guys in the first 20 picks.  Willis has intriguing upside, but he if came out last year...  I would have taken Lawrence, Wilson, Lance, Mac Jones, and Fields ahead of him.

I know I told you Willis would be behind Jones but I think maybe the consensus in the league may be moving. I think Willis may be behind Fields but ahead of Jones at this point. Pickett would still be behind Jones. The issue with Mac Jones is he lacks elite upside. Good QB, but can he be great? Willis has a lot of risks but the upside is similar to Josh Allen. 

If you have to hope that accuracy will suddenly show up when he's making millions, it's a fool's bet. Barely over 60% in completions, under 100 in QBR and having thrown double digit int's, (twice as many as the year before). That's simply not a 1st rd. grade in any draft.   

It all comes down to why he is inaccurate. There are guys who simply can't anticipate where they need to get the ball, that is a problem you can't fix. Then there are mechanical deficiencies that lead to inaccurate passes. That is fixable, some of the time. In my opinion Willis' inaccuracy is two-fold. First, his footwork is inconsistent and he'll often arm the ball to his target(s). Its just not a consistent way to get the ball to your received. The second is that he doesn't throw with great tempo. He'll throw the 5 yard out as hard as he thrown the 40 yard bomb. It just naturally leads to a lot of drops. 

What I will saw about Malik is that he's naturally an accurate passer. Once he is moving in the pocket and throwing on the move, the ball is on the money. So it really proves its more of a mechanical issue in the pocket. With good coaching you would hope that would get better. But with that said if he can keep his completion rates in the mid 60%s in the NFL he will be just fine. 

My bigger worry with Malik is if he can consistently throw with touch on the boundaries. He'll need to do that to make it in the NFL and when he had to do it against Ole Miss it was a mess. 

There's QB's coming into the league every year with what is to believed to be legit rd. 1 talent, with far fewer known issues, who can't make the next step. For Willis to elevate his passing completion rate by 5%-6% going from the ASUN conference to NFL is a huge ask when he'll likely come into the league as a #2 getting limited reps. 

I guess I can see him being selected towards at the lower half of rd. 1 only as a reaction to how weak this year's crop actually is and the panic/overvaluing of the position.

One big exception for a QB who increased their completion percentage in a big way from college to the NFL:

Very true, Sticky. When I watched him vs Iowa I thought he would be a bust. The tough evaluator with Willis is his level of competition and quality of players around him. How many throws was he forcing? How poor of routes were his receivers running? How many dropbacks was he immediately pressured and had to improvise? I still lean no on him, but get why folks are interested

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Didn't Kurt Warner wear 2 gloves during his days?

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[Guest]

@supafreak84 said:
Speaking of QB's...from today's GBN:

 … While 2022 QB hopefuls Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis and Matt Corral all put in solid pro day workouts this week, more than one NFL personnel staffer will tell you that the most impressive QB to throw this week was Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud who won’t actually be draft eligible until next season when he figures to be a top ten candidate. Stroud, though, participated in the Buckeyes’ pro day today when he came out to throw to former teammates Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Most of the Buckeyes’ top prospects worked out at the combine and stood on their numbers from Indy; the one guy who didn’t go at the combine was TE Jeremy Ruckert who hoped to get on the field today, but showed up in a walking boot and remained on the sidelines …

Next years QB class looks special 

Stroud has incredible arm talent, but these OSU QBs bug me. It's hard to see them do anything difficult. The things QBs struggle with in the NFL. I think Stroud might be overrated. His arm, however, is not. 

[Guest]

@Havoc1649 said:
Barr would fit well rotationally as an insurance policy for our two outside backers who’ve had recent injuries. What I doubt will work out is the money. I expect he’ll want much more than the Vikes can offer. 

Agree. Unless his knee is chronic (and it might be), Barr is still a top level starter in this league. The Vikings can't offer him that. It just doesn't add up.

I sorta feel the same way about Peterson. Not on Barr's level, but still probably worth more on the market than the Vikings would be willing to spend. But this one is a lot closer than Barr. Vikings are probably offering him one of those "end-of-career" contracts and he wants something close to what he got last year. And that's not going to happen. 

[Guest]

@MaroonBells said:

@Havoc1649 said:
Barr would fit well rotationally as an insurance policy for our two outside backers who’ve had recent injuries. What I doubt will work out is the money. I expect he’ll want much more than the Vikes can offer. 

Agree. Unless his knee is chronic (and it might be), Barr is still a top level starter in this league. The Vikings can't offer him that. It just doesn't add up.

I sorta feel the same way about Peterson. Not on Barr's level, but still probably worth more on the market than the Vikings would be willing to spend. But this one is a lot closer than Barr. Vikings are probably offering him one of those "end-of-career" contracts and he wants something close to what he got last year. And that's not going to happen. 

The issue with Barr was always the restructure they did to keep him last off-season. Now that the $10.8M accelerated onto the cap there just isn't a deal that is going to make sense for the Vikings. Prior to his contract voiding there was a chance they could keep him effectively for free on the cap. The time has just passed. 

[Guest]

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@MaroonBells said:

@Havoc1649 said:
Barr would fit well rotationally as an insurance policy for our two outside backers who’ve had recent injuries. What I doubt will work out is the money. I expect he’ll want much more than the Vikes can offer. 

Agree. Unless his knee is chronic (and it might be), Barr is still a top level starter in this league. The Vikings can't offer him that. It just doesn't add up.

I sorta feel the same way about Peterson. Not on Barr's level, but still probably worth more on the market than the Vikings would be willing to spend. But this one is a lot closer than Barr. Vikings are probably offering him one of those "end-of-career" contracts and he wants something close to what he got last year. And that's not going to happen. 

The issue with Barr was always the restructure they did to keep him last off-season. Now that the $10.8M accelerated onto the cap there just isn't a deal that is going to make sense for the Vikings. Prior to his contract voiding there was a chance they could keep him effectively for free on the cap. The time has just passed. 

The time has passed as in, they let it pass and are fine moving on? Or as in, oops we were on the clock and didn’t get our pick in on time?

[Guest]

@pattersaur said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@MaroonBells said:

@Havoc1649 said:
Barr would fit well rotationally as an insurance policy for our two outside backers who’ve had recent injuries. What I doubt will work out is the money. I expect he’ll want much more than the Vikes can offer. 

Agree. Unless his knee is chronic (and it might be), Barr is still a top level starter in this league. The Vikings can't offer him that. It just doesn't add up.

I sorta feel the same way about Peterson. Not on Barr's level, but still probably worth more on the market than the Vikings would be willing to spend. But this one is a lot closer than Barr. Vikings are probably offering him one of those "end-of-career" contracts and he wants something close to what he got last year. And that's not going to happen. 

The issue with Barr was always the restructure they did to keep him last off-season. Now that the $10.8M accelerated onto the cap there just isn't a deal that is going to make sense for the Vikings. Prior to his contract voiding there was a chance they could keep him effectively for free on the cap. The time has just passed. 

The time has passed as in, they let it pass and are fine moving on? Or as in, oops we were on the clock and didn’t get our pick in on time?

The former. Prior to the league year the Vikings likely would have brought him back if the cost was in the $5-7M/yr range. At that price they could have gotten him into the cap for the same amount he is accounting against it now in dead money.