Will O'Connell appreciate durability in his QB?

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@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"MaroonBells" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"AGRforever" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:

@"supafreak84" said:

@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I don't really know if it'll be KOC's choice. Ultimately what matters at this point are Kirk's contract demands. They can let him play on the $45M cap hit, its not impossible. But it just doesn't make sense for a number of reasons. Mainly because if the relationship is a hit, then Kirk is immediately a FA and MN looses all control. So you either extend him this season or trade him. Them choosing or wanting to work together is #1a but the contract is #1b. 

If they decide to move on from Cousins and are able to find a trade partner, what do you see as likely options for the Vikings at QB for next season? 

I'm just at the point where we are starting off completely fresh, new GM and new head coach. Cousins is a top 15 QB but not worth the money he has been paid. He's also going to be 34 before the season starts. We might as well start out fresh at QB too and build this thing for the long term 

Well, your initial question is kind of the issue. There aren't many "good" options immediately available. If they do go down the route of trading Cousins I think the 3 teams to watch are the Browns, Panthers, and Broncos. Each have a QB you could take back and use as a bridge. I do personally think there is more to Baker Mayfield's game, Drew Locke is MEH but better than some of the FA options, Darnold is more for salary matching than talent. In free agency someone who can manage the game like a Marcus Mariota makes some sense. 

Basically whoever you bring in at QB is going to be an overall downgrade. The good news is that I would argue somone like Baker/Mariota may be better situationally. So maybe the win/loss floor is about the same. The ceiling would just be lower. 

If the Vikings ultimately bite the bullet and move Kirk the best case scenario would be similar to what the Eagles did this season. Be a flawed football team who has enough raw talent to slide into the 7/8 seed with no real chance. 

Where do you put the odds of Cousins remaining a Viking for this coming season?

80%

Wow. Don't think I'd put it quite that high. Before this weekend, I would've said 45%. Now maybe 55%.

Even if they decide they WANT to move forward with Kirk, they have to hammer out a deal that 1. Meets KAM's analytical vision 2. Eases our '22 cap situation. And 3. Is to Kirk and his agent's liking. That's a tough nut. 

I guess there is one option that no one is talking about: Play the year under the current contract. Doesn't seem very likely, but there are a few other places to find money. 

There are a few motivating factors on each side to get a deal done. If I needed to break-out the odds further: 

- 20% chance of a trade 
- 50% chance of an extension 
- 25% chance he plays out the year on a $45M cap number 
- 5% chance there is no extension but the Vikings work with Kirk to add void years and move some of the $45M onto the 2023 cap with no guarantee he is in MN 

I guess that makes some sense since there is clearly only one option for the no-Kirk side (trade) and, as you point out, three options that could see him in purple next year. 

Exactly. I figured breaking out the percentages would be more meaningful. I would say that the chance Kirk plays out the last year of his deal at 25% is much higher than it would have been a few weeks back.