04-28-2022, 02:04 PM
Quote: @AGRforever said:
It's a lottery ticket@minny65 said:
Reminder/bump:
And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.
That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players.
Overall, only about two dozen players every draft will go on to have significant careers performing at a high level. That’s not a lot - less than one genuinely good player per team each year.
2021 draft looks pretty darn good to me but 2 years early - I really like Darrisaw and Bynum looks to be a good starter
2020 draft looks excellent - JJ, Cleveland, Dantzler, Woonum - going into year 3
2019 does not look good at all - Bradbury, Irv, Mattison, Udoh - going into year 4 (consensus earliest judgment year)
2018 around average maybe below - O'Neill and Conklin
2017 not good below average - only Cook
2016 - very bad - not a single player with the team - treadwell year with only Mac with any sort of contribution
2015 - undoubtedly the best draft in the Spelly era - Waynes, Kendricks, Hunter, Diggs
So, you do have to let things brew for a couple seasons to get a true read. I want to point that out the day of the draft so that everyone doesn't think our new regime are geniuses or idiots because it will take years to figure out (usually - I'm not talking about Redskins/Raiders..we know they are idiots). The GM role has at least a whole season if not 2 before you can get a read while a HC has about half a season. A players has about 3 years as noted.
Just trying to manage expectations
Isn't 2015 wild. From the 4th round (being the best player) and counting backwards to 1st they progressively got less talented.
Not to take away anything from any of the 4 listed. But Diggs has had the best career of all of them. Hunter when HEALTHY is a beast. Kendricks has been nothing but solid and Waynes was decent for us and a disaster for Cincy.
And we're worried about picking 12th or trading up, or down or whatever to get whichever player ranked above another. When it all boils down its a crapshoot.
