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Just a reminder of the Lottery for Tomorrow night!
To read the full article it is on the left border of our blog under Viking News dated 4/26.
NFL Draft Pick Bust Rate Remains Very HighMore analytics haven’t increased the success rate
By wludford@wludford Apr 26, 2022, 8:53pm CDT Kirby Lee-USA TODAY SportsIt’s that time of year when visions of future All-Pros are dancing in the heads of NFL fans - Vikings fans included. The NFL Draft is just a couple days away, and projecting how good draft picks will be based on their college highlight reels, or RAS stats, or simply the hype behind them is difficult to avoid.
But the reality is that most draft picks don’t work out. Whether they’re busts, didn’t live up to their draft position, had injury or off-field issues, didn’t do much to move the dial, or never played much, most draft picks turn out to be some level of disappointment, or don’t make much of a difference in the team’s success.
Five years ago I did a piece detailing how most draft picks are busts, based on a study of 1996-2016 draft picks. The results, which are based on the Pro Football Reference AV metric, are sobering: - 16.7% didn’t play for the team that drafted them
- 37% were considered useless. They either didn’t play much or didn’t make the team.
- 15.3% were considered poor. Had limited playing time and didn’t do well in the time they had.
- 10.5% were considered average. These are mediocre players that had starts or significant contributions over 2-3 years.
- 12.3% were considered good. These could be mediocre or average players that were multi-year starters, Pat Elflein or Christian Ponder for example, or perhaps some genuinely good players that didn’t last all that long for the team that drafted them- Sidney Rice for example. This is where the AV metric can over-rate a player based on the number of starts, rather than their performance while on the field.
- 6.9% were considered Great. This category is the first that includes undeniably good draft picks. In order to be considered great, they would’ve had to play for the team that drafted them into a second contract, and also performed well over those years.
- 1% were considered legendary. These are future Hall of Famers, multi-year All-Pros among the best in the league for most of their relatively long careers.
And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.
That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players.
Overall, only about two dozen players every draft will go on to have significant careers performing at a high level. That’s not a lot - less than one genuinely good player per team each year.
Sobering is right. All you have to do is look at the 1st round redrafts that come out a few years later. It's ridiculous how many day two and three players there are, and how many of the original 1st rounders that are nowhere to be found.
It's why it's pretty useless to wring hands too much over our current slot and how we seem to be out of position for Hamilton, Sauce and Stingley. It's also why I tend to prefer "safe" players with low bust factors.
It's also why it really shouldn't surprise anyone too much if a guy like McDuffie or Elam or Cine turn out better than the handful of guys at the top.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
Sobering is right. All you have to do is look at the 1st round redrafts that come out a few years later. It's ridiculous how many day two and three players there are, and how many of the original 1st rounders that are nowhere to be found.
It's why it's pretty useless to wring hands too much over our current slot and how we seem to be out of position for Hamilton, Sauce and Stingley. It's also why I tend to prefer "safe" players with low bust factors.
It's also why it really shouldn't surprise anyone too much if a guy like McDuffie or Elam or Cine turn out better than the handful of guys at the top.
Agree all around.
I am trying to manage the boards expectations. Ha ha. Not everyone we draft is steal or a bum 
The only exception to my whole draft lottery perspective is the QB position as we have discussed in great length.
Quote: @minny65 said:
@ MaroonBells said:
Sobering is right. All you have to do is look at the 1st round redrafts that come out a few years later. It's ridiculous how many day two and three players there are, and how many of the original 1st rounders that are nowhere to be found.
It's why it's pretty useless to wring hands too much over our current slot and how we seem to be out of position for Hamilton, Sauce and Stingley. It's also why I tend to prefer "safe" players with low bust factors.
It's also why it really shouldn't surprise anyone too much if a guy like McDuffie or Elam or Cine turn out better than the handful of guys at the top.
Agree all around.
I am trying to manage the boards expectations. Ha ha. Not everyone we draft is steal or a bum
The only exception to my whole draft lottery perspective is the QB position as we have discussed in great length.
I consider myself to be a fairly reasonable fan and I will absolutely give any player we draft until halftime of the first game before deciding if he’s a steal or bum. I will then tether myself to said decision for the remainder of the player’s Vikings tenure no matter what. In the event the player eventually leaves our team via trade or free agency, I will automatically reverse my original opinion. Like I said, I’m very reasonable.
Quote: @pattersaur said:
@ minny65 said:
@ MaroonBells said:
Sobering is right. All you have to do is look at the 1st round redrafts that come out a few years later. It's ridiculous how many day two and three players there are, and how many of the original 1st rounders that are nowhere to be found.
It's why it's pretty useless to wring hands too much over our current slot and how we seem to be out of position for Hamilton, Sauce and Stingley. It's also why I tend to prefer "safe" players with low bust factors.
It's also why it really shouldn't surprise anyone too much if a guy like McDuffie or Elam or Cine turn out better than the handful of guys at the top.
Agree all around.
I am trying to manage the boards expectations. Ha ha. Not everyone we draft is steal or a bum
The only exception to my whole draft lottery perspective is the QB position as we have discussed in great length.
I consider myself to be a fairly reasonable fan and I will absolutely give any player we draft until halftime of the first game before deciding if he’s a steal or bum. I will then tether myself to said decision for the remainder of the player’s Vikings tenure no matter what. In the event the player eventually leaves our team via trade or free agency, I will automatically reverse my original opinion. Like I said, I’m very reasonable.
You jest but it has happened on this very site
Quote: @minny65 said:
@ MaroonBells said:
Sobering is right. All you have to do is look at the 1st round redrafts that come out a few years later. It's ridiculous how many day two and three players there are, and how many of the original 1st rounders that are nowhere to be found.
It's why it's pretty useless to wring hands too much over our current slot and how we seem to be out of position for Hamilton, Sauce and Stingley. It's also why I tend to prefer "safe" players with low bust factors.
It's also why it really shouldn't surprise anyone too much if a guy like McDuffie or Elam or Cine turn out better than the handful of guys at the top.
Agree all around.
I am trying to manage the boards expectations. Ha ha. Not everyone we draft is steal or a bum
The only exception to my whole draft lottery perspective is the QB position as we have discussed in great length.
Facts.
Quote: @MaroonBells said:
@ minny65 said:
@ MaroonBells said:
Sobering is right. All you have to do is look at the 1st round redrafts that come out a few years later. It's ridiculous how many day two and three players there are, and how many of the original 1st rounders that are nowhere to be found.
It's why it's pretty useless to wring hands too much over our current slot and how we seem to be out of position for Hamilton, Sauce and Stingley. It's also why I tend to prefer "safe" players with low bust factors.
It's also why it really shouldn't surprise anyone too much if a guy like McDuffie or Elam or Cine turn out better than the handful of guys at the top.
Agree all around.
I am trying to manage the boards expectations. Ha ha. Not everyone we draft is steal or a bum
The only exception to my whole draft lottery perspective is the QB position as we have discussed in great length.
Facts.
Yep, very true. I've been upset by picks in the past but I have to remind myself that you never know. In the last 5-7 years the only time I was actually like who tf is this bum is when we took Mo Boehringer. It was only in the 6th round so I wasnt too mad, but I remember laughing saying we drafted a guy from Germany?!?!
I always love the media draftniks that knock teams for the 'value' of the pick in retrospect. "Yes, Player A has performed well for them but they could have gotten him two rounds later". Or "While its true that Player B has exceeded expectations in the trade, they really should have given up a 5th rounder instead of a 4th". Its like STFU. Please.
Reminder/bump:
And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.
That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players.
Overall, only about two dozen players every draft will go on to have significant careers performing at a high level. That’s not a lot - less than one genuinely good player per team each year.
2021 draft looks pretty darn good to me but 2 years early - I really like Darrisaw and Bynum looks to be a good starter
2020 draft looks excellent - JJ, Cleveland, Dantzler, Woonum - going into year 3
2019 does not look good at all - Bradbury, Irv, Mattison, Udoh - going into year 4 (consensus earliest judgment year)
2018 around average maybe below - O'Neill and Conklin
2017 not good below average - only Cook
2016 - very bad - not a single player with the team - treadwell year with only Mac with any sort of contribution
2015 - undoubtedly the best draft in the Spelly era - Waynes, Kendricks, Hunter, Diggs
So, you do have to let things brew for a couple seasons to get a true read. I want to point that out the day of the draft so that everyone doesn't think our new regime are geniuses or idiots because it will take years to figure out (usually - I'm not talking about Redskins/Raiders..we know they are idiots). The GM role has at least a whole season if not 2 before you can get a read while a HC has about half a season. A players has about 3 years as noted.
Just trying to manage expectations
Quote: @minny65 said:
Reminder/bump:
And so only about 8% of draft picks are players that really make much of a difference beyond replacement value, and only about 30% see much playing time or make a significant contribution to the team.
That means among the 260 or so drafted players each year, only about 2-3 will have Hall of Fame caliber careers, and only about 21 will be undisputedly good picks- and very good but not HoF caliber players.
Overall, only about two dozen players every draft will go on to have significant careers performing at a high level. That’s not a lot - less than one genuinely good player per team each year.
2021 draft looks pretty darn good to me but 2 years early - I really like Darrisaw and Bynum looks to be a good starter
2020 draft looks excellent - JJ, Cleveland, Dantzler, Woonum - going into year 3
2019 does not look good at all - Bradbury, Irv, Mattison, Udoh - going into year 4 (consensus earliest judgment year)
2018 around average maybe below - O'Neill and Conklin
2017 not good below average - only Cook
2016 - very bad - not a single player with the team - treadwell year with only Mac with any sort of contribution
2015 - undoubtedly the best draft in the Spelly era - Waynes, Kendricks, Hunter, Diggs
So, you do have to let things brew for a couple seasons to get a true read. I want to point that out the day of the draft so that everyone doesn't think our new regime are geniuses or idiots because it will take years to figure out (usually - I'm not talking about Redskins/Raiders..we know they are idiots). The GM role has at least a whole season if not 2 before you can get a read while a HC has about half a season. A players has about 3 years as noted.
Just trying to manage expectations
Isn't 2015 wild. From the 4th round (being the best player) and counting backwards to 1st they progressively got less talented.
Not to take away anything from any of the 4 listed. But Diggs has had the best career of all of them. Hunter when HEALTHY is a beast. Kendricks has been nothing but solid and Waynes was decent for us and a disaster for Cincy.
And we're worried about picking 12th or trading up, or down or whatever to get whichever player ranked above another. When it all boils down its a crapshoot.
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