I see two problems with the trade:
1) We'd lose our starting QB who's a proven very good player (Pro Bowl caliber).
2) We'd still need to draft a potential QBOTF.
I think Lance might be a bigger risk than a newly drafted rookie. Lance has NFL experience, and it hasn't gone very well at all. Are the odds better Lance can turn it around than just drafting a rookie and hope he will develop into a starter?I watched about every Bison game Lance ever played in, and not once did I ever think he'd be a top rated NFL QB. Yeah, he can chuck it pretty far, but he was always a running QB; not a passing QB that can run. I thought it was crazy (and extremely desperate) that he was considered one of the top QB prospects when he was drafted. I also thought the same about Wentz.I wouldn't mind the Vikes getting Lance, but no way would I give up much for him.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ purplefaithful said:
Lance appears to be high upside; but I think how high is more of a question mark now than when he was drafted. As is his floor.
I'd like to get the hometown kid back, but only at the right cost. And that means not trading our Pro Bowl QB for him.
The win for me is getting someone here to understudy under Kirko and go from there. It seems so clear to me this is the best path for the Vikings. ITs not complicated.
It does appear pretty obvious that this is the best route to take. I like Lance's upside. I'd put him right alongside most of the QBs in this draft as a potential QBOTF. So if the Vikings miss on a QB in the draft, I'd be all for trading for Lance.
Agreed-- a rookie QB sitting behind Kirk for a year makes the most sense.
However, if the two "best" options wind up being Lance or Hooker, it does get a bit murkier I think. Both have had major injuries. Hooker is 3 years older with no NFL experience, but you do have him locked up for the extra contract time. And Hooker could sit behind Kirk, versus presumably the Niners would want Kirk in return. It's this last part that probably kills the Lance deal but it's at least something to think about. I'm glad our GM seems to be doing so.
The problem with Lance is that even if you think he has potential, he's already 2 years into his rookie deal, and he's still just potential. When is this potential going to turn into a guy that can take you to the SB and is it soon enough that you get the benefit of him being cheap or do you now have an expensive, but still mediocre QB?
How much more potential does Lance have compared to Dorian Thompson-Robinson and is it worth the premium to pay him a veteran contract by the time he's good? With DRT, you've got a 4 year window to figure it out and get benefits. With Lance, he's pretty much going to have to become starting caliber year 1 or 2 and build a roster around him the same years.
Quote: @HappyViking said:
I see two problems with the trade:
1) We'd lose our starting QB who's a proven very good player (Pro Bowl caliber).
2) We'd still need to draft a potential QBOTF.
I think Lance might be a bigger risk than a newly drafted rookie. Lance has NFL experience, and it hasn't gone very well at all. Are the odds better Lance can turn it around better than just drafting a rookie and hope he will develop into a starter?I watched about every Bison game Lance ever played in, and not once did I ever think he'd be a top rated NFL QB. Yeah, he can chuck it pretty far, but he was always a running QB; not a passing QB that can run. I thought it was crazy (and extremely desperate) that he was considered one of the top QB prospects when he was drafted. I also thought the same about Wentz.I wouldn't mind the Vikes getting Lance, but no way would I give up much for him.
This bit about Lance intrigued me at the time and still does.
Off the gridiron, Lance impressed the 49ers, and Kyle Shanahan in particular, with his mental characteristics. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Trey Lance blew the 49ers away with his psychological test scores. Lance’s smarts were ‘off the charts’. The Shanahan-Lynch brain trust value the character of a player incredibly highly. They have walked away from talented players due to off the field issues or character concerns. Attitude, drive and focus are three things that the 49ers prioritise: Trey Lance has all three in abundance.
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
@ bigbone62 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ bigbone62 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ bigbone62 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ PurplePastor said:
@ dadevike said:
Sunk cost. That is what you call the draft capital that SF gave up to draft Trey Lance. It really should not enter into consideration when considering trade offers for Lance. The only consideration is whether your team is better off with Trey lance or with whatever is being offered in a trade.
If SF values Lance as much as it values the 85th pick in the draft and it rejects the best trade offer by, say, Indy of pick # 80, then instead of making only one mistake (overpaying for Lance), it has made two (refusing to trade him for more than you think he is worth).
I agree with what you're saying. The caveat in these types of cases is whether the GM is willing to humble himself as making a mistake and moving on.
That's not even an issue. Lynch has already come out and said Purdy should be their starter and he's earned that right. The Purdy factor makes it much easier for them to move off Lance in a trade.
You greatly underestimate the power of ego. Lynch can start Purdy and keep Lance which saves his ego from having to admit a monstrous mismanagement in draft capital. Again QB position is costing them nothing. Trading him for what will be pennies on the dollar will be admitting that mismanagement of draft capital.
If he gets something good in return that is a different story, but that isn't happening. I know you're giddy about a possible KC trade but it isn't happening. Fun to talk about but nowhere near the realm of reality. That trade would be a really good way to tell Jefferson you might as well start eye balling what NFL city you want to call your next home.
I'm tired of hearing the "well, if we move on from Kirk, Jefferson is going to cry about it and leave in free agency" argument. There has been nothing to indicate any of that. Kirk is going to be 35...you think he is going to play forever or play at this level forever? The answer is no, and that page at QB is going to be turned sooner rather than later, and I'd imagine even Jefferson understands that.
You seem to not understand what people are saying. I don't think anyone has ever said Jefferson would be unhappy with moving on from Kirk. When people point this out it's because the proposed replacement tends to reek of getting rid of of KC just to get rid of him. And the suggested replacement isn't much to get excited about. Be it a fan or player perspective.
Beyond that do you really think star WRs in the league don't talk? Lol, I can see it now. "Sup Deebo, heard we may be swapping QBs. You and George are gonna feast with Kirko. Look at what Hock and I put up. What's it like playing with Lance?" Deebo chuckles to himself and types "nice kid". Deebo exits text chain...
But you're right. I'm sure Jefferson would be thrilled to dump the guy whose thrown him the ball to historic WR numbers. For a guy with 4 career starts whose teams dumps him two years after burning 3 first round picks. No red flags there at all.
It's a business. The same business that's going to make Justin Jefferson the highest paid receiver in league history regardless of who the QB is. The business currently is that Cousins will be a 35 year old QB the Vikings are not going to pay guaranteed money to on an extension and are hedging their bets. Regardless, whether its Lance or somebody else, good chance Cousins isn't here much longer and I'm sure that's a reality Jefferson is prepared for
This take is literally what people are trying to get across to you. It is in fact a business. A business where Jefferson gets paid based on production. You don't think he views the guy throwing him the ball being someone washing out after 4 starts as detrimental to his earning potential? Hence him looking elsewhere.
Who washed out? Lance got hurt, which isn't remotely the same thing. And this isn't me being some Lance homer. I acknowledge he's still somewhat of an unknown with potential, but if the plan is to simply let Cousins play out his deal then what are the other options? In some capacity Jefferson will be catching passes from a relatively unknown commodity in the not too distant future regardless. And JJ is going to get paid off what he's already done and what he means to the organization. He will be set for life and I highly doubt he throws a fit over the Vikings moving on from a middle aged Kirk Cousins.
Lance is somewhat of an unknown with potential? What is known are the raw stats which aren't good. We would also have to overlook the fact that the 49ers have had 2 years to get answers on Trey's potential and don't see him developing into a franchise QB. Giving up valuable draft capital, let alone a proven top 10 QB in return for that QBOF could be career suicide for Kwesi and KOC. If we're going to make a mistake at the QBOF, let's make it with a clean slate, with an additional 2 yrs on a rookie contract, and a greater body of work in order to judge the potential.
Quote: @mgobluevikes said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ bigbone62 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ bigbone62 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ bigbone62 said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ PurplePastor said:
@ dadevike said:
Sunk cost. That is what you call the draft capital that SF gave up to draft Trey Lance. It really should not enter into consideration when considering trade offers for Lance. The only consideration is whether your team is better off with Trey lance or with whatever is being offered in a trade.
If SF values Lance as much as it values the 85th pick in the draft and it rejects the best trade offer by, say, Indy of pick # 80, then instead of making only one mistake (overpaying for Lance), it has made two (refusing to trade him for more than you think he is worth).
I agree with what you're saying. The caveat in these types of cases is whether the GM is willing to humble himself as making a mistake and moving on.
That's not even an issue. Lynch has already come out and said Purdy should be their starter and he's earned that right. The Purdy factor makes it much easier for them to move off Lance in a trade.
You greatly underestimate the power of ego. Lynch can start Purdy and keep Lance which saves his ego from having to admit a monstrous mismanagement in draft capital. Again QB position is costing them nothing. Trading him for what will be pennies on the dollar will be admitting that mismanagement of draft capital.
If he gets something good in return that is a different story, but that isn't happening. I know you're giddy about a possible KC trade but it isn't happening. Fun to talk about but nowhere near the realm of reality. That trade would be a really good way to tell Jefferson you might as well start eye balling what NFL city you want to call your next home.
I'm tired of hearing the "well, if we move on from Kirk, Jefferson is going to cry about it and leave in free agency" argument. There has been nothing to indicate any of that. Kirk is going to be 35...you think he is going to play forever or play at this level forever? The answer is no, and that page at QB is going to be turned sooner rather than later, and I'd imagine even Jefferson understands that.
You seem to not understand what people are saying. I don't think anyone has ever said Jefferson would be unhappy with moving on from Kirk. When people point this out it's because the proposed replacement tends to reek of getting rid of of KC just to get rid of him. And the suggested replacement isn't much to get excited about. Be it a fan or player perspective.
Beyond that do you really think star WRs in the league don't talk? Lol, I can see it now. "Sup Deebo, heard we may be swapping QBs. You and George are gonna feast with Kirko. Look at what Hock and I put up. What's it like playing with Lance?" Deebo chuckles to himself and types "nice kid". Deebo exits text chain...
But you're right. I'm sure Jefferson would be thrilled to dump the guy whose thrown him the ball to historic WR numbers. For a guy with 4 career starts whose teams dumps him two years after burning 3 first round picks. No red flags there at all.
It's a business. The same business that's going to make Justin Jefferson the highest paid receiver in league history regardless of who the QB is. The business currently is that Cousins will be a 35 year old QB the Vikings are not going to pay guaranteed money to on an extension and are hedging their bets. Regardless, whether its Lance or somebody else, good chance Cousins isn't here much longer and I'm sure that's a reality Jefferson is prepared for
This take is literally what people are trying to get across to you. It is in fact a business. A business where Jefferson gets paid based on production. You don't think he views the guy throwing him the ball being someone washing out after 4 starts as detrimental to his earning potential? Hence him looking elsewhere.
Who washed out? Lance got hurt, which isn't remotely the same thing. And this isn't me being some Lance homer. I acknowledge he's still somewhat of an unknown with potential, but if the plan is to simply let Cousins play out his deal then what are the other options? In some capacity Jefferson will be catching passes from a relatively unknown commodity in the not too distant future regardless. And JJ is going to get paid off what he's already done and what he means to the organization. He will be set for life and I highly doubt he throws a fit over the Vikings moving on from a middle aged Kirk Cousins.
Lance is somewhat of an unknown with potential? What is known are the raw stats which aren't good. We would also have to overlook the fact that the 49ers have had 2 years to get answers on Trey's potential and don't see him developing into a franchise QB. Giving up valuable draft capital, let alone a proven top 10 QB in return for that QBOF could be career suicide for Kwesi and KOC. If we're going to make a mistake at the QBOF, let's make it with a clean slate, with an additional 2 yrs on a rookie contract, and a greater body of work in order to judge the potential.
Nailed it! I am not sure in what reality someone can be looking at Lance being traded after the capital they invested in him after just 2 seasons and 4 starts. And not consider that washing out of SF. If MN was in SF shoes the same people wanting Lance as the starter next season would be the most vocal dumping on MN for a terrible move. Or not, I guess maybe the hometown homer aspect would perhaps keep Lance in the good graces here in MN longer than elsewhere. I think if this was Trey Lance born and raised in Illinois, who had all of one season as a starter at Northern Iowa we wouldn't be talking about him as much on this board.
Two questions I feel that are most relevant are do the Vikes plan on extending Kirk and is this a Super Bowl team. I really liked what Kirk did last year and would like to see what he does this year, but if the team is not committed to him and this defense is not likely to take a jump to good enough to be a championship team, then it may be the right time to take a gamble for the franchise QB. Not saying it is Lance, but either making a move for him or being aggressive in this draft.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ HappyViking said:
I see two problems with the trade:
1) We'd lose our starting QB who's a proven very good player (Pro Bowl caliber).
2) We'd still need to draft a potential QBOTF.
I think Lance might be a bigger risk than a newly drafted rookie. Lance has NFL experience, and it hasn't gone very well at all. Are the odds better Lance can turn it around better than just drafting a rookie and hope he will develop into a starter?I watched about every Bison game Lance ever played in, and not once did I ever think he'd be a top rated NFL QB. Yeah, he can chuck it pretty far, but he was always a running QB; not a passing QB that can run. I thought it was crazy (and extremely desperate) that he was considered one of the top QB prospects when he was drafted. I also thought the same about Wentz.I wouldn't mind the Vikes getting Lance, but no way would I give up much for him.
This bit about Lance intrigued me at the time and still does.
Off the gridiron, Lance impressed the 49ers, and Kyle Shanahan in particular, with his mental characteristics. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Trey Lance blew the 49ers away with his psychological test scores. Lance’s smarts were ‘off the charts’. The Shanahan-Lynch brain trust value the character of a player incredibly highly. They have walked away from talented players due to off the field issues or character concerns. Attitude, drive and focus are three things that the 49ers prioritise: Trey Lance has all three in abundance.
Smarts and good character are qualities you want; especially as a starting QB. Unfortunately, proven quality playmaking ability is what is needed in the end. The Vikes said pretty much the same things about Ponder and Teddy. Lance isn't even at their level yet. I do believe the 49ers think Purdy is their future QB, and that should really open eyes on how Shanahan values Lance now compared to when he was drafted.
Leber said this morning on KFAN that it didnt sound like Lance was very impressive in the joint practices last summer, said that despite out D being a puddle of dog piss, he just wasnt impressive. so theres that.
I would rather take a shot with a kid coming out of college and have 5 years to work with him than 1 year with Lance and then have to decide on that 5th year already.
I think the bottom line is IF there is no intention on signing Kirk to another short term extension and giving him the guaranteed money he wants, then do we simply let him walk for nothing at the end of the year, or do we use his trade value now to acquire a young, high upside signal caller to build around? To me its pointless to keep Kirk for one more year while we likely win 8 or 9 games and maybe have an outside shot at the playoffs. I think realistically that is the absolute ceiling in keeping Kirk Cousins for one more season and it does nothing towards building this team long term. I think the chances of us drafting one of the top quarterbacks this year is somewhere between slim to none. We aren't in position to do so and we don't have the draft capital to move up while also addressing the numerous roster holes that still need to be filled.
And again, if the organization thought Cousins was the guy to lead them to the Super Bowl, then an extension would have already been signed! We wouldn't be out here looking at other options. The fact that it hasn't happened yet leads me to believe it won't happen, and the team wants to get off the hostage train with him and get a young guy in the fold to build around. If that takes the trading of Kirk Cousins to get that done, then to me it's a no brainer and you make that move. As always I think the big hurdle in doing anything like that is the Wilfs and their unrealistic fanboy expectations. In today's NFL sometimes you need to take a step back before you can move forward. Not everybody can be the Patriots and be Super Bowl contenders for a dozen years straight. That just doesn't happen and its not the way the league is built
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