One take on a Pats/Vikes Trade

[pattersaur]

Everything we've done the past two years was moving towards turning this team over to a rookie QB.  Purging our older/expensive veterans, structuring short-term deals to have a ton of cap space in 2025, not extending Kirk with a guaranteed deal, etc.  If Kwesi gets cold feet now or settles, he doesn't deserve the job.

I agree with Sticky that I don't think the Pats will trade their pick. Yes they have no LT or WRs but the Bears got Keenan Allen this offseason for a song. Tee Higgins is on the franchise tag and possibly available. LT is trickier but doable. QB? The shot at a franchise one just doesn't come along much so it's hard to see them foregoing that chance for the unknown.

Now from our perspective, I completely agree with Mad Gainz. This is KAM's moment and to leave this draft without a QB would be a disaster. Leaving the draft with a QB the coaches aren't in love with is better, but also courting disaster.

I hope we can get Maye. If not him then McCarthy. If not those two then I think seats start to get very warm around Winter Park.

[StickierBuns]

It's not passing on a QB. It's passing on QB3 to take QB4, 5 or 6 and a mega haul to go with it.

But that theory would mean that QB4 or QB5 would be just as good as QB3. Won't be the case as its not linear that way. The same way QB 1 and QB2 would be potentially substantially better than QB3.

[NFL Draft Guru]

Two totally different situations though. I think the Pats staying and taking a QB is the most likely. But not by much. And I think a lot of it depends on which one is available. 

I keep coming back to Mayo talking about their willingness to trade down and urging patience and all the holes they have to fill and building the roster "the right way." 

That team is a disaster. They desperately need a left tackle. They desperately need a receiver. They take a QB at three, it'll be Mac Jones all over again and everyone will get fired. If you take the deal, you can still take a QB at 11 or 23 or 34, or build up your roster and take one next year with two more 1st rounders. That's the right way IMO.

I am a little curious if they'll talk themselves out of Maye since he needs the developmental time to work on his mechanics. Or look into taking a haul from MN and getting back up to #4 for McCarthy. There is a funny world where they end up having Daniels, JJM as their QB1/2 since they could better handle the situation they're in.

[MAD GAINZ]

In theory MB, I don't disagree at all. But when is the last time a NFL team desperately needing a QB yet passed on one to move down?? Never? Somebody is going to have to get really stupid to move NE off that pick, and I mean really stupid. And I don't see that happening.

The Bears recently traded out of the #1 overall pick with Carolina and passed up the chance to take Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, or Anthony Richardson.  

Sure they already had a young QB in Fields on the roster... but they had two years of seeing him before they made that move and decided to stick with him.  They made the choice to start a guy who hadn't solidified himself as a franchise guy to continue to build their roster knowing they would have two first round picks (one potentially being an early pick from Carolina) the following year.

Not so different than the Patriots having Brissett as their "presumptive starter" and a young guy in Zappe who has started games.  Maybe they decide they package of picks the Vikings offer would help them build out their roster and they can grab a QB next year with two potentially early first round picks?

I think it's more likely the Patriots stick and pick at 3 but stranger things have happened.

[MaroonBells]

I am a little curious if they'll talk themselves out of Maye since he needs the developmental time to work on his mechanics. Or look into taking a haul from MN and getting back up to #4 for McCarthy. There is a funny world where they end up having Daniels, JJM as their QB1/2 since they could better handle the situation they're in.

Not sure JJM is better prepared for that mess than Maye. But I do tend to think that if Daniels is there, they take him. If not, they're open for business. I think we have to remember that while the Vikings seem high on Maye due to his fit in MN, there are several in the draft community, and likely a few teams too, who have serious questions about him.

[StickierBuns]

The Bears recently traded out of the #1 overall pick with Carolina and passed up the chance to take Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, or Anthony Richardson.  

Sure they already had a young QB in Fields on the roster... but they had two years of seeing him before they made that move and decided to stick with him.  They made the choice to start a guy who hadn't solidified himself as a franchise guy to continue to build their roster knowing they would have two first round picks (one potentially being an early pick from Carolina) the following year.

Not so different than the Patriots having Brissett as their "presumptive starter" and a young guy in Zappe who has started games.  Maybe they decide they package of picks the Vikings offer would help them build out their roster and they can grab a QB next year with two potentially early first round picks?

I think it's more likely the Patriots stick and pick at 3 but stranger things have happened.

I just don't find these as legit examples. Chicago couldn't give up on Fields without another year of review considering the comp they gave up to get him. The Patriot org. knows that neither Brissett nor Zappe are any kind of answer. So for me, and its just my opinion, but stranger things have NOT happened in a situation where a franchise needs a QB desperately but moves down and out of the spot. Not historically.

[NFL Draft Guru]

Not sure JJM is better prepared for that mess than Maye. But I do tend to think that if Daniels is there, they take him. If not, they're open for business. I think we have to remember that while the Vikings seem high on Maye due to his fit in MN, there are several in the draft community, and likely a few teams too, who have serious questions about him.

He's basically a higher ceiling version of Jordan Love in many ways. In the end Love dropped late into the 1st since there were such polarizing opinions. Maye won't drop that far, but I can envision scenarios where he falls outside of the top 3 for sure.

[purplefaithful]

I have no idea how NE stacked their QB board. And as @MB points out that could be a very key determinant if they decide to move or not.

In the end, I think they stick and pick

The good news is all of this will unfold in the first 30 minutes of the draft, no waiting around.

[1VikesFan]

It's not passing on a QB. It's passing on QB3 to take QB4, 5 or 6 and a mega haul to go with it.

Agree, if they aren't sold on whichever of the top 3 remain I could definitely see them moving down for 3 first round picks.

[MaroonBells]

But that theory would mean that QB4 or QB5 would be just as good as QB3. Won't be the case as its not linear that way. The same way QB 1 and QB2 would be potentially substantially better than QB3.

It doesn't mean QB 4 or 5 would be just as good as 3. It means that in a class where QBs 3-6 are fairly close together, QB 4 or 5 plus a starting WR or LT could be seen as a better outcome than just QB3. 

See, we’re all hyper-focused on QB because that’s our missing piece on offense. That’s all we’re thinking about. That’s not the case for other teams. It’s certainly not the case for the Patriots. 

It also assumes consensus is right and that no team has a different opinion from consensus. We've already seen several in the draft community come out and say they have serious questions about Maye. Simms ranked him below Nix, Penix and McCarthy. He's not alone in that. I've heard others say that McCarthy doesn't even belong in the 1st round. It should not be surprising if a few teams in the top 10 shared that opinion. And then when you factor in scheme fit, you get even more variation.