Quote: @"StickyBun" said:
@"suncoastvike" said:
It's funny how unexcited I am for the draft this year. Guess it's been a while since I've felt the real excitement I used to. Maybe because they've drawn it out over 3 days and starting on a Thursday. Maybe it's just because I've learned that picks don't turn out like you expect when then actually play. Maybe it's just this year because they really need the unexciting Olinemen and if they don't get 1 or 2, even the more exciting picks will seem bad. I'll follow along tomorrow just not the same now.
I don't get caught up in watching the Draft anymore, haven't for about 10 years now.
Watching it on TV is such a colossal time suck, interwoven with contrived filler that is just diarrhea of the mouth.
Very interested in who they select, but absolutely don't care about viewing it on TV.
These statements sum up my feeling now and like the last 10 years or so. What's funny is they've always been true but I did used to sit thru all the sh!t they spew in eager anticipation. For our picks and other teams as well. Your right with a phone in your hand who needs it.
Reality is there are maybe 18 total players with a 1st Round grade. 2 of those were Gary and Sweat but their injury situations (and Gary never having lived up to his HS hype) will push them down.
That means someone has to get elevated. And I'm betting it's the O-Line. I believe not only Dillard/Taylor/Williams are gone but also Bradbury and maybe even Lindstrom.
So let's say McCoy is sitting there at #18 with a clear 2nd Round grade but so is Christian Wilkins by some strange set of circumstances. Which one do you take?
That was kind of my point with this post. Most of you remember how loudly I argued to not take a Defender in the 1st because any Offensive pick, no matter how much lower ranked, would help that side of the ball more.
That pick was Treadwell. Yes, he was rated about where he was picked. But it felt like a knee-jerk reaction to the run on WRs. I've learned my lesson on putting need before all else.
But hopefully I'm just being pessimistic. Maybe one of the Big 3 makes it to #18. Or at the least one or both of Bradbury/Lindstrom is sitting there.
I just have this sneaky bad feeling that teams are recognizing that this is a weird Draft with only about 16 guys with 1st Round grades and about 60 with 2nd Round grades and will reach for O-Line early and often seeing as how the 2020 Class doesn't look too good.
Throw in weak QB prospects and Sweat and Gary sliding and Minnesota will probably have to reach unless one of the guys with and true 1st Round grade slides.
We might also see more trades happening then ever before because of this funky Draft Class. Some teams will be hell bent for leather to move up and snag a true Blue Chip. Other teams will want to acquire more picks in the 2nd & 3rd where the true strength of this Draft is. Best way to do that isn't with picks but by trading players. Especially to teams that have a glaring hole at one spot that they don't see an answer for in this Draft.
This could be an epic and very surreal couple of days! As always, buckle up my purple friends, this is going to be as fun as flying through an asteroid field in a modified freighter!
FSU, you’re not wrong and i can think of another instance: in 2009 we desperately needed a RT and Michael Oher was available. Perfect obvious match to our need, right? But Childress picked Percy Harvin. OK, Harvin eventually melted down, but he clicked with Favre and was a big factor in our last decent playoff run...and Oher was a journeyman lineman who no one would know if not for The Blind Side. We picked a RT in round 2, Phil Loadholt, who was at least as productive as Oher.
Unfiortunately, this raises a contradicting factor: Vikings have been in need of offensive linemen, and de-prioritizing it, for more than a decade. The team has so rarely felt an OL was the BPA that we’re desperate: 4 viable starters on the roster and we need 6 because someone WILL get hurt.
Maybe the way to deal with the disparity between offensive line prospects is to trade up and get Dillard or Williams.
I agree with this 100%!
DON'T CHASE THE DRAFT, LET IT COME TO YOU!
This is how the Vikings got Moss. They certainly did not need him with Carter and Reed already on the team.
They missed an opportunity to do this when they took Treadwell instead of Myles Jack who for some reason fell.
What has that cost them? Well, perhaps they would not have given Barr that huge extension if they had Jack? Perhaps they would have been able trade Barr already (last year) for a high pick?
When the Vikings stupidly made the Bradford trade they lost their 2017 first round pick. It was a massive failure to not trust your backup to play out the games. IMHO. The Patriots did not panic when Brady went down and they just rolled with Matt Cassel all season. If the Vikings had of rolled with Shaun Hill and whomever else then the probable outcome would have been a couple of more losses no? I think it is reasonable to assume they would have finished around 6-10 which would have put them drafting at #9 in 2017.
Who went after that? Mahomes and Watson. Vikings had a visit with Mahomes too.
Imagine if they would have just rolled with Hill and took their lumps in 2017. Most reasonable people would have understood since Teddy's injury was just terribly unfortunate for him most of all and the team.
Perhaps the Vikings would have had Mahomes right now and not a 29 mil QB who I like but is expensive.
This year they need to take the best player with that first pick. Period.
Could be Fant, Metcalf, Sweat, Gary, Wilkins, Simmons, Ferrell, etc.
Metcalf would be an awesome pick! That would open up tons of routes for Diggs and Thielen because he is going to take the top off the defense. That kind of size and speed is hard to find.
Gary is another freak that I cant see them passing especially with Griffen likely in his last season here due to the fact that he is not going to see the rest of his contract and even has easily reached incentives that void those remaining years. Gary was not as productive as many feel he should have been at Michigan but you are not going to find those kinds of measure-ables.
I remember when they took Hunter who also did not have much production. He was good against the run as is Gary. This is something that Zimmer wants first from his defensive linemen too. Andre Patterson would likely be pounding the table for Gary because he knows what he is able to do with that kind of clay.
I will add that the money given to pass rushers this off season was ridiculous. If the Vikings can get one for cheap then they need to do it.
I still like Simmons with that first pick though.
I agree with you in theory. I just don't agree with where you have your dips and dropoffs. Or that Lindsrom, for example, is a lesser value than Gary and/or Sweat. Gary is an athletic marvel but didn't really do anything at Michigan. Why? You have to factor that in. Sweat has a heart problem. You have to factor that in as well. You'd hate for that first pick to be an all out bust. Lindstrom may not be a sexy pick, but he is probably a day-one starter with a very low bust factor IMO. At the end of the day, you have to ask what's going to help the Vikings win games? I think right now, considering our QB, our back, our wides, getting help for the offense to make those weapons go has to be at the top of the list.
Everyone seems to think value and need are mutually exclusive. The linemen who figure in between 18 and 50 are some pretty exciting prospects too.
Quote: @"suncoastvike" said:
It's funny how unexcited I am for the draft this year. Guess it's been a while since I've felt the real excitement I used to. Maybe because they've drawn it out over 3 days and starting on a Thursday. Maybe it's just because I've learned that picks don't turn out like you expect when then actually play. Maybe it's just this year because they really need the unexciting Olinemen and if they don't get 1 or 2, even the more exciting picks will seem bad. I'll follow along tomorrow just not the same now.
The nature of the team's positional needs certainly partially plays into my disinterest in this draft, especially given how difficult the transition from college to the pros is for OL. Expecting 1, if not 2, rookie OL to not only be day 1 starters, but IMPACT day 1 starters, is a little far-fetched for me to put much faith in, although stranger things have certainly happened.
My main indifference is based on WHO is setting these "tiers" of players and formulating these draft strategies. First, giving grades to players and having a philosophy for not (overly) reaching for need is not some radical, new approach to the draft that Richard created. In fact, the vast majority of teams in the league do the EXACT same thing, and have been doing so for a very long time. The difference is, obviously, a team's ability to correctly assess and grade these players. That's what separates the haves from the have-nots, not some unique approach to drafting players.
Second, I differ from most here in how I judge a teams front office success. I don't give a rat's ass about how many Pro Bowl players are drafted or how many games started said players compile in their careers. If the team doesn't WIN playoff games, then the personnel department and/or coaching staff are NOT doing their jobs effectively. Period. 2 playoff wins in 13 years is considered atrocious by most objective standards. I can't recall how many times the Patriots led the league in Pro Bowl players or leading the league in games-started-by-draftees, but I do know they lead the league (by a HUGE margin) in Championships this century. Truly great teams (the whole) EXCEED the sum of it's parts. The Vikings' parts seldom even add up to the expected sum, let alone exceed it.
I use the pro bowl players and number of starters metrics because those seem to be the drivers in the analyses I've been seeing on numerous Pro Football sites to grade a team's draft "success" over a certain time frame. Why do I think that approach is incredibly flawed? I give you 3 players : Blair Walsh, Corderelle Patterson and Teddy Bridgewater. All 3 were "Pro Bowlers" and 2 were starters (not sure if KR's are considered starters or if Paterson may have started a few games) for several years. Can anyone TRULY claim that the team's ACTUAL results during their respective tenures with the Vikings warrants the expenditure of the SEVEN draft picks that were needed to acquire these 3 players? I say absolutely NOT, but all 3 drastically skew the metrics and make them appear to be more successful draft selections than they actually WERE. (I purposely highlighted actual results, because you can't use what TB MIGHT have done in 2016/17)
Lastly, as I stated in my opening paragraph, is it reasonable to EXPECT the Vikings value board to coincide EXACTLY with their needs? That for all, or for at least 2 out of the first 3 picks, that the hallowed Spielman tiered board will align perfectly with the teams needs and players available? That an OT they have ranked 18 or higher will be there at 18 (without a higher ranked player available, of course). Or an OG that they rank, say 30, will be there at 50? Seriously? If anyone here truly has that expectation, I have some wonderful oceanfront property in Nebraska that I can sell you at a great price. If they do indeed select 2 OL in the first 3 rounds, I'm gonna have to call BS that they adhered religiously to their rankings, although I have NO doubt that will be the schpiel at the press conference(s), "We couldn't BELIEVE so-and-so was still there at pick such-and-such!"
We'll see how far the Vikings are able to go in the 2019 playoffs (if they make it at all), because that is the only true way to judge the success or failure of this draft (Ricky himself stated they need immediate, impact, year 1 players from this draft). I personally think that it SHOULD take a playoff "run" (meaning at least 2 playoff WINS) to save Ricky's and Zim's jobs. But, should they crap the bed yet again, I have a sneaking suspicion that Richard will once again find yet one more sacrificial lamb and emerge unscathed from another car-wreck of a season. That is the one aspect of his overall performance during his time with the Vikings that I give him an A+ grade, no doubt about it.
Regardless, the draft should have some mildly compelling story lines, but I'll occupy my time with something more interesting and productive, like filing down the corns on my pinkey toes.
Quote: @"njvike" said:
@"suncoastvike" said:
It's funny how unexcited I am for the draft this year. Guess it's been a while since I've felt the real excitement I used to. Maybe because they've drawn it out over 3 days and starting on a Thursday. Maybe it's just because I've learned that picks don't turn out like you expect when then actually play. Maybe it's just this year because they really need the unexciting Olinemen and if they don't get 1 or 2, even the more exciting picks will seem bad. I'll follow along tomorrow just not the same now.
The nature of the team's positional needs certainly partially plays into my disinterest in this draft, especially given how difficult the transition from college to the pros is for OL. Expecting 1, if not 2, rookie OL to not only be day 1 starters, but IMPACT day 1 starters, is a little far-fetched for me to put much faith in, although stranger things have certainly happened.
My main indifference is based on WHO is setting these "tiers" of players and formulating these draft strategies. First, giving grades to players and having a philosophy for not (overly) reaching for need is not some radical, new approach to the draft that Richard created. In fact, the vast majority of teams in the league do the EXACT same thing, and have been doing so for a very long time. The difference is, obviously, a team's ability to correctly assess and grade these players. That's what separates the haves from the have-nots, not some unique approach to drafting players.
Second, I differ from most here in how I judge a teams front office success. I don't give a rat's ass about how many Pro Bowl players are drafted or how many games started said players compile in their careers. If the team doesn't WIN playoff games, then the personnel department and/or coaching staff are NOT doing their jobs effectively. Period. 2 playoff wins in 13 years is considered atrocious by most objective standards. I can't recall how many times the Patriots led the league in Pro Bowl players or leading the league in games-started-by-draftees, but I do know they lead the league (by a HUGE margin) in Championships this century. Truly great teams (the whole) EXCEED the sum of it's parts. The Vikings' parts seldom even add up to the expected sum, let alone exceed it.
I use the pro bowl players and number of starters metrics because those seem to be the drivers in the analyses I've been seeing on numerous Pro Football sites to grade a team's draft "success" over a certain time frame. Why do I think that approach is incredibly flawed? I give you 3 players : Blair Walsh, Corderelle Patterson and Teddy Bridgewater. All 3 were "Pro Bowlers" and 2 were starters (not sure if KR's are considered starters or if Paterson may have started a few games) for several years. Can anyone TRULY claim that the team's ACTUAL results during their respective tenures with the Vikings warrants the expenditure of the SEVEN draft picks that were needed to acquire these 3 players? I say absolutely NOT, but all 3 drastically skew the metrics and make them appear to be more successful draft selections than they actually WERE. (I purposely highlighted actual results, because you can't use what TB MIGHT have done in 2016/17)
Lastly, as I stated in my opening paragraph, is it reasonable to EXPECT the Vikings value board to coincide EXACTLY with their needs? That for all, or for at least 2 out of the first 3 picks, that the hallowed Spielman tiered board will align perfectly with the teams needs and players available? That an OT they have ranked 18 or higher will be there at 18 (without a higher ranked player available, of course). Or an OG that they rank, say 30, will be there at 50? Seriously? If anyone here truly has that expectation, I have some wonderful oceanfront property in Nebraska that I can sell you at a great price. If they do indeed select 2 OL in the first 3 rounds, I'm gonna have to call BS that they adhered religiously to their rankings, although I have NO doubt that will be the schpiel at the press conference(s), "We couldn't BELIEVE so-and-so was still there at pick such-and-such!"
We'll see how far the Vikings are able to go in the 2019 playoffs (if they make it at all), because that is the only true way to judge the success or failure of this draft (Ricky himself stated they need immediate, impact, year 1 players from this draft). I personally think that it SHOULD take a playoff "run" (meaning at least 2 playoff WINS) to save Ricky's and Zim's jobs. But, should they crap the bed yet again, I have a sneaking suspicion that Richard will once again find yet one more sacrificial lamb and emerge unscathed from another car-wreck of a season. That is the one aspect of his overall performance during his time with the Vikings that I give him an A+ grade, no doubt about it.
Regardless, the draft should have some mildly compelling story lines, but I'll occupy my time with something more interesting and productive, like filing down the corns on my pinkey toes.
I don't really expect them to find 2 day one starters on the Oline in this draft. I expect them to try hard. They have their full compliment of picks rd 1-4. I would not be surprised if 2 of them were oline.
I think they do step outside the BPA box this year. Just the draft is not something I study or am all that into. I'm usually dependent on others to fill me in. Not them ones on the TV though.
I'm just disinterested not salty.
Quote: @"suncoastvike" said:
@"StickyBun" said:
@"suncoastvike" said:
It's funny how unexcited I am for the draft this year. Guess it's been a while since I've felt the real excitement I used to. Maybe because they've drawn it out over 3 days and starting on a Thursday. Maybe it's just because I've learned that picks don't turn out like you expect when then actually play. Maybe it's just this year because they really need the unexciting Olinemen and if they don't get 1 or 2, even the more exciting picks will seem bad. I'll follow along tomorrow just not the same now.
I don't get caught up in watching the Draft anymore, haven't for about 10 years now.
Watching it on TV is such a colossal time suck, interwoven with contrived filler that is just diarrhea of the mouth.
Very interested in who they select, but absolutely don't care about viewing it on TV.
These statements sum up my feeling now and like the last 10 years or so. What's funny is they've always been true but I did used to sit thru all the sh!t they spew in eager anticipation. For our picks and other teams as well. Your right with a phone in your hand who needs it.
YouTube has become such a good source of highlights that even if you decide to tune all that shit out and watch for the suspense of podium announcements... you're probably going to be disappointed in the coverage of the player taken. After being told for the 200th time that "X player is special," you'll get a 2 clip "highlight package.." not only could you whip out your phone for selection coverage, you could have whipped out your phone and found more video than what was presented.
Go beyond a decade ago and there is a drastic difference in what was available online vs. television. You had to watch the draft to access those clips. Hell, watching pre-draft coverage everyday 3 months out was a great way to see those clips... Now days the amount of highlights available seems to quadruple every year; you could wait until August to read about our draft and still find those players' highlights anywhere you wanted...
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