Would you rather have:
a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?
(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)
Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).
Quote: @SmashmouthD said:
Would you rather have:
a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?
(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)
Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).
My fear about Keenum is that we will never see another season from him as effective as he was in 2017 (especially week 10-15).
My fear about Bridgewater is that we will never see anything better than 2015: 4 TDs, 4 INTs, and 2-4 record against opponents with winning records.
I don't think either is worth more than $10M/season.
Quote: @Jor-El said:
@ SmashmouthD said:
Would you rather have:
a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?
(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)
Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).
My fear about Keenum is that we will never see another season from him as effective as he was in 2017 (especially week 10-15).
My fear about Bridgewater is that we will never see anything better than 2015: 4 TDs, 4 INTs, and 2-4 record against opponents with winning records.
I don't think either is worth more than $10M/season.
what I dont understand is the belief that Teddy hit a ceiling at 25 with only 2 years experience on a pretty shitty offense, but somehow Cousins at 30 is going to get better after 5 years if he has better people around him and a better offense. I understand the concerns over Teddy and Sams knees, especially Sams, but if the kids has cleared all the medicals and Sugarman says he's good to go, I have to trust that, and I certainly saw an improved player in camp before last season knee injury so I am of the belief that Teddy is the choice on a prove it deal with incentives for Teddy if he is what they hope. ( I would still like to see Keenum or Sam agree to stay and compete as a quality second option... or first if they win the battle.)
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ SmashmouthD said:
Would you rather have:
a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?
(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)
Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).
My fear about Keenum is that we will never see another season from him as effective as he was in 2017 (especially week 10-15).
My fear about Bridgewater is that we will never see anything better than 2015: 4 TDs, 4 INTs, and 2-4 record against opponents with winning records.
I don't think either is worth more than $10M/season.
what I dont understand is the belief that Teddy hit a ceiling at 25 with only 2 years experience on a pretty shitty offense, but somehow Cousins at 30 is going to get better after 5 years if he has better people around him and a better offense. I understand the concerns over Teddy and Sams knees, especially Sams, but if the kids has cleared all the medicals and Sugarman says he's good to go, I have to trust that, and I certainly saw an improved player in camp before last season knee injury so I am of the belief that Teddy is the choice on a prove it deal with incentives for Teddy if he is what they hope. ( I would still like to see Keenum or Sam agree to stay and compete as a quality second option... or first if they win the battle.)
I was pimping Teddy to Minnesota before anyone else on this site.
But you're Projecting what he would do in this Offense
And why would Cousins need to improve? He's already had multiple 4,000 yard seasons. There's nothing to project with him nor does he need to "prove it" ala Teddy.
At the end of the day I prefer Teddy over Case and Sam. But he'll need to prove he can get this team 30 points when things aren't going the Defense's way. Kirk has already proved he can put points on the board.
Quote: @FSUVike said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ Jor-El said:
@ SmashmouthD said:
Would you rather have:
a) a $27 million-a-year Tier 1 QB; or,
b) an $18 million-a-year Tier 2 QB and $9 million to spend on a quality free agent at another position?
(yeah, okay, we can quibble about these rough numbers, but you get my point)
Me, personally, knowing that (b) is Keenum or Bridgewater, I'd pick (b).
My fear about Keenum is that we will never see another season from him as effective as he was in 2017 (especially week 10-15).
My fear about Bridgewater is that we will never see anything better than 2015: 4 TDs, 4 INTs, and 2-4 record against opponents with winning records.
I don't think either is worth more than $10M/season.
what I dont understand is the belief that Teddy hit a ceiling at 25 with only 2 years experience on a pretty shitty offense, but somehow Cousins at 30 is going to get better after 5 years if he has better people around him and a better offense. I understand the concerns over Teddy and Sams knees, especially Sams, but if the kids has cleared all the medicals and Sugarman says he's good to go, I have to trust that, and I certainly saw an improved player in camp before last season knee injury so I am of the belief that Teddy is the choice on a prove it deal with incentives for Teddy if he is what they hope. ( I would still like to see Keenum or Sam agree to stay and compete as a quality second option... or first if they win the battle.)
I was pimping Teddy to Minnesota before anyone else on this site.
But you're Projecting what he would do in this Offense
And why would Cousins need to improve? He's already had multiple 4,000 yard seasons. There's nothing to project with him nor does he need to "prove it" ala Teddy.
At the end of the day I prefer Teddy over Case and Sam. But he'll need to prove he can get this team 30 points when things aren't going the Defense's way. Kirk has already proved he can put points on the board.
I dont like Cousins consistency... he puts up big numbers, but is only about a 500 win % and from what Ive seen of him he is not clutch, when the pressure mounts he wilts. He will get big yards when the defense is playing loose, but I am not convinced that he will be able to improve on his WTF moments that can cost games. I dont watch him all that often, maybe twice a year, but I am betting that more people are in love with his stat line than what they have actually seen of his play. If we end up with him he will be a Viking and I will cheer, but I just cant seem to get my head around him being a 25-30 million dollar guy... just to much for the return imo, at least the difference of what I would expect from one of our existing guys in a similar system to what we had this year.
See, that's where I'm different. I watch all the teams. Just like Micky watched all the fighters while Rocky was running around partying.
Cousins isn't just a stat stuffer that racks up garbage time yardage. You've heard from Geoff and myself that he's a Tier 2 guy. The rest of the League believes that too or there wouldn't have been so much fascination with the ongoing drama in Washington.
We're not talking Ryan Fitzpatrick here. Kirk is in the same conversation as Matty Ice, Rivers, Stafford, Smith, Carr, etc.
Those guys don't come cheap. After watching back to back Super Bowls where teams combined for 62 and 74 points in games that weren't blowouts against Defenses that didn't exactly suck I'm just not seeing how the team can upgrade it's Defense to the point where Minnesota can win a title game 24-21.
And I just don't see any of the current QBs being able to consistently put 30+ on the board in the Playoffs.
Caveat: if Rick snags an upgrade at RT and upgrades at both Guard spots and adds another legit Pass Catching TE along with a bona fide replacement for Jet AND the new OC is hot ala Shurmer/McDaniel/Reich then I'm fine with going with any of the guys from last year.
That's a lot of Ifs, though.
Its kind of a moot point for most teams. Both Tier 1 and Tier 2 QBs are so rare that
most teams aren’t going to be choosing between multiple Tier 1 or 2 options. You either get an acceptable QB or you are
pretty much calling it a year before the season starts. That’s why you got Tier 2 guys getting paid
what Tier 1 guys should get paid.
I think Cousins is the safest option for winning a SB in the
next 2 years by providing functional QBing, but after that I think his contract
is going to weigh us down. He doesn’t excite
me. At this point I like the idea of
rolling with Bradford and/or Bridgewater and drafting a QB in the first if a
decent one is available. I’m less
excited about Keenum although I can see why people like him.
Mostly I want to have this decision be figured out, so we
can start moving forward.
WTF moments and legendary play is VERY closely related to dumb luck. A lot of tier 1 and tier 2 QB's are only separated by their propensity to have dumb luck follow them around. Just a couple more random, dumb luck plays and the careers of many tier 2 QB's would look very different. If Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins and Mathew Stafford got the same amount of dumb luck A. Rodgers has received, I think they'd be looked at as tier 1 QBs as well. All can chuck the rock for 4,000 plus yards and lead a team from behind. Dumb luck just hasn't shown it likes them as much on Hail Mary type plays as it does Rodgers. Eli Manning - was he a tier 1 QB or damn lucky tier 2 QB in his prime? I would have selected Payton over Eli, 100 times out of 100 times. To this day, I don't see Eli as ever being a tier 1 QB. But he has the "bling" in the argument to shut me up.
Maybe Cousins is a tier 2 QB or he's an unlucky tier 1 guy in a dis-functional organization? Today, paying $25-$27 million for a tier 2 QB seems like a gross overpayment. But you can almost guarantee that most of the tier 1 guys will be getting paid north of $30 million very soon. Then you can look at it and say Rodgers at $30-$32 million per vs. Cousins at $25-$27 million per. It just seems like we are stuck with the mindset that tier 1 guys make $25 million per and that's not going to change. It will and soon.
I think Cousins would flourish in the current Minnesota Vikings team and organization. Tough minded and productive. 9 games indoors. If you can maximize a guy like Keenum, you can certainly do the same with Cousins whose tool box is slightly better.
I just don't think it will happen.
Quote: @AllBS said:
WTF moments and legendary play is VERY closely related to dumb luck. A lot of tier 1 and tier 2 QB's are only separated by their propensity to have dumb luck follow them around. Just a couple more random, dumb luck plays and the careers of many tier 2 QB's would look very different. If Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins and Mathew Stafford got the same amount of dumb luck A. Rodgers has received, I think they'd be looked at as tier 1 QBs as well. All can chuck the rock for 4,000 plus yards and lead a team from behind. Dumb luck just hasn't shown it likes them as much on Hail Mary type plays as it does Rodgers. Eli Manning - was he a tier 1 QB or damn lucky tier 2 QB in his prime? I would have selected Payton over Eli, 100 times out of 100 times. To this day, I don't see Eli as ever being a tier 1 QB. But he has the "bling" in the argument to shut me up.
Maybe Cousins is a tier 2 QB or he's an unlucky tier 1 guy in a dis-functional organization? Today, paying $25-$27 million for a tier 2 QB seems like a gross overpayment. But you can almost guarantee that most of the tier 1 guys will be getting paid north of $30 million very soon. Then you can look at it and say Rodgers at $30-$32 million per vs. Cousins at $25-$27 million per. It just seems like we are stuck with the mindset that tier 1 guys make $25 million per and that's not going to change. It will and soon.
I disagree on the luck statement. I think guys get lucky for periods of time,
maybe even a full season, but guys who are consistently lucky make their own
luck. They make plays that may look
risky, but they know something that makes it is less risky than it seems, so
the odds are in their favor. Lesser QBs can’t
see all the risks, so the odds aren’t in their favor. Also teammates who believe in their QB perform
better. A lot of what made Favre so
great was that his teammates knew at any given moment he would launch the ball
their way and expect them to make the play, and they would rise to the occasion. With lesser QBs they will often loaf just a
little bit or be surprised when the ball comes their way and the pass is incomplete.
Totally agree about the salary cap though, but lesser QBs
will still get paid too much for their value.
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