How first-round pick Jordan Addison might have changed the outcome of a Vikings' fateful 4th-and-8One play didn't define the Vikings' overall successful 2022 season, nor does one play inform an entire draft strategy. But it's interesting to wonder how much last year's final offensive play lingers with the organization, and how WR Jordan Addison might help.When you go back as I did this week and watch a dozen or so times the Vikings' season-ending play in January's 31-24 playoff loss to the Giants — the 4th-and-8 that came up short — you notice a lot.
You are reminded that while the narrative often has been reduced to "Kirk Cousins threw short of the sticks when it mattered most" his options were far from great.
Justin Jefferson? Double-covered. Adam Thielen? Well-covered. K.J. Osborn? He had a half-step over the middle, but his route could have been better. Dalvin Cook? He would have had space in the flat, but a defender was spying on him. T.J. Hockenson? That's where Cousins ultimately went, and he was stopped well short while being well-covered.
All that was unfolding while Cousins was feeling pressure, yet again, up the middle. And the play design, which didn't seem to feature Hockenson as one of the best options, left something to be desired.
One way to mitigate the need for a better immediate option on the play is a mobile quarterback who can escape pressure to either buy time for receivers or run for a first down.
That's both a micro and macro reason I thought the Vikings might draft a mobile quarterback as Cousins' successor in this year's draft — and a reason I still think that will be a sought-out feature of any eventual new young QB.
But as Ben Goessling and I talked about on
Tuesday's Daily Delivery podcast, another way to give yourself a better chance on critical third- or fourth-and-long plays is by giving Cousins another target who can: 1) Get open and 2) Do it quickly.
The pick of Addison represented a need, particularly after the Vikings parted ways with the veteran Thielen. At least part of the decision on Thielen was predicated on the fact that he is no longer getting consistent separation from defensive backs.
To function as a next-level offense, the Vikings desperately need someone to make opponents pay for double-teaming Jefferson. The Giants did not pay on that fateful 4th-and-8 because in the precious couple of seconds Cousins had to process the field, he determined that there were really no good options.
Whether he made the right decision is a different question, and I think most of us (head coach Kevin O'Connell included) would have preferred to see him at least take a shot to Jefferson or try Osborn.
The option he did not have was a twitchy slot receiver who has the ability to beat coverage quickly and either get open past the first down marker or reliably catch and run past it.
That's what Addison brings to the party. While he's not just a slot receiver, he took 68% of his snaps in the slot in 2021 — his 100-catch season at Pitt that thrust him onto the national radar.
He lined up wide more after transferring to USC, but we see an interesting number from his data last season: Addison's average depth of target was 10.7 yards past the line of scrimmage, tied for 261st among receivers with at least 32 targets last season. He also averaged about seven yards after the catch each of the last two years.
One can imagine the every-down dimension a player like the 5-11, 174-pound Addison could add to the Vikings' offense, particularly with a line that still give up too much pressure in Cousins' face. They didn't have a reliable threat quite like him in 2022.
One can also picture O'Connell in the draft room imagining how last year might have ended differently with a player like Addison lined up on a season-defining play.
https://www.startribune.com/jordan-addison-vikings-giants-playoffs-fourth-and-8-justin-jefferson-kirk-cousins-randball/600271739/
