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[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:

@suncoastvike said:

@StickyBun said:

@suncoastvike said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@purplefaithful said:
Looking ahead...

i am hoping tech like Mrna can get us future vaccines even quicker than Covid-19 (which is still miraculous imo)

Hoping our country learned not to off-shore critical infrastructure like PPE (but see whats happening with semi-conductor chips right now, so I have my doubts)

Hard to bring mfg home when you can't get anybody to take a damn job of any kind.

As someone who's spent my entire career around manufacturing let me add my perspective. I do disagree with making all non skilled jobs living wage jobs. That needs to be said 1st.
Now about the fallacy of returning manufacturing jobs. Who's going to retool for the real return? We shuttered most large scale manufacturing. These companies have chosen off shore parts to be assembled in the US as the new manufacturing model. Then as these ite

Yes, 'assembled in the USA' is all the rage. But with new increased transportation costs, material costs and other off-shore cost pressures, companies are starting to look back into the USA to have their items manufactured. In some cases, its less costly. 

Until the US companies increase their prices and lead time. There is still not enough raw manufacturing facilities in the US to accommodate. There was a push to move parts out of China due to tariffs. Many companies chose India, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand. Lead times are costly I agree. However the base just ain't here to cover all the product they claim they are moving back.
I work for a Mega Corp and I'm closely inline with sourcing materials. Many US companies are simply not taking any new orders. Maybe more workers would change their minds. However I doubt the make millions in retooling investments based on a trend.

it wont happen in mass,  and I doubt we would ever get back to even a fraction of what we were,  but even a small shift would be a good start.  IMO right now coming out of covid is a bad time to gauge how possible it could be with all the shortages hitting all industries,  but this is a bump and will settle out (hopefully sooner than later)  and then companies will be looking for new ways to drive revenue.  gonna be a catch 22 though IMO,  its gonna take a rate increase to slow the buying down so companies will be looking for more opportunities,  but that would hinder them in putting money into new tooling and such.

Trust me I'm not arguing against returning raw material manufacturing back to the US. I know it will never be what it once was. 1/3 of all jobs used to be manufacturing in the US. It's now around 9% and even that is inflated by what they classify as manufacturing. 
The tooling cost would only be offset if purchasing was interested in paying the extra cost they need to fund their retooling. Seeing is believing there. Alot of talk about infrastructure nowadays. How about swinging some of that money towards what made this country a super power in 2 World Wars. Our ability to flip the switch to war manufacturing. Though I must admit I take issue with giving companies money for them to make money. All in the name of job creation. Been lied to plenty there. 

[Guest]

@suncoastvike said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@suncoastvike said:

@StickyBun said:

@suncoastvike said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@purplefaithful said:
Looking ahead...

i am hoping tech like Mrna can get us future vaccines even quicker than Covid-19 (which is still miraculous imo)

Hoping our country learned not to off-shore critical infrastructure like PPE (but see whats happening with semi-conductor chips right now, so I have my doubts)

Hard to bring mfg home when you can't get anybody to take a damn job of any kind.

As someone who's spent my entire career around manufacturing let me add my perspective. I do disagree with making all non skilled jobs living wage jobs. That needs to be said 1st.
Now about the fallacy of returning manufacturing jobs. Who's going to retool for the real return? We shuttered most large scale manufacturing. These companies have chosen off shore parts to be assembled in the US as the new manufacturing model. Then as these ite

Yes, 'assembled in the USA' is all the rage. But with new increased transportation costs, material costs and other off-shore cost pressures, companies are starting to look back into the USA to have their items manufactured. In some cases, its less costly. 

Until the US companies increase their prices and lead time. There is still not enough raw manufacturing facilities in the US to accommodate. There was a push to move parts out of China due to tariffs. Many companies chose India, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand. Lead times are costly I agree. However the base just ain't here to cover all the product they claim they are moving back.
I work for a Mega Corp and I'm closely inline with sourcing materials. Many US companies are simply not taking any new orders. Maybe more workers would change their minds. However I doubt the make millions in retooling investments based on a trend.

it wont happen in mass,  and I doubt we would ever get back to even a fraction of what we were,  but even a small shift would be a good start.  IMO right now coming out of covid is a bad time to gauge how possible it could be with all the shortages hitting all industries,  but this is a bump and will settle out (hopefully sooner than later)  and then companies will be looking for new ways to drive revenue.  gonna be a catch 22 though IMO,  its gonna take a rate increase to slow the buying down so companies will be looking for more opportunities,  but that would hinder them in putting money into new tooling and such.

Trust me I'm not arguing against returning raw material manufacturing back to the US. I know it will never be what it once was. 1/3 of all jobs used to be manufacturing in the US. It's now around 9% and even that is inflated by what they classify as manufacturing. 
The tooling cost would only be offset if purchasing was interested in paying the extra cost they need to fund their retooling. Seeing is believing there. Alot of talk about infrastructure nowadays. How about swinging some of that money towards what made this country a super power in 2 World Wars. Our ability to flip the switch to war manufacturing. Though I must admit I take issue with giving companies money for them to make money. All in the name of job creation. Been lied to plenty there. 

I have long said that any tax breaks for business owners needs to be tied to job creation in the US,  or reinvestment in their companies that leads to job creation in the US.  Simply giving tax to wealthy business owners in the hopes that they will reinvest in America is a foolish approach as we know that there isnt many wealthy persons out there paying a single penny more in taxes than they have to and that they are only going to do what is financially in their own best interest when it comes to what they keep.... so force them to help the country grow,  or take the money out of their pockets to help the country survive.  (pay down the debt so we can lower the tax burdon on the working class eventually)

[Guest]

@suncoastvike said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@suncoastvike said:

@StickyBun said:

@suncoastvike said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@purplefaithful said:
Looking ahead...

i am hoping tech like Mrna can get us future vaccines even quicker than Covid-19 (which is still miraculous imo)

Hoping our country learned not to off-shore critical infrastructure like PPE (but see whats happening with semi-conductor chips right now, so I have my doubts)

Hard to bring mfg home when you can't get anybody to take a damn job of any kind.

As someone who's spent my entire career around manufacturing let me add my perspective. I do disagree with making all non skilled jobs living wage jobs. That needs to be said 1st.
Now about the fallacy of returning manufacturing jobs. Who's going to retool for the real return? We shuttered most large scale manufacturing. These companies have chosen off shore parts to be assembled in the US as the new manufacturing model. Then as these ite

Yes, 'assembled in the USA' is all the rage. But with new increased transportation costs, material costs and other off-shore cost pressures, companies are starting to look back into the USA to have their items manufactured. In some cases, its less costly. 

Until the US companies increase their prices and lead time. There is still not enough raw manufacturing facilities in the US to accommodate. There was a push to move parts out of China due to tariffs. Many companies chose India, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand. Lead times are costly I agree. However the base just ain't here to cover all the product they claim they are moving back.
I work for a Mega Corp and I'm closely inline with sourcing materials. Many US companies are simply not taking any new orders. Maybe more workers would change their minds. However I doubt the make millions in retooling investments based on a trend.

it wont happen in mass,  and I doubt we would ever get back to even a fraction of what we were,  but even a small shift would be a good start.  IMO right now coming out of covid is a bad time to gauge how possible it could be with all the shortages hitting all industries,  but this is a bump and will settle out (hopefully sooner than later)  and then companies will be looking for new ways to drive revenue.  gonna be a catch 22 though IMO,  its gonna take a rate increase to slow the buying down so companies will be looking for more opportunities,  but that would hinder them in putting money into new tooling and such.

Trust me I'm not arguing against returning raw material manufacturing back to the US. I know it will never be what it once was. 1/3 of all jobs used to be manufacturing in the US. It's now around 9% and even that is inflated by what they classify as manufacturing. 
The tooling cost would only be offset if purchasing was interested in paying the extra cost they need to fund their retooling. Seeing is believing there. Alot of talk about infrastructure nowadays. How about swinging some of that money towards what made this country a super power in 2 World Wars. Our ability to flip the switch to war manufacturing. Though I must admit I take issue with giving companies money for them to make money. All in the name of job creation. Been lied to plenty there. 

You add in automation and the increased productivity per person, fewer jobs same volume of product.  What used to take four $17.00 jobs can be produced by one operator @ $27.00 with a single benefit package.  Those displaced folk are supposed to use the "opportunity" their upgrade their skills, but can't say I have seen many using that path for upward mobility.  Also the technological advancements in casting and materials has really optimized machining and primary operations, no longer do you see rows of mills and lathes, making chips isn't profitable.  They have been replaced with 5 axis machining centers fed by pallet pools and tool loaders making many different parts...   You don't have old school "machinists", CAD programs generate the speeds and feeds and the machining center monitors tool wear, you now have machine tenders loading parts and moving materials for "lights out" production cells.  Maintenance for any manufacturing technology is farmed out to specialists, who have to stay up to date to keep their positions, usually by the machine vendor. In house maintenance is mostly PM, changing fluids and an occasional obvious switch change and safety tasks.  Glad I got out of manufacturing, the good days appear to be the old days and I very much doubt the adverb "again" will used by the rank and file.  The other groups I have seen replaced are pro's with Business Admin and MBA's, that used to be the ticket, now the hot office jobs are for kids with degree's in supply chain management.    

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:

@StickyBun said:

@suncoastvike said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@purplefaithful said:
Looking ahead...

i am hoping tech like Mrna can get us future vaccines even quicker than Covid-19 (which is still miraculous imo)

Hoping our country learned not to off-shore critical infrastructure like PPE (but see whats happening with semi-conductor chips right now, so I have my doubts)

Hard to bring mfg home when you can't get anybody to take a damn job of any kind.

As someone who's spent my entire career around manufacturing let me add my perspective. I do disagree with making all non skilled jobs living wage jobs. That needs to be said 1st.
Now about the fallacy of returning manufacturing jobs. Who's going to retool for the real return? We shuttered most large scale manufacturing. These companies have chosen off shore parts to be assembled in the US as the new manufacturing model. Then as these ite

Yes, 'assembled in the USA' is all the rage. But with new increased transportation costs, material costs and other off-shore cost pressures, companies are starting to look back into the USA to have their items manufactured. In some cases, its less costly. 

want to really make it more competitive to manufacture here and save the planet at the same time?  make China and all these other countries, that are the real polluters, follow the exact same pollution standards that American companies are forced to adhere to.  maybe even enforce the same labor standards ( working conditions,  not wage scales) American companies have to follow, and apply tariffs on the goods that are made in places that dont meet those standards.  I think we would choke on the new costs of goods,  but it would level that playing field some.

You have to take the China pollution problem with a gain of salt.  The reason they pollute is to create all the plastic crap we keep buying.  We offshore the stuff that pollutes which decreases our footprint nationally but not globally.  We're still using the the same or more stuff it just looks better on paper if the carbon comes out of a Chinese smoke stack vs and American one. 

[Guest]

@AGRforever said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@StickyBun said:

@suncoastvike said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@purplefaithful said:
Looking ahead...

i am hoping tech like Mrna can get us future vaccines even quicker than Covid-19 (which is still miraculous imo)

Hoping our country learned not to off-shore critical infrastructure like PPE (but see whats happening with semi-conductor chips right now, so I have my doubts)

Hard to bring mfg home when you can't get anybody to take a damn job of any kind.

As someone who's spent my entire career around manufacturing let me add my perspective. I do disagree with making all non skilled jobs living wage jobs. That needs to be said 1st.
Now about the fallacy of returning manufacturing jobs. Who's going to retool for the real return? We shuttered most large scale manufacturing. These companies have chosen off shore parts to be assembled in the US as the new manufacturing model. Then as these ite

Yes, 'assembled in the USA' is all the rage. But with new increased transportation costs, material costs and other off-shore cost pressures, companies are starting to look back into the USA to have their items manufactured. In some cases, its less costly. 

want to really make it more competitive to manufacture here and save the planet at the same time?  make China and all these other countries, that are the real polluters, follow the exact same pollution standards that American companies are forced to adhere to.  maybe even enforce the same labor standards ( working conditions,  not wage scales) American companies have to follow, and apply tariffs on the goods that are made in places that dont meet those standards.  I think we would choke on the new costs of goods,  but it would level that playing field some.

You have to take the China pollution problem with a gain of salt.  The reason they pollute is to create all the plastic crap we keep buying.  We offshore the stuff that pollutes which decreases our footprint nationally but not globally.  We're still using the the same or more stuff it just looks better on paper if the carbon comes out of a Chinese smoke stack vs and American one. 

does it though?  a lot of production in my industry was pushed out of this country by tighter regulations on emissions and with that production went the jobs,  as far as the planet is concerned does it really care where the pollution is?  also it seems that all these clean air pacts and promises to reduce emissions are hitting the Americans harder than most other industrialized countries,  if its good for one its good for all IMO.

Al is right,  automation has eliminated a lot of MFG in the US,  one plant I buy from in southern iowa is barely recognizable now compared to 20 years ago in terms of robotics replacing humans,  but there are still unskilled jobs that require humans that could pay a good wage if those factories were able to still run in the US.  A lot of foundries closed down because they couldnt keep up with the clean air requirements and meet the prices of those castings coming from places that are still belching the smoke,  and a lot of those foundries were in small towns all across this country.  I would have to think the labor savings in asia are pretty much offset by the shipping costs so with that being a wash its just down to the cost to operate the plants that were keeping our US foundries from staying open wouldnt it?

[Guest]

There's another contributor to offshoring of manufacturing....the increased emphasis that everybody needs to go to college.  There are a lot of skilled trade positions out there that go unfilled in this Country while many underperforming High School Students struggle through college all the while accumulating debt instead of going into the trades.  Those skilled trade positions used to be highly coveted....now not so much.  Those that struggle through college would be much better served in the trades...with better pay, benefits, etc. if there parents and teachers would allow that possibility.  

[Guest]

@badgervike said:
There's another contributor to offshoring of manufacturing....the increased emphasis that everybody needs to go to college.  There are a lot of skilled trade positions out there that go unfilled in this Country while many underperforming High School Students struggle through college all the while accumulating debt instead of going into the trades.  Those skilled trade positions used to be highly coveted....now not so much.  Those that struggle through college would be much better served in the trades...with better pay, benefits, etc. if there parents and teachers would allow that possibility.  

this!  a million times this,  we have a problem in this country that some people believe that a job that requires your back or hands is beneath them,  plumbing, heating, electrical,  etc are not careers that are going to get replaced by automation and in most places are in very high demand and the wages and benefits are showing it.  My son is making over 50k a year with an awesome benefits package as a HVAC tech. after only 2 years of college and less than 25k in tuition.   his ceiling may not be as high as somebody with an mba,  but he wont be beating the bricks after a corporate down sizing either.  He can literally go anywhere and find a job in a heart beat or start his own company if he gets tired of working for somebody else.  He would have done fine in college,  but I think he made the right decision for the kind of life he wants to live.

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:

@badgervike said:
There's another contributor to offshoring of manufacturing....the increased emphasis that everybody needs to go to college.  There are a lot of skilled trade positions out there that go unfilled in this Country while many underperforming High School Students struggle through college all the while accumulating debt instead of going into the trades.  Those skilled trade positions used to be highly coveted....now not so much.  Those that struggle through college would be much better served in the trades...with better pay, benefits, etc. if there parents and teachers would allow that possibility.  

this!  a million times this,  we have a problem in this country that some people believe that a job that requires your back or hands is beneath them,  plumbing, heating, electrical,  etc are not careers that are going to get replaced by automation and in most places are in very high demand and the wages and benefits are showing it.  My son is making over 50k a year with an awesome benefits package as a HVAC tech. after only 2 years of college and less than 25k in tuition.   his ceiling may not be as high as somebody with an mba,  but he wont be beating the bricks after a corporate down sizing either.  He can literally go anywhere and find a job in a heart beat or start his own company if he gets tired of working for somebody else.  He would have done fine in college,  but I think he made the right decision for the kind of life he wants to live.

Thats all we can hope for....Healthy and happy kids. 

[Guest]

@JimmyinSD said:

@badgervike said:
There's another contributor to offshoring of manufacturing....the increased emphasis that everybody needs to go to college.  There are a lot of skilled trade positions out there that go unfilled in this Country while many underperforming High School Students struggle through college all the while accumulating debt instead of going into the trades.  Those skilled trade positions used to be highly coveted....now not so much.  Those that struggle through college would be much better served in the trades...with better pay, benefits, etc. if there parents and teachers would allow that possibility.  

this!  a million times this,  we have a problem in this country that some people believe that a job that requires your back or hands is beneath them,  plumbing, heating, electrical,  etc are not careers that are going to get replaced by automation and in most places are in very high demand and the wages and benefits are showing it.  My son is making over 50k a year with an awesome benefits package as a HVAC tech. after only 2 years of college and less than 25k in tuition.   his ceiling may not be as high as somebody with an mba,  but he wont be beating the bricks after a corporate down sizing either.  He can literally go anywhere and find a job in a heart beat or start his own company if he gets tired of working for somebody else.  He would have done fine in college,  but I think he made the right decision for the kind of life he wants to live.

Central air is pretty much an American thing, but to your point yes not everyone needs or should pusue a college degree.   A CC associate is very good, but also not for every one.  And you probably don’t recall, but that was made America better than the commies, they used to track their kids into trades, to best serve the utility of the society. Just remember it’s the ceiling most folk want, if not for themselves, their kids.  Glad for your son, hope his path continues to be easy. 

[Guest]

@BigAl99 said:

@suncoastvike said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@suncoastvike said:

@StickyBun said:

@suncoastvike said:

@JimmyinSD said:

@purplefaithful said:
Looking ahead...

i am hoping tech like Mrna can get us future vaccines even quicker than Covid-19 (which is still miraculous imo)

Hoping our country learned not to off-shore critical infrastructure like PPE (but see whats happening with semi-conductor chips right now, so I have my doubts)

Hard to bring mfg home when you can't get anybody to take a damn job of any kind.

As someone who's spent my entire career around manufacturing let me add my perspective. I do disagree with making all non skilled jobs living wage jobs. That needs to be said 1st.
Now about the fallacy of returning manufacturing jobs. Who's going to retool for the real return? We shuttered most large scale manufacturing. These companies have chosen off shore parts to be assembled in the US as the new manufacturing model. Then as these ite

Yes, 'assembled in the USA' is all the rage. But with new increased transportation costs, material costs and other off-shore cost pressures, companies are starting to look back into the USA to have their items manufactured. In some cases, its less costly. 

Until the US companies increase their prices and lead time. There is still not enough raw manufacturing facilities in the US to accommodate. There was a push to move parts out of China due to tariffs. Many companies chose India, Malaysia, Taiwan and Thailand. Lead times are costly I agree. However the base just ain't here to cover all the product they claim they are moving back.
I work for a Mega Corp and I'm closely inline with sourcing materials. Many US companies are simply not taking any new orders. Maybe more workers would change their minds. However I doubt the make millions in retooling investments based on a trend.

it wont happen in mass,  and I doubt we would ever get back to even a fraction of what we were,  but even a small shift would be a good start.  IMO right now coming out of covid is a bad time to gauge how possible it could be with all the shortages hitting all industries,  but this is a bump and will settle out (hopefully sooner than later)  and then companies will be looking for new ways to drive revenue.  gonna be a catch 22 though IMO,  its gonna take a rate increase to slow the buying down so companies will be looking for more opportunities,  but that would hinder them in putting money into new tooling and such.

Trust me I'm not arguing against returning raw material manufacturing back to the US. I know it will never be what it once was. 1/3 of all jobs used to be manufacturing in the US. It's now around 9% and even that is inflated by what they classify as manufacturing. 
The tooling cost would only be offset if purchasing was interested in paying the extra cost they need to fund their retooling. Seeing is believing there. Alot of talk about infrastructure nowadays. How about swinging some of that money towards what made this country a super power in 2 World Wars. Our ability to flip the switch to war manufacturing. Though I must admit I take issue with giving companies money for them to make money. All in the name of job creation. Been lied to plenty there. 

You add in automation and the increased productivity per person, fewer jobs same volume of product.  What used to take four $17.00 jobs can be produced by one operator @ $27.00 with a single benefit package.  Those displaced folk are supposed to use the "opportunity" their upgrade their skills, but can't say I have seen many using that path for upward mobility.  Also the technological advancements in casting and materials has really optimized machining and primary operations, no longer do you see rows of mills and lathes, making chips isn't profitable.  They have been replaced with 5 axis machining centers fed by pallet pools and tool loaders making many different parts...   You don't have old school "machinists", CAD programs generate the speeds and feeds and the machining center monitors tool wear, you now have machine tenders loading parts and moving materials for "lights out" production cells.  Maintenance for any manufacturing technology is farmed out to specialists, who have to stay up to date to keep their positions, usually by the machine vendor. In house maintenance is mostly PM, changing fluids and an occasional obvious switch change and safety tasks.  Glad I got out of manufacturing, the good days appear to be the old days and I very much doubt the adverb "again" will used by the rank and file.  The other groups I have seen replaced are pro's with Business Admin and MBA's, that used to be the ticket, now the hot office jobs are for kids with degree's in supply chain management.    

You know what your saying here. I'll give you that. Those machines are around a million dollars now. That is a major investment most won't make.  They lease them now and replace with new leases every few years. The used ones get sold. Perpetual lease expenses are better for some. If it goes down the leasing company repairs it.
Even drafting is obsolete because of Cad programs. Where a company used to employ several draftsmen to create and revise drawings. Now one intern from the college can do it for you. I've seen it there as well as on the floor.
Buyers are in demand and companies steal them from one another regularly.