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Anthony Barr Predictions
#11
Look at what Kalili got and everybody laughed. We’ll think the same thing when Barr leaves. 
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#12
Quote: @MarkSP18 said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
They'll make the decision at the combine and it will come down to two separate things. 

1. Can they resign Sheldon Richardson? If the answer is yes I believe they'd be best served going down that route. That move basically assures Barr will hit unrestricted free agency and leave MN. 

2. If they cannot lock up Sheldon I'd at least expect them to attempt tagging & trading Barr. The $15M price tag is palatable for a team willing to play him at the LOS. In that scenario the tag wouldn't prohibit an extension. The reason the Richardson extension comes into play is that you'd need the $15M in cap space to facilitate the tag & trade. This also gives the Vikings "some" control over where he goes and at least makes sure he's out of the NFCN.

3. The only reason I include three at all is because I don't think the Vikings would turn down an extension if it was in the ballpark of $12M/yr. However for that to happen Barr would need to come down a ways. 
How can the Vikings tag Barr?  I know they can tag him now but when the new league year begins they need to have that 15 mil in cap space.  They cant start the new league year under the cap if I am not mistaken.
So that would mean some other people would get cut.  Which players would get cut and which would agree to a restructure?  I know people often talk about restructures but the players have to agree.
I think it would be one of the most stupidest decisions this front office has made and they have made some dumb ones.  Letting Allen get his last year without any desire to extend him beyond that year and with Griffen waiting in the wings.  Letting Kalil get his last year even though he was nowhere near worth 11 mil.  Using the #62 & #93 picks to move up for Toby Gerhart after AP just finished an 1800 plus yard season.  The list goes on.
Barr and his agent could decide to not sign the tag which would severely limit the Vikings in free agency since they will not have much cap space if they use up 15 mil on Barr.
Lastly, and more importantly, when did Barr become worthy of a top 3-4 OLB contract?  What team is going to pay him 15 mil when he has zero seasons proving that he is able to play that roles at a high level?  I keep reading stuff like this and it is totally perplexing to me.
If I am a GM, I definitely would NOT pay Barr 15 mil to be a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE when he has never had more than 4 sacks.  No freaking way.

They could:
1. Waive Everson Griffen.
2. Take the ~$10.5M saved, and maybe a bit more, and put it on the table. Bring Barr into the room, offer him a contract AND a promise that he will get 25% of his snaps rushing from DE. He might also need a contract clause that gives him the chance to opt out in a year or two if he isn't happy with the way he is actually used.
This keeps one of Zimmer's favorite players, and lets Barr stay where he is comfortable but also lets him do what he thinks will let him make a bigger impact: rush the passer. We also use Barr to add a little "juice" to the rush Weatherly provides as Griffen's replacement.
As for where you find the space if it takes more like $12M/year to keep Barr, there is $5.5M allocated to Andrew Sendejo with zero dead cap. Maybe we use a couple million of that to keep Anthony Harris, but there should be enough to cover Barr. I think the Vikes will also ask Mike Remmers and Kyle Rudolph to restructure their deals, but earmark that for an offensive lineman in free agency.
And, MarkSP18, I am in agreement with you about some past stupid decisions by this organization, and I'm not saying this much effort to keep Barr is what I would do. But I think Zimmer considers him a keystone for his defense, and has not groomed enough depth at LB to feel comfortable losing him.


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#13
Quote: @MarkSP18 said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
They'll make the decision at the combine and it will come down to two separate things. 

1. Can they resign Sheldon Richardson? If the answer is yes I believe they'd be best served going down that route. That move basically assures Barr will hit unrestricted free agency and leave MN. 

2. If they cannot lock up Sheldon I'd at least expect them to attempt tagging & trading Barr. The $15M price tag is palatable for a team willing to play him at the LOS. In that scenario the tag wouldn't prohibit an extension. The reason the Richardson extension comes into play is that you'd need the $15M in cap space to facilitate the tag & trade. This also gives the Vikings "some" control over where he goes and at least makes sure he's out of the NFCN.

3. The only reason I include three at all is because I don't think the Vikings would turn down an extension if it was in the ballpark of $12M/yr. However for that to happen Barr would need to come down a ways. 
How can the Vikings tag Barr?  I know they can tag him now but when the new league year begins they need to have that 15 mil in cap space.  They cant start the new league year under the cap if I am not mistaken.
So that would mean some other people would get cut.  Which players would get cut and which would agree to a restructure?  I know people often talk about restructures but the players have to agree.
I think it would be one of the most stupidest decisions this front office has made and they have made some dumb ones.  Letting Allen get his last year without any desire to extend him beyond that year and with Griffen waiting in the wings.  Letting Kalil get his last year even though he was nowhere near worth 11 mil.  Using the #62 & #93 picks to move up for Toby Gerhart after AP just finished an 1800 plus yard season.  The list goes on.
Barr and his agent could decide to not sign the tag which would severely limit the Vikings in free agency since they will not have much cap space if they use up 15 mil on Barr.
Lastly, and more importantly, when did Barr become worthy of a top 3-4 OLB contract?  What team is going to pay him 15 mil when he has zero seasons proving that he is able to play that roles at a high level?  I keep reading stuff like this and it is totally perplexing to me.
If I am a GM, I definitely would NOT pay Barr 15 mil to be a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE when he has never had more than 4 sacks.  No freaking way.
It's pretty straight forward transaction and wouldn't be outside what the Vikings are going to do cap wise regardless if they tag him or not. They just need to make 3 moves to make it work. 

1. Cut Sendejo (pretty much a give)
2. Cut/Trade Remmers (likely) 
3. Renegotiate one of Everson, Linval, Harrison, or Xavier (a given) 

After those three moves they have tender Harris, all of their ERFA's and Rashod Hill if they choose to. They'd also still have $2-5M in cap space beyond that depending who they restructure. Once they move Barr they'd be back to about $20M in cap space with their expensive in-house deals finished.

As for the chance Barr wouldn't sign the tag, that'd be crazy. They're trying to establish his value and the tag does that and with a team lined up to trade for him they can easily get a commitment for $15M+ APY. Just to play out your scenario where he wouldn't sign the tag, the Vikings could simply rescind it and get their cap space back. 

Someone is going to pay Barr for what he can become in their system and the going rate for a FA edge rusher coming off their rookie deal is at minimum $12M. Add the 20-25% free agency market up charge and you're right at $15M a year. 
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#14
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@MarkSP18 said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
They'll make the decision at the combine and it will come down to two separate things. 

1. Can they resign Sheldon Richardson? If the answer is yes I believe they'd be best served going down that route. That move basically assures Barr will hit unrestricted free agency and leave MN. 

2. If they cannot lock up Sheldon I'd at least expect them to attempt tagging & trading Barr. The $15M price tag is palatable for a team willing to play him at the LOS. In that scenario the tag wouldn't prohibit an extension. The reason the Richardson extension comes into play is that you'd need the $15M in cap space to facilitate the tag & trade. This also gives the Vikings "some" control over where he goes and at least makes sure he's out of the NFCN.

3. The only reason I include three at all is because I don't think the Vikings would turn down an extension if it was in the ballpark of $12M/yr. However for that to happen Barr would need to come down a ways. 
How can the Vikings tag Barr?  I know they can tag him now but when the new league year begins they need to have that 15 mil in cap space.  They cant start the new league year under the cap if I am not mistaken.
So that would mean some other people would get cut.  Which players would get cut and which would agree to a restructure?  I know people often talk about restructures but the players have to agree.
I think it would be one of the most stupidest decisions this front office has made and they have made some dumb ones.  Letting Allen get his last year without any desire to extend him beyond that year and with Griffen waiting in the wings.  Letting Kalil get his last year even though he was nowhere near worth 11 mil.  Using the #62 & #93 picks to move up for Toby Gerhart after AP just finished an 1800 plus yard season.  The list goes on.
Barr and his agent could decide to not sign the tag which would severely limit the Vikings in free agency since they will not have much cap space if they use up 15 mil on Barr.
Lastly, and more importantly, when did Barr become worthy of a top 3-4 OLB contract?  What team is going to pay him 15 mil when he has zero seasons proving that he is able to play that roles at a high level?  I keep reading stuff like this and it is totally perplexing to me.
If I am a GM, I definitely would NOT pay Barr 15 mil to be a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE when he has never had more than 4 sacks.  No freaking way.

They could:
1. Waive Everson Griffen.
2. Take the ~$10.5M saved, and maybe a bit more, and put it on the table. Bring Barr into the room, offer him a contract AND a promise that he will get 25% of his snaps rushing from DE. He might also need a contract clause that gives him the chance to opt out in a year or two if he isn't happy with the way he is actually used.
This keeps one of Zimmer's favorite players, and lets Barr stay where he is comfortable but also lets him do what he thinks will let him make a bigger impact: rush the passer. We also use Barr to add a little "juice" to the rush Weatherly provides as Griffen's replacement.
As for where you find the space if it takes more like $12M/year to keep Barr, there is $5.5M allocated to Andrew Sendejo with zero dead cap. Maybe we use a couple million of that to keep Anthony Harris, but there should be enough to cover Barr. I think the Vikes will also ask Mike Remmers and Kyle Rudolph to restructure their deals, but earmark that for an offensive lineman in free agency.
And, MarkSP18, I am in agreement with you about some past stupid decisions by this organization, and I'm not saying this much effort to keep Barr is what I would do. But I think Zimmer considers him a keystone for his defense, and has not groomed enough depth at LB to feel comfortable losing him.


I don't think the Vikings would ever go above $12M/yr for Barr. Carrying two high priced LB's isn't very sustainable in a 4-3 defense. The only way you could begin to make the case is if you were going to remove Everson from the equation and play Barr at the LOS on pure pass rushing downs. Even then its questionable. 

The only way Barr would get a contract  >$12M/yr from the Vikings is if it included funny money he'd never actually see or is highly incentive laden to ensure the team is paying for an elite pass rusher vs. above-average off the ball LB.  
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#15
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@MarkSP18 said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
They'll make the decision at the combine and it will come down to two separate things. 

1. Can they resign Sheldon Richardson? If the answer is yes I believe they'd be best served going down that route. That move basically assures Barr will hit unrestricted free agency and leave MN. 

2. If they cannot lock up Sheldon I'd at least expect them to attempt tagging & trading Barr. The $15M price tag is palatable for a team willing to play him at the LOS. In that scenario the tag wouldn't prohibit an extension. The reason the Richardson extension comes into play is that you'd need the $15M in cap space to facilitate the tag & trade. This also gives the Vikings "some" control over where he goes and at least makes sure he's out of the NFCN.

3. The only reason I include three at all is because I don't think the Vikings would turn down an extension if it was in the ballpark of $12M/yr. However for that to happen Barr would need to come down a ways. 
How can the Vikings tag Barr?  I know they can tag him now but when the new league year begins they need to have that 15 mil in cap space.  They cant start the new league year under the cap if I am not mistaken.
So that would mean some other people would get cut.  Which players would get cut and which would agree to a restructure?  I know people often talk about restructures but the players have to agree.
I think it would be one of the most stupidest decisions this front office has made and they have made some dumb ones.  Letting Allen get his last year without any desire to extend him beyond that year and with Griffen waiting in the wings.  Letting Kalil get his last year even though he was nowhere near worth 11 mil.  Using the #62 & #93 picks to move up for Toby Gerhart after AP just finished an 1800 plus yard season.  The list goes on.
Barr and his agent could decide to not sign the tag which would severely limit the Vikings in free agency since they will not have much cap space if they use up 15 mil on Barr.
Lastly, and more importantly, when did Barr become worthy of a top 3-4 OLB contract?  What team is going to pay him 15 mil when he has zero seasons proving that he is able to play that roles at a high level?  I keep reading stuff like this and it is totally perplexing to me.
If I am a GM, I definitely would NOT pay Barr 15 mil to be a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE when he has never had more than 4 sacks.  No freaking way.
It's pretty straight forward transaction and wouldn't be outside what the Vikings are going to do cap wise regardless if they tag him or not. They just need to make 3 moves to make it work. 

1. Cut Sendejo (pretty much a give)
2. Cut/Trade Remmers (likely) 
3. Renegotiate one of Everson, Linval, Harrison, or Xavier (a given) 

After those three moves they have tender Harris, all of their ERFA's and Rashod Hill if they choose to. They'd also still have $2-5M in cap space beyond that depending who they restructure. Once they move Barr they'd be back to about $20M in cap space with their expensive in-house deals finished.

As for the chance Barr wouldn't sign the tag, that'd be crazy. They're trying to establish his value and the tag does that and with a team lined up to trade for him they can easily get a commitment for $15M+ APY. Just to play out your scenario where he wouldn't sign the tag, the Vikings could simply rescind it and get their cap space back. 

Someone is going to pay Barr for what he can become in their system and the going rate for a FA edge rusher coming off their rookie deal is at minimum $12M. Add the 20-25% free agency market up charge and you're right at $15M a year. 
I don't like it.  They should have traded him last year if that was the going to be their position.  Why haven't they gotten a deal done yet anyway?  You made mention to a difference in opinion on his worth.  I guess that is what's going on.
I think they should just let him go test the market rather than attempt to find some team willing to trade for him.  I know the Dolphins did that with Landry but I do not think Spielman is capable of not getting hosed.  Roseman bent him over fierce in the Bradford trade.
I will disagree with you about some team paying Barr for what he will become.  If there is a team dumb enough to do that AND give up a draft pick then I will gladly admit I am wrong.
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#16
Quote: @MarkSP18 said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@MarkSP18 said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
They'll make the decision at the combine and it will come down to two separate things. 

1. Can they resign Sheldon Richardson? If the answer is yes I believe they'd be best served going down that route. That move basically assures Barr will hit unrestricted free agency and leave MN. 

2. If they cannot lock up Sheldon I'd at least expect them to attempt tagging & trading Barr. The $15M price tag is palatable for a team willing to play him at the LOS. In that scenario the tag wouldn't prohibit an extension. The reason the Richardson extension comes into play is that you'd need the $15M in cap space to facilitate the tag & trade. This also gives the Vikings "some" control over where he goes and at least makes sure he's out of the NFCN.

3. The only reason I include three at all is because I don't think the Vikings would turn down an extension if it was in the ballpark of $12M/yr. However for that to happen Barr would need to come down a ways. 
How can the Vikings tag Barr?  I know they can tag him now but when the new league year begins they need to have that 15 mil in cap space.  They cant start the new league year under the cap if I am not mistaken.
So that would mean some other people would get cut.  Which players would get cut and which would agree to a restructure?  I know people often talk about restructures but the players have to agree.
I think it would be one of the most stupidest decisions this front office has made and they have made some dumb ones.  Letting Allen get his last year without any desire to extend him beyond that year and with Griffen waiting in the wings.  Letting Kalil get his last year even though he was nowhere near worth 11 mil.  Using the #62 & #93 picks to move up for Toby Gerhart after AP just finished an 1800 plus yard season.  The list goes on.
Barr and his agent could decide to not sign the tag which would severely limit the Vikings in free agency since they will not have much cap space if they use up 15 mil on Barr.
Lastly, and more importantly, when did Barr become worthy of a top 3-4 OLB contract?  What team is going to pay him 15 mil when he has zero seasons proving that he is able to play that roles at a high level?  I keep reading stuff like this and it is totally perplexing to me.
If I am a GM, I definitely would NOT pay Barr 15 mil to be a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE when he has never had more than 4 sacks.  No freaking way.
It's pretty straight forward transaction and wouldn't be outside what the Vikings are going to do cap wise regardless if they tag him or not. They just need to make 3 moves to make it work. 

1. Cut Sendejo (pretty much a give)
2. Cut/Trade Remmers (likely) 
3. Renegotiate one of Everson, Linval, Harrison, or Xavier (a given) 

After those three moves they have tender Harris, all of their ERFA's and Rashod Hill if they choose to. They'd also still have $2-5M in cap space beyond that depending who they restructure. Once they move Barr they'd be back to about $20M in cap space with their expensive in-house deals finished.

As for the chance Barr wouldn't sign the tag, that'd be crazy. They're trying to establish his value and the tag does that and with a team lined up to trade for him they can easily get a commitment for $15M+ APY. Just to play out your scenario where he wouldn't sign the tag, the Vikings could simply rescind it and get their cap space back. 

Someone is going to pay Barr for what he can become in their system and the going rate for a FA edge rusher coming off their rookie deal is at minimum $12M. Add the 20-25% free agency market up charge and you're right at $15M a year. 
I don't like it.  They should have traded him last year if that was the going to be their position.  Why haven't they gotten a deal done yet anyway?  You made mention to a difference in opinion on his worth.  I guess that is what's going on.
I think they should just let him go test the market rather than attempt to find some team willing to trade for him.  I know the Dolphins did that with Landry but I do not think Spielman is capable of not getting hosed.  Roseman bent him over fierce in the Bradford trade.
I will disagree with you about some team paying Barr for what he will become.  If there is a team dumb enough to do that AND give up a draft pick then I will gladly admit I am wrong.
Money is the biggest constraint on why they didn't get an extension. When conversations ended last off-season there was a major gap between Barr's camp and the Vikings. Aside from position his situation is very similar to Sammy Watkins last year. Regardless of his film a team is going to pay him off potential and pedigree. Barr's reps will market him as a 4 time pro bowler, former top 10 draft pick, and a key component of one of the leagues best defenses. A similar argument made Watkins a top paid WR with crazy guaranteed money. Unrestricted free agency is just a different beast. 



 
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#17
Just a hunch, but I think Barr's high asking price is an indication he would rather play elsewhere. It takes two to tango and I suspect he won't be motivated to take a home town discount. Not based on fact. Just a feeling.
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#18
Quote: @jargomcfargo said:
Just a hunch, but I think Barr's high asking price is an indication he would rather play elsewhere. It takes two to tango and I suspect he won't be motivated to take a home town discount. Not based on fact. Just a feeling.

Mix in his remarks about wishing he could rush the passer more.
He's an odd case because most people consider him best suited to a 3-4. It's almost like a player who gets drafted, then the coaching staff changes and he doesn't fit the new scheme. A guy like that leaves in FA and the team doesn't make a fuss.
But we didn't change schemes. Our head coach was given heavy influence to use the 9th overall pick to select a cornerstone for his defense, and he picked Barr. Think about that: Zimmer could have had Aaron Donald, Ryan Shazier, CJ Mosely, Kyle Fuller, Dee Ford, or DeMarcus Lawrence - but he wanted Barr more.
I'm not denying the reasoning behind anyone saying it makes sense to let Barr go. I just don't believe Zimmer will put up with that happening.


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#19
Barr is a freak, but he has one move to the qb, speed and dip.  Other than that he is a chase LB.  He could make more pro bowls if a coach is willing to give him more freedom, but he is not a dominant player. I like football players that hit
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#20
Quote: @jargomcfargo said:
Just a hunch, but I think Barr's high asking price is an indication he would rather play elsewhere. It takes two to tango and I suspect he won't be motivated to take a home town discount. Not based on fact. Just a feeling.
I agree with you but I don't blame Barr. If what Guru is saying is correct, which it usually is, then he can get more money on the open market. That, plus the chance to rush the QB more is what he seems to want. So why wouldn't he try to become a free agent? Nothing the Vikings did wrong, it might just make sense for both sides to part ways.
I hope he stays but if he doesn't, then I'll remember him as a good player for us.
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