The man’s on a mission..

[badgervike]

Murkowski in particular loaded up the pork in return for her vote. Does anyone know how she stays a Senator in very Red Alaska except for ranked voting and the popularity of her father? Her views are not indicative of her primary base.

[badgervike]

The deficit really depends on whether the economy takes off or not.  They factored between $3 - 4T in deficit increase into the bill...over 10 years.  That's $400B per year.  If the economy picks up due to the stimulative activity, tax revenues will exceed the projections in the bill and debt will be reduced.  Btw, debt doesn't matter if the economy is growing....it matters a lot if the economy isn't.  It's much the same as a business taking on financing.  Financing by itself isn't bad unless the financing doesn't pay dividends.

Let's not forget that we're coming off a President who increased the debt by $8.5T in four years...or $2.125T per year...or 30.5%.  That kind of makes the $400B look good by comparison (it's not!).  The bill can't bake cuts to the Prime Rate into the projections.  Decreasing the Prime could more than halve our nearly $1T annual debt interest payments.  If you reduce Prime, that $400B per year increase disappears completely.  The spending still needs to be brought in check..and as we know..virtually any spending cuts done by Executive Action are forced to spend time in Court.  The Republicans don't have the supermajority in the Senate to make bold legislative changes such as eliminating entire departments like the Dept.  or Education.  They can't even manage to push through obvious things eliminating benefits to illegals.

I agree with you though Jimmy, we need politicians with courage which doesn't exist in Washington.  I'm a small government guy so the tax cuts are a start but as you pointed out...they need to be accompanied with real spending cuts.  Right now, we're stuck with $1T in annual debt interest payments and an expensive immigration mess that can't be solved (either way) without spending a lot of money.  The Europeans are finding out the same thing right now.

I forgot to add one important item Jimmy.  The Congressional Budget Office which scored the bill and provided the deficit projection is historically bad at factoring in growth as a result of legislation.  They handle the tax policy revenue projections pretty well.  There have been numerous times including during Trump's first term that they have missed significantly on the growth side (which creates additional unforecasted revenue).  At the end of the day, I'd bet on this all being debt neutral even if they have to tweak things along the way.  There is no way that Trump gets the Freedom caucus on board without a path to deficit neutrality.

[Waterboy]

Murkowski in particular loaded up the pork in return for her vote.  Does anyone know how she stays a Senator in very Red Alaska except for ranked voting and the popularity of her father?  Her views are not indicative of her primary base.

Ranked Choice Voting.  Libs vote for her as their second alternative.

[JimmyinSD]

I forgot to add one important item Jimmy.  The Congressional Budget Office which scored the bill and provided the deficit projection is historically bad at factoring in growth as a result of legislation.  They handle the tax policy revenue projections pretty well.  There have been numerous times including during Trump's first term that they have missed significantly on the growth side (which creates additional unforecasted revenue).  At the end of the day, I'd bet on this all being debt neutral even if they have to tweak things along the way.  There is no way that Trump gets the Freedom caucus on board without a path to deficit neutrality.

I am standing by my assessment,  I dont trust anything in DC anymore to tell the whole truth,  or to put the country first.   CBO is a bunch of bureaucrats that will sway whichever way the wind blows them to keep their jobs.  We havent seen any real debt elimination since 1955-57,  and then they gave it all back in 58.

Over all these years there have always been promises that the new plan would fix the debt problem,  the real problem is the plan is a fairy tale,  or its an old plan that doesnt work in modern times,  or the corruption just flat out doesnt allow it to happen.

My whole life we've been fed fairy tales about prosperity, and what do we do with all that prosperity... we outspend the advantages it creates.  we talk about farmers and how if they were any other business they would be out of business, well the govt has been running just like farmers do and we dont say a word to try and change the formula unless its the wrong party in charge.

we were promised that the debt would be a priority over the years and it always gets over looked,  or some other excuse comes up,  this is just not acceptable to me anymore.

[badgervike]

I am standing by my assessment,  I dont trust anything in DC anymore to tell the whole truth,  or to put the country first.   CBO is a bunch of bureaucrats that will sway whichever way the wind blows them to keep their jobs.  We havent seen any real debt elimination since 1955-57,  and then they gave it all back in 58.

Over all these years there have always been promises that the new plan would fix the debt problem,  the real problem is the plan is a fairy tale,  or its an old plan that doesnt work in modern times,  or the corruption just flat out doesnt allow it to happen.

My whole life we've been fed fairy tales about prosperity, and what do we do with all that prosperity... we outspend the advantages it creates.  we talk about farmers and how if they were any other business they would be out of business, well the govt has been running just like farmers do and we dont say a word to try and change the formula unless its the wrong party in charge.

we were promised that the debt would be a priority over the years and it always gets over looked,  or some other excuse comes up,  this is just not acceptable to me anymore.

I'm with you on the sentiment Jimmy.  I've always thought we should have a balanced budget amendment.   I was a Tea Party guy / Libertarian / Small Government guy.  All I'm saying is that historically, the CBO projections are terrible at factoring in the growth in an economy so I think the $3.5T projected deficit over 10 years will be high if the economy grows.  Clinton / Gingrich didn't eliminate the deficit by lowering spending...it was the tech boom...

[JimmyinSD]

I'm with you on the sentiment Jimmy.  I've always thought we should have a balanced budget amendment.   I was a Tea Party guy / Libertarian / Small Government guy.  All I'm saying is that historically, the CBO projections are terrible at factoring in the growth in an economy so I think the $3.5T projected deficit over 10 years will be high if the economy grows.  Clinton / Gingrich didn't eliminate the deficit by lowering spending...it was the tech boom...

I have always hated any talk about deficit,  to many people dont understand that deficit and debt are 2 totally different animals,  they hear lower deficit and somehow think that is some great accomplishment,  not understanding that it is still adding debt.

the 90s thing is likely right,  and perhaps there was legislation that opened up the gates for the tech boom and allowed that to happen, but that is a great example of how the good times are wasted. instead of paying down some debt,  they actually added about 1.4 trillion to the debt.  I can accept a balanced budget during lean times,  but when things are booming is when we need to be retiring debt,  and certainly not adding to it.

[Waterboy]

I have always hated any talk about deficit,  to many people dont understand that deficit and debt are 2 totally different animals,  they hear lower deficit and somehow think that is some great accomplishment,  not understanding that it is still adding debt.

the 90s thing is likely right,  and perhaps there was legislation that opened up the gates for the tech boom and allowed that to happen, but that is a great example of how the good times are wasted. instead of paying down some debt,  they actually added about 1.4 trillion to the debt.  I can accept a balanced budget during lean times,  but when things are booming is when we need to be retiring debt,  and certainly not adding to it.

With entitlements, debt, and defense taking up such a huge part of the budget, the only realistic alternative is to grow our way out.  I think that's why AI, Quantum Computing, and Drill Baby Drill initiatives are so vital.  I'm for a phased in mandatory 401k employer/employee program that eventually could cut a huge portion of Social Security.  I think Medicare alternatives need to be addressed with a cross party task force to figure out how spending can be contained.  

I one million percent agree with your complaints.  The problem is we're still in this mess now with few alternatives to get out.  I think the BBB while flawed starts that journey.

[JimmyinSD]

With entitlements, debt, and defense taking up such a huge part of the budget, the only realistic alternative is to grow our way out.  I think that's why AI, Quantum Computing, and Drill Baby Drill initiatives are so vital.  I'm for a phased in mandatory 401k employer/employee program that eventually could cut a huge portion of Social Security.  I think Medicare alternatives need to be addressed with a cross party task force to figure out how spending can be contained.  

I one million percent agree with your complaints.  The problem is we're still in this mess now with few alternatives to get out.  I think the BBB while flawed starts that journey.

we have never grown our way out of debt,  just hasnt happened in the history of this country.  thats the fairy tale I was referring to.  the problem with all those emerging markets,  they all lead to less jobs for our working class.  Elon is worried about the population collapse,  I look at the tech advances and wonder what the hell we need all the people we have no for with so many already choosing not to participate in the working class,  and so many more in jobs that are on the way out.

[Waterboy]

we have never grown our way out of debt,  just hasnt happened in the history of this country.  thats the fairy tale I was referring to.  the problem with all those emerging markets,  they all lead to less jobs for our working class.  Elon is worried about the population collapse,  I look at the tech advances and wonder what the hell we need all the people we have no for with so many already choosing not to participate in the working class,  and so many more in jobs that are on the way out.

We've never cut our way out of debt either.  Once again, you're focused on the past.  I'm not sure why you're referencing emerging markets.  I see Trump's tariff policy as a great answer to limiting their influence.  Trump is focusing on the jobs that matter through steel tariffs, auto tariffs, and technology.  Repatriating pharmaceuticals and rare earth development, etc. are all in the national interest.  Elon's thought is numerous baby boomers on entitlements have no one to pay for what was stolen from them for numerous decades.  I think that's where legal immigration of likely to succeed individuals makes a ton of sense.  

Trust me, I'm all for your cuts, but we also need to be realistic that this isn't happening overnight.  Steps need to be taken, and the political climate needs to align to go after entitlements.  It isn't happening yet, and I suspect by the time it does, it's going to inflict crazy pain on all of us.  So, I agree with you, but we need to do the things that help us incrementally in the meantime.  Cutting SS and Medicare through anything but efficiency just puts the liberals back in charge and we saw how much damage that did to us the last four year.

[JimmyinSD]

We've never cut our way out of debt either.  Once again, you're focused on the past.  I'm not sure why you're referencing emerging markets.  I see Trump's tariff policy as a great answer to limiting their influence.  Trump is focusing on the jobs that matter through steel tariffs, auto tariffs, and technology.  Repatriating pharmaceuticals and rare earth development, etc. are all in the national interest.  Elon's thought is numerous baby boomers on entitlements have no one to pay for what was stolen from them for numerous decades.  I think that's where legal immigration of likely to succeed individuals makes a ton of sense.  

Trust me, I'm all for your cuts, but we also need to be realistic that this isn't happening overnight.  Steps need to be taken, and the political climate needs to align to go after entitlements.  It isn't happening yet, and I suspect by the time it does, it's going to inflict crazy pain on all of us.  So, I agree with you, but we need to do the things that help us incrementally in the meantime.  Cutting SS and Medicare through anything but efficiency just puts the liberals back in charge and we saw how much damage that did to us the last four year.

I reference those emerging markets as you brought them up.  Tariffs are a short term gain,  long term pain.  as long as we keep tariffs on, other countries will do the same and our mfg wont win in foreign markets that way.  the issue at hand is blue collar jobs are decreasing, unfortunately the vast majority of Americans arent suited for more than blue collar employment.   so all this mfg that is potentially coming back will largely be automated and last time I checked, robots dont pay taxes.  those corporations will have years of depreciation tax write offs piled up due to the costs to bring the mfg back...so they arent paying taxes,  so where is all this new revenue coming from,  and how are we going to handle all the current blue collar people that lose their jobs with the rush of new AI and automation taking their positions?   

Some say AI and Automation will be the answer,  I think it just raises more questions and concerns,  we arent going to stop it,  but I dont see the rosy future that some want to paint as a result of this coming round of advancements.  

as far as SS and medicare,  those shouldnt be cut,  better managed yes, but those are programs that were funded by those that use them ( or thats how they were supposed to be)  they have been stolen from for decades,  but maybe if they want to sell off some govt land,  the proceeds need to be earmarked for those pillaged funds?  problem is,  who is going to buy billions in US land,  more than likely its people we dont want owning more land in this country.