Quote: @AllBS said:
@ NFL Draft Guru said:
@"BarrNone55" said:
@ NFL Draft Guru said:
I'll say it again. Bradford is playing for the franchise tag in 2018.
Most likely... And the franchise tag will be in excess of $20 million...watching what's happening in Washington, might not be a bad idea to wrap him up long term if he plays as well as I think he can with an actual OL and running game...
The nice thing about the tag is you have flexibility. I'm not a Bradford hater by any means and although you pay a bit more, the tag gives you options. Once Bradford sign an extension he is the guy for at least the next 2-3 years due to the dead money associated with a long-term deal. The tag allows you to carry Teddy if his contract tolls, allows for potential trades, and ultimately allows the Vikings to renounce Bradford's rights if they need the cap space later in the off-season.
I don't agree with the flexibility statement at all. In fact, I see it completely opposite of that. To me, the franchise option also has the highest risk to the team. If the "plan" is to go back to Teddy the following year, Bradford walks with zero compensation to the team at the end of the year. Setting yourself up for that is just stupid. A look around the league shows that a QB of Sam's talent has a lot of value and teams will pay to get it. If the plan is trade Teddy and stick with Sam, the 2-3 years of dead money "issue" isn't an issue. No matter what 1/2 to 1/3 of that dead money at a minimum, has already been determined to be paid out year 1 regardless. Considering you have to do it again the following year, either by the franchise tag or contract, that's 100% to 66% of the year 1 dead money. Not to mention it's far more expensive to the team overall. If the idea is to go back to Teddy in 2 years, he might be a bit pissed off at the team as well. 1 year for the QB could worth more than 15-20 million dollars. I'd be pissed, no doubt about it. Will they immediately franchise tag Teddy the following year, to help minimize the injury risk? The longer the Vikings take in making a decision, the more likely team chemistry is being risked. The locker-room could become easily divided. I'm sure some prefer Teddy and some prefer Sam. Maybe it's simply because of friendship and loyalty or maybe it's because they've done better while playing with one vs. the other. That's human nature and to be expected. On top of that, players are watching how the team handles situations and contracts.
In some cases the franchise tag has beneficial uses. I just can't see that as being the case with us.
The flexibility of the tag is most important in the spring of 2019 when the Vikings have a half-dozen large contracts come due. From a team perspective you can't lock yourself into Bradford until 1.) You know he is the long-term solution and 2.) Locking him up won't subsequently burn you in 2019. Presume Stafford gets extended and the franchise tag for Sam in 2018 is $23.5M. You wouldn't be locked into that amount until he signed the deal and there is no dead money left on the cap if he were traded. Teddy's trade value also directly plays into Sam's contract situation. Given that Teddy is healthy (still an unknown) the greater chance he has of becoming the Vikings long-term QB the stronger his external trade value will be. Come 2019 if Sam is the guy his extension would still be market driven and worth roughly $86M over 4 years with $45M guaranteed (signing bonus of $10M). The year one cap hit on that deal is around $24M.
2 year costs using the tag in 2017 - $23.5M + 24M = $47.5M (cash costs to team of $55M)
2 year costs of extending Sam in 2017* - $20.5M + 23M = $43.5M (cash cost to team of $49.5M)
*If Sam were to be extended in 2017 assume a deal of $82M over 4 years with $43M guaranteed (signing bonus of $10M).
Overall an extension saves the Vikings roughly $4M against the cap over two years and saves ownership $5.5M cash in years 1/2. However, year 2 is not a given under the tag and ultimately gifts the Vikings additional cap flexibility when they'll need it most. It also maximizes both Sam's and Teddy's trade values.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ minny65 said:
If the decision is neither Sam or Teddy look like the answer then we can move on from one or both and move forward for a franchise = win!
Seriously, this is a win? Finding out this team has NO QB is my nightmare scenario. I know the hype about the 2018 draft and all the allegedly-can't-miss QBs is probably making people think that starting over with a rookie QB would be OK, but I've seen that most "Year of the QBs" drafts produce more Tim Couch and Akili Smith players than anything else.
Quote: @greediron said:
@ minny65 said:
I'm all for using time to our advantage. Let the season play out. Then make the decision. If the decision is that we have to sign Bradford to a huge deal because he does really well for us = win! If the decision is Teddy is 100% healthy and plays some becuase Sam gets dinged = win! If the decision is neither Sam or Teddy look like the answer then we can move on from one or both and move forward for a franchise = win! The only real lose situation IMO is that we try and resign Sam to a huge deal well into the 20 million range and he flops. So we would be trying to save money now hoping he is the answer moving forward? I say don't do that let's use time (and maybe time healing all wounds/Teddy) on our side for once.
We have been making desperate and costly QB moves for so long that I think a cool hand will pay off in the long run.
Just a nit to pick, but I don't see that as a WIN!.
Thats what I initially thought as well, but it is a "WIN" if you consider that we will have found out that neither is a long term answer at the position and we didnt get locked into a cap killing deal before we found that out.
OK, but it would be like starving to death and being glad you died with money in your bank account.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ minny65 said:
If the decision is neither Sam or Teddy look like the answer then we can move on from one or both and move forward for a franchise = win!
Seriously, this is a win? Finding out this team has NO QB is my nightmare scenario. I know the hype about the 2018 draft and all the allegedly-can't-miss QBs is probably making people think that starting over with a rookie QB would be OK, but I've seen that most "Year of the QBs" drafts produce more Tim Couch and Akili Smith players than anything else.
Quote: @greediron said:
@ minny65 said:
I'm all for using time to our advantage. Let the season play out. Then make the decision. If the decision is that we have to sign Bradford to a huge deal because he does really well for us = win! If the decision is Teddy is 100% healthy and plays some becuase Sam gets dinged = win! If the decision is neither Sam or Teddy look like the answer then we can move on from one or both and move forward for a franchise = win! The only real lose situation IMO is that we try and resign Sam to a huge deal well into the 20 million range and he flops. So we would be trying to save money now hoping he is the answer moving forward? I say don't do that let's use time (and maybe time healing all wounds/Teddy) on our side for once.
We have been making desperate and costly QB moves for so long that I think a cool hand will pay off in the long run.
Just a nit to pick, but I don't see that as a WIN!.
Thats what I initially thought as well, but it is a "WIN" if you consider that we will have found out that neither is a long term answer at the position and we didnt get locked into a cap killing deal before we found that out.
OK, but it would be like starving to death and being glad you died with money in your bank account.
a bit of an extreme analogy... but ok.
Quote: @greediron said:
@ minny65 said:
I'm all for using time to our advantage. Let the season play out. Then make the decision. If the decision is that we have to sign Bradford to a huge deal because he does really well for us = win! If the decision is Teddy is 100% healthy and plays some becuase Sam gets dinged = win! If the decision is neither Sam or Teddy look like the answer then we can move on from one or both and move forward for a franchise = win! The only real lose situation IMO is that we try and resign Sam to a huge deal well into the 20 million range and he flops. So we would be trying to save money now hoping he is the answer moving forward? I say don't do that let's use time (and maybe time healing all wounds/Teddy) on our side for once.
We have been making desperate and costly QB moves for so long that I think a cool hand will pay off in the long run.
Just a nit to pick, but I don't see that as a WIN!.
My view of a "win" in that scenario is that we quickly realize that neither are going to be our franchise QB so we don't drag on with wishful thinking for a few years like with Ponder. Then we get aggressive in the draft which is supposed to be much deeper then last years and we have a first round pick.
I am not saying I want or think that will happen but if it turns out that Teddy can never get back and Sam flops (or also gets injured again) then we have to move on.
IMO, time is on our side for once.
Quote: @AllBS said:
@ NFL Draft Guru said:
@"BarrNone55" said:
@ NFL Draft Guru said:
I'll say it again. Bradford is playing for the franchise tag in 2018.
Most likely... And the franchise tag will be in excess of $20 million...watching what's happening in Washington, might not be a bad idea to wrap him up long term if he plays as well as I think he can with an actual OL and running game...
The nice thing about the tag is you have flexibility. I'm not a Bradford hater by any means and although you pay a bit more, the tag gives you options. Once Bradford sign an extension he is the guy for at least the next 2-3 years due to the dead money associated with a long-term deal. The tag allows you to carry Teddy if his contract tolls, allows for potential trades, and ultimately allows the Vikings to renounce Bradford's rights if they need the cap space later in the off-season.
I don't agree with the flexibility statement at all. In fact, I see it completely opposite of that. To me, the franchise option also has the highest risk to the team. If the "plan" is to go back to Teddy the following year, Bradford walks with zero compensation to the team at the end of the year. Setting yourself up for that is just stupid. A look around the league shows that a QB of Sam's talent has a lot of value and teams will pay to get it. If the plan is trade Teddy and stick with Sam, the 2-3 years of dead money "issue" isn't an issue. No matter what 1/2 to 1/3 of that dead money at a minimum, has already been determined to be paid out year 1 regardless. Considering you have to do it again the following year, either by the franchise tag or contract, that's 100% to 66% of the year 1 dead money. Not to mention it's far more expensive to the team overall. If the idea is to go back to Teddy in 2 years, he might be a bit pissed off at the team as well. 1 year for the QB could worth more than 15-20 million dollars. I'd be pissed, no doubt about it. Will they immediately franchise tag Teddy the following year, to help minimize the injury risk? The longer the Vikings take in making a decision, the more likely team chemistry is being risked. The locker-room could become easily divided. I'm sure some prefer Teddy and some prefer Sam. Maybe it's simply because of friendship and loyalty or maybe it's because they've done better while playing with one vs. the other. That's human nature and to be expected. On top of that, players are watching how the team handles situations and contracts.
In some cases the franchise tag has beneficial uses. I just can't see that as being the case with us.
Which teams are going to go after Bradford? I'll go through the NFC.
North:
Vikings - obviously not if they're letting him go.
Packers - No (Rodgers)
Lions - No (Stafford)
Bears - No (Glennon and Trub)
East:
Cowboys - No (Prescott)
Giants - No (Manning)
Eagles - No (Wentz)
Redskins - Maybe (depending on Cousins)
South:
Bucs - No (Winston)
Panthers - No (Newton)
Saints - Not yet (Brees)
Falcons - No (Ryan)
West:
Seahawks - No (Wilson)
49ers - Maybe
Rams - No (Geoff not going to give up on him by next year)
Cardinals - Maybe (Palmer retires?)
So, a QB going to his 4th team in 5 years and there's only 3 maybes in the NFC with the upcoming 2018 QB draft class also being a factor. I don't see this as being a bad thing for the Vikings at all. They hold all the leverage. If Bradford doesn't step it up this year, he is officially a journeyman/bridge/backup QB. All of the pressure is on Bradford.
Potential ARC spot to carry that thought...
AFC East
Pats-No
Bills-Maybe
Phins-Probably not
Jets-Yes as a bridge to Darnold, Rosen, or Allen
AFC North
Steelers-Maybe
Ravens-No
Bengals-No
Browns-Yes
AFC South
Texans-Probably not
Indy-No
Jags-Yes
Titans-No
AFC West
Denver-Probably not
Chargers-Yes
Raiders-No
K.C.- Maybe
Easily five QBs going in the first...Maybe 6+ spots for Bradford to land...
Quote: @"BarrNone55" said:
Potential ARC spot to carry that thought...
AFC East
Pats-No
Bills-Maybe
Phins-Probably not
Jets-Yes as a bridge to Darnold, Rosen, or Allen
AFC North
Steelers-Maybe
Ravens-No
Bengals-No
Browns-Yes
AFC South
Texans-Probably not
Indy-No
Jags-Yes
Titans-No
AFC West
Denver-Probably not
Chargers-Yes
Raiders-No
K.C.- Maybe
Easily five QBs going in the first...Maybe 6+ spots for Bradford to land...
I very much don't agree with several of these. Chargers have Rivers signed through 2018, so I definitely don't agree there (not going to pay $40 million for two QBs). The Chiefs have Smith and they traded up to get their QBOTF. Not going to give up on that by next year. The Jets aren't going to sign a QB and pay that QB 20 million to start for the first half of the season (if that). Plus, they seem like they are going for a rebuild, so why Bradford? Jags are only a maybe as they picked up Bortles 5th year, do they have him. Browns drafted a QB, we'll see what happens there, so that's another maybe. Bradford was rumored to be available last year for pretty low compensation and nobody traded for him.
This seems more like those people that thought AD was going to be a hot commodity once he hit FA.
Rivers is behind a paper mache OL...plus he's ancient...
KC is a no, agree
Jets have garbage on their roster and might not want to throw the likely top pick to the wolves...similar to what the Eagles had in place until Teddy's knee exploded...
Browns drafted a QB...true...He's not knocking it out of the park currently plus their D could come together rapidly...
Quote: @silverjoel said:
@"BarrNone55" said:
Potential ARC spot to carry that thought...
AFC East
Pats-No
Bills-Maybe
Phins-Probably not
Jets-Yes as a bridge to Darnold, Rosen, or Allen
AFC North
Steelers-Maybe
Ravens-No
Bengals-No
Browns-Yes
AFC South
Texans-Probably not
Indy-No
Jags-Yes
Titans-No
AFC West
Denver-Probably not
Chargers-Yes
Raiders-No
K.C.- Maybe
Easily five QBs going in the first...Maybe 6+ spots for Bradford to land...
I very much don't agree with several of these. Chargers have Rivers signed through 2018, so I definitely don't agree there (not going to pay $40 million for two QBs). The Chiefs have Smith and they traded up to get their QBOTF. Not going to give up on that by next year. The Jets aren't going to sign a QB and pay that QB 20 million to start for the first half of the season (if that). Plus, they seem like they are going for a rebuild, so why Bradford? Jags are only a maybe as they picked up Bortles 5th year, do they have him. Browns drafted a QB, we'll see what happens there, so that's another maybe. Bradford was rumored to be available last year for pretty low compensation and nobody traded for him.
This seems more like those people that thought AD was going to be a hot commodity once he hit FA.
There is always potential playoff teams looking for competent QB play.
What happens when Dak falls on his face this season? He really didn't do a lot last year and Romo would have been a better option in their playoff game.
Phins, may have their qb but I think he's a coin flip.
Brees, Palmer, Rothlesberger, Manning, and Rivers ain't getting younger.
Doesn't matter what year it is, potential playoff teams are always trying to fix the QB position fast in the off season. Just look at Houston and Denver this off-season fighting over Romo. If Bradford would have been a Free Agent their would have been 3 teams bidding.
Injuries happen to QBs and with that any team could be in need of a QB in the future.
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