Quote: @pattersaur said:
Age 35/36 is where decline typically starts to accelerate for even the best QBs. Of course there are outliers but not many. The Vikings would be insane to give Kirk a long term deal at this stage.
The available QB FAs next year (other than Kirk) are complete garbage so I agree it's a precarious spot but is giving Kirk 3-4 more years fully guaranteed any better? Unless he sets the world on fire this year-- think Rodgers' recent MVP seasons-- then I'd say no.
The outliers are the ones who decline at 35/36. I've done a decent amount of looking into this topic and if you throw out Matt Ryan, who declined a little earlier than most, and Brady, who declined much later than most, 37/38 seems to be where most QBs fall off a cliff.
No, the Vikings should not give Cousins a long term deal, but I don't think anyone's arguing that we should.
Quote: @JimmyinSD said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ pattersaur said:
Age 35/36 is where decline typically starts to accelerate for even the best QBs. Of course there are outliers but not many. The Vikings would be insane to give Kirk a long term deal at this stage.
The available QB FAs next year (other than Kirk) are complete garbage so I agree it's a precarious spot but is giving Kirk 3-4 more years fully guaranteed any better? Unless he sets the world on fire this year-- think Rodgers' recent MVP seasons-- then I'd say no.
I think this is exactly why the Vikings are hedging their bets on Cousins and letting this play out without just giving him an extension. Age matters and is a factor. Ideally the Vikings would like to get off the Cousins rollercoaster but can't until they are somehow able to get someone else in the pipeline. If the Vikings really wanted Cousins and thought he was the answer in getting them to the Super Bowl, then they'd already have him locked in on an extension. The fact that they haven't is telling
Here's my issue though, say he has an average year, the Vikings don't make the playoffs (possible), and just let him walk or he gets a better offer elsewhere, then the only benefit towards the Vikings is cap relief and a late 3rd or 4th round comp pick. If he is worth more then that NOW to a team like the 49ers or Redskins, then why would you not do that? First round pick, second round pick, maybe more. Yes we take a tank year and sign someone off the street like Carson Wentz to compete with Hall, but we acquire more high value assets that would go towards our future. I just really see no benefit in simply letting Cousins play this out when in reality if they really wanted him and thought he was the answer he'd already be signed on an extension. Maybe we see how the first part of the season goes and if they don't like what they see or things aren't going well, they trade him then? IMO it's a very risky play by the Vikings just letting this thing play out but I'd bet it has a lot to do with the Wilfs.
Nobody is going to give you anything for Kirk mod season, its his brain that brings the value and with no offseason to learn a new O amd to get reps in with new targets, that would be a complete waste of resources 5 or 6 games into a season. The longer we hold onto him in your scenario, the less sense it makes for a team to trade for him.
I think we could get something but you are probably right in that the longer he is retained, the less we'd get in return in trade value
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
@ JimmyinSD said:
@ supafreak84 said:
@ pattersaur said:
Age 35/36 is where decline typically starts to accelerate for even the best QBs. Of course there are outliers but not many. The Vikings would be insane to give Kirk a long term deal at this stage.
The available QB FAs next year (other than Kirk) are complete garbage so I agree it's a precarious spot but is giving Kirk 3-4 more years fully guaranteed any better? Unless he sets the world on fire this year-- think Rodgers' recent MVP seasons-- then I'd say no.
I think this is exactly why the Vikings are hedging their bets on Cousins and letting this play out without just giving him an extension. Age matters and is a factor. Ideally the Vikings would like to get off the Cousins rollercoaster but can't until they are somehow able to get someone else in the pipeline. If the Vikings really wanted Cousins and thought he was the answer in getting them to the Super Bowl, then they'd already have him locked in on an extension. The fact that they haven't is telling
Here's my issue though, say he has an average year, the Vikings don't make the playoffs (possible), and just let him walk or he gets a better offer elsewhere, then the only benefit towards the Vikings is cap relief and a late 3rd or 4th round comp pick. If he is worth more then that NOW to a team like the 49ers or Redskins, then why would you not do that? First round pick, second round pick, maybe more. Yes we take a tank year and sign someone off the street like Carson Wentz to compete with Hall, but we acquire more high value assets that would go towards our future. I just really see no benefit in simply letting Cousins play this out when in reality if they really wanted him and thought he was the answer he'd already be signed on an extension. Maybe we see how the first part of the season goes and if they don't like what they see or things aren't going well, they trade him then? IMO it's a very risky play by the Vikings just letting this thing play out but I'd bet it has a lot to do with the Wilfs.
Nobody is going to give you anything for Kirk mod season, its his brain that brings the value and with no offseason to learn a new O amd to get reps in with new targets, that would be a complete waste of resources 5 or 6 games into a season. The longer we hold onto him in your scenario, the less sense it makes for a team to trade for him.
I think we could get something but you are probably right in that the longer he is retained, the less we'd get in return in trade value
I meant nothing more than we would get by letting him play out the year and then walk, of course a regular 3rd rounder is better than a compensatory pick and the comp picks can be negated by our own free agent signings.
If the new regime saw him as the future he would already have a deal. And there would not have been some of the oblique comments from them about his ceiling which have periodically come out.
Teams aren't going to line up to pay him even if he has a good year. His age is a factor--the cliff could come at any time. His metrics consistently place him 10-15th in a league where you need top 5-8 qb's to really contend. At best he'd be a placeholder for a team looking to develop a young guy but that scenario barely exists any more. Or a vet in a scenario where a team just needs a guy because their other options are limited or haven't planned out.
But nobody sees him the way Rick did 5 years ago. Most NFL GM's didn't at the time either but Rick was, well just being Rick, sticking a wet finger in the wind and paying 90 million bucks to find out which way it was blowing.
He could get a deal somewhere but not likely for more than whatever the Vikings would offer him and that won't be top dollar imo. Dialing for Rick's fantasy dollars has been replaced by 'KAM only gonna pay what the spreadsheet sez'.
I see them focused on finding a QBOTF and if Kirk wants a deal to be here in 2024 he could likely have one if they find that guy in the next draft. I suppose if they can't they might give him another 2-3 year hitch and just grin and bear it but I have to think that's just sort of career suicide for KOC/KAM. As I said, they've made comments where one can read between the lines and know they see him for what he is--a guy with nice stats but a modest ceiling when push comes to shove.
The only scenario I see that gains him the leverage people are fantasizing about is winning the SB, which given our holes on defense, question mark batch of draftees, and his lack of playoff success after a decade plus, seems extremely unlikely.
I suspect they’ve been talking all off-season. There’s no guarantee his replacement is on the roster and even if there’s a potential starter, he’s likely two years away from being ready. So in my opinion, it would be smart to add a year onto his contract.
I’m guessing Kirk wants more than an extra year on any new contract. He undoubtedly has faith in his ability to keep playing at a high level and would love to finish out here, probably 4 years from now. From the Vikings standpoint, as I said, a little extra time makes sense, but the risk of going any further is pretty high considering how fast a guys arm can go when he hits the age Kirk is already at. Although his arm appears to still be it’s usual upper level of the league velocity, we’ve all seen even bigger arms than his crater in the span of one year.
He may be saying this, but I think they continue to talk up until the season starts. It makes sense from a cap perspective to get something in place so Kwesi can plan out contracts for JJ and a couple of others. To lock down the spot with a known number, it helps a lot in designing the roster.
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
I suspect they’ve been talking all off-season. There’s no guarantee his replacement is on the roster and even if there’s a potential starter, he’s likely two years away from being ready. So in my opinion, it would be smart to add a year onto his contract.
I’m guessing Kirk wants more than an extra year on any new contract. He undoubtedly has faith in his ability to keep playing at a high level and would love to finish out here, probably 4 years from now. From the Vikings standpoint, as I said, a little extra time makes sense, but the risk of going any further is pretty high considering how fast a guys arm can go when he hits the age Kirk is already at. Although his arm appears to still be it’s usual upper level of the league velocity, we’ve all seen even bigger arms than his crater in the span of one year.
He may be saying this, but I think they continue to talk up until the season starts. It makes sense from a cap perspective to get something in place so Kwesi can plan out contracts for JJ and a couple of others. To lock down the spot with a known number, it helps a lot in designing the roster.
I thought Kirk was integral to anything they did about JJ or TJH. Now I'm not so sure.
There was a lot of moves made this off-season of which Cook was the most painful imo.
Roster change has really accelerated.
Quote: @Havoc1649 said:
I suspect they’ve been talking all off-season. There’s no guarantee his replacement is on the roster and even if there’s a potential starter, he’s likely two years away from being ready. So in my opinion, it would be smart to add a year onto his contract.
I’m guessing Kirk wants more than an extra year on any new contract. He undoubtedly has faith in his ability to keep playing at a high level and would love to finish out here, probably 4 years from now. From the Vikings standpoint, as I said, a little extra time makes sense, but the risk of going any further is pretty high considering how fast a guys arm can go when he hits the age Kirk is already at. Although his arm appears to still be it’s usual upper level of the league velocity, we’ve all seen even bigger arms than his crater in the span of one year.
He may be saying this, but I think they continue to talk up until the season starts. It makes sense from a cap perspective to get something in place so Kwesi can plan out contracts for JJ and a couple of others. To lock down the spot with a known number, it helps a lot in designing the roster.
I think what Cousins says is true. They're not talking and won't talk until March.
I think Kirk is plenty OK betting on himself, and the team is OK letting it play out, with zero money on the books after 2023. I think there's a benefit for both sides in this, and the only downside to the Vikings is what PF mentioned: Vikings might have to pay Cousins a lot more in '24 than they would have in '23. But when you really think about it, what's a couple million more when you're talking $40M? Especially given what Cousins and the Vikings would have done to trigger an extension.
Best case scenario is that Kirk explodes his second season in the offense, he's an MVP candidate and the Vikings go deep into the playoffs. In which case the Vikings give him a two year extension for whatever ridiculous number the market dictates. However, the Vikings use future picks to move up in the draft for their QBOTF. A year later the Vikings have a young QB ready to take the reigns and a veteran QB who is now a very tradable asset.
Worst case scenarios that he doesn't. Cousins gets hurt, or he just has a bad year for whatever reason. Vikings have no financial commitment to him. He departs via free agency and the Vikings go into the draft with their dick hanging out--every team in the NFL is going to know they're drafting a QB. Vikings would be wise to bring in a bridge QB.
The constant between the two is the Vikings drafting a QB in '24 draft. I'm convinced they will and they'll move into the top 5 or 10 to do it.
Quote: @purplefaithful said:
What I think I think...
KC should have a stellar year with this cast and yr 2 in the system
Should result in an exorbitant amount of negotiation leverage
I think the Vikings are going to wish they got a deal done this year.
I get the feeling that everyone would be happy if that is the situation. If the Vikes have a stellar year, they will be more than willing to throw money at Cousins for another year.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ Havoc1649 said:
I suspect they’ve been talking all off-season. There’s no guarantee his replacement is on the roster and even if there’s a potential starter, he’s likely two years away from being ready. So in my opinion, it would be smart to add a year onto his contract.
I’m guessing Kirk wants more than an extra year on any new contract. He undoubtedly has faith in his ability to keep playing at a high level and would love to finish out here, probably 4 years from now. From the Vikings standpoint, as I said, a little extra time makes sense, but the risk of going any further is pretty high considering how fast a guys arm can go when he hits the age Kirk is already at. Although his arm appears to still be it’s usual upper level of the league velocity, we’ve all seen even bigger arms than his crater in the span of one year.
He may be saying this, but I think they continue to talk up until the season starts. It makes sense from a cap perspective to get something in place so Kwesi can plan out contracts for JJ and a couple of others. To lock down the spot with a known number, it helps a lot in designing the roster.
I think what Cousins says is true. They're not talking and won't talk until March.
I think Kirk is plenty OK betting on himself, and the team is OK letting it play out, with zero money on the books after 2023. I think there's a benefit for both sides in this, and the only downside to the Vikings is what PF mentioned: Vikings might have to pay Cousins a lot more in '24 than they would have in '23. But when you really think about it, what's a couple million more when you're talking $40M? Especially given what Cousins and the Vikings would have done to trigger an extension.
Best case scenario is that Kirk explodes his second season in the offense, he's an MVP candidate and the Vikings go deep into the playoffs. In which case the Vikings give him a two year extension for whatever ridiculous number the market dictates. However, the Vikings use future picks to move up in the draft for their QBOTF. A year later the Vikings have a young QB ready to take the reigns and a veteran QB who is now a very tradable asset.
Worst case scenarios that he doesn't. Cousins gets hurt, or he just has a bad year for whatever reason. Vikings have no financial commitment to him. He departs via free agency and the Vikings go into the draft with their dick hanging out--every team in the NFL is going to know they're drafting a QB. Vikings would be wise to bring in a bridge QB.
The constant between the two is the Vikings drafting a QB in '24 draft. I'm convinced they will and they'll move into the top 5 or 10 to do it.
That's the big gamble in sticking with Cousins as we've elected to do and letting this play out. I still go back though to the fact that if the Vikings really wanted him and thought he was "the guy" he'd already be signed to a 3 or 4 year deal. They are hedging their bets in case he busts or age catches up and his play falls off a cliff. They don't really want him as part of the "competitive rebuild" so I go back to the old Belichick mantra of better to trade them a year early for maximum value, then a year too late when he walks in free agency and we get nothing for him. I think losing Cook is huge, and if we trade Hunter while retaining Cousins (as we have)...then isn't it almost like "yes we are tanking, but still trying to be kinda competitive?" What is the purpose of that kind of half ass philosophy? The NFL world is looking at us like, nobody knows what the hell we are doing or trying to accomplish moving forward.
But this is what happens when you have owners (who are good owners) but are really just fans who don't know anything about football and have implemented these "competitive mandates" instead of just letting the people they hire build this thing how they think it best to do so. This is why Poles is not our GM and why we hired a stooge with extremely minimal experience, who also happened to fit the NFL's progressive agenda. I don't think any seasoned personnel guy would have taken this job having to deal with these mandates from ownership and the Kirk Cousins contract ccarousel. That's like trying to build a winner and revamp the roster with one arm tied behind your back.
Quote: @supafreak84 said:
@ MaroonBells said:
@ Havoc1649 said:
I suspect they’ve been talking all off-season. There’s no guarantee his replacement is on the roster and even if there’s a potential starter, he’s likely two years away from being ready. So in my opinion, it would be smart to add a year onto his contract.
I’m guessing Kirk wants more than an extra year on any new contract. He undoubtedly has faith in his ability to keep playing at a high level and would love to finish out here, probably 4 years from now. From the Vikings standpoint, as I said, a little extra time makes sense, but the risk of going any further is pretty high considering how fast a guys arm can go when he hits the age Kirk is already at. Although his arm appears to still be it’s usual upper level of the league velocity, we’ve all seen even bigger arms than his crater in the span of one year.
He may be saying this, but I think they continue to talk up until the season starts. It makes sense from a cap perspective to get something in place so Kwesi can plan out contracts for JJ and a couple of others. To lock down the spot with a known number, it helps a lot in designing the roster.
I think what Cousins says is true. They're not talking and won't talk until March.
I think Kirk is plenty OK betting on himself, and the team is OK letting it play out, with zero money on the books after 2023. I think there's a benefit for both sides in this, and the only downside to the Vikings is what PF mentioned: Vikings might have to pay Cousins a lot more in '24 than they would have in '23. But when you really think about it, what's a couple million more when you're talking $40M? Especially given what Cousins and the Vikings would have done to trigger an extension.
Best case scenario is that Kirk explodes his second season in the offense, he's an MVP candidate and the Vikings go deep into the playoffs. In which case the Vikings give him a two year extension for whatever ridiculous number the market dictates. However, the Vikings use future picks to move up in the draft for their QBOTF. A year later the Vikings have a young QB ready to take the reigns and a veteran QB who is now a very tradable asset.
Worst case scenarios that he doesn't. Cousins gets hurt, or he just has a bad year for whatever reason. Vikings have no financial commitment to him. He departs via free agency and the Vikings go into the draft with their dick hanging out--every team in the NFL is going to know they're drafting a QB. Vikings would be wise to bring in a bridge QB.
The constant between the two is the Vikings drafting a QB in '24 draft. I'm convinced they will and they'll move into the top 5 or 10 to do it.
That's the big gamble in sticking with Cousins as we've elected to do and letting this play out. I still go back though to the fact that if the Vikings really wanted him and thought he was "the guy" he'd already be signed to a 3 or 4 year deal. They are hedging their bets in case he busts or age catches up and his play falls off a cliff. They don't really want him as part of the "competitive rebuild" so I go back to the old Belichick mantra of better to trade them a year early for maximum value, then a year too late when he walks in free agency and we get nothing for him. I think losing Cook is huge, and if we trade Hunter while retaining Cousins (as we have)...then isn't it almost like "yes we are tanking, but still trying to be kinda competitive?" What is the purpose of that kind of half ass philosophy? The NFL world is looking at us like, nobody knows what the hell we are doing or trying to accomplish moving forward.
But this is what happens when you have owners (who are good owners) but are really just fans who don't know anything about football and have implemented these "competitive mandates" instead of just letting the people they hire build this thing how they think it best to do so. This is why Poles is not our GM and why we hired a stooge with extremely minimal experience, who also happened to fit the NFL's progressive agenda. I don't think any seasoned personnel guy would have taken this job having to deal with these mandates from ownership and the Kirk Cousins contract ccarousel. That's like trying to build a winner and revamp the roster with one arm tied behind your back.
It's a competitive rebuild. You know what that means, right? The media clearly doesn't, because they've been programmed to see only in binary. One, zero, left, right, black, white, etc. You put something in between and they go haywire. "It's half ass!" LOL
But good teams have been doing rolling rebuilds for decades, typically met with the same confusion by the media. It just means there is enough good, young talent on the team to rule out a tear down, but there is also some aging players whose performance and outlook no longer match what we pay them.
I've said it before, but you're going to wake up in a year or two and the team will have been completely rebuilt and you'll still be asking to see the plan.
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