Quote: @Jor-El said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ mgobluevikes said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
A lot of the resistance to signing Kirk Cousins takes some form of, "Too expensive" - this includes all forms of, "We won't be able to sign Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs/Barr etc. if we spend $30M at QB".
But didn't the Vikings' FO plan - and HOPE! - to be signing a QB to a huge multiyear deal for 2018?? Spielman's ideal scenario before last season must have been that Sam Bradford would play a full season at or near the level he showed in week 1 against New Orleans. What would be happening right now if that had played out, with Bradford healthy and coming off a 30+ TD season and playoff appearance? Well, some people might still be calling him Sleeves or grumbling about Teddy getting passed over unfairly, but there is no doubt the Vikings would be in the process of signing Bradford to a deal locking him here for the next 5 years for $125M or more. NO DOUBT.
So Spielman and Brzesinski already mapped out how to afford an expensive QB signing. Spotrac estimates the team has $53M open cap space for 2018 and that can increase (Sharrif Floyd is still listed for $6.7M..?) If the Vikings want Cousins and he is willing to come here for about $30M/year, it can be done, and without gutting the team. The money can work so it isn't about that.
convince me. do realistic contracts out for the next 2 years for our pending FAs, plus needed street FAs to fill holes for retirees or guys we let walk. leave money to cover your draft picks, and dont forget... we need to add 2 QBs this year, not just one and considering we havent had 1 QB for a whole season in a while, you better make your QB2 somebody you are willing to turn the season over to ( 3-5 million per year) in case your QB1 gets injured. and remember Rick likes to have a few million left over for emergencies. I have seen some speculation at 24 million (i think that was Gurus number) and he thought it should work, but at the 30 mark that keeps getting lofted out there, I dont see it happening. I cant figure out a way to continue to improve the rest of the roster through FA and Draft and spend 30 million a year on 1 QB.
I think the point you're missing is we would be in this position had any of our current QB's played great. So what is your point; that we should only have a tier 2 or lower QB on the roster because the rest of the team will suffer?
Like it or not this is the current market value of a franchise QB. If you think it's worth the risk of going into next season with a guy that hasn't played in 2 years, and a 55% chance that he'll fully recover, let alone develop into what we thought he could be, or going cheap on a guy with chronic knee issues, and also hasn't played in nearly a year, or rolling the dice on a guy who your coach claims to have had a horse shoe up his butt all season, you're going all in with a pair of 3's.
As Jor-El stated, Brez and Rick knew this day was coming and planned for it. With their track record with the cap you're really doubting their competence?
show me where it says they planned on spending 30 million? they were likely referring to spending in the 20 to 25 range for Sam, Teddy or other. 30 million is another monster all together. and yes, I will play my pair against what I read as a unpaired high card any day. who says all in? who says you would be all in with a prove it deal to sam or teddy? or even case for that matter.
I don't agree that 30 million is "another monster" than 25 million. It's another $5 million, it's inflation at the top position, it's something like, "Oh I guess we can't have Latavius Murray as Dalvin Cook's backup". They're going to have $60M in cap space after they cut Floyd, what are you going to do with it? Bet that $10M for Sheldon Richardson will put us over the top?
Maybe we won't be able to sign every internal FA and a wish list of street FAs for the next two years, or have a $5M/year backup QB. Maybe Hunter or Diggs need to play out their contracts, or we lose Trae Waynes after his 5th year. Do all of those really matter more than getting a healthy QB in his prime who can get this offense to consistently put up points to win championship games???
This team almost went to the SB and QB is their weak spot. If they fart around at that position, roll the dice with some strategy of "Let's see if Teddy's knee holds up and he gets better than he was in 2015" or "See if Case can be lucky for another year" and that fails...well, they won't have to worry about finding money for free agents, because players won't come to or stay with a team that's going to start over with Ryan Sloter and a rookie in 2019.
Sign Cousins. Field a championship offense. Win a Super Bowl. Quit worrying about a 5-year budget.
you dont have to agree, just like i dont agree that cousins puts this O into championship caliber any more than a healthy Teddy or Sam would at half the price. 5 million a year is another player, 10 to 15 million a year is another star player. ive laid it out several times that 60 million doesnt go very far IMO if you spend 30 on 1 player who isnt a top tier guy that is capable of carrying a team. its cool if you dont agree with me.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
A lot of the resistance to signing Kirk Cousins takes some form of, "Too expensive" - this includes all forms of, "We won't be able to sign Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs/Barr etc. if we spend $30M at QB".
But didn't the Vikings' FO plan - and HOPE! - to be signing a QB to a huge multiyear deal for 2018?? Spielman's ideal scenario before last season must have been that Sam Bradford would play a full season at or near the level he showed in week 1 against New Orleans. What would be happening right now if that had played out, with Bradford healthy and coming off a 30+ TD season and playoff appearance? Well, some people might still be calling him Sleeves or grumbling about Teddy getting passed over unfairly, but there is no doubt the Vikings would be in the process of signing Bradford to a deal locking him here for the next 5 years for $125M or more. NO DOUBT.
So Spielman and Brzesinski already mapped out how to afford an expensive QB signing. Spotrac estimates the team has $53M open cap space for 2018 and that can increase (Sharrif Floyd is still listed for $6.7M..?) If the Vikings want Cousins and he is willing to come here for about $30M/year, it can be done, and without gutting the team. The money can work so it isn't about that.
convince me. do realistic contracts out for the next 2 years for our pending FAs, plus needed street FAs to fill holes for retirees or guys we let walk. leave money to cover your draft picks, and dont forget... we need to add 2 QBs this year, not just one and considering we havent had 1 QB for a whole season in a while, you better make your QB2 somebody you are willing to turn the season over to ( 3-5 million per year) in case your QB1 gets injured. and remember Rick likes to have a few million left over for emergencies. I have seen some speculation at 24 million (i think that was Gurus number) and he thought it should work, but at the 30 mark that keeps getting lofted out there, I dont see it happening. I cant figure out a way to continue to improve the rest of the roster through FA and Draft and spend 30 million a year on 1 QB.
I have laid out contracts for 3 years from this point. You can make it work with Cousins on a contract that averages $27-28M per season. Once it gets into the $30M range you have to start giving up pieces elsewhere.
Broken knees and potential rarely go as far...
Quote: @Purplewhizz said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ mgobluevikes said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
A lot of the resistance to signing Kirk Cousins takes some form of, "Too expensive" - this includes all forms of, "We won't be able to sign Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs/Barr etc. if we spend $30M at QB".
But didn't the Vikings' FO plan - and HOPE! - to be signing a QB to a huge multiyear deal for 2018?? Spielman's ideal scenario before last season must have been that Sam Bradford would play a full season at or near the level he showed in week 1 against New Orleans. What would be happening right now if that had played out, with Bradford healthy and coming off a 30+ TD season and playoff appearance? Well, some people might still be calling him Sleeves or grumbling about Teddy getting passed over unfairly, but there is no doubt the Vikings would be in the process of signing Bradford to a deal locking him here for the next 5 years for $125M or more. NO DOUBT.
So Spielman and Brzesinski already mapped out how to afford an expensive QB signing. Spotrac estimates the team has $53M open cap space for 2018 and that can increase (Sharrif Floyd is still listed for $6.7M..?) If the Vikings want Cousins and he is willing to come here for about $30M/year, it can be done, and without gutting the team. The money can work so it isn't about that.
convince me. do realistic contracts out for the next 2 years for our pending FAs, plus needed street FAs to fill holes for retirees or guys we let walk. leave money to cover your draft picks, and dont forget... we need to add 2 QBs this year, not just one and considering we havent had 1 QB for a whole season in a while, you better make your QB2 somebody you are willing to turn the season over to ( 3-5 million per year) in case your QB1 gets injured. and remember Rick likes to have a few million left over for emergencies. I have seen some speculation at 24 million (i think that was Gurus number) and he thought it should work, but at the 30 mark that keeps getting lofted out there, I dont see it happening. I cant figure out a way to continue to improve the rest of the roster through FA and Draft and spend 30 million a year on 1 QB.
I think the point you're missing is we would be in this position had any of our current QB's played great. So what is your point; that we should only have a tier 2 or lower QB on the roster because the rest of the team will suffer?
Like it or not this is the current market value of a franchise QB. If you think it's worth the risk of going into next season with a guy that hasn't played in 2 years, and a 55% chance that he'll fully recover, let alone develop into what we thought he could be, or going cheap on a guy with chronic knee issues, and also hasn't played in nearly a year, or rolling the dice on a guy who your coach claims to have had a horse shoe up his butt all season, you're going all in with a pair of 3's.
As Jor-El stated, Brez and Rick knew this day was coming and planned for it. With their track record with the cap you're really doubting their competence?
show me where it says they planned on spending 30 million? they were likely referring to spending in the 20 to 25 range for Sam, Teddy or other. 30 million is another monster all together. and yes, I will play my pair against what I read as a unpaired high card any day. who says all in? who says you would be all in with a prove it deal to sam or teddy? or even case for that matter.
You seem really hung-up on $30M. Were you similarly hung-up on $20M a couple of years ago?
yes, in context yes. If I could have gotten rogers brees or brady for 20M, I would likely have done so... Culter, fuck no. on the field I see the same shit from Cousins that I saw from Cutler (minus the arrogance) I see numbers that make people wet themselves, but in clutch moments, and when the team needs him to do something special, it just doesnt happen. i want my highest paid players in the league to be those guys, especially if they are on my favorite team. remember the hardons people had for cutler? there are other examples, i might be wrong, cousins might be the next brees, and I would then be wrong about him.
Quote: @"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
A lot of the resistance to signing Kirk Cousins takes some form of, "Too expensive" - this includes all forms of, "We won't be able to sign Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs/Barr etc. if we spend $30M at QB".
But didn't the Vikings' FO plan - and HOPE! - to be signing a QB to a huge multiyear deal for 2018?? Spielman's ideal scenario before last season must have been that Sam Bradford would play a full season at or near the level he showed in week 1 against New Orleans. What would be happening right now if that had played out, with Bradford healthy and coming off a 30+ TD season and playoff appearance? Well, some people might still be calling him Sleeves or grumbling about Teddy getting passed over unfairly, but there is no doubt the Vikings would be in the process of signing Bradford to a deal locking him here for the next 5 years for $125M or more. NO DOUBT.
So Spielman and Brzesinski already mapped out how to afford an expensive QB signing. Spotrac estimates the team has $53M open cap space for 2018 and that can increase (Sharrif Floyd is still listed for $6.7M..?) If the Vikings want Cousins and he is willing to come here for about $30M/year, it can be done, and without gutting the team. The money can work so it isn't about that.
convince me. do realistic contracts out for the next 2 years for our pending FAs, plus needed street FAs to fill holes for retirees or guys we let walk. leave money to cover your draft picks, and dont forget... we need to add 2 QBs this year, not just one and considering we havent had 1 QB for a whole season in a while, you better make your QB2 somebody you are willing to turn the season over to ( 3-5 million per year) in case your QB1 gets injured. and remember Rick likes to have a few million left over for emergencies. I have seen some speculation at 24 million (i think that was Gurus number) and he thought it should work, but at the 30 mark that keeps getting lofted out there, I dont see it happening. I cant figure out a way to continue to improve the rest of the roster through FA and Draft and spend 30 million a year on 1 QB.
I have laid out contracts for 3 years from this point. You can make it work with Cousins on a contract that averages $27-28M per season. Once it gets into the $30M range you have to start giving up pieces elsewhere.
ok, 27-28, I was thinking you were a little lower in your projections that you shared, but you even agree though that 30 becomes a breaking point in terms of being able to maintain a quality team around him.
and if 27-28 is the top of comfort, why IMO push it that close? is he really in that category? is he going to do twice as much as say Teddy or Sam would? I dont see it. but thats just me and we dont get a vote so I am not sure why some get so sensitive on the matter.
Do twice as much as Teddy or Sam if they can't play? umm yup.
It isn't the money that makes me uncomfortable, it isn't mine. But it is the percentage of the cap, where it puts the rest of the team, that makes me uncomfortable. As Jimmy sez, I don't think he is in the category of talent that makes it worth sacrificing elsewhere.
Here is the Cousins contract that would be fair for both sides. If he gets more money or a better deal elsewhere, this is the line you don't cross and let him walk away.
The below deal is for 5 years $140M ($28M AAV) with $66.5M (47.5%) guaranteed at the time of signing. The contract layout and cap hits are as follows:
2018 - Base Salary: $20,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $27,000,000 / Dead Money: ($60,000,000) / Savings: ($33,000,000)
2019 - Base Salary: $15,600,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $300,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $22,000,000 / Dead Money: ($33,100,000) / Savings: ($11,100,000)
2020 - Base Salary: $17,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $4,000,000 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $28,000,000 / Dead Money: ($18,000,000) / Savings: $10,000,000
2021 - Base Salary: $24,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $31,000,000 / Dead Money: ($12,000,000) / Savings: $19,000,000
2022 - Base Salary: $25,900,000 / Signing Bonus: $6,000,000 / Roster Bonus: $0 / Workout Bonus: $100,000 / Cap Hit: $32,000,000 / Dead Money: ($6,000,000) / Savings: $26,000,000
If possible the Vikings would be best served utilizing their abundance of cap space in 2018 to offer a semi front loaded deal with a reduced cap hit in year two. This would allow the Vikings to retain their core players. By year three of the deal you can re-evaluate Cousins value to the team and either opt to move on from him saving $10M against the cap or make future plans by re-negotiating the contracts of Griffen, Joseph, etc.. Last off-season those deals were constructed without long-term guarantees to facilitate restructure bonuses. This structure gives the Vikings safety and flexibility.
So the question becomes, why does Cousins sign this specific deal? First and foremost at a high level it makes him the highest paid player in NFL history by both average salary and total contract value. $66.5M in guarantees at signing also sets an NFL record. But cash flow is really what matters in these types of deals. In the first year of the contract Kirk would take home $51M which ties Matthew Stafford's deal a year ago and tops Garapollo's extension by $8.4M. By the end of year three Kirk would have taken home $89M which puts him slightly behind Stafford ($92M), but ahead of the extensions for both Carr and Garapollo. Ultimately this is window dressed as a market leading deal offers strong cash flow but still contains enough upside where it should regress back to the mean once Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Russell Wilson sign their upcoming extensions.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@"Geoff Nichols" said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
A lot of the resistance to signing Kirk Cousins takes some form of, "Too expensive" - this includes all forms of, "We won't be able to sign Kendricks/Hunter/Diggs/Barr etc. if we spend $30M at QB".
But didn't the Vikings' FO plan - and HOPE! - to be signing a QB to a huge multiyear deal for 2018?? Spielman's ideal scenario before last season must have been that Sam Bradford would play a full season at or near the level he showed in week 1 against New Orleans. What would be happening right now if that had played out, with Bradford healthy and coming off a 30+ TD season and playoff appearance? Well, some people might still be calling him Sleeves or grumbling about Teddy getting passed over unfairly, but there is no doubt the Vikings would be in the process of signing Bradford to a deal locking him here for the next 5 years for $125M or more. NO DOUBT.
So Spielman and Brzesinski already mapped out how to afford an expensive QB signing. Spotrac estimates the team has $53M open cap space for 2018 and that can increase (Sharrif Floyd is still listed for $6.7M..?) If the Vikings want Cousins and he is willing to come here for about $30M/year, it can be done, and without gutting the team. The money can work so it isn't about that.
convince me. do realistic contracts out for the next 2 years for our pending FAs, plus needed street FAs to fill holes for retirees or guys we let walk. leave money to cover your draft picks, and dont forget... we need to add 2 QBs this year, not just one and considering we havent had 1 QB for a whole season in a while, you better make your QB2 somebody you are willing to turn the season over to ( 3-5 million per year) in case your QB1 gets injured. and remember Rick likes to have a few million left over for emergencies. I have seen some speculation at 24 million (i think that was Gurus number) and he thought it should work, but at the 30 mark that keeps getting lofted out there, I dont see it happening. I cant figure out a way to continue to improve the rest of the roster through FA and Draft and spend 30 million a year on 1 QB.
I have laid out contracts for 3 years from this point. You can make it work with Cousins on a contract that averages $27-28M per season. Once it gets into the $30M range you have to start giving up pieces elsewhere.
ok, 27-28, I was thinking you were a little lower in your projections that you shared, but you even agree though that 30 becomes a breaking point in terms of being able to maintain a quality team around him.
and if 27-28 is the top of comfort, why IMO push it that close? is he really in that category? is he going to do twice as much as say Teddy or Sam would? I dont see it. but thats just me and we dont get a vote so I am not sure why some get so sensitive on the matter.
At $30M you start to lose flexibility. It seems silly that $2-3M annually could throw off the cap but once you factor in roll-over, increased guaranteed money, etc... It can start the snowball effect. I am not suggesting you'd lose a key defensive starter, but you'd have to start manipulating the cap (restructure bonuses, additional pay cuts, etc) to keep veteran depth on the roster. In essence the more money you start to add past $27M ties success more and more to the middle rounds of the draft. You're expected to hit on your 1st and 2nd round picks. But now you're going to be asked to draft your replacement for Jarius Wright, Latavius Murray, etc...
I added a contract I designed for Cousins above this. It's fair for both sides if he truly wants to win (Its always about the money). If he wouldn't take something comparable to that you're best walking away.
Quote: @mgobluevikes said:
Do twice as much as Teddy or Sam if they can't play? umm yup.
have a nice day.
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