Let’s talk Wild card

[Guest]

NFC playoff scenarios show big cost of Vikings loss to LionsHad Minnesota beaten the Lions a week ago, giving Detroit its only win of the season, the Vikings outlook would be significantly different right now.

The glass-is-half-full view of this Vikings season and their most recent effort against the Steelers is that even through all the ups and downs, Minnesota still controls its playoff destiny.
Win the last four games, and the Vikings are virtually guaranteed to make the postseason — a better than 99% chance, per FiveThirtyEight's projections.
As it stands now, the Vikings have a 33% chance to make the expanded seven-team NFC playoff field in this expanded 17-game season. Had Minnesota allowed Pittsburgh to come all the way back on Thursday, those odds would have been greatly diminished.
But the glass-is-half-empty view, which was more the rule than the exception on Monday's Daily Delivery podcast with Patrick Reusse, is that a glance at NFC playoff scenarios shows us more about how costly that loss two games ago to the Lions was than anything else.
FiveThirtyEight has this wonderful, frustrating tool that lets you plug in future outcomes for teams to see how wins and losses influence their playoff chances.
And for the Vikings, the difference between going 2-2 down the stretch and going 3-1 is massive.
If we plug in wins in the two games against the Bears — hardly guarantees but let's do it anyway — but losses to the Rams and Packers, the Vikings make the playoffs in just 8% of the scenarios while finishing 8-9.
But if we change just one outcome — a loss to the Rams becomes a win — the Vikings make the playoffs in 80% of scenarios while finishing 9-8.
While such a finish is still very much within the Vikings' reach, they would be 7-6 right now had they made one more play against the lowly Lions. And a 2-2 finish over their final four games — requiring just two wins over the dismal Bears — probably would have pushed the Vikings into the playoffs.
Controlling one's destiny without much margin for error is a dicey proposition. It's safe to say that if the Vikings miss the playoffs or make the playoffs, they will have earned their fate either way.
https://www.startribune.com/nfc-playoff-...600126632/

[Guest]

We're a 54 yard last second FG away from 0-2 vs the Lions.

Playoffs?! Playoffs?!

No.

[Guest]

I think if I ever get to the point of wanting my team to
lose, I hope I just move on with my life and take up some other hobby I can
enjoy.  I’d be curious to know the odds
that a shitty team dramatically improves via a single draft?

[Guest]

@medaille said:
I think if I ever get to the point of wanting my team to
lose, I hope I just move on with my life and take up some other hobby I can
enjoy.  I’d be curious to know the odds
that a shitty team dramatically improves via a single draft?

It's different because it's Bill but the Pats turned things around from last year. Bengals have too

[Guest]

@Hawkvike25 said:

@medaille said:
I think if I ever get to the point of wanting my team to
lose, I hope I just move on with my life and take up some other hobby I can
enjoy.  I’d be curious to know the odds
that a shitty team dramatically improves via a single draft?

It's different because it's Bill but the Pats turned things around from last year. Bengals have too

The bills made a big jump the year they took their QB 

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:

@Hawkvike25 said:

@medaille said:
I think if I ever get to the point of wanting my team to
lose, I hope I just move on with my life and take up some other hobby I can
enjoy.  I’d be curious to know the odds
that a shitty team dramatically improves via a single draft?

It's different because it's Bill but the Pats turned things around from last year. Bengals have too

The bills made a big jump the year they took their QB 

As did the Vikings from 08 to 09...

Vikings may have blown it not taking Mac Jones or trying harder for Fields.

Difference now is that the Vikings biggest weakness is D. This years squad is average on their very best Sundays.

[Guest]

@purplefaithful said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@Hawkvike25 said:

@medaille said:
I think if I ever get to the point of wanting my team to
lose, I hope I just move on with my life and take up some other hobby I can
enjoy.  I’d be curious to know the odds
that a shitty team dramatically improves via a single draft?

It's different because it's Bill but the Pats turned things around from last year. Bengals have too

The bills made a big jump the year they took their QB 

As did the Vikings from 08 to 09...

Vikings may have blown it not taking Mac Jones or trying harder for Fields.

Difference now is that the Vikings biggest weakness is D. This years squad is average on their very best Sundays.

Maybe, but QB isn't our issue which will make it tough to bounce back in one draft unless we hit in our first 3 picks. That's another thing that frustrates me with Zimmer, the lack of trust in rookies to play right away

[Guest]

@purplefaithful said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@Hawkvike25 said:

@medaille said:
I think if I ever get to the point of wanting my team to
lose, I hope I just move on with my life and take up some other hobby I can
enjoy.  I’d be curious to know the odds
that a shitty team dramatically improves via a single draft?

It's different because it's Bill but the Pats turned things around from last year. Bengals have too

The bills made a big jump the year they took their QB 

As did the Vikings from 08 to 09...

Vikings may have blown it not taking Mac Jones or trying harder for Fields.

Difference now is that the Vikings biggest weakness is D. This years squad is average on their very best Sundays.

Davis Mills (drafted one pick after Mond) also has looked… kind of not terrible?… for the Texans. He has multiple 300 yard games including one versus the Pats. They just named him the starter for the rest of the season. 

Might not mean a thing long term but kind of interesting. I know some of the draftniks around here liked him coming out. 

[Guest]

@pattersaur said:

@purplefaithful said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@Hawkvike25 said:

@medaille said:
I think if I ever get to the point of wanting my team to
lose, I hope I just move on with my life and take up some other hobby I can
enjoy.  I’d be curious to know the odds
that a shitty team dramatically improves via a single draft?

It's different because it's Bill but the Pats turned things around from last year. Bengals have too

The bills made a big jump the year they took their QB 

As did the Vikings from 08 to 09...

Vikings may have blown it not taking Mac Jones or trying harder for Fields.

Difference now is that the Vikings biggest weakness is D. This years squad is average on their very best Sundays.

Davis Mills (drafted one pick after Mond) also has looked… kind of not terrible?… for the Texans. He has multiple 300 yard games including one versus the Pats. They just named him the starter for the rest of the season. 

Might not mean a thing long term but kind of interesting. I know some of the draftniks around here liked him coming out. 

He has been ok considering the roster they have. It's a weird time in the NFL where outside of the first round everything is a crapshoot and tends to fall into luck and the situation they fall into. Maybe Mond becomes the guy? We wont know for some time though. Use this draft to address needs that we will have beyond next year and see how things go