Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
Here is the Cousins contract that would be fair for both sides. If he gets more money or a better deal elsewhere, this is the line you don't cross and let him walk away.
The below deal is for 5 years $140M ($28M AAV) with $66.5M (47.5%) guaranteed at the time of signing. The contract layout and cap hits are as follows:
2018 - Base Salary: $20,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $27,000,000 / Dead Money: ($60,000,000) / Savings: ($33,000,000)
2019 - Base Salary: $15,600,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $300,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $22,000,000 / Dead Money: ($33,100,000) / Savings: ($11,100,000)
2020 - Base Salary: $17,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $4,000,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $28,000,000 / Dead Money: ($18,000,000) / Savings: $10,000,000
2021 - Base Salary: $24,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $31,000,000 / Dead Money: ($12,000,000) / Savings: $19,000,000
2022 - Base Salary: $25,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $32,000,000 / Dead Money: ($6,000,000) / Savings: $26,000,000
If possible the Vikings would be best served utilizing their abundance of cap space in 2018 to offer a semi front loaded deal with a reduced cap hit in year two. This would allow the Vikings to retain their core players. By year three of the deal you can re-evaluate Cousins value to the team and either opt to move on from him saving $10M against the cap or make future plans by re-negotiating the contracts of Griffen, Joseph, etc.. Last off-season those deals were constructed without long-term guarantees to facilitate restructure bonuses. This structure gives the Vikings safety and flexibility.
So the question becomes, why does Cousins sign this specific deal? First and foremost at a high level it makes him the highest paid player in NFL history by both average salary and total contract value. $66.5M in guarantees at signing also sets an NFL record. But cash flow is really what matters in these types of deals. In the first year of the contract Kirk would take home $51M which ties Matthew Stafford's deal a year ago and tops Garapollo's extension by $8.4M. By the end of year three Kirk would have taken home $89M which puts him slightly behind Stafford ($92M), but ahead of the extensions for both Carr and Garapollo. Ultimately this is window dressed as a market leading deal offers strong cash flow but still contains enough upside where it should regress back to the mean once Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson sign their upcoming extensions.
the only thing I dont like is carrying that much dead money past year 3, but i suppose you have to do that to make the numbers work in the first few years.
so when you make this work in your cap scenario, how much money does this leave annually for street free agents. we know that we wont be able to fill all the holes through the draft process.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
Here is the Cousins contract that would be fair for both sides. If he gets more money or a better deal elsewhere, this is the line you don't cross and let him walk away.
The below deal is for 5 years $140M ($28M AAV) with $66.5M (47.5%) guaranteed at the time of signing. The contract layout and cap hits are as follows:
2018 - Base Salary: $20,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $27,000,000 / Dead Money: ($60,000,000) / Savings: ($33,000,000)
2019 - Base Salary: $15,600,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $300,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $22,000,000 / Dead Money: ($33,100,000) / Savings: ($11,100,000)
2020 - Base Salary: $17,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $4,000,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $28,000,000 / Dead Money: ($18,000,000) / Savings: $10,000,000
2021 - Base Salary: $24,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $31,000,000 / Dead Money: ($12,000,000) / Savings: $19,000,000
2022 - Base Salary: $25,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $32,000,000 / Dead Money: ($6,000,000) / Savings: $26,000,000
If possible the Vikings would be best served utilizing their abundance of cap space in 2018 to offer a semi front loaded deal with a reduced cap hit in year two. This would allow the Vikings to retain their core players. By year three of the deal you can re-evaluate Cousins value to the team and either opt to move on from him saving $10M against the cap or make future plans by re-negotiating the contracts of Griffen, Joseph, etc.. Last off-season those deals were constructed without long-term guarantees to facilitate restructure bonuses. This structure gives the Vikings safety and flexibility.
So the question becomes, why does Cousins sign this specific deal? First and foremost at a high level it makes him the highest paid player in NFL history by both average salary and total contract value. $66.5M in guarantees at signing also sets an NFL record. But cash flow is really what matters in these types of deals. In the first year of the contract Kirk would take home $51M which ties Matthew Stafford's deal a year ago and tops Garapollo's extension by $8.4M. By the end of year three Kirk would have taken home $89M which puts him slightly behind Stafford ($92M), but ahead of the extensions for both Carr and Garapollo. Ultimately this is window dressed as a market leading deal offers strong cash flow but still contains enough upside where it should regress back to the mean once Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson sign their upcoming extensions.
Beautiful work to lay that out. I hope it happens. I just threw out $30M as a ballpark, as I don't know the contract nuances well (obviously!)
And I'm not trying to crap on anybody else's roster/salary design, but it kind of feels like there is a mood that the Vikings need to be overly conservative at QB because we cannot risk losing ANY players, especially defenders, and by the way we need to buy another UFA 3T and CB to make Zimmer's unit that much closer to perfection...
We've got to make choices and sometimes sacrifices. If Danielle Hunter digs in his heels and won't sign here unless he gets a contract making him the highest-paid DE in the league, maybe we let him walk. Didn't Hunter - and other players on our defense - become as good as they are in large part because of the coaching of Zimmer and his staff? So isn't there a chance our crack defensive coaches could turn Bower or Weatherly into a decent DE, too?
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
At $30M you start to lose flexibility. It seems silly that $2-3M annually could throw off the cap but once you factor in roll-over, increased guaranteed money, etc... It can start the snowball effect. I am not suggesting you'd lose a key defensive starter, but you'd have to start manipulating the cap (restructure bonuses, additional pay cuts, etc) to keep veteran depth on the roster. In essence the more money you start to add past $27M ties success more and more to the middle rounds of the draft. You're expected to hit on your 1st and 2nd round picks. But now you're going to be asked to draft your replacement for Jarius Wright, Latavius Murray, etc... .
Good examples, and, again - a strong front office and coaching staff HAS to start trusting they will be able to do things like replace your #3/4 WR and your goal-line RB. If we're so scared of losing such role players that we have to pay them significantly (as they just get older), it's going to catch up to us, too. We should have confidence we can fill those spots. Finding a long-term QB is much, much harder.
Thanks, Geoff! I don't know how much work it is for you to put that together... but I (we?) sure do appreciate it!
Quote: @mgobluevikes said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ mgobluevikes said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
A lot of the resistance to signing Kirk Cousins takes some form of, "Too expensive" - this includes all forms of, "We won't be able to sign Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs/Barr etc. if we spend $30M at QB".
But didn't the Vikings' FO plan - and HOPE! - to be signing a QB to a huge multiyear deal for 2018?? Spielman's ideal scenario before last season must have been that Sam Bradford would play a full season at or near the level he showed in week 1 against New Orleans. What would be happening right now if that had played out, with Bradford healthy and coming off a 30+ TD season and playoff appearance? Well, some people might still be calling him Sleeves or grumbling about Teddy getting passed over unfairly, but there is no doubt the Vikings would be in the process of signing Bradford to a deal locking him here for the next 5 years for $125M or more. NO DOUBT.
So Spielman and Brzesinski already mapped out how to afford an expensive QB signing. Spotrac estimates the team has $53M open cap space for 2018 and that can increase (Sharrif Floyd is still listed for $6.7M..?) If the Vikings want Cousins and he is willing to come here for about $30M/year, it can be done, and without gutting the team. The money can work so it isn't about that.
convince me. do realistic contracts out for the next 2 years for our pending FAs, plus needed street FAs to fill holes for retirees or guys we let walk. leave money to cover your draft picks, and dont forget... we need to add 2 QBs this year, not just one and considering we havent had 1 QB for a whole season in a while, you better make your QB2 somebody you are willing to turn the season over to ( 3-5 million per year) in case your QB1 gets injured. and remember Rick likes to have a few million left over for emergencies. I have seen some speculation at 24 million (i think that was Gurus number) and he thought it should work, but at the 30 mark that keeps getting lofted out there, I dont see it happening. I cant figure out a way to continue to improve the rest of the roster through FA and Draft and spend 30 million a year on 1 QB.
I think the point you're missing is we would be in this position had any of our current QB's played great. So what is your point; that we should only have a tier 2 or lower QB on the roster because the rest of the team will suffer?
Like it or not this is the current market value of a franchise QB. If you think it's worth the risk of going into next season with a guy that hasn't played in 2 years, and a 55% chance that he'll fully recover, let alone develop into what we thought he could be, or going cheap on a guy with chronic knee issues, and also hasn't played in nearly a year, or rolling the dice on a guy who your coach claims to have had a horse shoe up his butt all season, you're going all in with a pair of 3's.
As Jor-El stated, Brez and Rick knew this day was coming and planned for it. With their track record with the cap you're really doubting their competence?
show me where it says they planned on spending 30 million? they were likely referring to spending in the 20 to 25 range for Sam, Teddy or other. 30 million is another monster all together. and yes, I will play my pair against what I read as a unpaired high card any day. who says all in? who says you would be all in with a prove it deal to sam or teddy? or even case for that matter.
Where does a prove it deal leave you when they prove they can't?
Both Sam and Teddy should be offered a back up position. Realistically, nobody is going to offer them a starters roll, with starters money given their physical histories right now. Case is the wild card. Maybe Flip thinks there's more there to work with than Zimmer. Not sure he would hitch his wagon to him though.
the other side of a prove it deal is lets say they do prove it (irregardlessof who) wont we be paying him 30$M in 2019 anyway? thatd make it even harder to sign all the FAs
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ Purplewhizz said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ mgobluevikes said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
A lot of the resistance to signing Kirk Cousins takes some form of, "Too expensive" - this includes all forms of, "We won't be able to sign Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs/Barr etc. if we spend $30M at QB".
But didn't the Vikings' FO plan - and HOPE! - to be signing a QB to a huge multiyear deal for 2018?? Spielman's ideal scenario before last season must have been that Sam Bradford would play a full season at or near the level he showed in week 1 against New Orleans. What would be happening right now if that had played out, with Bradford healthy and coming off a 30+ TD season and playoff appearance? Well, some people might still be calling him Sleeves or grumbling about Teddy getting passed over unfairly, but there is no doubt the Vikings would be in the process of signing Bradford to a deal locking him here for the next 5 years for $125M or more. NO DOUBT.
So Spielman and Brzesinski already mapped out how to afford an expensive QB signing. Spotrac estimates the team has $53M open cap space for 2018 and that can increase (Sharrif Floyd is still listed for $6.7M..?) If the Vikings want Cousins and he is willing to come here for about $30M/year, it can be done, and without gutting the team. The money can work so it isn't about that.
convince me. do realistic contracts out for the next 2 years for our pending FAs, plus needed street FAs to fill holes for retirees or guys we let walk. leave money to cover your draft picks, and dont forget... we need to add 2 QBs this year, not just one and considering we havent had 1 QB for a whole season in a while, you better make your QB2 somebody you are willing to turn the season over to ( 3-5 million per year) in case your QB1 gets injured. and remember Rick likes to have a few million left over for emergencies. I have seen some speculation at 24 million (i think that was Gurus number) and he thought it should work, but at the 30 mark that keeps getting lofted out there, I dont see it happening. I cant figure out a way to continue to improve the rest of the roster through FA and Draft and spend 30 million a year on 1 QB.
I think the point you're missing is we would be in this position had any of our current QB's played great. So what is your point; that we should only have a tier 2 or lower QB on the roster because the rest of the team will suffer?
Like it or not this is the current market value of a franchise QB. If you think it's worth the risk of going into next season with a guy that hasn't played in 2 years, and a 55% chance that he'll fully recover, let alone develop into what we thought he could be, or going cheap on a guy with chronic knee issues, and also hasn't played in nearly a year, or rolling the dice on a guy who your coach claims to have had a horse shoe up his butt all season, you're going all in with a pair of 3's.
As Jor-El stated, Brez and Rick knew this day was coming and planned for it. With their track record with the cap you're really doubting their competence?
show me where it says they planned on spending 30 million? they were likely referring to spending in the 20 to 25 range for Sam, Teddy or other. 30 million is another monster all together. and yes, I will play my pair against what I read as a unpaired high card any day. who says all in? who says you would be all in with a prove it deal to sam or teddy? or even case for that matter.
You seem really hung-up on $30M. Were you similarly hung-up on $20M a couple of years ago?
yes, in context yes. If I could have gotten rogers brees or brady for 20M, I would likely have done so... Culter, fuck no. on the field I see the same shit from Cousins that I saw from Cutler (minus the arrogance) I see numbers that make people wet themselves, but in clutch moments, and when the team needs him to do something special, it just doesnt happen. i want my highest paid players in the league to be those guys, especially if they are on my favorite team. remember the hardons people had for cutler? there are other examples, i might be wrong, cousins might be the next brees, and I would then be wrong about him.
we’ve been wetting ourselves for 40 years and no trophy. what makes next year any different lol
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
Here is the Cousins contract that would be fair for both sides. If he gets more money or a better deal elsewhere, this is the line you don't cross and let him walk away.
The below deal is for 5 years $140M ($28M AAV) with $66.5M (47.5%) guaranteed at the time of signing. The contract layout and cap hits are as follows:
2018 - Base Salary: $20,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $27,000,000 / Dead Money: ($60,000,000) / Savings: ($33,000,000)
2019 - Base Salary: $15,600,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $300,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $22,000,000 / Dead Money: ($33,100,000) / Savings: ($11,100,000)
2020 - Base Salary: $17,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $4,000,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $28,000,000 / Dead Money: ($18,000,000) / Savings: $10,000,000
2021 - Base Salary: $24,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $31,000,000 / Dead Money: ($12,000,000) / Savings: $19,000,000
2022 - Base Salary: $25,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $32,000,000 / Dead Money: ($6,000,000) / Savings: $26,000,000
If possible the Vikings would be best served utilizing their abundance of cap space in 2018 to offer a semi front loaded deal with a reduced cap hit in year two. This would allow the Vikings to retain their core players. By year three of the deal you can re-evaluate Cousins value to the team and either opt to move on from him saving $10M against the cap or make future plans by re-negotiating the contracts of Griffen, Joseph, etc.. Last off-season those deals were constructed without long-term guarantees to facilitate restructure bonuses. This structure gives the Vikings safety and flexibility.
So the question becomes, why does Cousins sign this specific deal? First and foremost at a high level it makes him the highest paid player in NFL history by both average salary and total contract value. $66.5M in guarantees at signing also sets an NFL record. But cash flow is really what matters in these types of deals. In the first year of the contract Kirk would take home $51M which ties Matthew Stafford's deal a year ago and tops Garapollo's extension by $8.4M. By the end of year three Kirk would have taken home $89M which puts him slightly behind Stafford ($92M), but ahead of the extensions for both Carr and Garapollo. Ultimately this is window dressed as a market leading deal offers strong cash flow but still contains enough upside where it should regress back to the mean once Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson sign their upcoming extensions.
the only thing I dont like is carrying that much dead money past year 3, but i suppose you have to do that to make the numbers work in the first few years.
so when you make this work in your cap scenario, how much money does this leave annually for street free agents. we know that we wont be able to fill all the holes through the draft process.
The higher the contract value, the higher the dead money. Just kind the nature of the beast. But if you signed Cousins to the above and re-signed Barr, Kendricks, Diggs, and Hunter you'd still be able to sign 2-3 mid-tier free agents per year given you'd be opening up cap elsewhere.
Who had a hard-on for Cutler? Equating Cousins and Cutler is ridiculous.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
Here is the Cousins contract that would be fair for both sides. If he gets more money or a better deal elsewhere, this is the line you don't cross and let him walk away.
The below deal is for 5 years $140M ($28M AAV) with $66.5M (47.5%) guaranteed at the time of signing. The contract layout and cap hits are as follows:
2018 - Base Salary: $20,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $27,000,000 / Dead Money: ($60,000,000) / Savings: ($33,000,000)
2019 - Base Salary: $15,600,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $300,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $22,000,000 / Dead Money: ($33,100,000) / Savings: ($11,100,000)
2020 - Base Salary: $17,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $4,000,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $28,000,000 / Dead Money: ($18,000,000) / Savings: $10,000,000
2021 - Base Salary: $24,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $31,000,000 / Dead Money: ($12,000,000) / Savings: $19,000,000
2022 - Base Salary: $25,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $32,000,000 / Dead Money: ($6,000,000) / Savings: $26,000,000
If possible the Vikings would be best served utilizing their abundance of cap space in 2018 to offer a semi front loaded deal with a reduced cap hit in year two. This would allow the Vikings to retain their core players. By year three of the deal you can re-evaluate Cousins value to the team and either opt to move on from him saving $10M against the cap or make future plans by re-negotiating the contracts of Griffen, Joseph, etc.. Last off-season those deals were constructed without long-term guarantees to facilitate restructure bonuses. This structure gives the Vikings safety and flexibility.
So the question becomes, why does Cousins sign this specific deal? First and foremost at a high level it makes him the highest paid player in NFL history by both average salary and total contract value. $66.5M in guarantees at signing also sets an NFL record. But cash flow is really what matters in these types of deals. In the first year of the contract Kirk would take home $51M which ties Matthew Stafford's deal a year ago and tops Garapollo's extension by $8.4M. By the end of year three Kirk would have taken home $89M which puts him slightly behind Stafford ($92M), but ahead of the extensions for both Carr and Garapollo. Ultimately this is window dressed as a market leading deal offers strong cash flow but still contains enough upside where it should regress back to the mean once Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson sign their upcoming extensions.
Beautiful work to lay that out. I hope it happens. I just threw out $30M as a ballpark, as I don't know the contract nuances well (obviously!)
And I'm not trying to crap on anybody else's roster/salary design, but it kind of feels like there is a mood that the Vikings need to be overly conservative at QB because we cannot risk losing ANY players, especially defenders, and by the way we need to buy another UFA 3T and CB to make Zimmer's unit that much closer to perfection...
We've got to make choices and sometimes sacrifices. If Danielle Hunter digs in his heels and won't sign here unless he gets a contract making him the highest-paid DE in the league, maybe we let him walk. Didn't Hunter - and other players on our defense - become as good as they are in large part because of the coaching of Zimmer and his staff? So isn't there a chance our crack defensive coaches could turn Bower or Weatherly into a decent DE, too?
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
At $30M you start to lose flexibility. It seems silly that $2-3M annually could throw off the cap but once you factor in roll-over, increased guaranteed money, etc... It can start the snowball effect. I am not suggesting you'd lose a key defensive starter, but you'd have to start manipulating the cap (restructure bonuses, additional pay cuts, etc) to keep veteran depth on the roster. In essence the more money you start to add past $27M ties success more and more to the middle rounds of the draft. You're expected to hit on your 1st and 2nd round picks. But now you're going to be asked to draft your replacement for Jarius Wright, Latavius Murray, etc... .
Good examples, and, again - a strong front office and coaching staff HAS to start trusting they will be able to do things like replace your #3/4 WR and your goal-line RB. If we're so scared of losing such role players that we have to pay them significantly (as they just get older), it's going to catch up to us, too. We should have confidence we can fill those spots. Finding a long-term QB is much, much harder.
You make a lot of good points here. Ultimately the key to being successful is finding your core squad that'll help you win games on a regular basis. The rest of the roster will turn over every few years.
But the debate on Cousins comes down to this. If you're not willing to give Case a long-term extension because you want him to replicate his 2017 success in 2018, what are you going to do if he doesn't? Maybe Bridgewater comes back but there are still plenty of unknowns there as well. There isn't a guarantee Cousins comes to MN, but passing on him does open the door for the Vikings to be sitting here next year with no QB they're comfortable with and unattractive FA options. With Cousins there are still risks but at least you know you're getting top 15 QB play for the foreseeable future.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
But the debate on Cousins comes down to this. If you're not willing to give Case a long-term extension because you want him to replicate his 2017 success in 2018, what are you going to do if he doesn't? Maybe Bridgewater comes back but there are still plenty of unknowns there as well. There isn't a guarantee Cousins comes to MN, but passing on him does open the door for the Vikings to be sitting here next year with no QB they're comfortable with and unattractive FA options. With Cousins there are still risks but at least you know you're getting top 15 QB play for the foreseeable future.
That's where I'm at: Cousins will solidify the QB spot. He doesn't have to be Tom Brady or Joe Montana to do that, but I think he will be like Matt Ryan. If we go with Keenum or Bridgewater, I see either as a 50/50 gamble and losing means rebuilding with a rookie in 2019.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
But the debate on Cousins comes down to this. If you're not willing to give Case a long-term extension because you want him to replicate his 2017 success in 2018, what are you going to do if he doesn't? Maybe Bridgewater comes back but there are still plenty of unknowns there as well. There isn't a guarantee Cousins comes to MN, but passing on him does open the door for the Vikings to be sitting here next year with no QB they're comfortable with and unattractive FA options. With Cousins there are still risks but at least you know you're getting top 15 QB play for the foreseeable future.
That's where I'm at: Cousins will solidify the QB spot. He doesn't have to be Tom Brady or Joe Montana to do that, but I think he will be like Matt Ryan. If we go with Keenum or Bridgewater, I see either as a 50/50 gamble and losing means rebuilding with a rookie in 2019.
ahem... you forgot, Kyle Sloter will be the starter in 2019. ( i kind of hope he is, just from the perspective of the team getting one right for once.) and watching the bronco fans go into melt down mode.
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