Quote: @peacebringer said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ purplefaithful said:
Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...
Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.
Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.
The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
And yet, ESPN and other do identify that the vikings were on the positive end of the exchange. In terms of long range productivity in the slots that vikings gained a 1.1 advantage that is equivalent to 4th round slot.
Also of note, it is very clear the Cine is the player the vikings wanted, yes, over Hamilton.
No problem with Cine. Good player that everybody and his brother mocked up for us in the 2nd round. And it also wouldn't surprise me too much if he ended up a better player than Hamilton. But I have to wonder if the Vikings would've taken Elam if he hadn't been taken a few slots before.
Quote: @StickyBun said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ purplefaithful said:
Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...
Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.
Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.
The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.
Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ peacebringer said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ purplefaithful said:
Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...
Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.
Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.
The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
And yet, ESPN and other do identify that the vikings were on the positive end of the exchange. In terms of long range productivity in the slots that vikings gained a 1.1 advantage that is equivalent to 4th round slot.
Also of note, it is very clear the Cine is the player the vikings wanted, yes, over Hamilton.
No problem with Cine. Good player that everybody and his brother mocked up for us in the 2nd round. And it also wouldn't surprise me too much if he ended up a better player than Hamilton. But I have to wonder if the Vikings would've taken Elam if he hadn't been taken a few slots before.
I had checked-in and they weren't trying to move up into the earlier portions of the 20. But I did hear they liked Elam as we approached yesterday. I actually heard they liked him considerably more than McDuffie.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ purplefaithful said:
Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...
Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.
Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.
The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.
Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
Or...
Was Cine + high 3rd + moving up 1/2 round in the 2nd worth passing on Jameson Williams + letting a division rival draft him instead?
I would have been perfectly fine with Williams @ 12
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ StickyBun said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ purplefaithful said:
Spelly got very lucky trading down last year...
Viking nation would have been in flames if he wasn't able to land Darrisaw.
I'll say this - if they move up for Stingley? Its because they have the best insights of any NFL team on him, right on their coaching staff.
That said, am curious to see how this new team executes their 1st nfl draft. A trade-up would shock the heck out of me. IT hasn't been the Viking way very often.
I'm curious too. This is his first time running a draft room. Rick was a master of maneuvering around a draft to optimize value. Moving up for players like Dalvin Cook, Harrison Smith, and Tyler Conklin, to name a few, and moving down when the value wasn't there. Darrisaw is a good example. But also moving down to take Gladney (who should still be on the team), a move that netted DJ Wonnum and KJ Osborne. Or the move down a couple times to take Alexander Mattison with the last pick on day two, because he was the target and there was no need to take him at our original slot. That netted traded assets, along with Oli Udoh.
Love our new GM, but the fact that he was zero experience doing any of this has me a little concerned.
I wouldn't be too concerned since there are enough tenured members of the FO/personnel staff to keep him honest. The questions I have are more methodical. Will they be a team that is ultra aggressive, will they truly be a BPA team, or will they manipulate the board to fill their needs? We may not even know until there are 2-3 drafts under his belt.
The Browns and 49ers typically tend to stay put in round 1. Grigson did the same with the Colts. So I do wonder if that will kind of be their initial M.O. But anything is possible.
Where were those tenured members when KAM was eating his own knee caps last night?
Yeah, not much oversight of KAM on that move. There's no way to look at that move from a comp standpoint that would show any other than the Vikings got taken.
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.
Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
Or...
Was Cine + high 3rd + moving up 1/2 round in the 2nd worth passing on Jameson Williams + letting a division rival draft him instead?
I would have been perfectly fine with Williams @ 12
On talent alone, no. But take WR off the table for a moment since they eliminated it as an option or they would have taken Williams. Its comparing apples to oranges.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.
Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
I suppose you may be referencing something similar to the Fitzgerald-Speilberger chart which shows a Viking win on the trade compensation. I might caution the same chart shows the Vikings cost for moving from 12th to 9th was a 7th rounder and from 12th to 7th as a 6th rounder. Don't believe you would have located a willing partner for those proposals.
It's absolutely hilarious to me that the math people see this as a win and the others don't. Definitely a bizarre draft as far as talent goes and how it is going to play out. It is going to be interesting to watch the process. I am looking forward to seeing more.
Quote: @Vikergirl said:
It's absolutely hilarious to me that the math people see this as a win and the others don't. Definitely a bizarre draft as far as talent goes and how it is going to play out. It is going to be interesting to watch the process. I am looking forward to seeing more.
Well, you're a glutton for punishment then 
For me its more trepidation than anything...
Those guys have lost my trust in one fell swoop and I hope they win it back over time.
Quote: @Rigby said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
I don't necessarily agree with that. People keep referencing outdates trade charts and say the Viking got ran. Any analytics focused trade chart has the Vikings winning by 10-13%. There is just a lot of preconceived bias that trading back is awful since the Vikings have done it so much.
Ultimately trade charts are all in a vacuum but at the end of the day I personally think the Vikings felt if they got even value for their pick they'd move back and avoid taking a wide receiver. So long-term the question will be is Cine + a high 3rd + moving up 1/2 a round in the 2nd worth passing on Hamilton. I personally would say, yes. But it all will need to be looked at in the long-run. I personally had Cine right there with Hamilton, who I thought was overrated.
I suppose you may be referencing something similar to the Fitzgerald-Speilberger chart which shows a Viking win on the trade compensation. I might caution the same chart shows the Vikings cost for moving from 12th to 9th was a 7th rounder and from 12th to 7th as a 6th rounder. Don't believe you would have located a willing partner for those proposals.
I'm not referencing that chart specifically, but analytics charts in-general, which should be used in a vacuum. I will 100% agree they didn't "maximize" value moving back. But it ultimately comes down to two things:
1. What is your best alternative if you stay in the pick
2. What other teams are vying to move up and what are their offers
If they stayed in pick #12 it likely was going to be one of Jameson Williams, Jordan Davis, or Kyle Hamilton. Nothing wrong with any of those players but they were the choices in that slot. Eliminate a NT vs the other two and its ultimately Williams as a dynamic receiver or Hamilton.
Keeping all things equal the Vikings/Detroit trade on the old charts valued #12 at 970 pts which equals about the 15-16th overall pick. Part of that is given the weaker draft class. But lets say they need to achieve about 1,050 points to feel good about the deal using the old charts. That is roughly #29 plus #50 from KC.
So you end up with #32, #34, and #66. Otherwise #29, #46 (kept), or #50.
Assuming they were locked into Cine regardless I would rather get the different between #46 and #32 vs. #50. Booth, Mafe, etc. is much better than anyone you'd get at either #46 or #50.
So all things considered I don't think the value is awful by any means. It isn't great, but I see what the logic was none the less. Its just dependent on the players they draft actually being good.
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